Death By Vibes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One sign that the country is in deep, deep trouble is how the Right has constructed out of whole cloth all these conspiracies about how “woke” corporations are going to do all these horrible things to them at some point in the near future.

It is now gospel within far Right podcasts that unless Trump becomes POTUS again, that “woke” banks will deny them services simply because of their political views. And the list goes on. They have convinced themselves that just by being conservative, the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to destroy their lives and drive they and their families into the streets.

They have only the vaguest proof that this is going to happen. In short — they have vibes.

MEANWHILE, these very same MAGA Republicans totally ignore a growing amount of evidence that suggests that in cold, hard ways all the tyrannical things that Trump plans to do the moment he can. And it’s not like he’s hiding it. All he does is talk about the tyrannical things he wants to do.

Whenever you bring up any of these tyrannical things to a MAGA Republican, they piviot to all the weird conspiracy theories they’ve heard from far Right podcasts about what they believe “woke” corporations are planning to do. They either do that, or they try to mitigate or rationalize out of existence the dangers posed by things like Project 2025 by saying, “I look at Project 2024 and it just looks like a regular policy agenda to me.”

Oh boy.

All of this yet again makes me think about what will happen if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025. The key issue is — Trump is so lazy and stupid that he just doesn’t have the political chops to transition the United States into a Russian-style autocracy without there being SOME backlash. Even Putin, who had a tradition of autocracy and a nation in chaos, gradually transitioned the country into an autocracy.

So if Trump goes nuts and goes full tyrant the moment he’s in office again — the shit is going to hit the fan. I can only assume there will be a spectrum of far Right podcasts listeners should this happen.

On one end of the spectrum will be people who are all-in to Trump’s tyranny. They will be proactive Good Germans who cheer on the country’s transition into a white Christian ethnostate — they will be getting what they have longed for and there will, at last, no chance that a “woke” bank will come after them for listening to Joe Rogan.

MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER END of the spectrum, there will be people who will blanch at the tyranny and chaos that Trump will cause. It is these people that we have to keep an eye on. If these Traditionalists simply sit on their hands should their be a Blue General Strike, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to depose Trump in some way.

But, plot twist, if that happens, then there probably will be a civil war as Red States leave the Union in rage that Trump has been deposed.

So…lulz?

What Will Indicate We’re Fucked Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still am not convinced that the worst is going to happen to the United States. There is still enough time for something to happen that will cause us to muddle through the 2024 presidential silly season unharmed. And, yet, I continue to worry that we’re totally and completely fucked.

Here are some events to look for starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The Taking of Trump Tower / Conservative Media
One sign that the country is on the cusp of a civil war / revolution is Trump Tower may be stormed by angry New Yorkers. Also in danger would be the headquarters of the major conservative media outlets in the city. There might even be talk of there being a Free State / City being created in New York City.

Political Rivals Being “Disappeared” by Tyrant Trump

If Trump is elected again, one sign he’s going to hard tyrant route will be him arresting his political rivals on trumped up charged. This, in turn, will cause many, many liberals to flee the country in general because they have the means, motive and opportunity to do so. They will probably first go to Canada, then flee all over the globe, changing the make up of global culture as they do.

Mass Migration

As I mentioned, there is a good chance that if Trump goes nuts and becomes The Red King that many, many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will flee the country. Meanwhile, depending on how exactly things work out, if there is a National Divorce instead of Trump becoming a Tyrant King, there will be a lot of bouncing around the country as Reds leave Blue States and Blues leave Red States. If you see press reports of that kind of stuff happening — you need to grab your bugout bag.

Secessionist Conventions

If there is some sort of National Divorce — started by either Blues or Reds — keep a look out for Secessionist Conventions to being called up. If Blues leave the Union, I suspect California will be the first to go, while if it’s Reds, it will be Texas. One thing that will be interesting to see — if it’s Reds who leave the Union, how many of the deranged MAGA people in Congress actually leave their cushy jobs in Washington D.C. to join a rebel government?

World War Three
If the United States collapses into chaos, the WW3 is probably going to happen. The entire post WW2 liberal order will collapse and any number of simmering hotspots around the globe will flare up, to the point that at least 1 billion people might die if nuclear weapons are used. And those 1 billion people will die specifically because of Donald Trump.

I’m Growing Uneasy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a survivor. So as we careen towards the 2024 presidential silly season with the greater-than-zero chance that all hell will beak loose because of it, I find myself dwelling on what I will do if my worse fears come true.

I’ve written about this before, but my concerns continue to linger. I’m kind of a Blue spot in a sea of Red where I live and if the country collapses into stark worlds of Red and Blue — something’s gotta give. I just won’t be able to live in where I live anymore because my politics will inevitably be figured out and, besides, I would prefer not to live in Trumplandia, anyway.

I suppose if things got really bad, I could make a trek to Richmond where I have some relatives — but that would only be a stopgap measure because if things have gotten so bad that I have to flea my home, Virginia will be in chaos. In chaos to the point that I — and many others — will be fleeing the state for more stable states.

Virginia is two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. If there is any sort of revolution or civil war, Virginia will be one of the first states to collapse into political bloodshed. I suppose the longer-term solution to my problems in the event of a civil war / revolution would be to head farther north to something north of the Mason – Dixon line.

I suppose it’s possible I’ll endup in a big refugee camp in somewhere like Pennsylvania, update New York or Maine. The dream, of course, would be to get to enjoy some fun new life in New York City. But, alas, the more I think about it, the more I probably will be stuck in a refugee camp.

Anyway, all of that is “hysterical doom shit.” And very, very speculative. It’s at least possible that somehow, magically, we’ll be saved by some sort of Black Swan event or Biden will win, Trump will fail to cause a National Divorce and I can keep trying to sell my first novel.

Political Event Horizon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, the old adage is you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. The closer we get to Election Day 2024, the more I find myself worrying about how surreal late 2024, early 2025 may be.

The thing is — I can’t predict the future, so I just don’t know what is going to happen.

Our best case scenario is Biden wins, Trump rants a lot about a National Divorce…and no one listens to him. Then Biden manages to live long enough into his second term that there is a reasonably stable transition to Kamala Harris.

But that is really, really the best case scenario. There is a lot of evidence to suggest there is a non-zero chance that some pretty fucking dramatic things might happen, no matter who wins in 2024. If Trump loses, we may have a civil war. If Trump wins, we may have a Blue Revolution…and then a civil war.

They key thing to consider, as I’ve mentioned before, is the fact that on an institutional basis the Republican Party has grown both radical and beholden to Trump to the point that even though the average MAGA person might not be willing to fight it out in the streets, the state Republican Parties are so radical that they may force the issue one way or another.

And, remember, all of this is happening because of vibes. Republicans — because of the browning of America and the increasing secularization of society along with the widespread adaption of feminism — feel put upon. They often don’t even know why they’re so angry, but they are.

I like to speculate that the issue is angry white Christian (men) just don’t want to talk about abortion or gay rights. They don’t mind if you have an abortion, they just don’t want to have to think about it. They want it to be a deep personal shame that requires you to “leave town,” only to return with everyone giving you the stink eye.

The same with being gay. They, on a personal basis, don’t mind if you’re gay, but they want it to be a deep personal shame. They want it to be something done in secret that is only whispered about.

And that goes for a whole list of other things that divide America at the moment. And, of course, some of all of this is just people are getting old and they don’t understand the Youngs and their newfangled world views.

Anyway, I’m growing ever more alarmed at what is happening politically in the United States. It will be interesting to see if we make out alive. I would like to query a novel in peace and quiet.

‘April 2025’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a series of milestones during the year that mark the progression of the year for me. One of these markers is my high school’s homecoming. That happens this weekend and it causes me to think about a year from now and to wonder what the world will look like in April 2025.

Mood.

It could very well be that all my “hysterical doom shit” will turn out to be just that and we’ll somehow muddle through to the point that a year from now won’t be much different from today.

But there is a greater-than-zero chance that things may be so fucked up the next time my high school has its homecoming that either it doesn’t happen or the context will be so different that I won’t really feel like going. I don’t think we appreciate how crazy things could get starting in late 2024, early 2025.

And the craziness could happen if Trump wins or loses. If he loses, he could demand a National Divorce to stay out of prison and if he wins, by April 2025, the country may be in the middle of a historic uprising against his tyranny.

Or not. I just don’t know.

I am, however, very unnerved by what we have to look forward to in the next year.

The America MAGA Wants

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have already as a nation collectively accepted that someone can lose the popular vote by millions and still win because they win a few states that are crucial to the Electoral College count. What MAGA wants is to take things to a step further.

MAGA craves an America where we just give up. What I mean by this is MAGA, once they have power again, will fuck with the administration of elections to the point that it’s clear that we’re a Russian-style “managed democracy” and MAGA will run the country for the foreseeable future.

Trump has already told us that he wants paper ballots and no mail-in voting. What’s more, it seems as though should Trump become POTUS again that he will actively use the Justice Department to go after any one he sees as a potential political threat. He will simply say, “the Democrats did it to me, now I’m returning the favor.”

And those possibilities are just the beginning. Under the right circumstances, it definitely seems as though as part of the MAGA consolidation of power, we might face a Constitutional Convention at some point in the not-so-distance future.

Now, there are some problems with this hysterical doom shit on my part.

One is, well, Trump.

Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid that if he becomes president again he will probably thrash around in such a tyrannical fashion that even Traditionalists, who would otherwise be the “Good Germans” of American autocratic life, might sit up and take notice.

It’s one thing to use the Justice Department to go after your political opponents, especially with its gospel on MAGA podcast that “lawfare” has been used against Trump, and it’s quite another to snatch people off the street and throw them into a Trump-branded concentration camp.

Another issue is the United States is a huge, diverse nation and it would take a deft political hand in the best of historical circumstances for someone to successfully transition the United States into what it seems we’re drifting towards at the moment — an autocracy.

So, it seems reasonable to assume that because Trump is so dumb and lazy that he won’t even try for a Constitutional Convention to make it legal for him to run for a third term. He’ll just do it. And he could very well do any number of brazenly illegal things that will be challenged at SCOTUS. Because Trump is so outrageous and brazen in his tyranny, he will lose at SCOTUS. But it won’t matter because Trump will just ignore the decision.

As such, Trump could very well force the country to the breaking point. We will all collectively have to decide if we’re a nation of laws or if we have so given up that Trump can just be a tyrant and it’s all a big lulz. I think THAT is Trump’s ultimate historical purpose — to either destroy America as a Republic based on laws, or to cause us to fight it out in a revolution / civil war until one side or the other gets to run things.

I don’t want a revolution / civil war. That would really suck, as the movie “Civil War” proves. But, on an abstract basis, it definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 MAY be *IT*. We, as a nation, will be forced confront a fork in the political woods and I honestly have no idea which path we will pick.

America May Just Give Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The fact that a malignant ding-dong like Trump remains 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS is a pretty good sign that on a macro basis, the United States may have just turned into a shrug emoji. The average person simply can not, will not process the idea that the abstract of 250 years of democracy is more important than the cost of eggs.

And, but for one thing, I would believe the US is on the cusp of slouching towards autocracy and the transition into a “managed democracy” like that found in Russia will be swift and done without violence. And that one thing is ding-dong Trump.

Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid that he could very well single-handedly cause the United States to descend into situation where some pretty surreal events happen. Now, obviously, there is a chance that general placid nature of Americans will cause Trump to get away with going full tyrant without incident.

But there is also a chance that he will be so fucking conspicuous in his tyranny should he become POTUS again that Traditionalists — who would otherwise be the core of his support going forward — will blanch. I don’t expect them to actively agitate for Trump to be deposed, but I do think that if something like a Blue General Strike happened that they might sit on their hands and let events unfold.

Though, of course, if Trump was somehow magically deposed — either through successful impeachment in the Senate or the U.S. Military stepping in — there probably would be a Civil War because Red States would be enraged.

All this goes back to the key issue — late 2024, early 2025 could see the United States be the most politically unstable since the end of the Civil War. Win or lose, Trump could cause the earth to stand still. If he loses, he could rant about the need for a National Divorce, which would cause a civil war. Win, and he could be so bad at being a tyrant that he’s deposed…which causes a civil war.

As I’ve written before, the only way we get out of the 2024 election in one peace is if Trump loses and he just drift peacefully off the national stage until he tries to be president again in 2028.

That’s it. That’s all I got. Otherwise, we’re fucked.

MAGA’s Obsession With Banning Contraception Is Extremely Dangerous & Corrosive

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. It is clear to me that MAGA Nazis want to replace the Administrative State with the Moralistic State. The great irony of it all is, of course, if you talk to a lot of Traditionalists they will lulz the idea that MAGA Nazis would come after birth control.

They simply don’t believe it possible.

What makes all of this such a fucking clusterfuck is contraception is, at its heart, not only a moralistic issue, but also an economic one. The thing about the fucking MAGA Nazis is the vessel for their tyranny is ding-dong Trump who could very well, unto himself, cause the collapse of the United States into chaos and anarchy.

Any other Republican in Trump’s historical position could easily escort the United States into autocracy. They would be smooth about it and gradually consolidate power in such a way that most people who weren’t obsessed with politics wouldn’t even notice.

But the person that history has entrusted with transitioning the US into an autocracy is such a fucking lazy idiot that he could very well be deposed in some way through a Blue Glorious Revolution, which, would, in turn cause a civil war because Red States wouldn’t stand for it.

And, yet, there’s just so much unknown about what may happen in late 2024, early 2025. I spend all this time thinking about the absolute worst possible scenario when it’s possible…lulz, we just kind of muddle through. The only reason why I have my doubts about that is if Trump is re-elected he will go out of his way to push America to the brink of collapse.

The Radicalization Of Traditionalists Is Quite Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the many signs that the bolts are popping off the United States as we careen towards the 2024 presidential election is the clear radicalization of the otherwise principled Traditionalists in my life. Traditionalists are the backbone of any stable democracy and the idea that they would go full MAGA because of “vibes” is very disturbing.

What I mean by “vibes” is the fact that a lot of Traditionalists don’t have a problem with gay people or abortion, but they feel these things should be done in private and with shame attached. In other words, they just don’t want to have to think about it or talk about it. They know being gay or having an abortion exists, but they see them as a “personal problem” that should be treated as personal disaster.

That’s why Traditionalists in principle are against being gay or having an abortion but they would be cool with it if someone in their family turned out to be gay or if they had to have an abortion. Now, I think this means they’re big ol hypocrites, but lulz, America may have a civil war soon because of these “vibe” issues.

The Traditionalist in my family — who I love dearly — have grown so radicalized that their ONLY red line when it comes to MAGA and Trump is the personal. At the moment, they are willing to give up their American birthright of democracy willfully and with a bit of glee if it means abortion is illegal and trans people magically vanish from any form of public discourse.

When I bring up the idea that Trump may go full tyrant on us if he’s re-elected, they dismiss the idea that such a thing is possible because he was all talk the first time, so it makes sense to them that he would be all talk the second go around. And the, in general, support Trump rounding up undocumented people and putting them in camps….even as they just give you a blank stare when you try to tell them the nitty-gritty of such a plan.

“I just want to be left alone,” is their mantra to the point that they don’t give you a yes-or-no answer when you ask them if they would support a National Divorce should Trump lose the 2024 election.

All of this is very personal to me because I *do* think Trump will go full tyrant if he’s re-elected and, as such, there’s every reason to believe that if Trump builds out the infrastructure round up undocumented people he might throw loud mouth cranks like me into the mix as well.

Then and ONLY THEN, will principled Traditionalists take notice. When I get snatched off the street because I won’t stop calling Trump a fucking cocksucker no matter what, THEN they will begin to have second thoughts about their support of Tyrant Trump.

If that is in fact the case, the specter of Trump potentially being deposed in some way begins to become a viable scenario. Talk about bonkers! But, wait, it gets worse — if Trump is deposed in some sort of Blue Glorious Revolution, then, of course, Red States would probably leave the Union in protest.

Ugh.

We Risk Becoming An Autocracy Because People Care More About Inflation Than The Abstract Of Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long said that the United States is currently an autocracy without an autocrat. The only thing stopping us from sliding peacefully into Hungary-like autocracy is, well, the fact that Democrats are in power.

Once that changes, that’s all she wrote. We become an autocracy.

This really hit home when I recently had one of my monthly political debates with a far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly. They’ve been completely radicalized because of the culture wars and a general sense of being put upon by the “woke cancel culture mob.”

They have an extensive permission structure built out in their minds for various reasons, but to put a fine point on it, they simply hate the vibes and are willing to vote for a fascist like Trump if that means white Christians can have some security in what they feel is a increasingly secular — and gay — America where not enough of those sweet, sweet white babies are being born.

I’m obviously joking and exaggerating, but that is, in a sense what is going on. White Christians don’t like the direction country is going so they latch on things like the price of groceries when what is really going on is they feel weirded out that some women aren’t ashamed of having abortions and gay people becoming more noticeable.

That’s the thing that is so interesting about what’s going on — I get the sense that a lot of white Christians don’t really have a problem with abortion or being gay, but they DO have a problem with having to talk about it. And, of course, they hate how they feel smug Twitter liberals look down on them.

All of this is the culmination of decades of macro trends all coming together at once — The Fourth Turning, if you will.

So here we are. Waiting around for autocracy to come to America. That’s the general trend at the moment — America is heading towards a white Christian ethnostate one way or another.

Of course, the great irony is that because Trump is the vessel for these macro trends that some pretty surreal, unprecended things MIGHT happen in late 2024, early 2025.

Maybe. I can’t predict the future. But the CONDITIONS are there for some pretty fucked up shit to happen. There is a non-zero chance that Trump gets elected and is so fucking bad at being the person responsible for transitioning us into autocracy that some sort of effort to depose him happens. And if that “Glorious Revolution” is successful, then the specter of a civil war is a real possibility because Red States will get mad and begin to leave the Union.

It’s sad that everything is so fucked up.