A Second American Civil War Is Coming…

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The conditions are right for second American Civil War. I am thinking it’s going to happen between now and 2025. I say this because to me it seems pretty obvious that Donald Trump as president may be the firebreak between us and this event. What I mean by this is not that Trump is some sort of great leader holding the country together — I think he’s a shit leader — no, it’s that the insane, surreal Right is itching for a fight and only because they have one of their own as president that they don’t act.

So, once Trump is replaced by a center-Left president, it seems obvious to me that the call for secession will grow unbearable. But unlikely 1860-1861, it is more likely to be states in the West that bolt first, not the South. I say this in large part because of race. It just can’t see African Americans voting en masse for secession in South Carolina or Alabama. I can, however, see the residents of, say, Texas or Montana do it.

Of course, there is the opposite possible scenario. It is possible that center-Left states may be the ones, in fact, to leave the Union simply because they don’t feel they’re being listened to. In a way this makes a lot more sense given historical trends, but we’ll just have to see.

One issue is how messy a secessionist movement would be. Would the central government even care, or would it pull a “wayward sisters, part in peace” move and the country would split peacefully a la the USSR in 1991. It pretty much depends on leadership. If there is leadership that demands the nation stay together, then things could get bloody and messy pretty quickly. But if there isn’t the leadership, then the nation is so divided that it’s very possible that the split will pretty much be peaceful.

One interesting issue is what would the respective nations look like post-split. There is the very real possibility that because the center-Left states wouldn’t be contiguous that they would form sort of union with Canada in an effort to fix that problem. Meanwhile, the center-Right states would likely go completely bonkers and push through every insane policy that they’ve wanted to initiate the last 30 odd years. But like I said, only in states like Montana would the split be clean. In the Deep South, any attempt for the state to hold a Secessionist Convention would cause blood to run in the streets.

Should there be a real movement to impeach and convict Trump, should such a move get traction, then that might be the tipping point that causes states to begin to leave the union. So it might not be 2020-2021 or 2024-2025 when all of this happens but 2018-2019. It’s possible. Not probable, but possible.

I think we risk a second American Civil War in part because the views of the insane, surreal Right drift down to the “normal” Right gradually over a few years and so it makes sense that by no later than 2025 what seems insane will be taken as normal by the Right.

All of this doesn’t even take into account a very troubling thing that I don’t really know enough about — Donald Trump is cramming the judiciary with young, insanely conservative judges. So, that’s another thing that might placate the Right and postpone or eliminate the need for them to press secession from their point of view, but make the center-Left feel emboldened to do just that. We may look back on this present era much like the late 1850s, where in hindsight it is obvious that the country is tearing itself apart, it’s just matter of how exactly it’s going to happen.

Adding more fuel to these flames are titanic shifts in our economy. The process of AI, automation and other aspects of the drifting march towards the technological Singularity that we’re now experiencing will bring enormous changes to our society in ways that probably will only hasten or division. Throw in the growing sophistication of AR and VR into the mix and things grow really interesting really quick.

This is the point when I’m supposed to offer up some solutions. Alas, I honestly can’t think of any. That’s why it seems pretty inevitable — at least at this point — that there will be again be Civil War bloodshed shed in the United States within, say, 10 years. I could propose, maybe a “Twitter killer” that might force us to interact with each other in longer than 140 characters, but no one listens to me and I don’t have the skill to design such a service myself, so that’s kind of pointless.

It’s all very sad. I wish there was an easy answer to it all, but there isn’t. We need to engage each other more, need to talk to people we disagree with. But that doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen. So, as of right now, it seems as though all trends point towards us being doomed.

Shelton Bumgarner is the editor and publisher of The Trumplandia Report. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail.com.

The Elements Of Trump

By Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

One of the things that makes Donald Trump so difficult to understand is he has all kinds of influences and elements that are rolled up into one flaming dumpster fire full of shit that can be difficult to understand. Here is my modest attempt to make sense of it all from my novice presidential historian point of view.

1. President James Buchanan
Trump definitely has elements of President Buchanan to him. He seems like the kind of guy who would let states peacefully leave the Union simply because he felt he didn’t have the power to stop them legally. He seems like on a basic level, his presidential instincts really are that bad. And, given the rhetoric of some of the surreal, extreme Right wing people, should Trump lose in 2020, he definitely might have the opportunity to prove one way or another if he would let states leave the Union.

2. President Richard Nixon
Trump has a heaping helping of the self-defeating paranoia and tendency to double down and triple down in the case of a screw up. Especially in the case of the non-existent tapes Trump definitely has a Nixonian tendency to shoot himself in the foot. One aspect that Trump doesn’t have is the smarts that Nixon had. Trump has Steve Bannon, but that only goes so far. A fish rots from the head and Trump for the most part is way, way, way, way in over his head with regard to most issues.

3. President Bill Clinton
One thing Trump shares with Bill Clinton is his willingness to admit defeat in an effort to save his skin. So, it is very possible that should in a few years it look like Trump’s goose is cooked, he could very well say he’s sorry and save his own political hide. Nixon would never say he was sorry, so he lost the presidency. But it’s very possible Trump could save himself on a political level by simply admitting his “satellites” did, in fact, collude with the Russians.

Of course, there is a little bit of Chauncey Gardner from Being There in Trump. He’s just the right dude in the right place at the right time. And he absolutely refuses to give up, no matter what. So, I suspect barring something really awe inspiring politically, that we’re stuck with Trump for four to eight years. We just have to accept that.

Is Trump The Only Thing Stopping A Second American Civil War?

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I am concerned that in hindsight, this decade will be look back upon as the same as the 1850s. During that decade, the United States was tearing itself apart slowly and in hindsight it seemed obvious that a Civil War was in the making.

I worry that maybe the only thing stopping a bloody Second American Civil War is the simple fact that the surreal, extreme bizarre Right is content with the president. If something happens to Trump politically, is it possible that all bets are off? Is it possible there will be real bloodshed?

It definitely seems as though should a center-Left person win in 2020 or 2024 (more likely) that the same forces that elected Donald Trump in the first place will destroy the United States. And, really, at that point it’s a question of if our elected leaders are up to the challenge or not.

Nothing indicates right now, alas, that they are .

It Was Inevitable That Obamacare Was Doomed

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

While Obamacare was a bad bill from the beginning, it was for most people at least a lot better than what existed before. But I’m enough of a student of history to know that it was inevitable that it would be repealed.

Republicans are so surreal in their hatred for everything connected to Obama that once they got power — however long it took — they were going to get rid of the legislation. So, we are on the cusp of just that happening.

So, I don’t know. What will be interesting to see is if once they do repeal it if the pendulum will swing by the other direction and we’ll go to a single payer format. That’s a very real possibility. Though, it’s also very real that we’re just doomed and we’re stuck with this soft dystopia for a few years.

History does not go in a straight line. The good guys don’t always win. So, this could be it. This could be the end of not only Obamacare, but the end of America’s liberal democratic republic. At least, for as long as I live.

When Our Cold Civil War Turns Hot: The Scalise Attack As New Harpers Ferry

By Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I saw on Twitter that someone out there in the surreal alt-Right echochamber is now openly talking about secession. I have seen several incidences where the bizarre Right that lives beyond InfoWars as suggested that the attack on Rep. Steve Scalise is up there with the Battle of Fort Sumner. That is, at least at this point, kind of grasping at straws. What these people are TRYING to say is that the tragic Scalise incident is something like John Brown’s attack on Harpers Ferry. That makes much more historical sense than the Battle of Fort Sumner, at least at this point.

What’s even more weird is that these bizarre, surreal Right wing nutjobs as blathering about this at a time when they have unprecedented power. There is effectively no check on the presidency and Trump is packing the judiciary with insane, young, whackjobs. So, really, the very people who are so upset with liberals have a vested interest, at least right now, in keeping the Federal government together as-in.

It makes me believe that maybe the only thing stopping open secessionist talk is the fact that Hillary Clinton lost. It makes me think that had Clinton won, one of the first crisis she would have had to address was a honest-to-God secessionist movement. What’s so troublesome is this problem isn’t going away. If you wanted to make a real historical analogy of all this, I might propose that we’re in, say, the 1857 era. We’re in that era of American history where the nation was tearing itself apart. So, should Trump lose in four years, watch out.

So, for the next four to eight years, we’ll be in a slow-mo Cold Civil War that will, in fits and starts, grind towards an actual secession of a few states. The actual make up of such a secessionist crisis is kind of puzzling.

Which states would bolt and why? Would it even be states at all, but rather some sort of coup in a few states? The reason why I suggest the latter is it is much more difficult for, say, South Carolina to bolt the Union because of, well, race. I just can’t see African Americans willingly joining disgruntled whites to leave the Union through some sort of secessionist convention. That leads to the idea of something a bit more violent and scary.

If not some Southern state, then which states would want to leave the Union? My guess is some state in the upper West where there aren’t any minorities. They would do it just out of spite. Though Texas is careening towards a bizarre enough Right wing hellscape that maybe they would be the state to do it.

Really, I just can’t see the Right being able to get enough leverage to start a secessionist crisis because Trump has a vested interest in keeping the government together. He’s much more likely to bend over backwards to give the insane, surreal 35% of the population that would be the most interested in secession everything they wanted. That would then make the whole situation moot.

That raises the issue of the center-Left seceding. I just don’t see that happening. While there was talk of California bolting the Union, that has subsided dramatically. That, then, raises the issue of why would the surreal Right be so fixated on leaving the Union despite getting everything they wanted.

That’s a tough one. I don’t have any answer to that. It would be a great historical irony if there was a secessionist crisis under Trump. The most likely scenario of that happening would be if in four or eight years a center-Left presidential candidate won. THEN, I could see Trump presiding over the dissolution of the Union quite easily.

But would there be a Second Civil War at all? Is it possible that we’re so divided that the “wayward sisters” that wished to leave the Union — whichever states they may be — would be allowed to “part in peace?” So, a lot of it would boil down to leadership. It could go either way. Either the Blue states bolt and join Canada or the Red states blot under a center-Left president and there (might) be a “hot” civil war. I’m not suggesting that a center-Left president would be more bloodthirsty, but I do think a center-Left president would be more likely to fight for the survival of the Union.

Regardless, we should all keep an eye on the surreal, bizarre extreme Right. That’s where tomorrow’s talking points for the Republican Party come from and before you know it secessionist talk may be something we all have to deal with.

Shelton Bumgarner is the editor and publisher of The Trumplandia Report. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail.com.

The Resistance & Trump’s ‘Malevolence Tempered by Incompetence’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I will admit that I was white hot angry for month after Donald Trump won in November because of the political rhetoric coming out of the Trump campaign. It seemed as though Trumplandia was going to be a fascist state and that was going to be that.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the Reichstag Fire.

It turns out, Trump is such an incompetent administrator that in the immortal words of Lawfare Blog, Trumplandia’s political power was “malevolence tempered by incompetence.” So, while Trump definitely has autocratic leanings — he definitely wants to be one, at least — he just doesn’t have the mental wherewithal needed to do it.

So, while Trump is like a bizarre version of Chancy Gardner in Being There, he simply doesn’t have the mental focus to actually make himself a quasi-autocrat. So, what’s happening is American civil society, while put off balance by Trump’s victory, is slowly, every so slowly beginning to figure out how to address the Trumplandia conundrum.

Thus, to draw upon a World War II analogy, Hitler would have probably have taken over the world, but for his own personality quirks, foibles and failings. Trump’s efforts to co-op the Establishment in a weird Vichy America scenario only got as far as the Republicans who are pretty much completely complicit at this point.

Now, there we can’t take too much comfort in Trump’s sheer incompetence. Trump really wants to do serious damage and from what I can tell, he’s well on his way to doing just that by packing the Federal bench with complete nut jobs. The way things are going, within 20 years, all those young insane Federal judges will make A Handmaid’s Tale look like a documentary. And that doesn’t begin to address other factors. A major terrorist attack on US soil, or a disastrous weather event or a wag the dog war with Iran or North Korea would allow Trumplandia to grow and expand in power virtually overnight. No amount of incompetence on Trump’s part would save us then. We would really be on our own then.

I would then suggest that The Resistance use the breathing room afford by Trump’s complete inability to seal the deal when it comes to establishing Trumplandia to organize, organize, organize. We need to stay engaged and we need to use whatever personal skills we may have to help the cause. We have to stay forever vigilant. If you’re a good writer, then write a screenplay about Trumplandia. If you have money, contribute to a the campaign of a Democrat in a flip-able district or State.

One thing I worry about is the possibility that should there be a major terrorist attack on American soil that the Internet will be the first victim. I’m concerned that something we take for granted now — ready access to the Internet, will end. Things like a national PIN service for using the Internet is something I’m sure Trump might think up.

If you really want to get paranoid there is the chance that Trump might use a terrorist attack or a wag the dog war as an excuse to do something otherwise unimaginable — change the Constitution itself. There is already a move afoot to call a Constitutional Convention it just seems to much like something Trump might latch on, given the opportunity.

We just can’t be lulled into a false sense of security. The Resistance has to be creative in the ways it holds the line against creeping fascism. Being innovative with technology and the arts seems like something that would really help the situation. Someone designing a “Twitter Killer” might be a way to starve Trumplandia of media oxygen.

But I don’t know. We have to be careful. We have to stay engaged. We can’t allow ourselves to get burnt out in our outrage. This is going to be a long struggle, one that could take the better part of a decade to complete.

Trump As A Celebrity, Redux

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It really gets on my nerves that some people refuse to accept and acknowledge that Donald Trump was a celebrity under both the most narrow and the most broad use of that word. These center-Right people can’t do it, they try to downplay it, because if they don’t they then have to accept that Left-leaning celebrities had a right to give their opinion in the 2016 election.

You can debate all you like the merits of Hillary Clinton as a candidate, but to her defeat means center-Left celebrities should keep their political views to themselves — WHEN YOU VOTED FOR A CELEBRITY — really blows my mind.

I guess the reason why this is such a pet peeve for me is it is such a obvious ignoring of some cold hard facts that I, myself, experience, that it causes some serious cognitive dissidence on my part. I want these people to admit that they are being hypocrites. I don’t want them to say it’s ironic, I want them to actually say what is so glaringly obvious: to suggest that center-Left celebrities shouldn’t give their opinion is hypocrisy.

It’s all very tragic. I will never get what I want and so this pet peeve simmers in my mental juices. I just want to hear that word, hypocracy, so bad. But I really need to accept that I will never hear it. I just have to give up on that particular issue.

The Resistance Has To Accept The New Normal Of Trumplandia

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It is too easy for members of The Resistance to get caught up in the moment and think that Donald Trump is going to resign or be impeached and convicted anytime soon. If the Washington scandals of the past are any indication, we have, at least, a year of this imbroglio ahead of us, if not far longer.

The American system of government is such that it really is nearly impossible to impeach and convict a president. It just doesn’t happen. And, really, given how partisan things are and how complicit the Vichy Republicans are in TrumpRussia, even if collusion is proven between Trump “satellites” and the Russians, there is a real chance that the Vichy Republicans will just shrug and tell us that the truth is now known and we should just move on.

That doesn’t begin to address the very real possibility that a year from now when the mythical “blue wave” seems about to come crashing down on Congress, that Trump may address the nation, apologize and admit to what happen then pardon and fire everyone involved and ask the nation to move on. He did something similar during the Access Hollywood tape incident and there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again. When he knows he’s trapped, when he knows there is absolutely no way out other than apologize, he has no problem doing just that. A lot of people on the center-Right would be appeased and because of gerrymandering, it’s possible that would be enough to prevent the Congress from flipping. That doesn’t even begin to address a major terrorist attack or a wag the dog type war with Iran or North Korea.

One thing that really bothers me is how some on the Right say they want to vote for Trump again even more whenever people like me get upset and outraged over something Trump has done. It makes it very difficult for us to have any type of discussion at all.

Another thing that really bothers me is that even if I should get what I want — which is Trump’s impeachment and conviction — the very moment it becomes obvious that that, in fact, will happen, there will be the “Pence pivot” on the part of Republicans and they will say they wanted Mike Pence to be president all along. It is a very sad commentary on how things are these days that we have to deal with such surreal partisan ways of thinking.

At this point, we just don’t know how history will look at this point in time. It could be that it will be seen as a hiccup like Iran-Contra, or it could be see as something significantly more important like Watergate. We just don’t know. We are in the middle of a bizarre and unprecedented era. This new normal is taking some getting used to because the center-Right wants to keep re-litigating the 2016 election and the Obama years, while the center-Left just stays apoplectic over the latest incredibly bonkers thing that Trump has done.

As such, it is very possible that Trump will not only survive, but prosper. The Resistance could be split in 2020 and he could walk right through the middle of it. Trump is a moron, but he’s strangely politically adept in a ways that I don’t fully understand. So The Resistance really, really needs to stop getting outraged so quickly and so often and focus on the real issues at hand, not the scandal outburst of the moment. It’s too easy to get distracted from the horrific things Trump is doing policy wise because of the latest shiny bauble of an outrage.

Having said all of this, The Resistance as part of this New Normal needs to keep an eye on what’s really at stake. Trump is forcing through completely bonkers people to be put on the Federal bench, Obamacare is being replaced with secret legislation and overall it seems as though 20 years from now the consquences of Trumplandia will only slowly be understood.

All I can say is what I always say at this point — stay engaged. Don’t get worn down by Trumplandia. Don’t tune out. Don’t let it all become white background noise. Stay focused. We’re going to have to suffer for a few years, but hopefully, despite everything, we can eventually get things to swing back to some sort of normal situation again.

But maybe not. It could be, like Watergate, that TrumpRussia will usher in a new, dark period in our political history that will reverberate for decades to come. That is something we really need to take into consideration. It’s very possible that that is what is going to happen. That is painful to think about, but it’s very real possibility.

Shelton Bumgarner is the editor and publisher of The Trumplandia Report. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail.com

Of The Resistance, Watergate, TrumpRussia & The Coming ‘Pence Pivot’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

In some ways, the similarities between Richard Nixon and Donald Trump are spooky and in other ways, they’re just not there. Nixon was actually, like, smart and stuff, while Trump is a pretty big moron. As I have said before, Trump is kind of like the movie Being There’s Chancy Gardner on mushrooms. He’s weirdly politically adept in a horribly divisive way.

I have Watergate on the brain because it’s the 45 anniversary of the weekend the original break-in took place and it’s pretty obvious that we’re not even in the second act of this tragedy. The story started on Nov. 9th, the inciting incident was the firing of Jim Comey and now we’re waiting for something to push the protagonist into the second act. The thing that comes to me off the top of my head would be Trump firing Bob Muller. That seems to make the most sense. But we’ll see.

Remember, Watergate took two full years to play out and that took place in the context of far less partisanship, much different technology and a president who had the good sense to at least keep his bizarre ramblings to himself — if albeit on tape. One thing about TrumpRussia that makes it worse than Watergate is the foreign aspect. But just look at the parts of the scandal we have to wade through in the coming years.

1. Possible collusion between Trump’s “satellites” and Russian hackers
2 What is the deal with Flynn?
3. The firing of Jim Comey.
4. All sorts of weird money issues.
5. Enormous, epic and glaring violations of the emoluments clause.

One thing is for sure, we have at least a year of this bizarre drama ahead of us. I give it a year because about a year from now is when the 2018 mid-term elections will really begin to heat up. So it seems as though there is a real chance — if the Access Hollywood tape is any indication — that Trump may very well apologize to the nation for what happen, admit that his “satellites” did collude with the Russians and then pardon everyone he can think of while firing Bob Muller. That would be one tactic he might use to get himself out of his sticky wicket.

If he doesn’t do something like that, the he may very well just drag Bob Muller’s reputation through the mud to such an extent that in the eyes of the center-Right at least, there won’t be any credibility to anything the says. If something like that can happen to John Kerry, then it can happen to anyone in Washington.

One interesting thing is I have a feel that at the very moment that people like me — the center-Left and people on the other side — the center-Right — can agree that Trump has to go, the center-Right will, without blinking, do a “Pence pivot” and say no matter what, it was all worthwhile to get a President Pence. That is mind boggling and so outrageous — and so easy to imagine to happening — that I have to say it makes me kind of depressed. We won’t have any moment in time when both sides agree that Trump was a tragic mistake that could have been avoided.

Within moments, we’ll go from fighting over Trump to fighting over Pence without the center-Right missing a beat. Some about the “Pence pivot” is so intellectually dishonest that it makes me white hot. People don’t really vote for the veep, they vote for the president. All of this tragedy that we’re wading into could have been avoided if people had just seen Trump at the time for what he is — an existential threat to the Republic.

It is all very sad and unsettling and makes you wonder how history will view TrumpRussia 20 or 40 years from now. Will it be seen as “worse than Watergate,” or something more along the lines of Iran-Contra or Whitewater. If Trump plays his cards right, he definitely go go the Ronald Reagan Iran-Contra route, even though Trump is no Reagan and TrumpRussia is a lot worse than Iran-Contra.

One thing The Resistance really needs to keep its eye on, instead of risking outrage fatigue, is the agenda that Trumplandia is pushing through while we’re all busy being upset over the details of TrumpRussia. We need to keep an eye on how Trump is attempting to pack the Federal bench with insane people. We need to keep an eye on the secret efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare in the Senate. We need to keep and eye on the effort to generally destroy the social welfare state that, ironically enough, many Trump voters desperately need.

Regardless, there are no easy answers. As I have said, history doesn’t go in a straight line. We’re barely in the middle of the TrumpRussia scandal era. We’ve got, at a minimum another year of all of this ahead of us and it could be much longer than that if you through in a major terrorist attack or a wag the dog war with Iran or North Korea.

All I can say is keep your emotional powder dry. Stay energized. Stay engaged. Don’t get overwhelmed. Vote. Be willing to talk to someone you disagree with, even if you think there’s no chance of changing their mind. It’s the only way we’re going to make it through this tragic event.

Some Things The Resistance Needs

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As I keep saying, I’m hard at work on a novel about this bizarre era we live in, so I kind of have all of this on the brain right now. Here are two things I’ve mentioned before that The Resistance needs that I will review.

1. A Gawker-Like Website
The Resistance needs a Gawker-Like — or Spy Magazine — for this era. We need a go-to site for woke commentary in blog form about what’s going on in this era. Trump isn’t going anywhere and the sooner we understand that, the better. It seem as though some people think they shouldn’t start anything that would help The Resistance because they think Trump is going to resign or be impeached sometime soon. That just isn’t going to happen. I have suggested Playboy could be the media organization that would most benefit from such a thing, but it doesn’t seem they’re going to pay me any attention or even know that I’m talking about it.

2. A Twitter Killer
We need a better mousetrap. Twitter is great in some ways, but a real pain in the but Trump became president, in part, because of his use of Twitter. All of this is insane. We need something that uses the concepts of the old Usenet from 20 years ago in a modern way. At least I thin we do.

Anyway, no one cares. No one is listening to me. We’re going to just suffer as the Trump era grinds on and nothing changes, except for the worst.