WMD: The Dogs Of War That Haven’t Barked — Yet — In Ukraine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are in a very dangerous period in modern world history. Putin has put himself in something of a public relations box. Either he loses this war or he escalates. It’s my understanding that it’s standard Russian war doctrine to go down fighting — to escalate using WMD — if it appears clear that they’re going to lose.

I still don’t believe that, in real terms, Russia will face all that much in additional consequences if they decided to use low grade battlefield nukes on Ukraine. Hell, the Russians could use tactical nukes and I still don’t think anything would happen.

What is going to happen to them? NATO and the US don’t really have any desire to defend Ukraine directly as it is. They will have even less reason should nukes be used in some capacity. So, after the shock of the 75 year old taboo against the use of nukes being broken was passed, we would all move on.

Now, that doesn’t mean that there would not be consequences. It’s very possible that the Ukrainians would be even more enraged than they already are and the Russians would again have to either lose or escalate. But, even more importantly, the issue of how other nuclear powers would respond is something we would need to think about.

It seems as though the post-WW2 liberal order really would be over if the Russians attempted to nuke themselves out of a Ukrainian debacle. So, China might use nukes against Taiwan, the list goes on. Name a geopolitical hotspot where one or more of the potential combatants has nukes.

Anyway, we’ll see I guess.

I’m Growing Concerned About The Imminent Threat Of WW3



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me that the likelihood of some sort of mistake leading to a shooting war between NATO and Russia is growing every day. I always thought that if WW3 happened it would be because China invaded Taiwan or the DPRK invaded South Korea.

But given how aggressive NATO is being, it definitely seems as though something might go wrong and there could be the nightmare scenario of an actual shooting war between NATO and the Russian bear. Everyone involved would have a reason not to go nuclear, but that doesn’t mean a lot of people might not die in the process.

Or, put another way, some sort of limited nuclear exchange might happen between NATO and Russia — think what might have happened had the Cuban Missile Crisis gotten hot. If something like that happened, then all my hysterical doom shit about the rise of fascism in the United States definitely would take on a different context.

Just the EMP alone of a major American city being vaporized would be enough to change life for the millions who didn’t die in the blast itself. I’m just nervous in general, I guess.

These continue to be unprecedented times.

Are Comparisons Between Zelenskyy & Churchill Legitimate?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short Answer: We don’t know yet — and why are you asking me?

Long Answer:

I’m a big believer in the idea that people rise to the occasion — but they have to have the opportunity to rise to the occasion. It is rare for people not to rise to the occasion, though Trump is a recent instance of that very thing.

But Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, definitely seems to be rising to the occasion. And, yet, the verdict is still very much out. To this date, there are historical ne’er-do-wells who posit that Lincoln or Churchill weren’t all that great.

I think we want and need Zelenskyy to be the hero of the moment. It is interesting that the bar is so fucking low for modern leadership that Zelenskyy simply doing what we all assume our leaders will do — lead — is a huge deal. But, in general, the verdict is still out.

I wish him well and believe in him, though.

The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War’s Impending WW1 Endgame — We Have To Prepare For The Violent Collapse Of Putin’s Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History is a fickle mistress. Nowhere is this more obvious that than Russia. I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere — you probably shouldn’t listen to me — but I do have a hot take on Russia’s future.

It seems to me that Russia’s military in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. If that happens, then there could be a significant cascading series of events that ultimately leads to Putin’s downfall.

Given Russia’s size and the number of nukes it has, this would throw the entire world order for a loop. There could be loose nukes. Limited nuclear exchanges, you name it. But there would also be a lot of opportunity. Russia has huge unlocked potential and if there was some macro creative destruction in Russia, there is a chance that the nation could transform itself form economic backwater to economic powerhouse within a generation.

I say this in the context of global climate change. But the process of this propose transformation would be very bloody and very painful for millions –if not billions — of people.

So, I don’t know. But it would be very ironic if there was a Second Russian Revolution just as the United States had a Second Civil War and we switch sides politically and economically. Russia liberating itself just as America turns into a theocratic, autocratic state would be rather surreal and ironic.

But it’s very much a real possibility, given macro trends in both nations as we lurch towards 2024 – 2025.

The EMP Is Going To Get You


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of nervousness about the possibility that the Russians might use nukes of some sort against Ukraine. But there is something we need to take into consideration: it’s my impression that any time you use a nuke, you also get an EMP.

And, as such, if there was a a nuclear explosion, the first thing that would happen is we would get reports of all the electronics in the general area of the blast being zapped.

So, I wouldn’t get too excited if you see a really big explosion in Ukraine until you get such reports.

Stay Of Play For The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War For March 2, 2022: Contemplating The Fall Of Kyiv


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We really need to manage our expectations when it comes to this war in the near term. It could very well be that the Russians will “win” in the near term simply because they’re bloodthirsty enough to burn Ukraine to the ground to get what they want.

My fear for the future of Ukraine.

Part of this would be the fall of Kyiv.

What worries me is not so much what this would mean for events on the ground — the Ukrainians would keep fighting, no matter what — as it it would mean for the Western media narrative.

If and when Kyiv falls, then the Western media might grow a lot more doom -and -gloom about Ukraine’s prospects. To the point that they might move on to the next big news event. Which, come to think of it, they are going to do anyway, given the impending arrival of the political silly season later on this year as part of the the 2022 mid-terms.

So, in a sense, if the Russians don’t sue for peace, but rather escalate things and simply burn Ukraine to the ground, the whole thing might become background noise to the more pressing issue of Trump potentially becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.

Thus, I think we may look back on 2016 as the last “normal” year we’re going to have for a long, long time. In fact, the era between 2016 and, maybe 2030 could be seen as a macro “Great Reset” that either leaves humanity united and able to handle Big Issues like Global Climate change or hopelessly divided to the point that our continued existence is moot.

Anyway, the the clock is ticking. If the Russo-Ukrainian Winter war drags on beyond winter and is still going strong this fall, then everything will be different. If it’s still going on next year, then the quisling MAGA politicians who will then be running Congress may lulz the whole thing since they’ll be impeaching both Biden and Harris repeatedly.

Russo-Ukrainian Winter War State Of Play For March 1st, 2022: An Uneven Debacle


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though we’ve reached a very unnerving moment in this war, where both sides can claim victories. It seems as though things could go either way at this point.

Either the Russians back down and sue for peace, or Putin escalates things to the point where some form of WMD are used. It really could go either way. And, what’s more, we don’t know the long-term stability of Russia at the moment. Russia could collapse in a rather abrupt manner, given all the sanctions being imposed on it at the moment.

Remember, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once as the old saying goes.

On the ground, there seems to be something of a stalemate. But the Russians have begun to grow more aggressive in some of the weapons they are willing to use. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

I guess the point right now is there isn’t really any big news. The Russians continue to collapse here and there, and yet pick up some territory as well. There are fierce battles going on for Kyiv and Kharkiv. But, for the moment, the cities continue to be in Ukrainian hands.

But, we’ll see. It will be interesting where things go from here.

The Fate Of Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. So, it seems logical to assume that we have to begin taking seriously the idea that Putin’s Russia is going to rapidly grow unstable.

Everything from a simple palace coup to revolution then civil war is possible at this point. You thought a war between Ukraine and Russia was bad, just wait until a nation full of WMD implodes with no ready endgame.

Call it the Great Reset or the Fourth Turning, history has suddenly and violently woken from its somnambulism. This is one of those inflection points where anything can, and will happen.

The great maw of history is now open, tearing up decades of stability, norms and tradition in what seems like the blink of an eye. And, honestly, I think this is just the beginning of a much longer period of global instability. I say this because the United States remains on course to face the existential choice of civil war or autocracy in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

And that would just be the beginning of that process.

Either way — autocracy or civil war — the likelihood of WW3 happening would greatly increase because in either case the United States would likely be knocked out of global commission for the foreseeable future. If Trump becomes president again, in could very well pull us out of NATO as part of his fascist America First agenda.

Or, if we have a civil war, then we bomb ourselves into oblivion…opening the door to WW3 happening because, well, lulz, we will be too preoccupied destroying ourselves to do anything about it.

All I can say is — gird your loins. The remainder of this decade could, in fact, be very, very bumpy. Talk about vibe shift! It could be so bumpy, in fact, that either we endup in an extremely divided, hostile world or a far more united world that is prepared to deal with Big Issues like global climate change.

Russo-Ukrainian Winter War State of Play For February 28, 2022: Now What


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

State of play for February 28, 2022

Things continue to move quickly in the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. It definitely feels as though a number of different things are being put into place before the main event.

One thing that may happen in the next few days is a Siege of Kyiv. The Russians have a 40 mile convoy of military vehicles headed towards the Kyiv area. And it would make sense if they use all those vehicles to surround Kyiv and proceed to bomb it into oblivian.

But the main issue is how unstable things are right now. I just don’t know what the endgame is for all of this. Because there is the fear if Putin feels he’s in a box he may try to break out by using tactical or low grade nuclear weapons. If that happens, then we really are in a new era.

And not a good one.

The thing to keep in the back of your mind is the United States continues to careen towards a very dark, existential choice of autocracy or civil war starting around 2024 – 2025. So, in a sense, we’ve left the Rona Era and are now in a new era of some sort, the type where we don’t know where we will end up on the other side.

It could be that at some point after 2025, we will enter a far more united world because of the combination of a Second American Civil War and WW3. Or, the opposite could be true for the same reason. But, anyway, things have changed.

I Hope The Russians Love Their Children, Too


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The next few days will be crucial. I still struggle with the idea that Putin could potentially use nukes of some sort against Ukraine. But, remember, in real terms, there’s not much the West could do if he did, in fact, use them.

And, really, that’s not even the point of the problem. The point is the taboo against using nukes that has held since 1945 would end and suddenly one could begin to see the possibility of China using them against Taiwan or the DPRK using them against South Korea.

It is interesting to think about, however. To contemplate what the actual, specific implications of Russian using nukes of some sort on Ukraine might be. I think the shock of WMD being used on Ukraine would be something that would really make a lot of Americans who are indifferent to the current clusterfuck in Ukraine to sit up and take notice.

It makes you wonder, too, if using nukes would really do Putin all that much good. It’s not like the Ukrainians are going to give up, even if they are nuked. And Russia using WMD on the Ukrainians would only lead to a great deal of instability within their own nation.

But, if nothing else, the use of WMD by the Russians would push us into a new, uncertain era. Add to this how the United States is rushing towards its own crisis around the 2024 -2025 period and a lot of assumptions about the world are probably going to be challenged very, very soon.