Category: Hindsight 2020

A DeSantis Presidency Would Mean The End Of American Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Republican Party, on an existential basis, no longer believes in traditional American democracy. They’re fascists and, as such, the moment they gain the presidency again, that’s it, the end. It’s not like Republicans hide this cold hard, fact, either — they won’t shut up about how they think the United States is a “constitutional republic” and NOT a democracy.

So, the clock is ticking. It definitely seems as though America has two choices as the moment — either we peacefully side into autocracy under Ron DeSantis or things grow far, far more interesting on a historical basis if Trump happens to win a second term. With DeSantis, the general autocratic drift of American politics will happen in a rather blase manner.

If DeSantis can’t get around Trump for the Republican nomination, then Trump, unto himself, could cause a National Divorce and, as such, a Second American Civil War.

But we have to take seriously the DeSantis threat. Form follows function so, once we’re an autocracy there’s every reason to believe that DeSantis will consolidate power just like every other autocrat and pretty much be in power for the rest of his life.

Things may not change for the average American at first but once the process of becoming an autocratic state begins in force, the question becomes do we stop around Hungary or Turkey or do we continue down the path of autocracy towards something around Nazi Germany or Putin’s Russia? At the moment, I honestly can’t tell you one way or another. Though, I do fear that because of America’s original sin of race that we could endup settling around Nazi Germany and then things get REALLY DARK.

Of course, it doesn’t help that too many center-Left people want to debate how many pronouns can dance on the head of a pin instead of taking practical, real world steps to stop the rise of autocratic fascism in the United States.

I don’t have any ready answers for you. But I do fear that things could be pretty bonkers between now and spring 2025.

What Am I Getting Wrong About A Possible Second American Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that we’re in 2023, I find myself thinking about how likely it is that we may, in fact, have a Second American Civil War because of the passions of the 2024 presidential cycle. I continue to wrack my mind as to what I could possibly be getting wrong about the various dystopian hellscape scenarios that I’ve managed to come up with.

I continue to believe that if a 2ACW happens, it’s going to happen because Blue States refuse to bend a knee to ascendant Red States. As much as Reds want to murder people like me in cold blood using the rules of war, not law, in the end, they really don’t have any reason to start a civil war — they’re going to get everything they want via regular old dysfunctional politics.

It seems to me there are a number of milestones we still have to reach before we have a better sense of how things are going to sort out in late 2024, early 2025 between Election Day and Certification Day. We still don’t know if Trump is going to ever be held legally accountable for his massive, on-going crime spree. If he is indicted, then likelihood that he will be the 2024 Republican nominee grows significantly.

Additionally, there is the issue of how SCOTUS will rule on the “Independent Legislature” concept. If they give individual states significantly more leeway when it comes to the practical administration of elections that could very well be the United States striking an iceberg. It won’t be obvious at first, but when the time comes, the MAGA state legislatures of swing states might feel like they could step in and appoint their own electors, damn the will of the people. We’re not a democracy after all, right you fucking MAGA cocksuckers?

The last issue, the one that could really decide America’s fate is that of the debt ceiling. If MAGA Republicans in the House push America in to its first-ever default, then, well, the conditions are there for MAGA — and Trump — to come roaring back in 2024. They won’t even have to cheat to win, but Trump’s second term agenda will be so fucking radical that that, unto itself, could force the hand of Blue States and provoke a National Divorce, which, in turn would cause a Second American Civil War.

Then, of course, there are a few wildcards that I simply can’t game out one way or another. The issue of how old Biden is weighs on my mind a great deal. Harris is very untested and it would be a massive clusterfuck if Biden shuffled off this mortal coil at just the wrong moment in the post-election process. You thought 2020 was bad with the “Stop The Steal” bullshit, just imagine Biden’s Electors being up for grabs and Trump (or someone like him) ranting about how they should vote for him “for the sake of the nation.”

Anyway, I’m always wrong. It’s very possible that we’ll somehow muddle through the 2024 election and all my doom and gloom will look very foolish. But even if that is the case, there continue to be some significant tectonic issues with the American political system that we’re going to be confronted with sooner or later.

The Fucking Woke Hypocrisy of FilmTok Gets On My Nerves

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, I got beef with the film reviewing community of Tik-Tok. Too often, they go out of their fucking woke way to shit on movies like Avatar — Way of Water for some bullshit woke reason.

Fuck this test.

And, yet, they liked Babylon?

I don’t get it. I really liked Babylon, too, but you would think the tender hearted people of woke FilmTok would not be able to bear how gratuitous and over the top the movie was. I’m reminded of the one time I used Twitter clone Mastodon, only to be driven off the service by fucking woke cocksuckers who jumped on me the moment I didn’t follow their strict woke orthodoxy. They, too, did not see the contradiction when they told me they like Dave Chappelle and Richard Pryor.

It’s because of bullshit like that that we’re probably going to lose our democracy. When “cultural Leftists” have such a strict orthodoxy that they attack anyone who doesn’t know the ends and outs of their “woke” agenda that the efforts to keep America a democracy falls into serious, serious trouble.

I just had to get that out of my system. I fucking hate the woke orthodoxy because of how dangerous it is for democracy. Sometimes you want to tell a story that will “trigger” people — because that’s the whole point! The issue should be telling a great story, not if two women have a conversation about something other than a man.

Fuck that.

My frustration with the “woke” agenda grows the better my first novel gets. Given how much representation there is in this novel — and who I am as a CIS white male — half the readership will think I’m too woke and half its audience will think I’m an evil representative ogre of the patriarchy because I’m writing from a non-white, non-male POV at times. (Ok, maybe a lot.)

But that’s my vision and I’m willing to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune over it.

What Is The Deal With Tech Bro David Sacks?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really enjoy listening to the All-In podcast because it challenges me, forces me to listen to people I generally don’t agree with politically. They are interesting, intelligent people who just so happen to find fascism way, way, too palatable. When your metrics for assessing something miss the issue of what is morally right, your politics are all fucked up.

Because, literally, the exact same reasoning that several people on the All-In podcast give for various degrees of support for Trump and MAGA could have been used by German industrialists in the 1930s.

But it’s David Sacks who shocks me with his consistently bad hot takes. His politics are identical to a relative of mine and so it is useful to listen to his bullshit for the next time I find myself debating politics with said relative. Sacks is “all in” with being a fifth columnist who supports Russia over Ukraine and the United States.

He is very intense and seems to have a huge fucking chip on his shoulder. It’s all very weird. But he’s cogent enough in his terrible hot takes that you find yourself listening to him and weighing different counter-arguments you might use to point out his hypocrisy.

Anyway, the point is — I’m growing very alarmed at the recent shift in politics among Tech Bros. They are very receptive to America’s new brand of fascism and, in the end, when we maybe need their support to stop the last seizure of power by fascists, they won’t be there for us.

Why The ‘Canceling’ of ‘TERF’ JK Rowling Makes Me Nervous

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m aware that JK Rowling has gone out of her way to aggravate things with her fans over her strident anti-trans views, I still find myself becoming a little nervous over the whole situation.

LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 13: J.K Rowling attends the UK Premiere of “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald” at Cineworld Leicester Square on November 13, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Samir Hussein/WireImage)

What’s happened with her and Dave Chappelle is an example of an orthodoxy that has developed on the Left that is going to do democracy no favors as we careening towards a dark future in late 2024, early 2025.

I just want to tell an interesting story to millions of people, but I also know that I’m something of a drunk kook who doesn’t always follow the media narrative on issues of the day. As such, I mull over all the things I done with my life — especially in South Korea — and I wince. It’s way too easy to think of various ways someone might be aghast at this or that thing I did then or, hell, now and feel an urge to “cancel” me.

I’m just not perfect. I’m made a lot mistakes in my life — usually with alcohol involved — and now I find myself full of angst about how I’m going to explain all that if I ever “make it big.” (Not that there is any reason, at the moment, to think that is going to happen.)

I know I’m overthinking things a great deal. And, yet, I like to make my abstract fears concrete and worrying about being “canceled” when no one really cares about me at all right now is part of that.

I really struggle with the JK Rowling thing because she’s an example of someone being “canceled” that my Traditionalist relatives can point to when they essentially decide they want to vote for autocratic fascism on Election Day 2024. It doesn’t matter the extenuating circumstances, they just think “famous author life ruined because of the radical gay agenda of the woke cancel culture mob and it could happen to ME.”

That’s literally what they will think when they vote away America’s democratic birthright. Literally. How do you fix that issue?

What The Fuck Is Going On With Tech Bros Becoming Fascist-Friendly?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m at a loss as to what’s going on with Tech Bros these days. I find myself listening to the latest episode of the All-In podcast and I find myself extremely perplexed as to how “all in” the Tech Bros of the podcast are when it comes to various shades of fascism.

I thought Tech Bros were all about libertarianism, not working hand-in-hand with the fascist movement to curtail freedoms. But it is very interesting that I can’t help but think of how German Industrialists were “all in” with the Nazis in the 1930s because relative to their economic and financial metrics they felt they were the best choice.

But I will admit that listening to the All-In podcast is great to help me develop rhetorical anti-bodies to fascism and fifth columnists who want us to destroy the post-World War 2 global liberal order so we can dance with Putin and autocratic fascism.

It is also interesting that people like David Sacks use the term “populist” when they really mean “fascism.” The whole situation is very concerning because it’s a sign that fascism continues to be very popular in the United States and is only going to grow even more powerful if we have a Petite Singularity in the context of a moderate-to-severe recession in 2023 – 2024.

‘It’s a Sin’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is someone close to me who is on the exact opposite of the culture wars from me. He wants free speech to be absolute unless he disagrees with that speech, then, “fuck you, lib.”

One of the things that really enrages him is the “gay agenda” of the “woke cancel culture mob.” He thinks being gay is a “sin” and the occasional excesses of the center-Left on that front make him apoplectic. I honestly don’t know how you fix that particular problem. In fact, it’s a sign of how the country is tearing itself apart on a macro level.

On a basic level, I agree with this person on a lot of things, but we express our values in a totally different way. But the issue of the “gay agenda” of the “woke cancel culture mob” is definitely something we don’t agree on. I’m extremely blase about such things — I just don’t care — but this person I’m thinking of really gets worked up about it.

When one of the two sides begins to believe that people they disagree with politically are going to hell — that’s not exactly the greatest situation for your nation to be in. The whole situation is fucked up and, as I keep saying, on a macro basis, America is in serious, serious trouble.

If two things happen — a severe recession and Trump getting indicted — happen between now and Election Day 2024, there is a very good chance that Trump will be in a position to, unto himself, cause the destruction of the United States simply by being himself.

But I’m aways wrong, so lulz. Who knows.

Don’t Count Malignant Ding-Dong Trump Out Just Yet For 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are three things that if they happen in conjunction between now and Election Day 2024 could make Trump a real contender for a second term and, as such, single handedly causing a Second American Civil War.

Indictment
If Jack Smith indicts Trump, then ding-dong Trump instantly becomes a far Right martyr — again — and, as such, he gets a lot of momentum again. Because, as we know, Republicans are in love with “idea” of Trump. They don’t really like Trump as a person, they like what a fighter he is.
A Perfect Storm
If there is a chatbot revolution in the context of a moderate to severe recession in 2023 – 2024, then, suddenly, an indicted Trump really becomes a powerful force in American politics. Again. Even if he continues to be an absolute lazy idiot, if the country was reeling from millions of jobs being rendered moot by a chatbot revolution in the middle of a severe recession…Trump is going to the show.
Ron DeSantis Flames Out
It could be that DeSantis just isn’t ready for a primetime, national audience once he leaves the favorable confines of Florida. He could just not be someone who can handle the direct spotlight of the national press. Who knows.

The Theoretical Power Politics Of Nominating Trump For Speaker of The House

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is very dumb and a waste of time, but I guess I’ve had enough soju that I feel compelled to run this particular scenario. How, exactly, might someone put Trump’s name forward to be Speaker of The House?

Remember, the key thing is, at this point, whomever did it — presumably a Republican — would be playing with fire because Trump might lose. At the same time, even AOC wouldn’t risk nominating Trump– to troll Republicans — because he might win.

But, let’s say, some GQP backbencher grows so frustrated with what’s going on that they go nuts and put Trump’s name up for consideration to be Speaker. This is where things grow curious. If Trump really was a Great Man of History like, say, Hitler, he would be all over the idea of being Speaker, if, for no other reason than he puts him in line of succession to be POTUS again.

And, yet, Trump is so very fucking lazy and so fucking dumb that he just doesn’t have the cognitive ability to do an obvious autocratic play like trying to be Speaker. If Trump wasn’t so lazy, he would threaten to primary anyone who didn’t vote for him to be Speaker the moment it became a real possibility.

But, here we are, with Trump sitting this whole process out.

And, yet, I think if he was nominated, he would get at least 60% of the Republican caucus to vote for him on the first ballet. Just that might be enough to pique ding-dong’s interest to the point that he would start demanding he be nominated again so he could win.

If Trump became Speaker, it would be a total fucking shitshow which could very well directly lead to a Second American Civil War if Trump impeached both Biden and Harris then threatened Red States would leave the Union if the Senate didn’t vote to convict.

But, again, I’m really, really overestimating Trump’s cognitive ability. He’s an idiot.

My Theory About The Real Problem With Picking A New House Speaker

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know anything about anything, but my general hunch is the reason why House Republicans can’t seem to manage to name a Speaker is what they really want is a Speaker Trump. Or, at least, a sizable number of House Republicans would only really be satisfied if they could put his name up for a vote.

Speaker Trump

Or, put another way, a big chunk of House Republicans want an actual fucking fascist to be Speaker of the House. But because that chunk isn’t 218 votes, we are where we are now — with no Speaker. Because that’s the general sense I get from the MAGA Nazi chatter on Twitter: they really want a far, far Right Speaker who will burn the whole system to the ground in an effort to move us as close to an autocratic fascist state as possible.

It will be interesting to see how far all of this progresses. It will be interesting to see if we have to wait a few weeks for all of this to get sorted out or if it will wrap up pretty quick. At the moment, it seems as though this particular crisis isn’t going anywhere.

It makes you wonder what we would don if there was a major domestic or international crisis that would require the entirety of the Federal government to be functioning.

It also makes one wonder what a Speaker Trump would be like in practical terms. I think it would be a complete shit show — just like the first Trumplandia — and it would be a lot of Trump thrashing around looking for an excuse to crash the economy and or impeach as much of the Biden Administration as possible.