The Singularity Is Near? We Need To Start Thinking About The Implications of Hard AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The latest version of OpenAI’s chatbot is really alarming me as an aspiring novelist. Right now, the chatbot is kind of in the Excel stage of being able to write something asked of it — but what happens when it reaches the Access stage and can write an entire novel — or screenplay — from nothing more than a logline?

Then what are we going to do?

My personal fears about the potential power of hard AI is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the issue of hard AI. It definitely seems as though THE issue faces not just the United States, but Humanity itself, is the sudden, abrupt rise of hard AI changing the lives of everyday people.

Now, this is where things get very murky.

The natural inclination — because of movies — is for us to all freak out and assume the absolute worst, that we’re lurching towards some sort of Judgement Day when Skynet will end human civilization just because it can. But I’m not prepared to be quite so hysterical.

There is nothing that would suggest that hard AI, unto itself, would mean the end of Humanity. We just don’t know what the motives of a true hard AI might be in regards to its relationship to Humanity. It’s just as possible that a hard AI might not want to destroy Humanity so much as it might want to control us in some way.

Why destroy Humanity, when you can be worshiped as a god?

It might be more than a hard AI would want to control humanity in some way. A hard AI might have some sort of paternalistic regard for Humanity in the sense that it might want to make us address macro issues like global climate change and the massive income inequality that is found across the globe.

But Humans are so natively ornery that the idea that we could be forcibly coerced into addressing the issues that we just don’t have the abstract ability to address collectively would be, unto itself, enough to cause a huge freak out. So, in that regard, it might not be hard AI that we have to worry about, it’s the Human reaction to suddenly sharing our tiny blue-green orb with The Other.

And, yet, of course, there is something even more important looming ahead of us before we get around to dealing with any potential hard AI problem — fucking malignant ding-dong Donald Trump.

Between now and spring 2025, we have to figure out what we’re going to do about Trump. He’s already actively calling for himself to be installed as a dictator and he could very well be the specific reason why the United States collapses into civil war in late 2024, early 2025.

As such, once we figure out that particular situation the NEXT thing we will be faced with is an Other of our own creation — no space aliens involved.

All of this is very speculative. There are any number of different directions all of this might go in the coming years. But I do think we need to start to think long and hard about what we’re going to do if we wake up one day and hard AI is a fact of life.

Hard AI could very well mean the a change in the way we view the world equal to the dawn of the Atomic Age, maybe even since, hell, I don’t know fire. The economic, political and culture implications of huge swaths of human endeavor suddenly being moot could radically change things in ways we can only begin to imagine.

The Media Football That Is CNN

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given that Warner Bros. Discovery has some $50 billion in debt, the company is going to face a lot of pressure to not just cut costs but to merge again. And to me at least, the ideal company for WBD to merge with is NBCUniversal.

But by definition, doing this throws the fate of CNN up in the air because of the obvious existence of MSNBC. The only way the two companies could pass anti-trust concerns would be CNN being sold off.

There are a number of different scenarios one could think of as to the fate CNN. One possibility is some MAGA plutocrat buys it and turns it into a Fox News clone. Another is someone like Jeff Bezos buys it and makes it his play thing along with the Washington Post.

Then, there is the possibility that Elon Musk could swoop in and buy CNN. Remember, CNN was built upon the ego of Ted Turner. So, it would be a return to its origins for it to be the plaything of something like Musk.

But the key thing you have to remember is, given how important CNN remains to be, there’s a good chance that it’s current drift towards MAGA is going to accelerate.

Pondering What Is Known About ‘Indiana Jones & The Dial Of Destiny’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From the title alone, it seems as though there may be some time travel involved in the latest Indiana Jones movie. But for me, the really intriguing element to the movie is the status of Phoebe Waller-Bridge. It sure would make a lot of sense for her to take up the fedora for a continuation of the franchise in some way.

While from what I’ve read of these things, both Harrison Ford and the producers of the film say this is not the case — so goes Ford so goes Indy — I still have a suspicion that they’re at least going to dangle the idea of Waller-Bridge somehow being an Indy-like character going forward.

Of course, if she did, the usual culture warrior suspects would come out of the woodwork to scream at the top of their lungs that the “woke cancel culture mob” is destroying yet another beloved American institution. But I would be all for Waller-Bridge being our new Indy.

I think she’s got exactly what it takes to for the role. I just don’t know how they would manage to shoehorn her character into the “Indiana Jones and the…” nomenclature. I suppose they would just keep “x and the x” system of naming in the spirit of the Ford-helmed films.

It would be interesting to see a Waller-Bridge type character doing Indy-style gallivanting in the 1970s and 80s. But I suspect what MIGHT happen, is if there is any recasting that we would see a hard reboot of the franchise in the guise of someone playing a “young” Indy having adventures in, say WW1 or so. I know there were the “Young Indy” adventures, but I’m thinking something closer to whatever the character might have been up to in their 20s.

I don’t really know the chronology of the character, so, lulz.

Having said all that, I still think Waller-Bridge would be a great Dr. Susan Calvin. There are the short stories in that universe that could be adapted into movies, my favorite being “Liar!”

But, anyway, lulz. No one listens to me.

Are Bonkers MAGA House Republicans Plotting To Draft Trump To Be Speaker of The House?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In general, I doubt Trump is interested in being Speaker of the House. He’s just too dumb to have the abstract cognitive abilities to do something so norm breaking and diabolical. All of his political instincts are little more than a grunt. And, remember, Trump is not a Great Man of History. He’s just a very lucky idiot who serves as an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage.

As such, if anyone is going to be Speaker who isn’t a member of the House, it’s probably going to be Newt Gingrich. He would be an ideal Trump proxy for bonkers MAGA House Republicans and he already has experience impeaching a Democratic president.

I don’t think we really appreciate what at fucking clusterfuck 2023 is shaping up to be on the political and impeachment front — despite the thin majority Republicans have in the House, Republicans there have one thing they all agree on: spite.

I could very well see Republicans impeach both Biden and Harris multiple times specifically to be extremely petty — they would want to take away the Democratic talking point of Trump being the only president impeached twice. At the same time, impeaching Biden (and Harris) a few times would retroactively make Trump’s impeachments no big deal.

“Everyone gets impeached,” MAGA House Republicans would say.

The only way I see there being a Speaker Trump is if the battle over the Spearship lingers long enough for it to catch Trump’s attention. I could see, maybe, Trump seeing an opportunity and swooping in to be Speaker because he’s the one person that the entire Republican caucus — or at least 218 of them — can agree on.

And don’t let yourself be fooled by the myth of the “moderate Republican” who would object to Speaker Trump. Ha! Just like there were probably moderate Nazis, there are “moderate” MAGA Republicans who will inevitable tow the line should they be forced to vote for a Speaker Trump.

I want to be wrong. But, then, I would prefer Biden and Harris not be impeached a few times between January 2023 and November 2024.

If Republicans take the House, which historically, they are favored to do, MAGA will have the power to impeach members of the Biden Administration. Given how fucking spiteful a Republican controlled House will be, it’s not a question of if more than one member of the Biden Administration will be impeached, it’s if there’s anyone who WON’T be impeached.

Here’s a back-of-the-envelope prediction about all the potential impeachments we should expect in 2023 if Republicans do, in fact, take the House.

President Biden
It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”

There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.

At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.

Veep Harris
I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.

DHS Secretary Mayorkas
As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.

HHS Secretary Becerra 
This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?

Education Secretary Cardona
This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.

FBI Director Wray
If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.

Attorney General Garland
This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.

There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.

Ok, Maybe Christmas

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have done some rough calculations in my mind and it’s looking like it’s going to be as late as Christmas before I wrap up this first draft. I say this pretty much because it’s proving far more difficult to force myself to write when I don’t really feel like it.

So, in a sense, I’ve developed some pretty bad habits where I just daydream a lot and write in bursts of creativity. I feel very sheepish about this because I’m kind of in an ideal situation to write and to actually buckle down and write even when I don’t feel like it is just don’t something I feel like doing.

I don’t want writing to be a chore. I love writing enough as it is to produce a lot of copy in one sitting, but this impulse to write happens at such random intervals that there is definitely a “drifting toward my goal” element to it all.

In my favor when it comes to speed is I’m in the third act and things are moving a lot faster for the reader, and, as such, should move a lot faster for me the writer. Some of the scenes are a bit problematic, however, so I have to psych myself up to write them. Which, of course, slows me down.

But I’m feeling pretty good, all things considered. For all its shortcomings, this first draft is, if nothing else, intriguing. I think, all things being equal, that if you didn’t know me and just picked it up that you would probably be interested enough in the plot and characters that you would finish it out of curiosity, if nothing else.

My source of inspiration.

Having said that, I’m well aware that I have a HUGE amount of work to do between the first and second drafts. I really have to force myself to leave my comfort zone on a number of fronts.

Everything from having to read more on a consistent basis to writing maybe even when I don’t feel like it are things I have to work on. And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of what I’m going to do about finding a literary type to help me with the other novels in this project.

It really hurts how I can’t even find one I can fucking pay to help me. What is it about my personality that so turns off literary types who I need to consult to finish these novels?

I guess if I actually sell the first novel, that might give me the credibility to persuade reluctant literary types to help me going forward. But thinking about THAT reminds me of how when prospective literary agents do due diligence on me THEY might dismiss me as a drunk crank.

Anyway, I remain very pleased with how things are going. I have the infrastructure of a great pop novel on my hands. It’s my responsibility to allow it to live up to its potential by working hard between first and second drafts to make it more professional and cogent.

The Rise Of The American Fourth Reich: The Cancer of Antisemitism Is Growing On American Politics

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. But there are some alarming trends in American politics at the moment that make me sit up and take notice. Take the rise of mainstream antisemitism within MAGA ranks. There is a very dark scenario that writes itself involving a Republican House refusing to raise the debt celling in 2023 and, as such, crashing the global economy.

That, in turn, puts America in 2023 in a very similar situation to Germany in 1933. Let the United States marinate in an extended deep recession for a few years and by 2024 it’s possible that if not Trump, then someone nastier — and younger — than he is could pop up and away we go.

We end up in something literally akin to an American Fourth Reich.

The issue for me is, there seems to be a lot of slack in the system for an increase in support for antisemitism. Now that people like Ye and Nick Fuentes are being given oxygen for their hate and not a lot is being done about it for the very reason nothing is ever really done about Trump, well, oh boy. Are we fucked. There could very well come a tipping point where things we never imagined possible in the United States — especially when it comes to the state of Jews here — could become a very cold, hard reality.

That sounds very hysterical, I know, but still. The conditions are definitely developing for something very, very dark to happen in the United States between now and spring 2025.

And, remember, I still believe that if there is a National Divorce, it won’t be Red States who do it, but rather Blue States who serve the papers. And it won’t be rolling political violence as predicted by Barbara F. Walter — it would be full blown secession at the state level.

But nothing suggests we’re going to have a civil war at the moment — I just don’t think Blues have it in the to do such a thing. Blues will bend a knee to autocratic Nazis MAGA fascism and that will be that. A shit ton of wealthy American liberals will flee the country and before you know it the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and, lulz, there you go. That will be my fate at some point after 2025.

I guess I need to write a breakout first novel so I can flee the country, huh.

I Still Desperately Need A Reader

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the biggest reasons it’s taken me so long to get to this point with this project is I’m doing everything in a vacuum. All I have is my own internal true north as to what to do. This has served me well, and, yet, I gave the first chapter of this first draft to a really creative woman I know and she startled me with how insightful some of her observations were.

Garp had a Reader

Things that I totally missed, she pointed out, leaving me feeling rather sheepish.

Add to this the fact that literary types apparently think I’m too big a drunk crank to even allow me to fucking pay them to help me with this project and, well, I sometimes feel like I’m developing and writing this novel with one hand behind my back.

But it’s not impossible to overcome. What is probably going to happen is when the time comes, I’m going to be a beta reader so I can find beta readers and a lot of the dumb mistakes I’ve missed because I don’t have a reader I’ll will get fixed. At least, I hope that’s what’s going to happen.

That’s the plan, at least.

All systems continue to be go for me to wrap up this first draft pretty soon. But I did a rough calculation in my mind today and I think I have to accept that it’s going to be closer to Christmas when I finish the first draft than I originally expected.

I continue to just drift towards my goal. It’s just a lot more difficult than I imagined to buckle down and write maybe when I’m not in the mood. But I’m hoping I’ve got it wrong. I’m hoping can summon the energy to put on my big boy pants and wrap this novel up as quickly as possible.

It’s a pretty interesting read, if I do say so myself. There is a lot — A LOT — of room for the characterizations to be fleshed out, however. Too many of the characters remain just moods that change as necessary for expediency sake. But, over all, I’m quite pleased.

I still need a Reader, though.

A Moment Of Truth

The alarming mainstreaming of antisemitism within MAGA ranks is something that if it continues is going to force a moment of truth for anti-anti-MAGA Jewish conservatives. At the moment, this particular vocal subset of MAGA complicit people are living in complete denial.

They generally support the fascist agenda of MAGA, but they can’t bring themselves to admit it. So they get really work up about the tactics of the anti-MAGA (Blue) political movement and qubble about the specifics of the dynamic between Blue and Red.

And, really, from what I can tell from what I read on Twitter, these anti-anti-MAGA Jewish conservative intellectuals would be more than happy to go full throated MAGA if things came to that. But, ironically, just as they are moving towards that decision, we have Ye and Nick Fuentes having dinner with ding-dong Trump.

Speaking of Trump, the issue of what will happen to Javanka should antisemitism consumes MAGA in the whole is going to be very, very interesting. In fact, I would even go so far as to say that the status of Javanka is something of the canary in the coalmine. If they get pushed out of the movement then that could be it — that could be the moment when anti-anti-MAGA Jewish people have to fish or cut bait when it comes to MAGA.

Fucking MAGA autocratic fascist.

That is going to be surreal to watch, should it happen.

I think what I’m most concerned about is not so much Trump but his successor. It’s also easy to imagine that if MAGA really does transform into American Nazism that some American Hitler might bubble up to the surface who will do some of nastier things to Jews — and people like me! — that Trump just doesn’t have to mental ability or discipline to pull off.

What makes all of this even more curious is we’ve been told for about 80 years now “Never Again.” And, yet, here we are — the same Goddamn thing that happened with Germany in the 1930s is happening in the United States. Or, at least, we seem to be drifting towards a similar dire situation. Of course, the key difference between MAGA and the Nazis is MAGA is movement of retraction of power while the Nazis were expansionistic.

The point is — I’m very alarmed. And it sure would make me feel a lot better if anti-anti-MAGA conservative Jewish intellectuals would actively join the anti-MAGA movement. It definitely will be interesting to see if that ever happens and how, exactly, it will go down if it does.

December 1st: D-Day For Beginning The Process of Wrapping Up The First Draft Of My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hope to sprint my way through the last 40,000 odd words that will make up the third act of this first draft of my first novel. That’s way too many words, given that I’m at just about the ~100,000 word mark right now. But this is the first draft and, as such, I’m giving myself a lot more leeway than I might otherwise do.

Inspiration in a bottle.

I have a massive amount of work to do between the first and second drafts, as well. But for me the issue is I’m in a pretty good position to make the second draft of this novel sufficiently professional in quality that when the beta readers are finally given it, I feel confident I won’t embarrass myself too much.

The beta reader process is going to be a whole different mindset for me to be in once I get that far. It’s going to be a real struggle to get anyone — and I mean ANYONE — to actually be willing to read the whole thing and give me the type of input I need. I may be forced to save up the money necessary to get an editor to do a run through of the beta draft to get it up to snuff.

If nothing else, this first draft is interesting, intriguing. It’s a real easy read with no literary aspirations at all. It’s meant, as I keep saying, an Old Brown Shoe for anyone who has read the original Stieg Larsson trilogy.

I really need to do a lot of reading, that’s for sure. That’s the only way I’m going to flesh out the second draft so it has an air of professionalism to it, the type your average reader of a pop novel will expect. I’ve come up with a very extensive universe and the issue is to put more of what I have in my mind about what’s going on on the page.

Anyway, I think it’s going to be really funny if, after talking about and writing about this first novel for a few years I actually to manage to produce something good enough that it gets published. But I still have a ways for that to happen. But I am still on track to query during the fall 2023 querying season.

The Era Of Viable Political Ambiguity Is Ending

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For way too long, there have been people who have refused to pick a side in the United States. They’ve just thrown up their hands and said “both sides” whenever people like me bring up the latest racist, misogynistic, bigoted thing that MAGA has done. They do this usually because they very sympathetic to MAGA, but aren’t prepared to fully align themselves with the fascist movement.

With the rise of antisemitic MAGA, however, MAGA is lurching closer and closer to being just another strain of Nazism, updated for modern sensibilities. As such, the Traditionalist and self-avowed “independants” who simply refuse to pick a side simply are fooling themselves.

Either you’re MAGA or you’re not. Either your an American Nazi or you’re not. There is no middle ground. Pick a side or a side will be chosen for you. The process of ending the perceived wiggle room between MAGA and anti-MAGA hasn’t finished just yet, but it’s getting there.

When it happens, I think a lot of Jewish anti-anti-MAGA conservatives are going to be in for a rude awakening because they’re pretty much going to be purged from MAGA. It seems pretty obvious to me that anti-anti-MAGA Jewish conservatives are living in a state of denial. They just can’t process that the very thing everyone keeps ranting about never letting happen again…is happening again. And it broad fucking daylight.

I can’t predict the future, but it’s not too difficult to sketch out a scenario between now and, say, spring 2025 when essentially the choice that everyone faces won’t be MAGA or anti-MAGA….but whether or not we want to live in an American Fourth Reich.

I am well aware of how hysterical that sounds, but sometimes the truth sounds hysterical until your mind is able to process what is going on. And, of course, there are plenty — plenty — of ways that we might, at last, find some sort of off ramp. But my bet is any off ramp will be a false victory — we’ll just punt our macro problems down the road an election cycle or two.

The issue is — America is pretty much fucked. Either we turn into the Fourth Reich or we have a civil war. That’s it. Those are our choices between now and spring 2025, barring something I can’t predict. There is, of course, the possibility of some sort of military junta, but that is only an abstract possibility in my mind.

It will be interesting to see how things work out. Macro trends are not on America’s side.