I love to run scenarios in my head, so let’s sketch out various possible outcomes to what’s going on with Trump and see how close we get to what really happens.
1. The Wag The Dog
In this scenario, we’re at war with the DPRK by August and along the way Trump fires who he needs to fire and pardon’s who he needs to pardon and the whole Stormy Daniels problem vanishes down the memory hole. The war is dirty, but brief and about 1 million die. Of course, there are some curve balls that could happen during the course of the war including North Korean sleeper cells being activated and there being a real death toll of American civilians in the heartland. Or any number of other weird outcomes could occur that would not result in the things being as tidy as Trump would hope. War is hell and strange things happen all the time once you actually start them.
2. The Iran-Contra
In this one, the United States is just too divided, and the issue is just too muddied and we don’t finally pin Trump down. All we get, at best, is a televised speech where Trump wanly says he’s “sorry” and we all move on and Trump wins reelection.
3. Blue Wave: All Hell Breaks Loose
In this one, Trump fires Mueller, the Stormy Daniels scandal reaches a tipping point there’s an actual Blue Wave in November. Trump is impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, but Trump refuses to accept the outcome and there’s a shoot out on the lawn of the White House between the Secret Service and the FBI. The United States is on the brink of civil war until Pence pardon’s Trump and actively tries to calm the situation down. Pence is worse than Trump in some ways because he has an ideology and there’s a lot of resentment against him by a large segment of the population. Also, there is the possibility that by the time all this happens we will reach such anger in the populace that even Pence is removed and we endup with a Democratic president in a round about way. Or it’s possible that if it Trump sees its obvious that he’s going to be impeached, the Vichy Republicans Congress may negotiate a deal whereby someone like Ivanka Trump may replace Pence during a lame duck session after the Blue Wave.
I honestly have no idea which one of these will happen. It’s likely it will be some muddled mixture of the three. Only time will tell.