I May Have Two Stable Chapters

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think it’s possible that the first two chapters of the third draft of my novel are now stable. I *hope* that this will mean that things will go much, much faster. But one problem I’ve discovered is even though the first two chapters are strong, all the changes I’ve made in those first two chapters are kind of forcing my hand.

In my mind, my heroine looks like Corrie Yee.

I’m going to have to rework huge parts of the rest of the novel to accommodate these improvements. And I had no idea that thinking up a new, better beginning for the novel would require so much work.

But, here I am, months after I hope to start to rewrite the novel in earnest, still somewhat spinning my wheels in the very beginning of the novel. I’ve also added about 30,000 new words to the novel — at least. The hope is, of course, that all these new, spicy scenes I’m working into the plot will turn this novel into a real page turner.

That’s the hope, at least. I know I’ve stumbled upon a really cool story. The question now is, of course, is my writing ability up to the task? And that doesn’t even begin to address my lingering fears about the rise of AI and the so-called “Fourth Turning” happening at some point in late 2024, early 2025.

But, at this point, I just want to finish the third draft sooner rather than later. I’m still shooting for April, 2024. That’s my goal. I just don’t want this to slip any further. I do not want it to be April 2025, I want April 2024.

That will give me time to pivot to the pre-flight work necessary to query in the fall of 2024, just as all hell may be about to break out.

The Rise Of The Agents

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though within 18 months the “Knowledge Navigator” shown above will finally — at last — be a reality. It seems possible that just as we reach the so-called “Fourth Turning” we will also reach something akin to a Petite Singularity in the sense that Agents will consume huge portions of the economy.

Add into the mix advances in robotics and, welp, I just don’t see what jobs will be left for humans to do, period. All of this — MIGHT — happen so fast that even ding-dong Trump might to address the notion of UBI as part of the 2024 election cycle.

It’s possible, but not probable. It could be that even if things advance as quickly as I suspect / fear, it will just all happen to fast for the slow-moving American political system to adapt and address it directly.

All I know is 2024 is shaping up to be a crazy year, one way or another. We’re now less than a year away from all the insane post-Election Night 2024 shenanigans that I fear might happen the moment it’s clear Trump is going to be re-elected.

But it’s possible that I’m over thinking things. Trump *may* lose and it won’t matter. We’ll punt our problems down the road another four years and it won’t be until 2029 that all of my dystopian hellscape predictions begin to come true.

At least I will — hopefully — be able to get a few of the six novels I want to write as part of this project done if that is the case.

But if agents really do take over sooner rather than later, the economic disruption could be astonishing. If we have AGI or something akin to “proxy humans” at our beck and call, then that’s millions and millions of jobs that will become moot overnight.

Things Should Now Go Really Fast With The Third Draft of My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My heroine, in my mind, looks a lot like Corrie Yee.
There are a lot — A LOT — of lingering known unknowns when it comes to the third draft of my novel. But I’m still pretty confident that I should be able to write much, much faster now. I know the general relationships of the characters and so now I have to root around in the specifics as I move forward through the story to write a solid alpha release of the third draft.

I hope to do that by around April 1st. But it’s going to be a real struggle. Sometimes, I feel like my life is falling apart and everything will be thrown up in the air at any moment in a way or ways that I just can’t predict.

I wish some of these people who read this blog on occasion from unexpected, exotic locales had some connection to the Hollywood industrial complex and would be interested in getting the novel published. It’s shaping up to be really good. With my luck, of course, they’ll just steal the idea and I’ll be forced to watch other people have some success from all my hard work.

Lulz.

I’ve Figured Out Trump’s 2025 Strategy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some scenarios for the day after tomorrow:

  1. Trump Loses — gives up
    It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
  2. Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce
    In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
  3. Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame)
    If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
  4. Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz
    If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
  5. Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution
    In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
  6. The 1872 Election Endgame
    Look it up. It’s bad

Here’s how malignant ding-dong Trump plans to rule starting in late January 2025 if he wins re-election.

On a basic level, his animal brain knows he can rely upon Red States to give him free reign to be a more traditional autocrat. As such, he realizes he has two things standing his way — Blue States and the “Deep State” found lurking within the Federal government.

So, what he believes he can do is purge the Federal government of anyone who opposes him, knowing that he can rely upon the MAGA hacks of SCOTUS to back him up. He will also use his pardon power in a gratuitous manner to allow his fascist toadies to do any number of otherwise illegal things.

Then what he does is “crush” opposition in Blue States using the U.S. Military using the Insurrection Act. So, in Blue parts of the country Trump plans to rule not as an autocrat, but as a military dictator. Meanwhile, he will browbeat the national press so no one will know how bad things have gotten in Blue States. Remember — in an autocracy, communication can be a weapon. I could even see domestic social media being regulated to an unprecended extent as 2025 progresses.

Ok. There are some weaknesses to this plot. The key one being the United States is pretty porous to the point that if the U.S. Military was killing thousands of people in Blue States, it would inevitably be discovered in Red and Purple States. ALSO, I’m not 100% sure that the U.S. Military is totally prepared to be Trump’s MAGA SA-like goons.

But I have to give Trump credit, he’s a lot closer to being the type of autocrat he admires. But there are at least two issues he simply can not avoid — the whole setup will be EXTREMELY UNSTABLE and he’s fucking old.

I feel better now, though. I have figured out what we’re up against should Trump win in 2024.

Idle Musing About How The Canucks & Other Allies Might Help Depose Tyrant Trump

by Ender

Some scenarios for the day after tomorrow:

  1. Trump Loses — gives up
    It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
  2. Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce
    In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
  3. Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame)
    If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
  4. Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz
    If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
  5. Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution
    In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
  6. The 1872 Election Endgame
    Look it up. It’s bad

I’m not advocating anything! I just like to run scenarios and, as such, I like to look at whatever is bothering me from different angles. As such, let’s revisit something I’ve written about before — what the fuck would the global reaction to Tyrant Trump attempting to impose a military dictatorship on the United States be?

If things get as bad as I fear — and they may not — and 1 million smug Twitter liberals flee the country, the Canada will be awash in American political refugees the moment Trump is declared the winner of the 2024 election. They got plenty of land and all the refugees would be wealthy, well educated and well trained, so they would be welcomed to open arms.

But if ding-dong Trump started get too bad, the natural temptation of the Canucks, NATO, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan would be to try to help the democratic resistance to the would-be Tyrant King Trump. It would be like a reverse Underground Railroad with arms coming into the US via the “open border” to the north. (I’M NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING!!!)

It does make me wonder what would happen if Trump literally declared himself king. Would THAT be enough for my Traditionalist relatives — who I love dearly — to finally say, “I’m out.”

Or maybe not. Maybe the weird cultural, political and economic problems that have bent American politics would just be too much to the point that Trump could literally declare himself a king…and it would still be a lulz as long as brown kids were back in cages.

Trump is upset because Blue Meanies have hurt his feelings.
But things would have to get REALLY BAD for that sort of thing to happen. And, yet, if Trump literally does put the U.S. Military in the streets of major American cities because they’re populated by “Blue Meanies” then, oh boy, anything is possible.

Radical Moderates: Renegades Of Funk

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Some scenarios for the day after tomorrow:

  1. Trump Loses — gives up
    It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
  2. Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce
    In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
  3. Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame)
    If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
  4. Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz
    If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
  5. Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution
    In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
  6. The 1872 Election Endgame
    Look it up. It’s bad

    Oh boy. Now that it is clear to me that Trump is so fucking stupid that he wants he thinks he can get away with imposing an actual military dictatorship on the United States…yikes.

It would take a next level amount of stupidity on his part to try to do such a thing. But here we are, with the idea that that is exactly what Trump might try to do. Any other Republican and I would tell you to prepare for a garden variety autocracy.

But Trump’s fascination with the Insurrection Act is very, very troubling. If he actually tries to establish a military dictatorship because his abstract thinking ability is too weak to think of the power plays of an autocrat, we are all in A LOT of trouble.

And, yet, as I keep saying, I can’t fucking predict the future. There are plenty — plenty — of known unknowns that might allow us to punt all of our structural problems down the road. But if Trump goes full tyrant not as an autocrat, but as a would-be military dictator…you got me.

There just would be no viable endgame.

We would be going beyond just “bad optics” to the type of tyrannical behavior that might even make Traditionalists who just want brown children in cages again….to sit up and take notice.

Radical Moderates are found in William Safire’s novel “Freedom.”
If that were to happen, then a group of people not seen since the American Civil War might appear in American politics — Radical Moderates. These are people who are usually Traditionalists, but, for a very brief amount of time are willing to adopt otherwise radical measures because of tectonic forces of political history.

But maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe Trump will lose. Or something. We still have a year of stewing in our political juices to find out one way or another.

Things Are Getting A Lot Better With The Third Draft Of My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My heroine has the general phenotype of Corrie Yee.
I’m giving myself about a day to kind of chill out before throwing myself back into the novel. I do this every once in a while. In the past, when I had more money, I would go to NYC for a little Writer’s Retreat.

Alas, I now live in abject poverty.

Anyway, here are a revised first few scenes of the third draft. I’m well on my way to revising them, but this will give you some sense of where things stand.

A Bridge Too Far

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any understanding of what Tyrant Trump is chomping at the bit to do should he win re-election gives every indication that he doesn’t want to be an autocrat — he wants to be a military dictator.

There is a big difference between being an autocrat and being a military dictator. An autocrat — usually in the beginning at least — is willing to play by the rules of civil society. That has been a go-to play for every autocrat since Augustus Caesar.

And that’s what I’ve always assumed Trump would do. I thought he would use the basic elements of being a strong man as seen in Russia, Hungary and Turkey. But from what I can tell from his obsession with the Insurrection Act, Trump really does want to go full tyrant by being a military dictator.

His decision to go full tyrant maybe be out of a combination of how stupid he is and the simple fact that he doesn’t have a MAGA SA to knock heads. He thinks invoking the Insurrection Act is like fascist magic pixie dust that will solve all of his problems, being too stupid to realize if instead of “four dead in Ohio” we have “10,000 dead in LA” that the American populace could, collectively freak the fuck out.

EVEN IF Trump had some sort of an organized paramilitary arm of MAGA, the US of 2025 is not the same as Germany 1933. The United States is huge, decentralized, diverse and has a long, long tradition of a free society. You would have to have at least 500,000 MAGA SA members who could swoop into restive Blue States and knock heads.

And simply using the U.S. Military — an democratic institution itself — to get what you want just isn’t going to cut it. At least, I’d like to think so. I suppose I’m giving the U.S. Military too much credit by thinking that if there was some sort of collective action like a General Strike or a Women’s Strike that that might be enough to cause it to stand down — or even join any sort of movement to depose Tyrant Trump.

But there are many, many known unknowns. We’re still a year away from all of this and there is always a pretty good chance that Trump will not win, fade into political oblivion and everything will work itself out.

Potential Scenarios for late 2024, early 2025:

  1. Trump Loses — gives up
    It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
  2. Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce
    In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
  3. Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame)
    If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
  4. Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz
    If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
  5. Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution
    In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
  6. The 1872 Election Endgame
    Look it up. It’s bad.

Could The US Have A Military Coup In 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing to remember about Trump is he is so fucking stupid and lazy that he a one man stress test of the traditional American Constitutional order. As such, even though — EVEN THOUGH — America is spread eagle, ready and willing to get fucked by an autocrat, Trump is sooooo stupid and lazy that he could fuck things up.

America collectively ready on a political basis to slob the knob of an autocrat, but Trump is such a ham-handed lover that she might pull away because the vibes are all wrong. What I mean by that is, even with Agenda47 and other fascist ideas, Trump could push the average American to the point where they might be willing to participate in a General Strike or Women’s Strike, even though that would go against two centuries of American political and labor history.

But that would only happen if things grew REALLY EXTREME. Trump would have to be snatching the Clintons and Obamas off the street in a really conspicuous way for such things to happen. Whatever the Second Trump Administration was doing, it would have to be something so fucking tyrannical that your typical Traditionalist who just wants brown children in cages again would actually sit up and take notice.

That’s the great irony. If ANY OTHER Republican became president in 2025, they would be smart enough to be a “light touch” autocrat until they were powerful enough to finally strangle what’s left of American democracy. But Trump is soooooo stupid and lazy, he could very well cause Traditionalists to turn into Radical Moderates who will at least accept his overthrow at the hands of the U.S. Military.

But A LOT of things would have to go wrong for us to get to that point. Trump would really have to push the otherwise pretty laid back American population to a breaking point. He would literally have to “lock her up” in such a way that the average American woman simply decides not to go to work for a few days until she’s released — at a minium.

At the moment — I just don’t see that happening. Americans just don’t have it in them. But, who knows?

So. My Celebrity Crush Alexa Chung Is 40.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The older I get the less I care about celebrities. I’m just glad to be alive. To have air in my lungs and a warm bed to sleep in. But apparently, witty “It Girl” Alexa Chung turned 40 this year.

Alexa Chung
This is of note to me for a number of reasons.

One is, her phenotype is the sweetspot for women I like. And the idea that even someone like her is now too old to have children (realistically) gives me pause for thought. I realize how fucking old I am and how I’m never going to be a grandfather, even if somehow, magically, my novel is a breakout hit and I somehow manage to right my otherwise loser life.

Also, I’ve come up with a number of characters in the six novel project I’m working on that are, in large part, inspired by the beautiful and talented Ms. Chung.

I continue to have a lowkey fear that the FBI is monitoring this site because they think I’m some sort of fucking stalker — I’m not, I swear! — but that the type of pings that would lead me to believe that haven’t happened of late, even when I gratuitously mention Ms. Chung in an effort to see what happens.

Anyway. Welcome to middle age, Ms. Chung. I had no idea you were so young compared to gray beard me. I’m sure your 40s will be great!