Everything Is So Dumb


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have yet to determine the Right’s logic for wanting a Second American Civil War. It just makes no sense. They don’t have any war aims. They have no agenda. They just want to kill liberals for some reason.

At least with the FIRST American Civil War, there was not only an ideology (slave power) but an agenda — leaving the Union and setting up the CSA. But if you were to ask Roger Stone what, exactly, he wanted by Trump taking “total control” of the country — and thus risking some sort of civil war — I don’t think he could honestly tell you.

What makes all of this even more surreal is, in all honesty, Roger Stone et al are getting everything, EVERYTHING, they want via a combination of favorable demographic-economics and the rather ineffectual nature of the non-MAGA portion of the American political system. Why shart murdering people in cold blood when the reason you might do so can be achieved without bloodshed by simply waiting.

The point is, as I keep ranting about, once politics finally stops being seen as any form of a solution to the nation’s problems, then the Blue States are in a far better position than MAGA-Qanon might think. MAGA-Qanon (apparently?) thinks they strike some sort of knock-out blow early on in any type of actual civil war and lulz, fuck you liberal.

While the prospect of doing this might make Roger Stone spooge his pants, in fact this is not based in reality. California has a huge population and a huge economy. If they absolutely had to, they could probably call up 500,000 men (and women) and blitzkrieg across the States of Nevada, Utah, Wyoming and Iowa on their way to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Those last three Blue States could probably call up a significant number of men (and women) as well and meet a New Model Army from the Bear State Republic somewhere in the middle.

Of course, none of this would be happening in a vacuum — I have no idea what the U.S. Military would be doing in all of this. But if there was some sort of civil war, it could turn into a revolution pretty quick if even the U.S. Military buckled because the brass supported Biden and the enlisted supported Trump.

But I am really pulling that out of my butt. There are simply too many different conditions and factors I can’t even begin to interpret. I just think maybe all the Blue Check Liberal hand wringing about political violence is not thinking big enough. It’s very possible that it won’t be lone MAGA-Qanon people blowing shit up, but organize state forces that absolutely are forced to do something about the implosion of the country.

Anyway.

Subscribe to my Soundcloud. (Wink)

It’s all very puzzling.

Comparative Political History: Trump & The Rise of Hitler


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any mention of Hitler is loaded. And, yet, why is that? The answer, of course, is how many people directly died because of him. But there was a time, in the early days of his rule, when he was seen as very much a Trumpian figure. It was only after the deaths began to mount that he attained his modern status as the human personification of evil.

While I’m sure there are a dozen historians quietly working on their Hitler-Trump dual biographies right now, the comparisons between Hitler and Trump are now growing alarmingly similar. But before we go any further, we have to remember that Trump, at least for the moment, is nothing more than criminally incompetent autocrat. It could be that for a variety of reasons, he’ll linger in the Germany 1933-1934 era and that will be that. Or put another way, he may simply hope to be something akin to Russia’s Putin, but not attain the more direct, vicious and malvalent control that Hitler got.

But the profound thing the rise of Trump potentially gives us is direct insight into the rise of Hitler. Now that we can safely make a direct comparison between Hitler and Trump (at least relative to Hitler’s rise to power and his early years), we’re close to understanding how, exactly, Hitler came to be. It definitely seems as though — if we take Trump a guide — that someone like Hitler was going to rise to power. Both men are extremely lazy and they don’t really do anything other than establish a “permission structure” for evil to grow and flourish. So, in a sense, we might get the age old question of was “a Hitler” inevitable, or was he just a particular quirk of history because of his special skillset.

Seems to me it’s the former. Hitler was inevitable because of macro historical trends, and, yet, he was something of a one-shot. He filled a historical and political need, but someone else wasn’t going to do exactly the same thing if something happened to him early enough in his rule. So, in a sense, had Hitler died at just the right moment, it’s possible that WW2 might not have happened. Germany would probably been something a lot more like Franco’s Spain given the available replacements to Hitler in the existing Nazi power structure.

And, really, the issue at this point is does Trump, after he steals the 2020 election, see it as his 1933 election and pass some sort of enabling acts as quickly as possible after his own Reichstag Fire. I’m thinking yes — probably in the form of a major domestic terrorism event. He’ll demand a Constitutional Convention and that will be that.

Yet, again, would Trump at that point go the Putin route, or would he lurch towards something a more Nazi? This is such a complicated question for a number of reasons. One is, why? He has made no secret of his obsession with and fidelity to Putin. That type of control — not Nazi ideological control — definitely seems is personal agenda for the United States as this point.

So, to that extent, one would be on safe ground to call me hysterical for claiming Trump is an American Hitler.

And, yet.

There are a few things that give one pause for thought. It’s possible that Trumplandia will, in itself, be a thing that historians compare other events to in the future. If Trump did go the Nazi route, the more direct political movement MAGA would go the direction of is the Khmer Rouge. Instead of trying to take over the world like Hitler and the Nazis, Trump and MAGA would implode the United States.

Everything exists — right now — for Trump to begin rounding up “liberals” and begin putting them in the already-existing ICE camp infrastructure. The American center-Left (read: everyone not MAGA) is so weak, so ineffectual, that Trump again the “total control” that Roger Stone suggests he make a grab for.

The reason I say this is how else was all of this going to end? The absolute fidelity of the MAGA-Qanon base and the complete complicity of the entire Republican Party as a result give Trump such power that he may — simply because he’s a moron — stumble into a Pol Pot type situation without even really meaning to. It’s not like Trump has any ideology at all other than how own personal aggrandizement and increase of wealth. It just so happens that the venn diagram of what he wants on a personal level and what his base wants is identical and, as such, he really doesn’t have to do anything but just be himself.

Do I really think Trump is going to ultimately be seen not as an American Hitler but as more an American Pol Pot? I honestly don’t know. He definitely has that option before him. I think he just wants to be an American Putin. And, yet, Putin doesn’t have Red Hats at his beck and call. Putin has a lot of power, yes, but he also has a lot of self-control. He uses the levers of state to do his bidding. While it’s extremely easy to see MAGA Red Hats turning into American Brown Shirts then American Khmer Rouge. What I mean by that is, it’s easy to imagine MAGA-Qanon Red Hats radicalizing once Trump consolidates power after stealing the 2020 election. Trump tells the authorities to stand down and he just sit back and watches the Red Hats do his bidding. It would give him plausible deniability. The whole thing might get out of his control, but he’s so devoid of empathy I doubt he would really care all that much.

At this point, let’s do a direct comparison of Trump and Hitler. First, both Hitler and Trump are very, very lazy. On a personal level, both men don’t drink. (Or at least say they don’t.) Hitler only got married late in life, while Trump has been married three times. Hitler had a very specific ideology, while Trump is completely devoid of an ideology. Hitler was reasonably sane, while Trump’s mental acuity definitely seems to be wanining.

I could very much see a situation where Trump’s downfall ultimately comes from himself. He grows so extreme — or allows the MAGA-Qanon Red Hats to grow so extreme — that a lot of center-Right-but-not-MAGA people (the bedrock of America) freak out. They get radicalized enough to bring House Trump down. Of course, this would suck massively on a macro political history scale.

The majority of Americans, by nature, are extremely docile and politically apathetic. So, Trump could very well found House Trump and let the country drift, over the next 20 years or so, towards being — at least on a political level — an American interpretation of Putin’s Russia. This seems a very real possibility.

And, in the near term, the issue is how difficult is it for Trump to steal the 2020 election? The more difficult it is, the more likely what his family might attain gradually over 20 years, he — and Barr — will try to grab over about three months. This would be so shocking to the average American that instead of consolidating power peacefully, the United States would implode into civil war, revolution or something akin to both at the same time.

This sounds crazy, but, then major historical events when you live through them are nothing more than a shocking series of random events to the average person. It’s not until long after the fact that historians, in an attempt to explain what happened to successor generations given those events value and an a narrative so as to make them easier to explain and understand.

But I continue to believe because of the Durham Investigation, the false promise of a COVID19 vaccine and Trump’s likely quid pro quo with the Russians (he removes 1/3 of our troops from Germany, they hack directly into our election systems), that all of this is going to be a dud. We’ll know election night that Trump has “won.” We’ll continue to drift into a more Putin’s Russian and less Hitler’s Germany and that will be that.

I absolutely believe that.

I guess I’m just a little nervous that Trump is such a fucking self-own artist that even with that easy-“win” he will somehow manage to fuck us all over because the MAGA-Qanon Red Hats see his victory as a green light to establish a white ethno-state NOW and not gradually over the next generation.

That’s when it’s at least possible that the American Ancien Regime will be washed away and a New Order will be established. What that looks like is anyone’s guess. It could be a Second American Republic or it could be Gileade. Which one it is, we decide.

So What’s Going To Be Our Modern ‘Harpers Ferry?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


On the occasion corresponding to this four years ago, all thoughts were anxiously directed to an impending civil-war. All dreaded it — all sought to avert it. While the inaugural address was being delivered from this place, devoted altogether to saving the Union without war, insurgent agents were in the city seeking to destroy it without war — seeking to dissole the Union, and divide effects, by negotiation. Both parties deprecated war; but one of them would make war rather than let the nation survive; and the other would accept war rather than let it perish. And the war came.Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address.


I’m reading a lot about the Civil War now (for obvious reasons.) The thing that is clear to me is while it may seem as though a second civil war is inevitable now, it’s also very possible that it’s all going to be a big dud.

Trump, with Barr’s help, will consolidate power after he steals the 2020 election and we’ll just slip into autocracy with our eyes wide open. It’s possible that the center-Left in the United States is simply too weak, divided and concerned with identity politics to actually unite and do the hard work in the real fucking world to do something about Trump.

That’s a very real possibility.

And, yet. It’s also possible an actual civil war or even revolution may take place in the United States very, very soon. As such, it will probably open with a 9/11-level domestic terrorism event. John Brown’s raid on Harpers Ferry was the first real-world indication that the shit was about to hit the fan, that the country was, in fact, coming apart. Any modern equivalent of this would set off a cascading series of events which would buckle the United States into warring Blue and Red camps. Fox News would be raided by angry New Yorkers and MSNBC / CNN would be kicked off the cable in Red States. A multitude of people would feel unsafe because of their political views and there would be a massive migration that would consolidate the politics of Blue and Red States.

But what would be the actual event that caused all of that?

I’m thinking right now that if things go that bad, it would be a series of coordinated assassinations across the country on the part of MAGA-Qanon fucktards. They would think that by doing so they could “help” Trump consolidate power, but all it would do would enrage Blue State citizens off enough that they would begin to plot a significant reaction of their own. Another possibility is some crazy Qanon Representative might gun down a lot of Democrats in the House at some point when it became clear that we were in for dueling presidents.

All of this would be far more chaotic than my description might make you think. But I do think that we all need to have some sort of “bugout protocol” in place in case the long-feared Second American Civil War actually happens.

A Second American Covant: As Goes California, So Goes The Nation


Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Everything is so dumb.

That I even have to say that all things considered it makes a lot more sense for California to stay and fight than try to leave the Union is so, so, very stupid. I say this because our historical amnesia hit the point where everyone has forgotten that about 700,000 Americans died the last time states tried to leave the Union?

Don’t answer that.

Anyway, let me at least make the case for California staying in the Union instead of attempting to leave when Trump inevitably rather abruptly and brazenly steals the 2020 election.

The key issue is what California is — a massive state with a massive economy and a largely homogeneous polity. In other words, the very things that Calexit people point to as a reason for it to “leave” the Union, I point to as a reason why it has to stay and fight.

I just don’t see the liberal fever dream of a Blue State Republic happening. More likely than not, California would have to take the lead on responding to some sort of tyrannical power grab by Trump and work together with other major Blue States to renew the Union’s covevant.

As I’ve said before, if you look at the realpolitik of the geography of the United States, the Blue State play book writes itself. You use California as your dreadnaught. You blitzkrieg across the Great Plains from California and meet up with your Blue State brethren in the Midwest.

Then you bribe African Americans in the South with the promise of reprations for slavery and, ta-da, you break the back of MAGA-Qanon and re-unite the country. You have go through a Radical Reconstruction phase that would address systemic racism and misogyny and you cruise into something of a second Gilded Age that bursts forth from the foundation of a Second American Covenant.

All of that is very dumb, in a sense, because I have no idea if that plan would work. But it is something to believe in rather than simply California leaving the Union and expected to get away with it without suffering a great deal.

And, really, wouldn’t California want to remake the United States in its image rather than go through extended “Troubles” that would likely involve IT going through something akin to a Reconstruction? There is strength in numbers, after all.

A Heads Up To Hollywood — You Never Can Tell…..


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I’m working on the assumption that Trump is going to “win” the 2020 Election. The novel I’m working on right now is set in the “before times,” before the pandemic, but it’s meant to be (in a sense) an allegorical thriller about the Trump Era.

As such, while I’m sure plenty, PLENTY of other people are doing exactly the same type of thing I’m doing — there’s a decent chance that when I try to query my novel(s) I’m going to hit the zeitgeist just right because a lot of liberal (readers) are going to be fucking FURIOUS that Trump is consolidating power and turning us into nothing more than an American interpretation of Putin’s Russia.

Yeah, I’m being cocky. And maybe rather delusional.

But given the absolute certainty that Trump is going to lie, cheat and steal to win the 2020 Election, when I finally wrap up this novel early 2021, it’s at least possible it might strike the zeitgeist in just the right way to be a huge success.

Or not.

We may just have a civil war and so, lulz.

What If Trump Held An Autocracy And Nobody Came?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though what is going to happen in the next year is something like this — Trump is going to “win.” Liberals will run around screaming we’re now Nazi Germany.

And, to a certain extent, we will be.

But a key issue is, for the average person, nothing will change. So, while we will definitely be Germany 1933-1934 when it comes to our political system, things will remain the same enough that, lulz, nothing matters.

And there in lies the rub.

While Trump is extremely stupid and politically greedy, it is, at least possible that he will hold back. He won’t overreach and some specific pressure points — like late night TV and SNL — won’t be touched. While Trump through Barr will rapidly consolidate power otherwise, in real terms, the average center-Right person won’t really notice any difference in their every day life.

And, really, even if Roe V. Wade and the ACA are killed, even that probably won’t make much of a difference. That being the case, if nothing else, indicates that Trump and MAGA-Qanon would be EXTREMELY STUPID to go for “total power” as Roger Stone would suggest.

If your opposition is so completely ineffectual in the real world that you can get everything you want and more, why push things by going full Hilter or Pol Pot? Why not just continue to consolidate power and give liberals the political valve of comedy? Why not let them laugh it up — when it comes to things that are actually important to House Trump — power and cold, hard cash — what difference does a somewhat biting SNL cold open mean to them?

One thing about Trump is he’s such a moron and a massive self-own artist that he could very well do the one thing that might push us into an actual civil war or revolution — begin to fuck with the everyday freedoms that the average person who is not on Twitter takes for granted.

I can’t predict the future, I have no idea what is going to happen, but Trump is so, so very stupid that he might do that very thing because he feels cocky and really wants to put a hurting on Alec Baldwin.

2020 Will Be A Replay Of 2016


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve seen enough, as they say — Trump is going to win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote (rather significantly.) America’s liberal democracy will finally die. But why do I think this?

The Durham Investigation
Barr’s “preliminary summary” of this investigation will play the role of the Second Comey Letter. Not only is the whole thing bullshit, but the summary will be bullshit too. A lot depends on how stupid and or greedy Trump and Barr get. If they’re smart, they’ll simply insinuate in general terms that Obama and Biden are criminals who will be prosecuted after the election. If they get greedy, they might really pull shit out of their asses in a way that is so brazenly false as to make people mad. But I think if they are pretty vague and open ended in all of this, that they get what they want — a replay of 2016.

The Russians Hacking Directly Into Our Election Systems
Just like with the polls in 2016, mysterious, the polls will be wrong in crucial states. Just enough to push Trump over the top in the Electoral College. We’ll all blame the Durham Investigation or the power of the “boat voters.” But soon enough, we’ll have to accept the results. The fact that the Russians fucked with our elections as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany will be like Who Really Shot JFK. After House Trump Republicans keep winning and winning and winning and winning the presidency, people might get woke. But by that point it will be way, way, WAY too late. Could be 40 years.

Trump Fucking With The Postal Service
This is more cover for the Russians. It gives Nate Silver a non-bonkers explanation for why the polls were wrong again.

News of a “Vaccine”
At some point in late October or very early November, the news will be full of breathless reports about a vaccine being approved. Boomers will have a “permission structure” to vote for MAGA-Qanon Trump again. In reality, all of it is bullshit and just more cover for the Russians to get away with the Crime of Century.

Trump Is An Autocrat
Orange Man is simply going to throw as much money and abuse of power at this particular situation so he “wins,” no matter what. All the momentum and logic is on his side because of that. He will “win” but only because he’s an autocrat. I just don’t see Americans having it in them to do anything about it.

But….

Ok, now that I have that out of the way, let’s talk about what could go wrong for Trump. Well, at this point, the only thing I think that might go wrong for Trump is, well, Trump. He has Barr, yes, but Trump is such a fucking massive self-own artist that there might come a point that even Barr struggles to control the situation post-election.

The thing that would have to happen — Biden winning by an absolutely massive landslide simply isn’t going to happen. And even if it did, Trump would go nuts and tell his supporters he “really won.” The thing about all the “things go wrong for Trump” scenarios is they all point to one thing: unprecedented political violence in the United States.

Everything from Trump taking “total control” (through Barr) at one end of the spectrum to an actual massive fighting civil war involving WMD on the other end of it.

Nothing I see indicates that people are willing to do what is necessary to defeat Trump in the real world. So, Trump wins. And, yet, we have to go back to the surreal, craven and bloodthirsty rhetoric swirling around the Righwing echo chamber. It’s possible that they would be so stupid that they were the one to start some sort of civil war and, as such, they take away one crucial piece of the political equation that has helped them and will continued to help them — apathy.

If MAGA-Qanon go nuts and start blowing shit up and murdering people in cold blood, a lot of center-Right people who enjoy Trump’s policies (tax cuts) but aren’t exactly thrilled with him as a person might get woke in a surprising fashion. But that’s extremely iffy.

What I’m really saying is if Trump and Barr are too heavy handed in their craven quest to turn the United States into an autocratic managed democracy, there might — just might — be a reaction with a cascading sequence of events they can’t control. Remember — it is possible that on a political level we could be an autocratic managed democracy but for the average American nothing would really change. Or if it did chance, it would continue to change like it has over the last four years — in fits and starts while Trump distracts us by being a racist, bigoted, misogynistic moron.

Or, let me put it another way — as long as the United State’s gently drift towards a Russian style autocratic managed democracy without things getting out of control and we go full Nazi, then House Trump is fine. The more I think about it, the more I realize what’s going to happen is our particular brand of managed democracy might be it’s own thing. It might be that Trump (at least for the time being) doesn’t do a lot of most dire abuses that I keep fearing.

So, in a sense, for the first few years of Trump’s second term not a lot will change for the average person just raising their kids. But as we approach 2024, Trump is going to make good on his demand to get “12 more years” and that will be the next major milestone.

But that point we’re really going to realize the United States is no longer a liberal democracy and House Trump can — and will — do whatever the fuck it wants.

Possible Blue And Red Second American Civil War Aims


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate living in terror of abstract fears, so let’s pace out the possible war aims of a “Second American Civil War.”

Red States
Red States would want to turn the United States into a dystopian hellscape. They wouldn’t come out and say it, of course, but they would want an America indistinguishable from modern day Russia.

Blue States
The Blue State war aims are a bit more complicated because they have wide variety to choose from. Does they want to leave the Union? Or do they want to stay and fight and transform the nation by doing so? On a basic level, I think Blue State civil war aims would passing a number of Constitutional amendments — maybe even calling a Constitutional Convention — that would take practical steps to end systemic racism, promote equality between the sexes and codify some much-needed political reforms like ending the Electoral College, overturning Citizens United and doing something about the Senate. (Ending the Senate, because it’s an existential part of the Constitution, would pretty much require writing a whole new Constitution — so dramatically reforming it makes a lot more sense.)

In both cases, whichever side won would have to do a Second Reconstruction. I’m growing more and more worried that WMD would be used in any theoretical Second American Civil War, which would not only lead to massive loss of life, but radicalizing both sides in the extreme.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

A Reminder To The Russians That History Is Extremely Unpredictable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, the Russians are looking at the possibility of a civil war in the United States with glee. They think Trump’s their guy. And “the worst the better” when it comes to civil war in the United States.

I would like to note that the Germans shipped Lenin to Russia in a sealed train, thinking it was a lulz. And we all know how that turned out.

So you just never know. While it’s obvious that the Russians think that Trump will either turn the United States into an autocratic managed democracy like themselves or the States will implode into civil war — sometimes “chaos agents” prompt chaos that turns around and bites the people who helped them in the butt.

I’m not feeling all that optimistic about the fate of the United States at the moment, but on a macro level, things may turn out in ways the Russians may live to regret.

‘Implosion’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At this point, it seems clear that only some pretty serious self-owns on the part of House Trump will stop a significant consolidation of power on their part. They’re very much in a position to steal the election and then continue to, in fits and starts, strangle liberal democracy in the United States.

I honestly struggle to imagine any situation where this doesn’t happen.

Or, put another way, when your only hope of saving liberal democracy in your country is the possibility that the bad guys will self-own then you got a serious problem. There’s every reason to believe that Barr is a lot smarter than Trump and our slide into fascism will happen in a rather uneventful fashion.

But there are some things to take inconsideration.

One is Newt Gingrich, Charlie Kirk and a seemingly endless parade of other MAGA-Qanon “thought leader” are chomping at the bit for a civil war. Obviously, I think Trump is going to steal the election rather easily, but there’s a chance that the Right has so whipped itself into a frenzy that they might prompt something akin to a civil war simply because they can’t control themselves.

Remember, the key to any Trump victory is apathy on the part of the average American. The moment their own, personal experience is dramatically disrupted, there’s a chance a lot of people who otherwise don’t care about politics might get woke.

That would change the dynamic of the whole situation rather dramatically.

Another thing to think about is even though Barr is well on his way to turning the United States into an autocratic managed democracy, Trump is still his boss. And a fish rots from its head.

But, I think all of that is just white noise. There’s not going to be a civil war and our fall into fascism is going to be continue to be slow and methodical. For that not to happen, a lot of center-Right people would have to really shock me and I just don’t see that happening.