V-Log: My Personal Theory On The Trump – E. Jean Carroll Situation

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Some thoughts.

The End Of The American Constitutional Republic — An Electoral College Nightmare

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The fatal flaw in our existing system is there are physical human beings — 538 of them — who vote for president as the Electoral College. Given that Nancy Pelosi refuses to impeach Trump on moral grounds, if nothing else, what’s to stop Trump from using his dark money buddies to bribe enough electors to give him the presidency, even if he’s not on the ballot? In other words, what if the Electoral College votes for you to be president and you’re not eligible anymore?

Who’s to say you can’t be president, especially if you have FOX News and a dozens of insane assholes who don’t give a shit about anything but absolute power and “liberal tears?”

Once Trump — or whomever — was president at that point, they could as long as they were extreme Right nutjobs — sitback and control the Executive Branch for as long as they like. The military might be upset, but Turkey proves even that isn’t effective.

I think this scenario is the one that will happen, probably in 2020, or no later than 2024 when Trump simply refuses to leave office after the a bribed Electoral College votes for him en masse.

V-Log: Why The Electoral College Will Bring America Down In The End (Or At Least Bring About An ‘Elected’ Dictatorship)

Some thoughts.

Why We Must Impeach Trump Immediately

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It is self-evident that we’re in a no-win situation. Either we do nothing about Trump and wait nearly 18 months for “the people decide” in an election that’s unlikely to be free and fair, or we go down fighting by impeaching Trump sooner rather than later.

One one had this is not a very easy thing to decide. The current conventional wisdom of the Democratic leadership in the U.S. House is to punt the issue of impeachment and let Speaker Pelosi rattle round in Trump’s head until Nov. 2020 rolls around. I find this an untenable position.

I say this because Trump and MAGA have one guiding principle and that’s the gamesmanship of white knuckled power politics. Democrats still think we’re in some sort of hazy feel-good situation from the mid-1980s. This is, sadly, not the case.

MAGA wants to remake the United States structurally to a “managed democracy” like what is found in Russia and will do whatever necessary to achieve that goal.

This brings us to our other option — impeaching Trump immediately. While I understand that Speaker Pelosi is playing 80 dimension chess against Trump who’s barely playing checkers, this is not what’s going on. An more apt comparison would be the scene in Raiders when the knife wielding guy comes after Indy and he just shoots him. Speaker Pelosi can use all the Jedi mind tricks she wishes, in the end, Trump is going to spin no matter what happens.

So why not just impeach Trump?

I would rather the history books — should we last that long — when they’re written say the United States put up a fight right before the cancer of MAGA finally enveloped it for the last time than that we did nothing when given the choice.

I think that’s the least we can do at this point.

Bob Mueller Falls On His Sword

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I think Bob Mueller fell on his sword.

In other words, much like how SCOTUS sacrificed its historical legitimacy as part of the 2000 election recount decision, so, too, did Mueller take a look into the void of going after who he needed to indict and say, “Nope!”

As such, in the short term, I guess we can all kind of just start listening to disco again. Because, in a sense, Mueller took it upon himself to pardon Trump and as such, Trump is going to slowly take over the country and turn us into Russia now.

It’s going to suck!

All I can say is, if you have anything creative in your head get at it. Soon enough we may not have the freedoms we’re used to. I give it less than 20 years.

\

Several Mueller Report Scenarios

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Here are several potential outcomes to today’s (?) release of The Mueller Report to Congress and, in turn, us.

One: It’s strangely a whitewash
In this scenario, we’re all left with the sense that something stinks to high heaven, be it that AG Barr is really hiding something big from us, or that the fix was in on the whole thing the moment AG Barr officially took control over the investigation. This seems like the most likely outcome for various reasons. In this instance, Trump uses his “exoneration” as a sweeping political bludgeon against ANY investigation of he or his administration and we get a very Iran-contra ending to all of this in the long-run.

Two: “Extensive But Inconclusive”
In this case, we learn a huge amount of the details as to what happened between the 2016 Trump Campaign and the Russians but in the end, again, there’s no knockout punch and Trump uses this vague ending to this affair to consolidate power long-term and we’re all very, very fucked. Like, within 20 years we’re a Russian-style “managed democracy” fucked.

Three: The Report is Big. Really Big. But it takes forever for us to learn it.
There’s a really good chance that the bigger the conclusion of the report, the less likely we’ll see it’s full implications for a long, long time. It could be 2021 before we learn the extent to which Trump worked in concert with the Russians to throw the election. By that point, any number of things could have happened. The House could have flipped again, Trump could have finally seized complete control of the government or what have you. It’s all moot and America turns into a fascist dictatorship in all but name.

Four: “Ok, Well Convict Me.”
In this instance, all hell breaks loose. The Report, while declining to suggest anyone big get indicted makes it clear the Trump is in very, very, very big trouble. In this case, Trump’s strategy is to say, “Look, if you can’t convict me in the Senate, shut up.” This would be the ultimate payoff of his base-oriented focus. He easily beats the rap in the Senate and he can marrily go about his business destroying the country. This is a little risky, of course, because, well, Trump is a criminal.

The Mueller Investigation Ends & I Smell A Rat

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I smell a rat.

Unless some datapoint pops up between now and when we see some cleaned up version of The Mueller Report, I’m going to have some suspicions as to why it was wrapped up when it was.

Existing Datapoints:

— Bill Barr and Bob Mueller are close friends (apparently).
— Trump is now in a position to handily win re-election
— Don Jr. is now in a position to handily become president.
— The report comes out just as the 2020 election cycle heats up

So, all I’m saying is someone — AOC maybe? — needs to ask Bob Mueller and Bill Barr some very, very pointed questions.

Maybe the report itself will clear this all up and put to bed my concern.

Or not.

‘Ok, Well Convict Me’ — Trump’s Potential ‘Hail Mary’ Mueller Report Re-Election Strategy

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

There’s a real possibility that Trump knows his base so well that he’s willing to put all his political chips on the table, knowing he’s going to win.

In other words, he might let The Mueller Report come out, knowing that no matter what, he won’t be convicted in the Senate. As I’ve long said about all of this, the last argument of MAGA will be:

“Fuck you, convict him. If you can’t convict him, shut up.”

And, in a sense, I think that’s what Trump’s strategic thinking is.

He probably knows his poll number well enough to know there is absolutely no way 67 Senators will vote to convict him in the Senate, so, in a sense, the sooner he gets impeachment out of the way, the sooner he can do his “Carnage Again In America” campaign for 2020.

Of course, the best laid plans…so if No Deal Brexit happens and the global economy suddenly and abruptly slows down…well, let the games begin!

Perfect Storm: No Deal Brexit & The Ides Of Mueller (Redux)

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

We may — maybe — be careening towards a perfect storm. It’s possible that within days of each other, The Mueller Report will drop in the States and No Deal Brexit will occur in the UK.

This would have us on track (should we actually ever learn what’s in The Mueller Report) for one of the most eventful Aprils in our nation’s history in the sense that no only will there be growing calls for impeachment of POTUS, but the global economy will come to a screeching halt.

But there’s a lot we don’t know at this point.

Trump could lock away The Mueller Report with his taxes.
No Deal Brexit might not happen or might be significantly delayed.

We just don’t know.

There is, however, a greater than zero-sum chance that Trump will, in April, face an unprecedented political existential threat to his administration. There’s also the chance, of course, that America is so divided that not even if Trump’s electorate base melts down to anti-vaxxers and flat earthers will he be removed from office.

Because of demographic, economic and social trends, it may be that Trump will simply be the beginning of a political dynasty that lasts until either the country finally tears itself asunder or the youngest of the Baby Boomers finally begin to die off just as the browning of America begins to have real political impact.

We just don’t know.

A Deep Dive Into MAGA’s Origins & Trump’s Potential Ultimate Political Fate

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Trump is an avatar for some extraordinary systemic issues in the American political system. In other words, someone like Trump was going to pop up at this point in American history demographic and economic issues. All that was up in the air was the exact nature of it all.

So, the case could be made that Trump’s rise has more to do with the conditions that existed in 2008 than whatever specifically may have existed in 2016. Though, of course, there were at least two — two! — criminal active criminal conspiracies that helped push Trump across the victory line in 2016.

But even if Trump had lost, things were going to suck.

And had Trump not won, the only difference between what we have no and supposed counter-factual is the Republican who won would probably have not been, well, insane and a norm breaker like Trump. But the sudden, abrupt shift to the insane conservatism of the modern Republican party was bound to happen for no other reason than, well, Obama turned them all into insane racists hell bent on overturning his legacy.

White people can suck so bad sometimes. (I say this and I’m white.)

I say all of the above because all the people who seem to think The Mueller Report is going to magically bring Obama back from his extended trip to grab a pack of smokes at the corner store are deluding themselves. MAGA is a long-term, chronic issue that will always be on the cusp of going septic until, well, it does.

Maybe not a civil war, but a situation whereby the one thing America has had for about 200 years — even through a civil war! — will be lost: regular elections and civilian control of the military.

If you have to debate with a MAGA person if the United States is a democracy or a republic, well, you have your answer right there. There’s going to come a point when the United States is run by a military junta for no reason than both sides will grow so polarized that the the entire system freezes up and because the American military won’t follow an illegal order, either they step in to cool down the situation or there’s enough unrest that we might have a situation like Reconstruction where some states are run as military districts (probably the Blue States the way things are going.)

It’s so difficult to address why we’re going to have to wait until the 2021-2023 era to “get” Trump politically because there’s so much going on on a macro level. The point is, Trump is going to win re-election in 2020 and either he starts to tout someone as his “successor” who will protect his “legacy” in 2024….or we do, in fact, finally “get him.”

By “get him” I mean he’s removed from office because the preponderance of evidence against him is so staggering — and the time before he leaves off is long enough — that even though he will say he’s been “vindicated” there’s a real chance that the economy will finally tank and then he’ll be down to about 20% of the electorate who will continue to support him.

And, yet, I have to address the most fucked up scenario again.

That scenario, which I just don’t see happening, but still, is this: The Mueller Report finally comes out and somehow, someway we learn (after a few months of court battles) that “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy” and impeachment hearings began in the middle of an extended 2020 campaign.

It would be the most completely fucked up political event in modern American political history because the cold hard facts of how we’re now two America’s will be laid bare.

One one hand, Trump’s many, many, many crimes will be investigated in the House and just about 50% of the electorate will think he should be convicted in the Senate.

Meanwhile, the other 50% of the electorate will be busy RE-NOMINATING Trump for 2020.

Talk about a crazy split screen.

While highly unlikely — I think Trump will easily win re-election for various reasons, there is a non-zero chance it could happen. Probably the exact timing of No Deal Brexit will play a large part in all.

But what do I know.