Angst For The Memories, Redux

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about being 50 and having the life I have at the moment is even if I manage to pull off any sort of success, it’s just not going to be the “normal” type of success. I’ve wasted way, way, way too much my life grieving over the failure of ROKon Magazine to the point that, lulz, any success I have is going to be surreal.

In other words, as I’ve often said, if I get what I want, I don’t get what I want. Even if I manage to somehow sell my first novel and I blow up with my DJ (novel) money, it’s not like I can just cruise into having the type of life I feel I deserve as a “success.”

The transition from drunk crank loser to “unique” successful old person will be surreal and jarring to the absurd degree. That’s probably one of the abstract things about getting older that people don’t tell you as a young person. Not all ages of your life are the same.

If I manage to write a break out hit novel, I’ll — at best — be in my mid-50s, a time when all my peers will be empty nesters and have one eye on retirement. This engenders no end of angst on my part.

I can’t change how old I am. I can’t change my personal history. Those things are so set in stone and immutable that I really — REALLY — need to manage my expectations. I could literally write a novel as popular as The Girl With Dragon Tattoo and I would still be, in the eyes of the elite, just a drunk bonkers crank.

It’s all very alarming and disconcerting. There’s just nothing I can do at this point to right my life so I have some semblance of a “normal” life. No matter what happens, I’m going to be weird at this point. If I just drift off into nothingness, then I’ve had a rather weird, uneventful life. But if I actually managing to make any sort of success of what time I have left on earth, all anyone will want to talk about is how I’m a success “later in life.”

Ugh.

Casually Mulling WW3

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my favorite novels growing up was Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising. The biggest problem I had with it — even as a young man — was the scenario totally glossed over what the domestic reaction to WW3 would be. With that in mind, let’s imagine that the wars going on at the moment fused together and became WW3.

The nation that connects Ukraine and Israel is Russia. If what’s going on between Israel and Hamas escalates, it would be Russia that could potentially link the two wars.

It would go something like this. Hezbollah strikes Israel from the north at the direction of Iran. Things grow so bad that Israel feels an existential threat and the nuke the capital of Hezbollah’s patron, Iran. Once Teheran is rubble, the 75-year old taboo against using nukes would end and Russia might feel emboldened to nuke Ukraine.

Once this happens, it is easy to imagine China going after Taiwan and the DPRK going after the ROK. Throw in India and Pakistan nuking each other while central Africa goes at it and you have WW3.

It makes you wonder if WW3 would be enough to unite the extremely divided United States. I have my doubts. The problems with the United States at the moment are macro and existential. I don’t even think a world war could unite America at this point.

We are very, very fucked.

It’s really just a matter of what bad thing happens.

Anyway, I don’t know if the American press would be able to handle an actual WW3. It would be a very interesting situation, however. Once the initial freak out faded, I think America would probably go back to the same old Blue-Vs-Red political war that we’ve been experiencing for some time now.

One issue would be if the Draft came back or not. That would be something that would catch the attention of the average person to the point that WW3 wouldn’t just be “over there.”

It’s Comical How Few People Take Me Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For various reasons large and small, in general, no one listens to me and no one takes me seriously. This has been a problem my entire life. But I have proven time and again that I actually do have some worth and I have surprised people by ability.

As such, it will be quite interesting what the reaction will be when I produce a third draft of this mystery-thriller that is actually…really good? There are some obvious existential problems with the novel, but I do believe that soon enough I will be within shouting distance of a novel that a literary agent might take seriously.

Or not. Who knows. I can’t help who I am. I am well aware that I can come across as a drunk crank at times. Ok, I get it. But I also know I’m a hard worker — especially if it’s something I believe in — and I’m also a good enough writer and storyteller that I have a career as a novelist ahead of me if things work out.

But I also know I’m notorious for being delusional. So, lulz. Who knows. I continue to be weary of the the fucking “Fourth Turning” and how everything could collapse starting in late 2024, early 2025.

I know I worry about this possibility way too much. But I continue to be alarmed at where the United States is going these days and it definitely seems as though we may not making it through the 2024 presidential cycle in one piece. But I can’t predict the future, so, maybe, we’ll just punt our problems down the road another four years and I will be able to query my first novel in peace.

The First Act Of The Third Draft Of My Mystery-Thriller Continues To Stabilize

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to be pleased with the state of the first act of the third draft of my homage to Stieg Larsson. It’s its on thing, but I definitely want this novel and the planned series it’s meant to be the beginning of to be an old brown shoe to be people who are fans of the original Millennium series.

I’m reaching a point where I have to stop being so hard on myself and just wrap the first act up so I can get into the rest of the novel. I’m getting there, but it’s slow going. I’m feeling a little insecure because not only am I not going to live forever, but I’ve been in a rather idyllic state of affairs for way too long and something is bound to happen soon enough that changes everything.

What’s more, the issue of the so-called “Fourth Turning” starting in late 2024, early 2025 is looming large in my mind these days. My fear is just as I’m getting serious about querying, civilization will collapse or some similar bullshit. But I suppose if the most likely thing happens — which is we slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, the overarching sentiment of the series, which is how much I fucking hate MAGA, will grow far more timely.

Of course, I could find myself wrapping up the last novel in the six novel project outside of the United States as a political refugee. Ugh.

So much could still go wrong at this point. But, sometimes, you just have to believe.

The New First Act Of Novel May Be Stable

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s possible that I’ve finally stabilized the first act of the third draft of my first novel. Maybe. Hopefully. Time will tell. I’m kind of desperate at this point to get something, anything, done so I can start to work on a new and improved remainder of the story.

I can’t just futz around with the first act forever. Somethings gotta give.

So, I hope to enter the second act sooner rather than later. That’s the goal, at least.

A Casual Assessment Of The Twitter Clones

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve signed up for all the major Twitter clones and here is a half-assed review of what I’ve found.

Pebble: it’s fine. Not a lot of people use it, though.
Post: Meh.
Spoutable: This one is actually rather hopping at times.
BlueSky: a high end smug liberal cocktail party before the booze kicks in.

Why The Good Money Is On Trump Winning Re-Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a very conservative relative — whom I love dearly — who is a part of the non-MAGA conservative base of the Republican Party. He hates Trump, even though he voted for him the second time. The last time I talked to him, he made it clear that he hates the “liberal agenda” so much that he will vote for Trump AGAIN if he wins the nomination in 2024.

Another interesting element to our discussion is how angry he still is over what happened with COVID. I keep telling him that the average person just doesn’t care anymore, but that doesn’t stop him from ranting about how the government lied and did a lot of unnecessary damage. He is very curious in the candidacy of RFK, Jr. because of this.

Just from my conversation with him, it seems clear that Trump is going to win in 2024. At least it seems so at the moment. The differences between Red and Blue have grown so extreme that people like my relative — who in the past were strong believers in traditional American democracy — now are willing to sell their birthright to a malignant fascist ding-dong like Trump just so they can “own the libs.”

As such, I think we need to start to prepare for a rather dystopian future starting in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that Trump is so astonishingly tyrannical starting in 2025 that the U.S. Military does the unimaginable — it steps in and deposes Trump.

Or maybe not. I just can’t predict the future. But it definitely SEEMS like we’re heading towards some rather major historic event within the next 18 months.

Feeling Creatively Restless

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It appears that I MIGHT have a pretty good path to wrapping up the first act of the third draft of this novel pretty soon. The third draft might also be too long to the point that it needs to be cut into two novels connected by a cliffhanger.

Maybe.

I’m not prepared to do that just yet. The macro structure of the novel has changed so much that I have no idea how long it will ultimately be.

But all of this is happening as I grow creatively restless. I continue to have a lingering desire to have a second creative track that I can turn to whenever working on the main novel turns into too much of a chore.

I have at least three other really strong novels that I could turn to. But all of this is happening in the context of my turning 50 and a lingering concern about what is going to happen in the United States starting in late 2024, early 2025. I have a real fear that just as I’m querying my first novel that the entire world could go tits up in a rather dramatic manner.

Or any number of other things could happen that would make finishing may main novel a lot more difficult. The key thing is — I’m in put up or shut up mode now. I just have to finish something and start to begin the post-production, pre-querying stage of things. I’m not going to live forever.

Is The United States A Modern Austro-Hungarian Empire….Or The Ancien Regime?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is an unsettled place at the moment. We all sense that we’re careening towards a dark future, a momentous event of some sort that would start within the next 18 months.

But there are a lot of theories about what we should compare modern American to. Some people point to the collapse of the multi-ethnic Austro-Hungarian Empire at the end of WW1, while people like me see a closer analogy to the state of affairs with the French Ancien Regime in the days leading up to the French Revolution.

I just don’t see a comparison to the Austro-Hungarian Empire being adequate to explain what’s going on in the United States at the moment. The Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed because it was a bunch of small nations fused together. The United States, meanwhile, has a very clear sense of national unified national identity that is being frayed by a combination of a growing sense of white nationalism and more economic agency for women.

I do think that we face not one, but three main possible futures starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The first, most obvious, option is we peacefully slide into some sort of MAGA-themed autocracy. About 1 million smug, wealthy liberals leave the country and there is a total re-alignment of the post WW2 liberal global order as the United States leaves NATO and South Korea and forms an alliance with Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

The second, less likely option is Biden wins and Trump, in an effort to avoid going to prison, freaks the fuck out and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce. The country implodes into civil war. WW3 happens in conjunction with this and about 1 billion people die.

The third, far less likely option is a French Revolution type situation when Trump’s tyrannical, erratic behavior grows so unbearable to enough people that there is some sort of collective uprising against MAGA. The country breaks apart, but only in conjunction with the broader effort on the part of Blues to re-unite the country under a Third Republic. All of this might happen in the context of the U.S. Military stepping in at some point, as well.

But, in general, the issue is a number of macro trends are all heading to a conclusion around the same point in the future. What’s more it’s possible that we may be heading towards something akin to a “Petite Singularity” that would involve AI eliminating an unpreceded number of jobs a very short amount of time.

All of this is, of course, very speculative. Anything can happen in the future. I totally misjudged what happend with Trump in 2020. I can’t predict the future, but that doesn’t stop me from being….alarmed.

Ugh. Word Count

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The rule of thumb is the sweet spot for your first novel is somewhere between 80,000 and 100,000 words. There is a chance that I may FINALLY have figured out a suitable beginning to the third draft of this novel and yet the first act has ballooned to about 48 scenes. In general, each scene is 1,000 words and so that’s potentially 50,000 of my 100,000 allotted words right there.

My novel has a Barry-esque element to it.
The first step is to just write the thing and see what happens. There is a chance that the whole novel is going to be about 140,000 words, which is about what The Girl On The Train is, as I understand it.

At that point, I have two options.

One, I could theoretically figure out a way to split the novel into two, self-contained novels. This would be difficult, but not impossible. This is what happened to my first serious attempt to write a novel in this universe. Those two novels are now the last two novels in what is projected to be a six novel project. If I did split this novel into two, that would really help me keep it being a six novel project while eliminating what is now the second novel because I’ve been struggling to figure out what to do with it.

The last option is to say fuck it and just try to sell a novel that is 140,000 words. The success of The Girl On The Train proves that it’s not impossible to sell a novel that is a little bit longer, as long as it’s good.

I think the solution to this problem is to just finish the third draft and then pause to take stock as to what I’m going to do.