Category: Cold Civil War

I’m Worried About The 2024 Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is a quirk of the American Constitutional system that scares the ever living beejeebas out of me and that is if no one person wins the Electoral College outright that the House and Senate pick from the top THREE vote getters.

Horace Greeley

Now, you may say, lulz, so what.

But there are two issues you have to remember.

One is, both Trump and Biden are old as fuck. Second, when Horace Greeley died after the 1872 election his electoral votes were distributed amongst the other people who ran.

If, God forbid, either Trump or Biden — or both! — were knocked out of the election after the 2024 election happened….Holy Shit. Total fucking chaos. Because who what might happen to the veep of whichever candidate has shuffled off this mortal coil?

There is one added complication — not only would the House pick from the top three candidates, but each state gets only one vote made up of state delegations. Talk about potential shenanigans. Massive chaos and horse trading. The country is already on edge as it is, bullshit like this could push us over the edge.

This is all very speculative. There’s every reason to believe we won’t have to worry about any of is because we’ll be so busy worrying about if we’re going to become an autocracy or have a revolution / civil war.

I Don’t Think Believing It’s Possible America Will Fall Into Revolution & Civil War Because of Tyrant Trump is ‘Optimism Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still smarting over some fucking Twitter liberal putting me on blast for simply believing that it won’t be the of the story if Trump wins re-election in the fall. This nattering nabob of negativism seems to think that our only choice is to “vote harder” and it’s a foregone conclusion that we’ll turn into German 1933 the moment Trump has power again.

I find this extremely aggravating. I don’t think it’s “optimistic” to suggest that SOME SORT of severe reaction will happen within Blue parts of the USA if Trump goes full tyrant. Seems pretty dark to me. Now, obviously, if Trump goes full tyrant, there’s a chance that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country.

But that still leaves a shit ton of very angry Blues spread across the third largest nation by geography and population. I don’t want to have to depose the POTUS in a revolution then have to worry about a civil war when Red States leave the Union in protest.

That would not be fun or cool or “optimistic.”

Anyway. I am not prepared to give up if Trump wins. For me, it won’t be the end of the story, it will be a new beginning in which we will all be tested and forced to figure out what we will risk our lives and scared honor IN THE REAL WORLD to protect.

Not advocating anything.

America Is On Track To Be A Hungary-Style Autocratic State When The Next Republican Becomes POTUS….But For Ding-Dong Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a macro, structural basis, the “vibes” that are tearing the United States apart at the moment all go back to white people being unhappy with demographic trends. Everything from abortion to immigration boils down to — not enough sweet, sweet little white babies being born for the liking of racist, misogynistic white people who hate the browning of America and the mainstreaming of feminist ideals.

In a sense, we probably should just accept our fate — the moment ANY Republican is president, the US is going to become a Hungary-style autocratic state. ANY Republican president, no matter who that might be, will ignore democratic norms and twist and warp the wording of the Constitution to get what they want — a white Christian ethnostate.

And, yet, there is one person who might stop that from happening — malignant ding-dong Trump.

The reason why I suggest this is Trump is so bad at actually governing that given the opportunity to be an autocrat, there’s a pretty good chance that he will so piss everyone off that he could very well be deposed. (I’m not advocating anything!)

Any other Republican in his position could easily and peacefully transition the US into an autocratic state. But Trump. Oh boy. He is going to thrash around to the point that even the people who would be the core of his support — Traditionalists who would otherwise be “Good Americans” — might sit up and take notice.

It took Putin a few years to move Russia into the autocratic state it is now. Trump is so dumb and lazy — and so impatient — that he could just kind of freak out from the moment he’s in office to the point that even your most laid back (white) Traditionalists might, just might at least look the other way if there was some sort of General Strike to bring down Trump.

As of right now, at least, it definitely looks like late 2024, early 2025 is going to s u c k.

It’s Like We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks, other than maybe “Watch out for that last step.” Now, in February of 2024, it definitely seems as though the only way we prevent Trump from being POTUS again is some sort of Black Swan event that I just can’t predict.

I continue to believe that people are looking at the potential of a Second Trump Administration all wrong. It will be so tyrannical and such an aberration compared to anything we’ve ever seen before that I don’t think it’s “optimism bias” to think the reaction to Trump’s ham-handed tyranny could be just as unprecedented.

As I keep saying, America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.

At a minimum, it will take time for Trump to build out an SA-like infrastructure to remind Blues to keep their heads down and mouths shut. I keep musing on the idea that Trump is somehow deposed in a Glorious Revolution, then that, in turn prompts a Second American Civil War.

That, in turn, causes World War 3.

And, yet, I just can’t predict the future. No one can. And there is every reason to believe that either Biden is peacefully re-elected, or Trump really does get to be a tyrannical autocrat and we all just lulz it.

Though I do think that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country once it becomes clear that Trump is actually going to do what he was elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat.

Why I’m Really Worried About The United States In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of things are coming together at the same time to destabilize the United States. Everything from negative polarization to income inequality is eating away at the very fabric of the greatest nation in world history.

I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the 2024 presidential silly season.

There is every reason to believe we will, but even if we do, we could very well peacefully slide into autocracy under a second Trump Administration. They key thing for me is the Republican Party wants an autocratic white Christian ethnostate sooooo fucking bad that, in a sense, Trump is all that stands in the way of the getting their goal.

Not because he’ll lose, but because if he wins, he could very well rile everyone up so much in the ham-handed manner in which he tries to establish that autocratic white Christian ethnostate that there’s a “Glorious Revolution” by Blues and he’s deposed — not that I’m advocating anything!

Anyway. A lot is going wrong in the US right now. But for my worst fears to come true — that the US would collapse into revolution and / or civil war — a lot more shit would have to go wrong.

Hopefully, at a minimum, we’ll just peacefully turn into an autocracy and I’ll figure out some way to leave the country.

If Trump’s Presidency Proved Anything, It’s That A Kamala Harris Presidency Would Be Fine

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump staggered through four years of a horrible, chaotic presidency. I’ve heard at least one person say that they will vote for Trump because they’re afraid of a Kamala Harris presidency.

The more I think about that fear, the more racist it sounds.

Harris is not great for various reasons, including her youth an inexperience. But if she did become POTUS, she would rise to the occasion — something that Trump did not and could not do.

So, I will vote for Joe Biden in 2024 confident that if — God forbid — something happens to him that President Harris will grow into the role. She’s got far more experience — and is far more stable — than Trump was when he came into office in 2017.

It Definitely Seems As Though The United States Is Careening Towards Autocracy or Civil War / Revolution

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re just not going to make it safely through the 2024 presidential cycle. It definitely seems as though either the United States turns all Red (autocracy) or we collapse into revolution and civil war and (hopefully) the Blue “good guys” win and we turn all Blue because of a Second Reconstruction.

And, yet, it could be this is just more of my “hysterical doom shit.” It could be that lulz, we’ll just muddle through like we always do.

But it seems like it could go either way.

Yet negative polarization is so absolute, so white hot at the moment that I’m very alarmed about our future in late 2024, early 2025. But I can’t predict the future.

Who knows what will happen.

A Ping From My Successful Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For health reasons, I’ve decided to stop drinking full stop immediately. It seems this is example of a ping from my successful future — something is going to happen to make me a success just as I’m both too old to party with 24-year-olds AND I can’t even drink.

So, if that’s not a sign that I’m going to break out with my DJ (novel) money soon enough, I don’t know what is. I won’t be able to get wasted and go home with some smoking hot babe.

Any dating with be done sober and with women who are too old to have babies. Sigh.

It’s all very deep. I have to accept that I’m going to be 20 to 30 years too old to have the type of success I feel I should have. Any “success” I have will be that of a very late bloomer who is frantically doing everything in his power to cram in as many colorful and cool things into the twilight of his life.

It’s going to both suck and be great (if surreal.)

So, that fits the way my life has been to date so obviously it’s going to happen. Barring my becoming a Blue Revolution leader in late 2024, early 2025, even if I stick the landing with my novel, I’m not going to be published author until I’m in my mid-50s.

As such, I will have a very limited amount of time to do all the cool shit I feel I deserve to do. And, even then, it won’t be in the way I always dream it would be.

Ugh.

The United States Has a Severe Problem With Corrosive ‘Vibes’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is growing more and more unstable. The sad thing about it is, that instability boils down to something a nebulous and vacuous as “vibes.” Both Red and Blue have reason to resent the union that we find ourselves in. I will note, of course, that Reds are far bigger crybabies than Blues when they don’t get their way or if they feel slighted.

What’s the most surreal element to all of this is Reds are ascendant politically on a macro basis. But they are totally oblivious to this fact. They are so shortsighted and angry at any perceived slight — even though all the political momentum is on their side — that they’re chomping at the bit to start a civil war.

That’s probably the biggest mistake I’ve made when trying to game out potential civil war scenarios — Reds are acting irrationally. They have no political patience and they could very well shoot themselves in the foot and start a civil war even though they are well on their way to getting everything they want if they’re just take a long-term approach to their goals.

It’s interesting when talking to my center-Right relatives how they perceive the center-Left. They seem to think that center-Left people hate Apple Pie and motherhood. They believe that all center-Left people are gay or trans people who hate want to commit infanticide then crow about it on social media.

It’s deeply weird and based almost exclusively on vibes generated within the Right-wing echo chamber of podcasts and Fox News. (Even though a lot of Right wing people like to poo-poo Fox News, the network still sets, a general way, the agenda of the Right wing echo chamber.)

Anyway, I really, really hope that we just muddle through things like we always do (at least have in the past.) But I’m starting to have my doubts.

What Can’t Be Said

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A sign that the United States is growing more and more unstable is it’s growing more and more difficult for people who disagree on policy to talk to each other. It’s difficult to say what is obviously true when talking to some conservatives, which is, “Hey, you’re a bigot.”

You just can’t do it. If you mention racism or bigotry being the core reason why this or that thing is generating so much fear and hate within someone who should know better, it would instantly end the conversation.

But, here we are — sexism, bigotry and racism are now generating a huge amount of political power within conservative ranks. That’s one of the reasons why the two sides are receding from each other at such an alarming rate — conservatives are very touchy — maybe even a bit delusional — whenever the issue of why, exactly they’re so upset about the “crisis at the border” or abortion.

I don’t know what to tell you — either we collectively dodge a bullet and just muddle through another four years….or we don’t.