Category: Trumplandia

‘Ping’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a child of the Cold War, so everything that’s going on in the Middle East right now reminds me of what was going on in the background of The Day After before everything went kabluey.

I’m well aware that I’m prone to “hysterical doom shit,” as this may just be more of the same. But it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine things escalating if Israel struck targets inside of Iran for their involvement in what has been going on.

And Israel is one of a few nuclear powers so, yeah. The whole thing is rather unnerving. I only even suggest any of this because this IS the Middle East we’re talking about and the whole region as been unstable for a long, long time.

What’s more, we have the whole fucking “Fourth Turning” to worry about in the United States at some point between now and early 2025. I still think the whole thing is astrology for dudes, but the point the theory makes is still relevant — it definitely seems as though 2025 Is It.

We’ve collectively, on a global scale, enjoyed peace for too long and a lot of idiots are itching to burn the whole post WW2 global order to the ground. I don’t know what to tell you, folks.

Get ready.

Is It World War 3 Yet?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I seriously doubt this particular “hysterical doom shit” on my part will amount to anything, I am a little bit concerned that if there are two major long-term regional wars going on at the same time that the two events will be linked under the rubric “World War 3.”

What’s more, if the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are joined by a massive clusterfuck in central Africa then, yeah, the nattering nabobs of negativism may start to throw around the term “World War 3” simply because it would be “cool” and an easy way to explain a very complex situation.

Of course, I have long believed that if the “Fourth Turning” really does happen starting in late 2024, early 2025 that we are going to be royally fucked and World War 3 really will break out. That could happen either because the United States pulls out of NATO and South Korea as it becomes an America First MAGA autocratic state or because the USA has descended into civil war or revolution because of “vibes.”

But that’s very speculative hysterical doom shit. It’s possible that somehow we’ll just punt all our problems down the road and nothing will come of any of this.

Should An ‘American’ By Any Other Name Smell As Sweet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In yet more proof that “everything is dumb,” I got into something of a prolonged argument on the Twitter clone Pebble with some non-USAians about what to call…,well, people like me.

As is so often the case, it all started when I made a casual remark about something and referred to “Americans” in a way that clearly linked the idea of people from the USA with the word. This made a Spanish-speaking non-American American very upset and I spent a few hours arguing over this fucking dumb issue.

For me, the issue is — fucking Americans, or USAians, save the globe during two world wars and a Cold War, we should be given a pass when it comes to what we call ourselves. But NOOOOOO. It definitely seems as though there are some non-Americans who fucking hate the United States so much that they get really upset when USAians call themselves “American.”

I have to say that jumping down my throat about something so stupid — especially when the USA is careening towards either a MAGA-themed autocracy or a civil war / revolution. And, yet, here we are.

I was countered by well-meaning people who wanted us all to hold hands and sing fucking Kumbaya until Americans collectively agreed to take the feelings of everyone outside of the United States into consideration when we referred to ourselves.

Fuck that. It’s never going to happen and anyone who think it will is a fucking moron. It’s a testament to how well-meaning Leftists blather on about something that doesn’t mean shit in real terms just because in some dream world they think they can change things.

What Americans call themselves just isn’t that big a deal, all things considered. Especially given how close the United States is to either MAGA Nazi fascist autocracy or civil war / revolution. UGH. I fucking hate Leftists, sometimes.

Eyes Wide Shut: America Is Careening Towards ‘The Fourth Turning’ & No One Gives A Shit

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is so curious that America’s lurch towards either MAGA-themed autocracy or civil war / revolution is happening in broad fucking daylight and no one seems very concerned. It’s all rather unsettling.

All I can compared it to is how apparently the Western Roman Empire just kind of gave up in its later years. An air of defeatism took over the collective and at one point it just become a matter of time before some barbarian put the Western Romans out of their misery.

I guess what I’m trying to say is there are some macro historical forces at work when it comes to the United States’ future. I can’t predict the future, so I have no idea what the fuck is going to happen. But, in general, I would posit that Something Big is going to happen in the world’s only hyperpower in late 2024, early 2025.

What that “Something Big” event might be….I just don’t know.

But, in general, all the conditions are there for a political event at least equal to WW2, if not the French Revolution. Something — whatever it is — that fundamentally changes not just American culture, but that of the entire world. It’s going to be scary and disruptive and there won’t be any ready endgame while it’s happening.

Good luck.

Pondering The Potential Impact of Google’s Coming Gemini AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the next 18 months may be pretty fucking historic on both a technological and political basis. On the tech side, Google is set to release a new AI called Gemini. Given how impressive today’s first generation AI is, I’m a bit unnerved by what Gemini may bring.

It definitely seems as though 2024 will be the year when AI reaches the “just good enough” stage. This means we’ll be one severe recession away from the entire knowledge economy being upended and transformed. It could be that the 2024 presidential cycle will be the first time we start to take the notion of Universal Basic Income seriously.

I’m coming to believe that UBI is inevitable — a lot sooner than anyone might think. But I also think it will come at a price — probably all taxes will be replaced by a 30% VAT. Also, I think we’ll pay for a UBI by taxing the economic output of non-human actors.

If Gemini is anywhere near as powerful as is suggested, then we are probably in for some severe economic and social upheaval just as we careen towards the “Fourth Turning” of late 2024, early 2025.

I continue to believe that it’s at least possible that neo-Ludditism is the next logical evolution of MAGA. It makes a lot of sense if even blue collar jobs are not spared by AI. I suspect that soon enough something akin to androids will begin to take all the service jobs that aren’t knowledge economy jobs being taken by LLMs.

Regardless, things are very much up the air.

Worried About A Blind Item

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only think about this again because the Speaker of the House spot is vacant for the time being. But there was a blind item on Tik-Tok some time ago that suggested there might be a sex tape of VP Harris getting it on with talk show host Montel.

That is all a bunch of smoke and mirrors at the moment, but I think it was Lenin who said a week sometimes has a the news of a decade crammed all into it all at once at times. So, imagine Biden shuffles off this mortal coil, Harris becomes POTUS and a sex tape leaks out and she has to resign.

Who would become POTUS at this point? Do we know? I guess it would be the president pro temp of the Senate, but I sure don’t like not knowing 100%.

Anyway, I’m sure I’m overthinking things and everything is going to work out just fine.

Right….Right????

Taking The Prospect Of ‘Speaker Trump’ Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that is both funny and dumb and dangerous all at the same time is the idea that Trump might become Speaker of the House now that Kevin McCarthy has been given the boot.

If Trump was a true “great man,” then, yes, it would make total sense. But Trump is such an idiot that he just doesn’t have the abstract thought abilities necessary to do such a thing. I MIGHT be able to see Trump find a handpicked proxy that he might use to do his bidding, but at the moment, I really struggle to imagine Trump himself being willing to be Speaker.

The only — ONLY — reason why I could maybe see him doing it is he would really get off on leading the impeachment of Biden. Otherwise, the man is so dumb and lazy that he just would not be willing to do any of the practical work necessary to be a Speaker of the House.

And, yet, Trump lacks any abstract thought abilities to the point that I really struggle to imagine him having the gumption to pick a proxy person to run the House for him. Trump is very, very, very dumb and lazy and, lulz, you would have to spell it out to him like he was a complete moron — which he is — to get him to find a proxy for him.

So, I think, for the time being, we’re pretty safe. I can’t predict the future, but I seriously doubt Trump will be the next Speaker of the House.

MAGA As American Nazism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The most recent Pod Save America is really great. But I do find it interesting that the PSA guys seem to have a blind spot when it comes to what’s going on with American politics. They keep wondering how it is that we find ourselves in this situation and how we can deal with Trump.

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Dalton, Ga., on Jan. 4, 2021.

The problem is not only is America now an anocracy rather than democracy, there is a sizable portion of the population who hates democracy and crave an autocratic white Christian ethnostate of blood and soil. There comes a point when you have to accept how existential the 2024 election is going to be for the fate of the United States.

If every election a democracy has is existential, then you’re really not a democracy anymore. We have to accept that a lot of white Christian conservative (males) feel disenfranchised to the point that they would rather we throw up our hands and give up on our founding principles.

I just don’t have any hope anymore. We have to prepare for some sort of monumental events to happen starting in late 2024, early 2025. I have no idea what might happen, but things aren’t looking great at the moment. In fact, they look rather dire.

There are no easy answers or solutions. I do believe that MAGA will one day be viewed as just as bad as the Nazis, with all the foreboding and evil that that assumes about what they will do the next time they have power.

MAGA Is Going Septic — We Have To Plan Accordingly

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 will be It. Something Big is going to happen one way or another. Either we slip into MAGA-themed autocracy or have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) I just don’t see us punting our problems down the road again.

MAGA wants to establish an autocratic white Christian ethnostate of blood and soil. And, remember, that is the orthodoxy of the Republican Party, not just Trump. So the next time we have a Republican president, that’s what we’re going to transform into — unless we have some sort of “Resistance Revolution” that forces some significant political reforms.

I can’t predict that future, so I suppose it’s possible that we might punt things down the road again. And I suppose it’s possible that rather than growing more hateful and angry if that happens — or starting a civil war — that MAGA might gradually lose political power.

But I have my doubts.

The key issue is how much the insane rhetoric on the part of MAGA is just that — a bunch of talk. Are they really willing to destroy the United States to keep Trump out of prison? That is kind of the issue of the moment — or at least of late 2024, early 2025.

Again — I can’t predict the future. No fate but what we make and all that. But I do know that 2024 will be the most significant event in domestic political history since that of 1860.

What’s Wrong With Conservative White America?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There used to be a point in time, not so long ago, when generally everyone in America — regardless of political affiliation — was on the same page about some pretty basic things. First and foremost, we all not only believed in democracy, we believed the United States was a democracy.

And, yet, here we are.

A solid 38% of the Republican electorate no longer believes in democracy and definitely no longer believes the United States is a democracy. It really makes who wonder how the fuck this happened. Ezra Klein has a great book about this very thing — “Why We’re Polarized’ — that explains how we got here, but gives the audience zero ways to solve the problem.

Basically, one big problem is as white people slowly become a minority, our power structures simply aren’t able to accommodate the change in race relations. So, in a sense, there is a really good chance that something analogous to the bad old days in South Africa may happen in the United States where a white minority controls the economy and the politics of the country.

So, in short, the case could be made that MAGA is pretty much just white identity politics. Now that white (conservative) people realize they aren’t going to be able to get their way by sheer force of numbers, they are freaking out on a number of different fronts from abortion to gun control. And it’s only going to get worse.

As I keep saying, either we turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we collapse into civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues.)

For the time being, I neither see any sort of solution nor know which direction we’re going to take. I keep hoping I’m wrong and we’re going to go a “third way” like we did in 2020. But I just don’t know. Everything is so uncertain and unstable in the United States at the moment that I just can’t game out what’s going to happen.

I have a lot of fears about the absolute worst happening, and, yet, it could be that, like in 2020, those fears are just that — “hysterical doom shit.” It could be that, lulz, neither Trump wins nor is he able to provoke a National Divorce if he loses.

Who knows.