Category: From The Editor

Is Someone Actually Listening To My Hysterical Scenarios?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because I have absolute no life, I study my Webstats to such an extent it’s really rather shameful. Having said that, I will note I’ve noticed an uptick in people poking around this site with something of an agenda.

I really pulling this out of my butt because I have no idea what is really going on, but given some of the links that people out in the aether are interested in, I wonder if….maybe people are beginning to take my hysterical predictions for 2024 – 2025 seriously?

Who knows.

If they are, it’s very, very flattering.

Generally, no one listens to me. Ever. For any reason. And when they do, they get mad at me. So the idea that even a tiny number of “normal” people might actually be taking my foreboding about the next 18-odd months seriously is enough to make me sit up and take notice.

Anyway. I really hope we don’t have any sort of civil war. It would be much better if we just slip into autocracy and I find to find some way to avoid crossing our new autocrat, President Ron “Tiny D” DeSantis. I have a novel I’m working on and Freedom of Speech would be the last thing that he would strangle, giving me time to maybe get my novel published.

Known Unknowns 2023 – 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Will I Sell My Novel?
I’m not getting younger and with a real risk that we may have a civil war, I’m worried that a combination of ageism and a systemic collapse of the United States will prevent me from even getting close to selling my first novel.

Is Jon Lovett Leaving Crooked Media?
Lovett has been unusually salty during Pod Save America advertising promos of late. And then there was that moment in time when he outwardly at least seemed to be “quiet quitting” by not showing up to work. I think I’m over thinking things, but there definitely is an unusually high level of hostility of late between Lovett and the other Crooked bros.

Will Lindsey Graham Be Outed?
I saw a blind item on Tik-Tok that suggested that something might happen to “out” South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. I find this very, very dubious. I don’t care if Graham is gay or not, but the political implications of his relationship with the MAGA base being changed by the thing that everyone assumes about him to be verified would be interesting.

Is Trump Going to get Indicted & Will It Matter?
I’ve been told for some time that Trump facing some accountability is just about to happen and squat has happened in real criminal terms. So, the idea that Trump might ACTUALLY get indicted over the Stormy Daniels imbriglio is not something I take all that seriously. And, yet, it definitely FEELS like this time may be different and Something Big might be about to happen. I asked a Traditionalist relative if they would vote for someone who was indicted and they said no. I have my doubts if the choice in their mind is between an indicted person and someone who Tucker Carlson tells them is a “groomer” and the leader of the “woke cancel culture mob.” So, lulz. I don’t think it’s going to matter if Trump is indicted.

Who Wins The Republican Nomination?
At the moment, seems that Trump is going to win the GQP nomination pretty handily. And, yet, it’s also at least possible that something happens and Ron “Little D” DeSantis wins in an upset. At the moment, at least, it definitely seems as though it’s too far out for us to figure out which way things are going to go. It really could go either way. And whichever way things ultimately go, we’ll look back and think about how obvious it was that that was the only option.

Will #NeverTrump Implode if DeSantis is the Nominee?
I am beginning to believe that the #NeverTrump movement is going to face a real crossroads at some point between now and spring 2025. Either they give up and support Ron DeSantis, or we have a civil war and they become something akin to the War Democrats of the First American Civil War. There’s no middle ground for them. But I do think if DeSantis is the Republican nominee that a few major #NeverTrump “thought leaders” will bounce out of the cause back into the Putin-esque arms of a DeSantis-lead Republican Party.

Will Trump Bounce To The Patriot Party?
This is a real mystery at this point. It could go either way if Trump loses the GQP nomination. He’s just as likely to collapse into a puddle and support DeSantis as he is to go crazy and bounce to the Patriot Party and split the Republican ticket. The likelihood of Second American Civil War increases significantly because if Trump ran as a member of the Patriot Party and lost, then he would be a lot more likely to demand Red States leave the Union than if he was the nominee and simply won.

The Horace Greeley Endgame
Given the president’s advanced age, we have to take seriously the possibility that he may shuffle off this mortal coil at some point between 2025. The closer we get to that crucial few months between Election Day and Certification Day, the more it’s possible that some pretty basic political assumptions we have about the 2024 election would be thrown out the window because we’re suddenly dealing with the untested President Harris. Any student of history will tell you this kind of catastrophe kind of writes itself.

Will We Have A Civil War?
A lot depends on Trump. He is dumb that it’s easy to imagine him, unto himself, being the reason why we have a civil war. If he somehow loses the 2024 election he may begin to rant about the need for Red States — starting with Texas — to leave the Union because he got his feelings hurt. I vacillate widely as to how likely this is. At the moment, I just don’t know. Could go either way.

….Or Does Autocracy Come To America?
When it comes to autocracy in America, there are two main scenarios. Either Trump is our new autocrat and it’s not until his successor that our transformation into a Hungary-style illiberal autocracy is complete or a President DeSantis becomes America’s Putin from the get-go.

Good luck, folks.

The Second Draft Of My Novel Continues To Improve

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am really pleased with where things stand with this second draft. I do have a few concerns, however. One concern is how long its taking me. I really need to speed up my writing. I simply do not have forever. I continue to hope to have this second draft done by around June.

That’s the hope.

But I sometimes find myself falling into the bad habit of just kind of drifting towards my goal. It’s very annoying. And, yet, the reason why it’s taking so long as I am really thinking hard about character. The only way this novel is going to work is if I really, really improve character.

Another fear I have is this fucking novel is too long. Or will be. It’s going to blow past the 100,000 word sweat spot, to the point that I am struggling with a second novel that would be in the 80,000 to 100,000 range. The only problem is, I’m so focused on this first novel, that it’s really difficult to turn my attention away and write about anything else.

Of ‘Wokeness:’ A Tale Of Two Dresses

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It occured to me, if you want to know what “woke” means, the following situation pretty much sums it up. On one hand, we have Emily Ratajkowski wearing a sheer — but tasteful — dress to the Vanity Fair Oscar after party and getting a lot of hate for it. Meanwhile, trans icon Hunter Schafer wears what what is demonstrably a more provocative dress to the same event and she’s heaped with praise.

Now, to me, what happened is Emrata suffered at the hands of Internet misogyny culture while Schafer’s fan base is so ecstatic that she’s living her best life as a woman that she gets praise.

Or something like that.

There has been something of a kerfuffle over some Right-wing “thought leader” not being able to give a cogent explanation of what being “woke” is on a TV show. Obviously, being “woke” at this point pretty much means “whatever goes against the MAGA fascist agenda.”

But upon giving it some thought, here is what the woman came up with later, after the show.

Looking closely at this new explanation she gave, it looks like total bullshit to me. If I was forced to give a non-silly, non-partisan definition of being “woke” I would use terms “systemic racism” and “transgender rights” in it somewhere.

Let me be absolutely clear — I generally support transgender rights. What I *DON’T* support is when the “woke cancel culture mob” freaks the fuck out about people like Dave Chappelle simply expressing their disagreement with the ideological conventions of the Trans movement.

I say this because, you can yell at me all you like about how Trans people are dying and, as such, we have to protect them to the point that even free speech is limited — but you’re missing something very important by saying that.

And that is the touchiness of the Trans movement is driving Traditionalists into the arms of MAGA Nazi fascists who if they ever gain the presidency again will definitely give the Trans movement something to cry about. Or we have a civil war and then everyone — Trans people included — will have a lot more problems on their hands than a Dave Chappelle joke.

Anyway, this is an intractable problem that is, again, probably going to only be solved with the “woke” era ends because we have a civil war or turn into an autocracy.

We Have To Have A Frank Discussion As Society About The Looming Need For a #UBI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With the release of ChatGPT 4.0, it is yet even more apparent that there is a risk that huge swaths of the American economy may be eaten by AI far sooner than we would like. The first test of this will be, of course, the coming Hollywood writers’ strike.

If studios can successfully write professional-grade scripts using ChatGPT, then, well, there you go. Before you know it, instead of subscribing to a streaming service, we’ll all just pay $15 a month to access to the body scans of Hollywood stars so an AI can pump out very, very specific entertainment to us on a regular basis.

The end of mass media will have arrived.

But I’m really growing alarmed that a lot of high end, white collar jobs may goo poof within a few years as AI grows better and better. And we’re just not prepared for what happens when everyone from semi-drivers to tech bros simply don’t have any jobs available to them anymore.

As such, we need to start thinking about how we might implement a Universal Basic Income. The obvious way to me seems we “bribe” plutocrats by replacing the entire tax system with a 30% VAT while also having some sort of montified UBI deployed.

That seems to be the type of thing that might allow us to get a UBI.

But there is the darker scenario where we, well, have a civil war / WW3 and it’s not until after THAT is all sorted out that things like AI really begin to take off, much like TV and WW2.

Who knows.

Give It A Rest, Riley Keough — We All Know Whose Granddaughter You Are

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m hooked on the TV show Daisy Jones & The Six. It’s really good and it’s really helping me with some of the finer points of character development in the novel I’m working on at the moment.

Give it a rest, babe.

But, I have to note that Riley Keough is being EXTREMELY DISINGENUOUS when it comes to her singing ability. She acts like the granddaughter of Elvis would not be musically inclined.

She goes way out of her way to act as if she’s oblivious to why she got the starring role in the show. I suppose some of it has to do with she’s afraid of being dismissed as a nepobaby and doesn’t want people to see her just as the granddaughter of Elvis.

Maybe? Is that what’s going on?

Anyway, I think she’s great and very talented. My quibbles are more about how she’s trying to frame herself in the public eye than anything else.

Jesus, I Hope I’m Wrong

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards autocracy or civil war starting at some point around late 2024, early 2025. My thinking is –we just aren’t going to make it through the passions of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

When your best case scenario if your country slides peacefully into autocracy, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. But that’s where we are at the moment. I just don’t see the United States being able to punt the structural problems of our democracy down the road anymore.

Late 2024, early 2025 is it — Something Big is going to happen.

It could be as dramatic as civil war, or it could be something far more subtle where someone like a President DeSantis becomes America’s Putin and we are an autocracy in all but name. What I mean by this is, it’s possible that we could become a zombie democracy, with the only indication of anything having changed be how many smug Twitter liberals now live outside the country to do their smug podcasts.

We’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why Canada is being invaded to “save it from the woke cancel culture mob.”

Ugh.

But there is, of course, the far darker scenario — there is a National Divorce with either the Reds leaving the Union or the Blues leaving the Union. I don’t want either one of those things to happen, but it’s something we have to start taking seriously.

It could happen. It really could.

But who knows. It’s still too far out for us — or at least me — to get some sense of what might actually happen. One scenario is Reds leave the Union instead of Blues because Trump doesn’t get the GQP nomination and when he splits the conservative vote he freaks out and demands Red states leave the Union because he’s an idiot, not realizing they want to take him up on it.

Anyway. God good luck, folks. You may very well need it.

This is Hilarious: Allegedly, Kaia Gerber & Cara Delevingne Were Back At It After The Oscars

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Pete Davidson may get all the PR for his “big dick energy,” but it’s Cara Delevingne who is the DL MVP of Hollywood’s collective sexlife. The woman can not be stopped.

Just “friends.”

But her amazing ability to bed female celebrities is obscured because Hollywood doesn’t want us Poors to know what’s going on. If the Hollywood press was clear about what they knew of Delevingne sapphic exploits, it would raise a lot of questions from us Poors that they the Powers That Be would just rather not be asked.

The issue — we Poors just can’t process that the amount of bi-sexualism found in the upper ranks of society. This is especially the case for women. The Elite hold we Poors in such low regard, that they actively gaslight us whenever Delevingne beds yet ANOTHER high end Hollywood starlet.

What I care about is not so much who Delevingne beds, but the fact that the Hollywood press is gaslighting us. This is really grating on my nerves when things like this happen — apparently, Cindy Crawford’s daughter might be hooking up with Delevingne, despite having a “boyfriend.”

The rumor mill has it that the two women were all over each other at some post-Oscar function. I first became aware that they were OBVIOUSLY fucking when I saw a picture of the two women in a two-person cardigan gifted to them by none other than Taylor Swift of all people.

Given that fucking Delevingne is some sort of rite of passage for any hot woman in Hollywood, the idea that the Hollywood press would wilfully not mention what was going on between the two women when the picture was taken is very, very annoying to me

Just tell the fucking truth, people.

Holy Shit

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Writing it may take me longer than I hope, but I’m really feeling great about the state of my second draft. It’s actually professional-grade storytelling. I’m really leaning into character this go round.

I’m ecstatic.

A lot and I mean A LOT could still go wrong. Writers are known for dying unexpectedly for dumb reasons. And, yet, you know, you have to have hope. After years and years of spinning my wheels, I finally, finally feel like I’m living up to my “potential” that the late Annie Shapiro claimed I have.

At 50, I’m old as hell, but, fuck you. (wink.)

My hope is, of course, that now things will speed up significantly. I have the cornerstone of the story, so the rest of it SHOULD flow really fast.

I hope.

A Darkness Looms

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have all feared that there might some sort of moderate-to-severe recession in America in 2023 for a variety of reasons. With the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and the risk that the United States may default because Republicans are cocksucker, it definitely seems as though those fears may be realized.

My overarching fear is, of course, that all the conditions are being established for a massive political and historic clusterfuck in late 2024, early 2025 as I have long predicted. If the American economy is in some sort of Great Recession 2.0 on Election Day 2024, the probability that MAGA Nazis will seize power in the United States once and for all.

Or, of course, Blue States refuse to bend a knee to autocratic MAGA fascism and we have a National Divorce and, as such, a civil war. So, it’s going to be Blues, not Reds, who start any civil war we may have in the future.

There is, of course, the small possibility that somehow, someway we’ll punt the massive structural problems that America faces down the road.

But I have my doubts.

It definitely seems as though we face the existential choice of MAGA autocracy or civil war. That’s it. One of the two. Either or or. And if the United States is suffering from a moderate or severe recession at the time we all go to the polls definitely seems as though we’re pretty fucked.

But the issue is that I simply can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen, I just am working on hunches and gaming out macro factors down the road.