A Great Reset


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s my personal conviction that if Russia attacks Ukraine in a big, historic manner this winter that it will mark the end of the post-World War 2 liberal order. The one that millions died for between the years 1937 and 1945. I say this because it would be the first time since 1945 when there was a war this big in somewhere as important as Europe.

There have been a number of invasions — most of them by the Soviets — during the Cold War — but they would be relatively limited compared to the damage that a war between Russia and Ukraine would cause. There would be refugees in the 100,000s and causalities in the 10,000s. It’s possible that Russia might set off a series of events within Ukraine that go far beyond anything they believe possible.

It’s within the realm of possibility that Ukraine might simply collapse into mass chaos. Far Right nationalists could spring up, powered by pure, white hot irredentism. What’s more, the United States is so mind-bogglingly divided at the moment that no matter what happened between Russia and Ukraine, once the war started China could very well be emboldened enough to attack Taiwan in the next few years (months?)

The most disturbing element of all of this is how, because of long term macro trends, the United States ship of state is sinking and sinking fast. Something big is going to happen to the United States between now and, say, January 2025 and there’s nothing we can do to stop it. Everything is in place and nothing is going to fix the systemic issues that will cause the United States to either slide into autocracy or have a massive, tragic civil war.

A Russo-Ukrainian War would just be the beginning of an epic, historic era of instability not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939. With the United States careening towards a dark, unstable future and the Russians having eaten a huge chunk of Ukraine, it could be open season across the globe in ways we’ve not seen in generations.

Take, for instance, the DPRK. The last few days have seen some ominous statements come out of Pyongyang. What happens if, in the middle of a Russo-Ukrainian War, the DPRK begins to saber rattle by shooting off ICBMs and testing H-bombs? That would only add to the global sense of chaos and instability.

And, remember, if two major regional wars were happening at the same time — Russia / Ukraine and China / Taiwan — it would be very hard for the American press to resist the temptation to brand it all World War 3. What’s more, as I mentioned, the United States is careening towards either autocracy or civil war no later than January 2025.

So. Enjoy these twilight days of stability. Things could get pretty lit pretty quick. Maybe within a few days.

Putin’s Miscalculation?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no expert on this issue and you should probably ignore me with extreme prejudice, but here’s my hot take on what Putin’s war aims in Ukraine might be. First, we still don’t know that there’s going to be a war. All the signs point to a war — a major one — but it’s still possible that in the end all these troop movements are just one big flex.

Things have gotten so bad, of course, that if Putin did pull back he would look weak and intimidated by the West. But Putin works in mysterious ways, so that’s an option that’s still open.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s say Putin pulls the trigger instead of pulling back and we find ourselves with the biggest land war in Europe since 1945. Then what? Well, it seems as though Putin believes he can get what he wants through a combination of war and politics. He swoops in from the north, takes Kiev in conjunction with a massive offensives coming out of Crimea and Donbass and that will be that. At the end of the process, either he simply annexes eastern Ukraine or he’s able to force some sort of political re-organization of Ukraine so it’s under his jackboot from here on out.

I’ve learned two things I did not know recently. One is, the issue of mud in eastern Ukraine isn’t as big a deal as I thought was — there are plenty of roads for the Russians to ride their tanks on. And, second, eastern Ukraine geographically isn’t exactly the greatest place to stage a long-term insurrection.

So, apparently, if Putin can simply overwhelm the Ukrainians with enough arms, one can see why he might think he could get away with a major invasion of eastern Ukraine. And, yet, I don’t know about that. It seems to me the Ukrainians have enough sense of national identity now that Putin is making a major miscalculation.

The western, more European-oriented portion of Ukraine simply will not allow Russia to do what it wants to do. At least not without a fight. Every scenario you can think up about a major invasion of Ukraine by Russia ends with the same endgame — a resource draining war with the rump Ukrainian state that ultimately is the downfall not just of Putin, but the modern Russian state. The Russian economy is just too small — about the size of Italy’s — and the Ukrainians too determined for there to be any other outcome.

I’m not saying everything would happen in a straight line. There would be ups and downs and zigs and zags to this endgame, but on a long-term, macro level, that’s where all roads lead to.

But, like I said, I’m not an expert. In fact, I pretty much always get things wrong. So, buyer beware.

My Hot Take On The #Russian – #Ukraine Crisis For January 22, 2022


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m definitely not an expert, but here’s my novice hot take on what’s going on at the moment between Russia and Ukraine. If all of this is just a big flex on the part of Putin in hopes of getting “respect” from the West, then he sure is expending a huge amount of money to do so. Or, put another way, there comes a point when you just can’t have a massive portion of your military forward deployed, then pull back, without looking like a fool. The world community thinks you’re going to do something, so you might feel obliged to live up to their expectations.

It doesn’t make any sense to me that Putin would go through all this trouble just to turn around and say, “psych!” He’s up to something, something big. And the questions now are when and how big? Given what I understand about the issue of mud around Ukraine impleading any Russian advance, it seems as though sometime in February would be ideal.

At the moment, the sweet spot for any invasion is probably after the Winter Olympics, which end on February 20th. And, yet, I dunno. It seems as thought that might not be a consideration for Putin at this point. My current personal guess is any war between Russia and Ukraine might starts around February 15 or so.

I say that because a huge number of Russian forces are flooding into Belarus at the moment for “joint training exercises” that are supposed to take place between now and around the middle of February.

And, yet, there’s a big thing to consider — to date, I’ve been wrong all the time about what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine, so why would this be any different. So, it’s very possible that this really is just a big, foolish flex on Putin’s part and the spring mud will come and…nothing will have happened.

But I am keeping an eye on all of this. At the moment, the momentum is towards a major war between Russia and Ukraine. If that happens, it could collapse the entirety of the post-WW2 global liberal order to the point that we’ll see instability the likes of which we’ve not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939.

And to this how the United States is careening towards a “Fourth Turning” around 2025 and we could very well have something akin to a “Great Reset” with a Second American Civil War happening in conjunction with WW3.

Two Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Scenarios


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been brooding on what the political and strategic endgame of a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War might be. Here are two possible scenarios I’ve managed to come up with. Putin’s war aim this first scenario is simply a partial — but large –conquest of Ukraine using a hybrid of military and political force.

Putin’s primary objective would be to seize Kiev and overthrow the government there. He would use a pincer movement using forces he’s assembled in Belarus. At the same time, there would be a series of major attacks into Ukraine from the east and south. Once Russia took the Ukrainian capital, there would be a brief reassessment of how the war was going.

If the Ukrainian government sued for peace at this point, then the war grinds to a halt and everything is settled at the negotiating table. Ukraine gives up everything east of the Dnieper River and the general area of Novorossiya. Signing such a deal would, of course, cause the Ukrainian government to promptly collapse. But the Russians would begin to consolidate power in their newly acquired territory by drawing upon the large Russianized population in that part of Ukraine.

Then, some sort of fascist-like government would likely be formed in the rump state of Ukraine and we spend the next 10 years talking about the brave partisans deep behind enemy lines.

The other scenario would go like this — the Ukrainian government in Kiev has time to bug out, probably to somewhere in the far west of the country like Lviv. This would prompt the Russians to go well beyond the Dnieper River, heading towards Lviv itself for a final battle. This would be extremely risky on Putin’s part, but he might lulz it. In this scenario, he would totally re-organize the entirety of Ukraine to form some sort of Russian Union with the now-conquered Belarus.

But, this, too, would be a pretty crazy scenario for Russia. Even drawing upon a lot of sympathetic, Russified Ukrainians in the eastern portion of the country would not stop millions of Ukrainians — especially west of the Dnieper River to take up arms against the Russian jackboot. Throw in how much training and military material the West would be giving the Ukrainian Resistance and Putin is really, really playing with fire.

The last time the Russians invaded a nation that didn’t want it — Afghanistan — they lost everything. There’s no reason to believe the same would not be true with Ukraine.

My Current Guess is There May Be A Russo-Ukrainian War Between Now & Mid-February


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I have repeatedly been wrong with predicting anything to do with Ukraine or Russia. But here I am, trying again to predict the unpredictable. At the moment, it seems as though mid-February would be the sweetspot for some sort of an attack.

It would give the Russians time to get everything in order for the invasion and would be before the spring thaw. But, like I said, I get everything wrong, so who knows when it will happen.

It may never happen at all.

Another Interesting Map Depicting A Russo-Ukrainian Winter War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I found this on Twitter and it pairs up with the other maps I’ve seen that depict what the Russians might do if they invaded Ukraine. What’s so wild is all of this is happening with our eyes wide open. We know the Russians are planning something and yet there’s little, if anything the West can do to stop it. I think this is from a guy name Tom Rogan.

Lingering Questions About A Potential 2022 Russo-Ukrainian Winter War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are the questions I have right now about any potential Russo-Ukrainian Winter War.

  1. Why now?
    This is a real mystery. I guess the case could be made that Putin isn’t getting any younger and he wants to seize the crown jewel of a new Russian Empire while he’s still alive, damn the long-term consequences. It helps that he’s not really getting any push back from the West. It could be that Putin has finally lost his fucking mind and he just doesn’t care anymore. It helps that Trump isn’t president anymore because if Putin invaded Ukraine with Trump president in the United States, then the jig would be up about Trump being in Putin’s pocket.
  2. When exactly will the invasion happen?
    This is a real tricky one. I just don’t know. From what I can glean from Twitter, the real warning sign we have to keep an eye on is when the troops to man all the equipment Putin is putting in place arrive. When those troops arrive, then we’ll know we’re going to the show. Then it will be go time.
  3. What happens in the 48 hour warning zone?
    There is going to be a window between when Putin decides to invade and when the invasion begins. That is, I think, just the nature of modern warfare. It makes me wonder what will happen in those 48 hours. What will be the reaction of the West? Is there anything they can do? Or do we just watch in horror as Russia prepares to smash across the Ukrainian border?
  4. What will be the implications of Russians avoiding cities?
    This would probably be a dumb question if I knew anything about military tactics, but it seems as though if the Russians simply avoid cities — other than, say, Kiev, that they’re setting themselves up for a major clusterfuck. Just because the Russians would control the general political area known as “Ukraine,” if the cities aren’t controlled, then they would be a serious source of organize opposition to any Russian occupation. I could the Russians being sucked into a Ukrainian civil war no matter how successful they might otherwise be on the ground.
  5. How does Russia plan to keep the territory it grabs?
    Any political victory on the part of the Russians in Ukraine — by the government in Kiev suing for peace — would be just the beginning. The West is already sending material to Ukraine and that will only increase once there’s an actual invasion. So, we would be looking at a situation very similar to Afghanistan in the 1980s, only in modern Europe and a far bigger population. No matter how successful the Russians were in the first part of a Russo-Ukrainian War, they are going to get bogged down.
  6. How much territory does Russia plan to take?
    I think this one will be determined by how well the Ukrainians are at fending off the first wave of the invasion. It definitely looks like the Russians are going to come at Kiev from the north in an effort to get the Ukrainians to sue for peace. But even if that was successful, all that is likely to do is cause the Ukrainian government to collapse and a bunch of nationalists will take over who are absolutely determined to drive the Russians out. Things would only get worse for the Russians if they decide to take the entirety of Ukraine. Talk about a clusterfuck! Them going into the more Westernized parts of Ukraine would be a disaster in the making. And Russia bumping up against the border of NATO states would freak the entirety of Western Europe out, no matter how much the Germans want to stick their heads in the sand.
  7. What will be the response in the United States?
    I stand by my belief that if there is a general war between Russia and Ukraine that it will be a nearly 9/11 level event within American domestic politics. The reason why I say this is — those first few days worth of horrific war scenes flooding social media will be enough to scare the shit out of liberal women in the exurbs of Philadelphia who always seem to decide American presidential elections. And, there is a limited amount of oxygen in the American media universe. A media circuit breaker will likely be flipped and for a few days — weeks? — all we’re going to talk about is Ukraine. To the point that the January 6th Committee’s investigation may simply drift out into sea, never to be seen from again. This does, however, bring up the question of how the Republicans will deal with a major war between Russia and Ukraine. The base will follow Trump’s lead in sucking up to Putin, while the Republican Establishment will be hysterical and blame Biden for not being strong enough…in defending democracy, something Republicans clearly don’t believe in anymore.
  8. Could Trump self-immolate politically if runs around yapping about how Ukraine isn’t even a real country?
    Trump, by definition, is going to embarrass myself when it comes to Ukraine if there’s a war there. He’s going to scream at the top of his longs that Ukraine “isn’t even a real country” to the point that either Republicans tow his line en mass or there’s something akin to a civil war within Republican ranks on the issue of how to address the huge war waging near the heart of Europe. Trump has such absolute control over the Republican Party that I doubt there will be much of a fight. In the end, we will see a surreal flip of political views, with Democrats taking a hard line against Russia and Republicans lulzing it all.

It Definitely Seems Like Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no expert — I keep getting things wrong about this situation — but from what I can tell from Twitter, it definitely seems like Russia is on the cusp of a major war against Ukraine.

The issue now is, of course, when will it start?

I honestly have no idea. But my current guess is anytime between now and mid-February. We may have about 48 hours notice before go time. But at the moment, Russia is throwing everything it’s got into this particular endeavor. It’s just a matter of when Putin decides to give the go ahead.

One thing I do find interesting is how the Russians plan to avoid cities as part of the invasion. Anyway. I guess we’ll see.

The Possible Russo-Ukrainian Winter War of 2022: I Found This Interesting


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are the three possible invasion paths that the Russians might take should they start a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. There is something of a time limit — if the Russians don’t make a decision one way or another pretty soon, the spring thaw is going to kick in and they will be faced with a lot of mud and not much territory taken.

Wait, Russia May Do WHAT With Its Tactical Nukes?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, that escalated quickly. The latest is that Russia has suggested that it may position some of its tactical nukes on the border with Ukraine. That’s just bonkers. Even suggesting shit like that is very, very dangerous.

But I do love a good scenario, so let’s run that nightmare. If Russia were to use tactical nukes as part of the opening stages of a “shock and awe” campaign against Ukraine then wow we wow wow. That would break the 70 year old taboo against using nukes in a big way and suddenly every nation in the world would begin to recalibrate their geopolitical views on the use of WMD.

It would be a horrific nightmare for more than one reason. But, I guess the use of tactical nukes against Ukraine in the opening stages of a general war would be one way to take over the entire country pretty quickly. But, let me note AGAIN, that Ukraine has a long, long history of people going after Russians on a personal level.

So, even if Russia nuked Ukraine because Putin finally lost his fucking mind, that would not stop Russia from ultimately being destroyed by doing so. The same dynamic as Afghanistan would exist. Even if Ukraine was zapped into rubble in the opening stages of a general war, millions of Ukrainians would take up arms and make life absolute hell for Russian troops in their country.

It would be only a matter of time before Russians lost not just Ukraine, but Russia itself through some sort of civil war or revolution.

I continue to not know what the the fuck Putin is up to at the moment. All this moving of troops to the Ukrainian border just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.