The Primetime Televised January 6th Hearings Will Be Compelling — But Ultimately Won’t Mean Jack Shit

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m looking forward to this month’s primetime January 6th hearings, but I have very ambivalent expectations. On one hand, I fully expect them to be compelling. On the other hand — meh. So what.

The United States is now not a democracy, but an anocracy and as such, lulz. Either we’re going to become a bull-blown autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war. The rot at the center of our political system is just too extensive. Epic, tectonic macro trends are at work and it will ultimately be up in the air which direction we go until the around the middle of late 2024.

I honestly don’t know what we’re going to do.

But the fact remains — we’re going to, as a nation, get a lot closer to understanding what happened on January 6th. Then collectively shrug and go back to hating each other.

For the time being, Republicans continue to be ascendant and there’s no reason to not think that the GQP will simply barrel over the center-Left and establish an American-flavored autocracy starting around 2025.

But, I suppose, there is small chance we’ll have a civil war. I don’t want one, and seeing’s believing that the American center-Left has it in it to start one.

If There Was A Second America Civil War, Which Side Would Leave In The ‘National Divorce?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have written about this before, but the continued trickle to this otherwise obscure site from people interested in the prospect of a Second American Civil War encourages me to write from every angle possible. Again, if necessary.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Ok, here’s where we have to make some assumptions. One assumption I’m going to make is that history will flip the script and it will be Blues, not Reds who want to leave the Union. The Reds are ascendant and should they start a civil war it would be one of the dumbest political screw ups in macro American history.

So, if a Second Civil War came to the United States, it would be started by Blues, not Reds, probably at some point in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. The war aim of the Blues would most likely be the “National Divorce” that the Reds keep salivating over.

But, because history loves, loves, loves irony, it will be Reds — probably forced by the U.S. Military — that will attack Blues when they try to leave the Union on the State level. Or, it could be that as Blue leave the Union, that the U.S. Military gets hollowed out as people within it leave for their home states and the US of Canada military, or whatever.

It could be that Reds demand Blues stay in the Union and we fight it out to see if Blues can start their own, new, Union or not. Or the fight is over “messy” states like Virginia and Texas that might implode because they don’t fit the easy definitions of “Blue” and “Red.”

This type of speculation is very difficult to do because there are so many factors that I simply can’t figure out. One is, will, for macro reasons, leadership that the center-Left definitely doesn’t have at the moment, rise to the occasion? I have my doubts, which is why I have my doubts about there being a civil war in the first place.

At the moment, we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. America will become another autocracy like Russia, Hungary or Turkey. In fact, that might be the biggest re-alignment of the 21st Century — the US ditching democracy altogether to join a new alliance of autocratic nations. Who knows, at this point, anything is possible.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.

President Gohmert?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Once you go through a clusterfuck like Trump as president, it can make you a little twitchy. So, we have to take seriously the idea that someone as bonkers as Rep. Louie Gohmert might run — and win — the White House if something happened to Trump. (What that might be, I don’t know.)

Or, to put it another way, we might really have something to cry about if it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee in 2024.

The thing about Gohmert is he really does know how the government works and if he, God forbid — became POTUS — he could really rise to the occasion in a bad, bad way.

Or, maybe I’m looking at it wrong.

What might happen would be Trump is the nominee in 2024 as expected and he picks Gohmert as his Veep and THAT is how Gohmert becomes POTUS. Or, put another way — keep a real close eye on who Trump picks to be his second term Veep.

And a lot of very smart, extremely ambitious men and women in Republican ranks know that too — the question is, of course, will DeSantis bend a knee to get to be Trump’s veep or will they have a political death match?

‘What is going to happen bad in the United States in June 2022’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A series of things are set to happen in the United States in June and July. Most of them have to do with SCOTUS rulings. A series of huge SCOTUS rulings will come out in June. As I understand it, besides Roe being overturned, we’ll also see a ruling on Affirmative Action.

But something just as big — in its own way — could be the televised January 6th hearings.

It’s possible that all of this could rile people up. And we haven’t even gotten to the point where we have to deal with the curse that it is August as a whole. But who knows. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward.

The End Of The Watergate ‘Scandal Narrative’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For about 40 odd years, there was an implied narrative to Washington scandals that originated directly from what we experienced with Watergate. And then Trump happened and, lulz, nothing matters. I’m reading the new Watergate history and it’s amazing how the Ur modern Washington scandal was like a real life political thriller.

There was cause and effect. And, most of all, there was accountabiilty.

With Trumplandia, there is no cause but no effect. We know everything that happened and, lulz, there is no criminal persecution. Nothing happens. Nothing matters. In fact, if anything, the more “criming” Trump and his ilk do, the more power they accrue because it shows how much power they really have. A lot of this has to do with FOX News existing. A lot of it has to do with the abject lack of shame on the part of Republicans. A lot of it has to do with how all politics is now national.

There is no middle ground.

So, Trump gets away with deep, severe political crimes every day and nothing happens. And, to date, nothing has happened. We are in a post-accountability era. Either we go all-in and have autocratic white minority rule, or we finally get some accountability as part of a civil war.

Take your pick.

Will Elon Musk Run For President?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is a complicated question. One, I have no idea. Two, at the moment, he couldn’t even if he wanted to — he was born to non-American parents in foreign countries soil (South Africa and Canada.)

President Musk?

But he is one of the wealthiest men in the world — and extremely weird — so it’s within reason to believe he might, on a lark, pour the necessary money into state legislatures to get them to pass a minor tweak to the Constitution that would allow him — and Arnold Schwarzenegger for that matter — to run for president despite not being “native born.”

Yet, it is very possible that Musk could do such a thing. He definitely has a similar vibe to Trump and he’s so fucking weird — and an actual billionaire — that he could become POTUS accidently on purpose.

He might run, but would he win? And which party would he run as?

I definitely think he might win as a Republican. And I’ll tell you why — he’s such a plutocrat that he’s the only person who could simply believe whatever he wants to believe and win the Republican nomination against Trump.

Musk is everything that Trump wants to be, but isn’t (to some degree.) In fact, I can honestly say that Musk is probably right now the only potential Republican nominee I might actually vote for.

But he couldn’t become MAGA. If he did, fuck that. The same rules would apply as they do with MAGA candidates. And, who knows, maybe Schwarzenegger might run.

Trump’s ‘Nixon 1972’ Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading the new Watergate history and I keep thinking about dingus Trump and how he did worse than that scandal when he woke up in the morning. But there is one issue that stands out so far from reading the book: Nixon was very stupid because the Watergate break in happened just about when it was clear he was going to win, no cheating necessary.

The same goes with Trump — even though Trump is demonstrably not as popular as he was at his height, with the entire Republican Party at his beck and call, I think Trump is a shoe-in to win 2024 without any cheating. And, yet, it’s so much a part of Trump’s character to cheat that he will do everything in his power to win, even if it means cheating even though he will win.

But the fact remains — we’re going to have a civil war or begin the final process of turning into an autocracy around 2024 – 2025. If we choose autocracy, there may be an American spin to it, but it will exist. We’ll have minority rule and be an autocratic state of blood and soil where Republicans have one party control — and change the Constitution soon enough.

Summer 2022 Shitshow

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my favorite blog posts of all time comes from Slate, which suggests that August should be abolished because, well, it sucks. All these bad things happen in August to the point that maybe we should just not have August.

It’s possible that summer 2022 could be one of the more interesting summers in American history. It could be, if nothing else, a precursor to a very turbulent fall where the Reds seize control of Congress and…just never let it go again. Biden and Harris will be impeached — repeatedly — starting in January 2023.

But let’s go back to this summer.

A number of important SCOTUS opinions will be handed down — chief among them being the over turning of Roe. The reaction to the end of Roe will ultimately be the thing that determines our future. If there is a shrug, then, lulz, we’re just going to become a Russian-style autocracy.

And there will be the January 6th Commission hearings in June. I don’t think there is anything that can possibly come out of those hearings that will make a difference. No one cares and no one will care. Lulz.

But if there are serious protests across the nation because of Roe being ended and other major rulings. Yet, time will only tell. It could go either way. We will know soon enough, I guess.

The First Impeachment Of Biden May Be A Near-Accident

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Republicans are notoriously bad at governance. So, it’s possible that when one of the more loony members of their caucus gets up on Day One of the new, Republican controlled House in 2023 and puts forth some Articles of Impeachment, they could very well pass.

And then, lulz, out of sheer embarrassment, Republican House leadership will send the Articles of Impeachment over to the newly-Republican controlled Senate and we spend far, far, far longer than we should in 2023 sitting through a Biden Impeachment trial.

Then, of course, Republicans things might break their way and Republicans might think up something with a microscopic grain of merit to go after Biden with and we’ll have Impeachment Trial Number 2.

Ugh.

How The MAGA New Right Could Get That Fucking Civil War They Want To Start So Bad

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, we have to accept that Red States starting a civil war at this point is silly. They’re politically ascendant and have every reason to just be patent and wait while we slowly become a Russian-style autocratic state. And YET, day after day I continue to get pings to this blog from people in the more rural portions of Red States from people obviously very interested in my dystopian hellscape civil war scenarios.

So, how, exactly, could Red States, rather than Blue States, start a civil war?

Well, one thing we have to do is define “civil war.” A bunch of good old boys grabbing their AR-15s and shooting dem dar librals is NOT a civil war. Maybe something akin to a second insurrection, but not a civil war. And, really, at this point, I think the Reds who want a civil war bandy the term around just because it’s the worst possible thing they can think of in response to this or that thing that Blues have done to annoy them this time.

But I’ll give the shithead Reds what they want — a civil war started by their side, not by my side. Here goes.

All I got, at this point, is things grow so white hot during the coming impeachment of both Biden and Harris after the Reds take control of Congress that Red States flip out and begin to leave the Union. This, but even more so if Biden for some reason succumbs to old age and it’s President Harris and Speaker Trump we’re talking about.

If Speaker Trump, in the middle of the impeachment trial of President Harris starts to rant about secession (or reTruths something about it) then, yeah, you fucking cocksucker Reds, you might just get your Second American Civil War.

Otherwise, lulz. It either doesn’t happen and we just become an autocracy, or it’s the BLUEs who start it because of a Certification Crisis around 2024 – 2025.