Ted Cruz, #Pandemic Hero?

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Ugh. Ted Cruz may endup being the fucking hero of this pandemic clusterfuck. He and a bunch of other right wing nutjobs are self-quarantining because of their exposure to COVID19 at CPAC. It wouldn’t be too much of a stretch that should the US government grow incapacitated because of a massive outbreak, that it would be Cruz — and few other similar very lucky shithead conservatives — who could swoop in and save the day.

But, in a way, it’s not like some sort of fucking twitter liberal utopia is going to happen if Nancy Pelosi abruptly became president. More likely than not,there would be unprecedented political violence across the country. There might be coup attempts in states like Virginia — or even the US government itself.

So, I guess while it will make me grit my teeth and wince, Cruz is far more likely to stay within democratic norms than a lot of the other cocksucker conservative “leader” options we might have at the moment.

The Dumbest Timeline: I Fear Trump Is Mar-A-Lago ‘Patient 0’

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I don’t wish any physical harm against POTUS, no matter how much I want him to spend the rest of his life in prison. He is the president and as such his physical well-being is of the upmost importance.

But we have to begin to prepare ourselves for POTUS as Patient Zero of the Mar-A-Lago outbreak. If numerous people around him are testing positive, then it seems logical that it’s not THEM, it’s HIM we have to worry about. The reason Trump isn’t getting tested — as far as we know — probably has less to do with his health and more to do with the rape case he’s facing right now. He doesn’t want his DNA floating around to be subpoenaed.

What does all of this mean? Well, if we’re lucky, nothing. He might get the sniffles and we’ll never know one way or another. But if, God forbid, the worst happens, then we’re in for some crazy times. Even if Trump simply is incapacitated for a few days because of COVID19, that would be the biggest political story of the year, even more so than impeachment. Pence might play Regent and there would be talk that it should be Don Jr., NOT Nikki Haley should be his VEEP for his second term. All Don Jr. has to do is move is legal residency to, say, Montana and the rest takes care of itself.

Any time anything physical happens to POTUS, it’s a serious affair. And, given how taunt the American political system is, it goes without saying that there will be unprecedented political violence if anything physical happens to Trump. The Far Right already thinks COVID19 is a plot between the Chinese and the Democratic Party, if something physical happen to Trump, that would be pouring gasoline on that particular conspiracy flame.

As such, I think for all considered, let’s just hope nothing physical happens to Trump in the next few weeks because of COVID19. If Trump grew ill on the Ides of March, then, well, the 2020 writer’s room really is full of hacks.

#COVID19 #Pandemic Scenarios: How A Continuation Of Government Crisis Might Play Out

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It’s very possible that all of our events at “blunting the curve” will work and we’ll walk away from our current panic rather unscathed. Trump will crow that he was right all along, indict Joe Biden, and lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College. That’s a very real possibility at this point.

But let’s assume the absolute worst happens. What are some the different ways we might find ourselves wondering who, exactly, the president is in the next 10 days or so.

Since “death be not proud” there are a lot — a LOT — of different combinations and spectrums that might occur. Everything from Trump being the last man standing, only to go completely bonkers, to Nancy Peolosi serving as a caretaker president for a few months to ensure we have a functioning government so we can have free-and-fair elections in the fall.

But those are just the most obvious.

There are also so pretty some surreal situations. Depending on how quick the crisis developed and the exact sequence of events you could have everything from President Hakeem Jeffries to, glup, a more obscure member of Trump’s shitty cabinet being president during a period of unprecedented rebuilding. I could even see severe political violence over the issue of who, exactly, president is if there was some question in the context of replacing a lot of SCOTUS. That would be a recipe for something akin to a civil war, in fact, given how absolutely obsessed the most extreme sides of the two parties are about its make up.

If things got bad enough, it’s within the realm of possibility that out of sheer desperation the military might step in and tell everyone to cool it just long enough to stabilize the country so the Census and the 2020 Election can take place in peace.

Or, if you really want to get into the absolute worst case scenario, you might have Trump finally fucking snap in a rather spectacular fashion and Congress is so sick that it can’t summon the energy to do anything about it. We find ourselves being bombarded with racist rants and cockpics for a few weeks in the middle of a pandemic crisis via the Presidential Alert System. There simply wouldn’t be anything we could do until the people who might impeach-and-convict Trump got well enough to physically be in the same place at the same time to do it.

But I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what’s going to happen. For the time being, all I can say is it looks as though Trump will, AGAIN, escape any form of political accountability, no matter how many people die uncessary deaths.

There’s just no political will to do anything about him until sometime in his second term.

#COVID19 Threat Assessment For March 12th, 2020: This Seems Sub-Optimal

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


While the country is beginning to buckle, for the time being, it seems to be purely a psychological event brought about by criminally poor leadership on the part of House Trump. What’s happening is we’re in something of a panic because people realize we can’t test enough and so we just don’t know the extent of contagion’s spread in the country.

We’re finally doing what we need to mitigate the situation as much as possible, but it’s more a matter of a collapse in public confidence as opposed to a controlled shut down in “an abundance of auction.” As of right now, there’s a good chance that we’ll escape the fate of Iran or even Italy. In ten days, we’ll realize we’re safe and Trump will crow that he “meant to do that” and he was right along and fuck you liberals.

But I have no idea if that’s going to happen. It seems self-evident that we’re a crisis. If we begin to see medical situations that indicate that some of my worst fears are coming true, then that’s a different matter all together. As of the moment, this very well could just be “The Small One.” But a combination of Trump screwing everything up, the Gray Plague and the “WuFlop” might take this otherwise manageable situation to the next level so we have THE BIG ONE on our hands.

I’m feeling rather calm right now and even I have to admit the prospect of an uncontrolled Gray Plague makes me rather nervous. If a huge number of elderly people begin to die on a daily basis, it would be a horrific tragedy of such a historical level it might take us a while to process it all. But it might not even be that. It might be that just the right people in power get sick, causing a sea change in our politics for no other reason than history has decided to wake up rather abruptly. Or, put another way, if we endup somewhere in the Italy – Iran spectrum of the contagion being spread here we all may have made some rather surreal days ahead of us.

The entire power structure of the United States may come to a grinding halt. Now, I will note, some young insane conservatives have “self-quarantined” because of their potential COVID19 expose at CPAC. So, it’s reasonable to assume that if the absolute worst happens on Capitol Hill, they would be the most able to swoop in and take political advantage of this situation. Now, I’m sure there are some of you who salivate at the idea of Ted Cruz suddenly going from Zero to Hero and, like, rebuilding America in the imagine of CPAC. If you are one of those people — please eat shit, you fascist fuck.

I say this for a number of reasons, one of them being Death Be Not Proud. It could be not Ted Cruz but, say, Nancy Pelosi who gets to play hero. And if that’s the case, all you shithead conservatives will do is bitch and moan about how everything was going your way until the media’s coverage of the contagion made people panic.

Anyway, we haven’t even gotten to the WuFlop part of all of this. If that starts to happen around the country, then what is, for the moment, a matter of criminally bad leadership on the part of House Trump will escalate to something far, far, bigger and darker in our nation’s history. If you’re not prepared to see the WuFlop you’re in for a surprise. When an otherwise healthy person passes out and starts to convulse on the ground, it’s rather spooky on a visceral level.

I have no idea what’s going to happen. It could still go either way. If it gets as bad here as it’s gotten in Iran, then, well, it may be such a massive tragedy that neither side will be all that happen with whatever policy advantage they gain from it.

And tomorrow is Friday the 13th.

Something I Don’t Understand #COVID19

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


There’s something about this pandemic I don’t understand.

I don’t understand why Wuhan was such a hotzone while for some time there were very few deaths outside of it. That has changed recently in Italy and Iran, but there was a while there when there was an eerie lack of deaths outside of the original hotzone.

That’s something that I, as a layperson, can’t grok.

It seems as though in the United States right now, there are two Wuhan-like hotzones: Kirkland County in Washington State and just outside of NYC. The Washington hotzone definitely seems a bit more ominous than what’s going on in New York, however.

What I don’t understand is what makes a hotzone like Wuhan or Kirkland County different. And is there a chance that whatever it is that’s happening in the Pacific Northwest might spring up elsewhere in the United States in a big way?

I dunno. It’s an interesting situation.

The Gray Plague: A Historic, Preventable Tragedy #COVID19

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I can’t predict the future. I don’t have reveled truth. But some pretty basic datapoints indicate that if we don’t realize soon how many elderly Americans in rest homes are at risk of dying in the United States (about 1.4 million), then, well, we’re going to have unprecedented national grief. I wrote the below some time ago in something of a panic:

The elderly 65+ are most at risk of succumbing to COVID19.
People in close proximity to each other (like a cruise ship or…a rest home) can be all infected quite quickly. (A mental institution in South Korea saw something like 90% infection rate).
We’re totally luzling this in the United States.
About 47 million Americans are 65+
.

We already have a case of ONE rest home in Washington State being, essentially, a strategic super-spreader of COVID19.

So, logically, if we’re not taking this seriously and “jungle rules” are applying right now to the spread of COVID19, then, well, it’s looking pretty grim.

The thing I didn’t realize is one reason why The Gray Plague may be far, far more deadly than I initally realized is where the most at-risk elderly people in any one community are: all together in one spot.

A rest home.

And since I first wrote the above a few days ago, I’ve begun to hear rumblings about similar outbreaks popping up in other rest homes across the country. It seems as though if we don’t take this threat far more seriously that two things may happen.

One, a staggering number of elderly people may die early, preventable deaths. Like, close to a million in a very, very short amount of time.

Meanwhile, it’s possible that each of the 15,600 rest homes across the country that become COVID19 hotzones might serve as something of virus “signal amplifiers” across the country as people visit them and then go home and spread the virus in communities all over the country that might not otherwise be infected.

It does seem as though some effort is being put into saving these high-risk elderly people. But my concern is it’s too little, too late. My concern is we’re going to have to process a staggering number of elderly people dying over the next, say, 100 days.

But, who knows. I know I don’t.

Maybe I’m wrong. But I’m just a doofus in the middle of no where, right, Maggie Haberman? Go talk to her about this. She’s soul her sold for access to Dr. Trump, I’m sure she knows more about it than I do.

#COVID19 Threat Assessment For March 11th: ‘It’s Not A Toomha’

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I am feeling pretty good right now. Now that understand what’s going on happen — there’s going to be a sharp, brief spike in cases across the country before the situation stabilize — I’m not feeling as nervous. At this point, the only reason why I’m really concerned at all is what’s going on in Italy and Iran. China and South Korea have proven that with the proper measures, you can have a suddenly severe spike in cases that subsides to a manageable level rather abruptly. We’re probably going to get the shit scared out of us on an unprecedented level nationally, but we will live to fight another day.

At least, that’s what should happen.

The biggest threat to American security right now is not COVID19, but our own president’s reaction to it. He’s probably going to switch gears tonight and go full paranoid racist demagogue on the situation. He will see this pandemic as an opportunity to further consolidation power, not to bring the nation together.

Trump never loses on a political level because of his nature as an avatar for the MAGA base’s hatred of liberals, the browning of America and feminists. So, for the time being, Trump, is as always, his own worst enemy. In a sense, Trump may become a “War President” and, as such, he will have far more power than he might otherwise. If he really was the “very stable genius” that he and Maggie Haberman would have us believe, he would be in a very good position to dominate Joe Biden. Trump’s dream of losing the popular vote and winning the Electoral College in the fall would be a foregone conclusion.

But.

This is Trump we’re talking about, so he’s going to self-own. I’m not prepared to say his self-own will be existential. He’s just too lucky for that to be an issue. But the context of his ultimate, inevitable victory in the fall may be a bit more different than he would like. He’s such a malignant force in American politics that 60% of the electorate is going to be seething about House Trump’s surreal control of America going into his second term. How that might manifest itself is anyone’s guess.

My best guess is he gets impeached again at some point in his second term, but by that point, Don Jr. or Steve King will be his veep so, lulz.

Another option is Trump implodes or explodes on a mental level just as the crisis reaches its denouement and there’s a momentary pause in the rise of the Fourth Reich and the Thousand Year Trump. I don’t want that to happen. I really don’t. That would be among the absolute worst case scenarios out there — I mean, do we really want all 328 million of us to see a picture of Trump’s cock on our phones via the Presidential Alert System?

Or, to put it another way, the only way House Trump doesn’t endup on top because of this crisis is Trump himself. That’s it. Otherwise, no matter what, they will be far more powerful, far quicker than they might have been otherwise in two years.

But, sadly, there are some other things that could make what might otherwise be a short, scary event in our nation’s history turn into not The Little One, but, THE BIG ONE. Besides Trump’s generally fuckery, there is The Gray Plague and the WuFlop to worry about.

If the Gray Plague begins to strike in any big fashion, then that would be a preventable tragedy of such proportions that I don’t want to think about it all that much. It definitely would give one pause for thought. The WuFlop, too, would likely cause so much panic in the United States if a recorded instance of it showed up on TV that the nation might buckle for a few days in abject terror.

Or, put another way, there are simply too many wild card known unknowns for me to properly gauge what is going to happen in the next, say, 60 days. In general, we’re going to get the shit scared out of us a few times, but House Trump will simply grow stronger and more hateful in the end. But if history decides to wake up in a big way, we all –even me — may be shocked by how surreal, how weird things get in a rather abrupt, unpredictable fashion.

History, Please Stay Asleep

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I’m enough of a student of history to know the conditions are there for the next, say, 60 days, to be some of the most surreal, jaw-dropping days in American history. I say this only because of what’s happening in Italy. Italy is imploding and it could very well be they’re us in about 10 days.

I refuse to articulate what I fear my happen because it would be bad taste. But I will note what has happened to Iran because of COVID19 — the entire power structure of the country is now wrapped up in the contagion. Maybe it’s because I like scenarios and to think up stories, but it definitely seems as though it’s possible we may want to slow our collective roll and what may — or may not — happen in American politics long term.

I have no inside information. I’m not a part of the Deep State. I just am well enough versed in the conditions of the pandemic bouncing around the planet right now to know that anything is possible. The Gray Plague. The WuFlop. If either one of those two things make a significant appearance the entire context of the 2020 campaign might not be at all what we think right now.

I don’t want to be right. I really don’t. But I do want to simply prepare myself for the possibility that the best laid plans of mice and men often go astray.

#COVID19 As Trump’s ‘Chernobyl’

Trumplandia.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


First, Trump is nothing more than a political avatar. You could have a hateful catatonic person do a better job than Trump is right now. So, really, I would say even if Trump’s criminally incompetent reponse to COVID19 became an existential threat to House Trump, it would not really matter.

Nothing matters. Lulz.

A million people — mostly elderly could die unnecessary deaths in the next 60 days and nothing would happen to him on a political level. No accountability. Nothing. He will lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College through any means necessary.

So, I guess, really, if you propose that COVID19 might be House Trump’s “Chernobyl,” what you’re really saying is the context of his thuggish regime might be different for 60% of the electorate who isn’t part of the MAGA death cult. And, honestly, any political accountability Trump had would be far enough in the future that he would have plenty of time to name Don Jr. or Steve King his veep. The worst COVID19 becomes, the more Trump has a vested interest in making it politically impossible to get rid of House Trump by replacing Pence with Don Jr.

Now, as I keep saying — I have no personal ill will towards Trump. I could care less. I would like to him to spend the rest of his life in prison, but I with him the best of health otherwise. But given he keeps shaking hands, it is worth contemplating what might happen if he was sufficiently incapacitated that Pence became president and was in the position to name his replacement.

As I’ve written before, there’s only one person he would name: Ivanka Trump. He would do so because she would be a place holder while he figured out what else he mind do to get into the good graces of the MAGA base who currently don’t care for him. He would say Ivanka as a “threefer:” a woman, a Jewish person and a Trump. She would be approved by the Senate at lightening speed if there was any type of crisis because, well, the MAGA coward Republican Senators wouldn’t want Nancy Pelosi so close to the Presidency.

The point is, however, that barring something, uh, historic (?), because MAGA is now a death cult, House Trump will use this crisis to simply consolidate power even more, more quickly. If traditional political gravity did begin to work again with House Trump, we might be in for a few surreal days. We would look at each other in astonishment as Trump’s enablers rather abruptly changed their tune.

But that’s so fantastical, I just don’t want to waste time on that. In the end, it won’t be COVID19 that is House Trump’s Chernobyl, it will be Trump himself. In other words, he such a self-own artist that the only way the traditional rules of politics ever come back in regards to him will be he goes so fucking insane that we will all grow quite well awaited with this size and shape of his cock. That’s it. That’s the only way I could possible see House Trump being knocked off its feet — everyone in America gets a presidential cock pic via the Presidential Alert System at the height of a historic pandemic.

Even then, it’s debatable.

We’ll probably forget it soon enough, like we do everything else with him. Even if Trump nukes us all to hell, Hugh Hewitt will continue to be a Trump apologist in some bunker.

Lulz?

Potential Post-Pandemic Art

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I’m currently developing a novel that aims to be a rather physological rumination of the Trump Era in the guise of a political spy thriller. I’ve been working on it for about a year now and it’s getting really, really good.

But there’s a problem.

Given when it’s set — the immediate past — the context might be far different than I could ever otherwise imagine. If Trump bungles the response to a brief, severe pandemic outbreak in the United States, enough people will finally hate him that I might be able to use his name in the novel. Right now, the novel is something of a scenario with *A* president not *THE* president involved.

But there are a lot of known unknowns. Trump could simply use the COVID19 situation to consolidate power in a big enough manner that I’ll be lucky not to be put in prison for the novel, much less having to worry about selling it.

I do think, however, that there’s likely to be a huge glut of new content in 2021 for no other reason than a lot of writers are going to be either inspired to finally finish their passion project or they’re going to be jiggled in some way out of their usual drunken stupor. (Or is that just me?)

Anyway. The point for me is to finish a novel for myself. That’s it. If I can get one person to read it all the way through and ask, “What happens next?” then all this work will be worth it. I just don’t want to embarrass myself.