Shall We Play A Game? — Wargaming The #Trump V. #Mueller Political War

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It seems pretty obvious to me that every moment Trump doesn’t strike first against Mueller is a moment wasted. It seems from a politically strategic standpoint it would be best for Trump if he struck first and struck first hard. I would fire Mueller as quickly as humanly possible, then pardon everyone involved in what happened and then hunker down for the next two months. I don’t understand why Trump would wait until either Mueller strikes first or the House officially flips.

It just doesn’t make any sense.

So maybe something’s going on that I don’t know about. Maybe, there’s a lot going on that I don’t know about. But I will be shocked if this “phony war” between Trump and Mueller lasts until January. It makes a lot more sense for Trump to strike Muller now during the holidays than wait until people might have their fully attention focused on Trump in January.

I honestly don’t know what is going to happen at this point.

V-Log: Conservative Media Goes Silent Online, Trump & Mueller Continue The ‘Phony War’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

How long is this going to last? What’s next?

V-Log: Trump & Mueller’s ‘Phony War’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I think we’re in a phony war between Trump and Mueller. It’s just a matter of who strikes first at this point. I keep trying to figure out what Trump is going to do and I can’t figure it out. I do the same with Mueller and it’s even more fuzzy.

V-Log: Trump, Mueller & The ‘Dead Hand’ Of History

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Some thoughts on 2019.

V-Log: The Sunken Place — Trump’s Strategy With Mueller Going Forward

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Some thoughts.

A Deep Dive Into Trump’s Potential Strategy Going Forward

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I may not be all that great at “game theory,” but I’m pretty good at strategic thinking. I have been wracking my brains the last few days as to what Trump is thinking now that he’s lost the House. It is telling that he fired Sessions so quick after this happened. But what, exactly, does it mean?

Look at it from Trump’s point of view — he knows he’s done some very, very bad, un-Constitutional things, but he also knows that no matter what he’s not going to be convicted in the Senate. It’s just not going to happen. There’s no way 67 Senators are going to convict the president, no matter what he does.

This is why it’s so difficult to figure out Trump’s strategy at this point. He knows some basic things to be true. He has two month so do whatever he wants to, but at the same time once those two months are up things change dramatically. If he’s thinking long-term, he knows anything drastic he does simply increases the already high likelihood that he will be impeached sometime in the first quarter of 2019. It’s a real struggle for me to figure out what he does. It seems to one scenario is he might leverage the next two months by striking first. It’s a risky strategy in some ways, but in other ways he’s simply what comes naturally to him — strike back and strike back hard.

So an argument could be made that he would rather declare war first and then hunker down for an impeachment fight rather than wait until January when it’s almost inevitable that there will be investigations and he will, in turn, be impeached. A lot depends on Mueller. If Mueller throws down the gauntlet between now and January, we will enter a surreal moment in our nation’s history when we pretty much just sit around and wait for the new House to be sworn in.

That’s why is seems from a cold, hard white-knuckled political point of view, it makes a lot of sense for Trump to strike first by firing everyone he feels he needs to fire and pardon everyone he feels he needs to pardon — looking at you Don Jr. — and declare war on the House using every available political tool and resource at his disposal. Trump knows that he is, because of the 67 votes needed to convict him in the Senate, pretty much a dictator at this point. He’s a king. And he’s almost certain to be re-elected for various reasons including a riled up base, an exceptional economy and general Constitutional rot.

So, in that sense, I have a hunch that very, very, very soon Bob Mueller will be fired, half a dozen people will be pardoned and absolutely nothing happens in real terms for two months. Trump will have two months to pound away at the in coming House, he can frame any investigations in cold, hard political terms to his base and the country is completely torn apart for the few months it takes to investigate everything, impeach Trump, have it go to the Senate and then die there. Of course, given the states, Trump’s trial in the Senate is likely to be a modern day OJ trial for a lot of people.

On a personal note, I would like to call bullshit on anyone who waves off the need to impeach Trump. I feel it’s out of hands at this point. History has made its decision and it won’t take too much investigation on the part of the House for it to become apparent that Trump has to at least suffer the historic shame of impeachment, even if we all know he won’t be convicted. Remember, the absolute last argument of MAGA will be, “Yeah? Well convict him.”

In other words, we will all know the gory details of Trump’s obstruction of justice, his conspiracy with a foreign power to influence his election….and nothing will happen to him. He will be impeached, but not convicted and that, as they say, will be that. He will win re-election and there will be a lot — a lot — of stories about Trump is now “unbound” because we had one silver political bullet and we didn’t manage to strike the werewolf.

Or, put another way, what will have to learn about Trump will have to be simply staggering for us to get anywhere near convicting him in the Senate. I would also like to note that the moment MAGA people do the “Pence Pivot” whereby they talk about what a “man of God” Pence is and they really voted for Pence, not Trump in 2016 is the moment Trump’s goose is cooked. But what would have to happen for the Pence Pivot to happen would be so astonishing as to leave me astonished.

In short, Trump is likely going to get impeached, be acquitted in the Senate and cruse to a pleasant victory in 2020. That is without considering the possibility of a major terrorist attack or war with either Iran or the DPRK. So, Trump will start campaign in 2024 for his “legacy” and hopefully by that point The Resistance will have come up with the leadership necessary to deny him one.

Shelton Bumgarner is a writer and photographer living in Richmond, Va. He is working on his first novel. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com.

Herding Cats — I Call On The WHCA To Boycott The White House

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I grew up wanting to be a journalist, and as such a I have a lot of respect for Jim Acosta and the rest of the White House Correspondence Association. the fact that Trump would abuse his power based on a bald face lie and revoke Acosta’s “hard pass” press credentials to the White House is enough to make my blood boil.

As such, it seems as thought desperate times call for drastic measures and as such the WHCA should boycott the White House en masse. They won’t do it, of course, but they should. They should take a principled stand on Acosta’s behalf and raise some hell. Go Howard Beal on them, if need be. They have a lot of individual power and if they acted collectively, it would be historic and powerful.

But I have very low exceptions.

And, besides, no one listens to me anyway.

V-Log: The Case For Impeaching Trump In 2019

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

This is my response to people who think we “don’t have time” to impeach Trump in 2019.

V-Log: A Sunday Afternoon Closing Argument For The Resistance #2018Midterms

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Another pretty good one.

Insane Methods Trump May Use To Win The 2018 Midterms

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It is pretty obvious to me that Trump is such a streetfighter politically that he will do anything in his power to win the 2018 midterms. He fights dirty and given that he is, in fact, president, he has it within his power to do serious damage to The Resistance.

First and foremost, it appears as though Trump is, by re-instating Iranian sanctions, hoping to bait the Iranians into some sort of response between Monday and Tuesday during the election itself. He knows that a major terrorist or military attack on the part of the Iranians so close to — or on — Election Day would either whip up the base or give him the type of instant mass popularity taht he needs at this point to keep Congress. Then he laughs at us while the Republicans continue to rape the nation politically. It doesn’t matter that they gamed the system in their effort to win.

Meanwhile, if that doesn’t manage to do the trick, I believe Trump is going to blame “Chinese hackers” for any loss on the part of the Republicans and he will either call the whole thing a sham or go so far as to challenge it in court. With the Republicans 5-4 lock in SCOTUS, he has a decent shot of if not invalidating the election results, muddling things to such an extent that half the country will legitimately believe any impeachment of Trump on the part of the House is invalid and as such it will tear the country apart.

Lastly, the Russians continue to lurk in the darkness. There is a better than 50/50 chance there might be vote hacking on their part and Republicans will win and laugh at anyone who suggests they did not win fairly. All they care about is power and then we will enter a dystopia in which Republicans never lose because the Russians will keep hacking elections and because they benefit from the Russians actions, they refuse to do anything about it.

This goes on forever and, well, that is, as they say, that.

I guess the point of all of this is I just don’t see Republicans giving up power without either some sort of shenanigans or some sort of assistance from a foreign power. All I can say is vote. And if you believe in a god, pray.

Shelton Bumgarner is a writer and photographer living in Richmond, Va. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com.