by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
I am not prepared to believe Trump finally faces an existential threat, at least on a political level. Politically, he’s fine. The Republican Party is now the fascist Trump Party and he is likely to be acquitted on the facts before us and go about his merry way. He will bribe individual Electors, get Russia to directly hack into our election systems or he will simply get Bill Barr to indict his opponent in Oct. 2020.
But let’s daydream. What if Trump loses his mind during the process of impeachment or, say, there’s MAGA violence that makes the average person so furious with House Trump that Der Fuhrer finally meets his political match — himself. Who would President Pence pick as his Veep?
This is a far more complicated question than you may at first imagine. Pence wants to use the MAGA base to win two full terms on his own. So, it’s unlikely he would pick someone like Nikki Haley because she’s, well, not a Trump. That leaves Ivanka and Don Jr. The reason why I doubt it would be Don Jr. despite his popularity with the MAGA base is he’s such an outlandish hothead that he would likely use his position as veep to challenge Pence for the 2020 Republican nomination.
That leaves Ivanka.
It’s likely Ivanka would be nominated and confirmed by the Senate at lightning speed the moment Trump was somehow finally physically dragged out of the Oval Office. Pence would see Ivanka as the “safe” member of House Trump that would help him on a number of different levels. Ivanka as his veep would reassure MAGA as to his fidelity to House Trump. He would get to name the first woman — and Jewish — veep in American history.
Really, given how little the veep position really does, Ivanka is pretty much perfect for the job. You could pace out any number of different nightmare scenarios involving unintended consequences to this move, but that’s pushing it. Ivanka is an example of someone who thinks that the are “owed” something simply because of their connection to someone who paved the way. She’s in a curious political position because her bonkers brother is far more appealing to the MAGA base, while she herself is at least superficially someone who might for a heartbeat bring the nation together. The moment it sank in how bad she was on a practical level, the usual political divide we inhabit would kick in again.
Put another way — not even Ivanka could coast to the Republican nomination in any traditional manner. Her only real shot at ever becoming president would be if Pence somehow magically found enough shame to resign in disgrace. I just don’t see that happening. Pence at this point is more likely to do exactly what Trump would do only with a theocratic bent to it.
But I do suggest you keep an eye on Ivanka. If there was some sort of last-ditch effort at having a compacted resignation on Trump’s part (this will never happen) then maybe Ivanka-as-veep might be a bargaining chip desperate Republicans might use to coax a reluctant Trump out of office. Or, maybe they might use her as veep on a more basic level — to simply get Trump physically out of the Oval Office should he miraculously be convicted by the Senate.
