Tag: Orange Man IS Bad Shithead

The Strange Case Of Everyone Wanting A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This blog gets very few hits, but I’m getting a growing amount of traffic from people obviously interested in my dystopian hellscape scenarios about some sort of Second American Civil War.

What gives?

Well, this seems to be a pretty complex question. Some of this comes from a number of macro political trends coming to a head at the same time. The rot in the American political system — exemplified by rise of Donald Trump — is so bad that growing number of MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads on an abstract level want the opportunity to murder “libtards” in cold blood.

The question, of course, is why.

I think some of it comes from the absence of something — Trump actually being an autocrat. When MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads voted for Trump in the first place, they thought they were getting the guy from The Apprentice. They thought he would be an autocrat who would destroy American democracy once and for all and put globalist cucks in their place.

Alas, as has been proven repeatedly over the last five-odd years, Trump is NOT an autocrat in the traditional sense. Trump has autocratic impulses and he has a lot of power by just, well, being himself, but he’s not a leader and he’s really just a lazy, incompetent ding-dong. If you want my proof — all I have to do is point out that had Trump struck in an autocratic fashion right before or right after the election, he probably would be cruising into a stolen second term. What’s more, there probably would be a civil war or secessionist crisis because at that point, Blue States would be so upset that they would leave the Union. This would give Trump the legal cover to take over Blue States, reconstruct them in his own image and give the MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads the autocracy they so crave.

But, guess what! Trump’s an idiot. A lazy idiot.

So, while Trump is an avatar for the rot of the American political system, he doesn’t have something that Hitler had — an actual willingness to force the matter as necessary when politics got in the way. It’s because of that absence of focus on Trump’s part that I have come up with all these pretty simple ways Trump could stay in office as long as he wanted….only to have him not do any of them because, well, he’s a ding-dong and not an autocrat.

And I think that’s the source of a lot of people who come to the site’s curiosity — they know a martial law, secession and civil war SHOULD be happening right now….but it’s not. And they can’t figure out what happened. They’re so busy sucking Trump’s cock and fucking their guns that they don’t realize that Trump simply isn’t the autocrat they wanted.

This is not to say that such an autocrat won’t arise. There are about a half dozen people waiting in the wings to complete the process Trump has started. The ironic thing is, Trump is such an idiot and wants all the power but none of the responsibility that for the time being, he’s freezing out Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo or whomever from becoming president in 2024 and doing all the things that MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads believe should be happening NOW.

It’s still possible that Trump is going to lose his fucking mind and somehow start a civil war. But the thing that MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads don’t realize is they don’t actually live in Russia. Trump can’t just tweet that we’re under martial law and good old boys can now start murdering liberals Purge style without any consquences.

There would have to be some reason, some catalyst for martial law to be declared and Trump has waited so long that if he did try to take “total control” at this point, first the U.S. Military would ignore him and second soon enough Joe Biden would be legally POTUS and, well, fuck you, you fucking cocksucker shitheads.

So, it’s still possible a civil war could break out any moment (I guess.) But it’s just not going to happen the way MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cocksucker shitheads think it would.

More likely, this is the beginning of a process that will lead to a civil war at some point between now and, say, 2025. But I can’t predict the future. Who knows.

Our Craven Ding-Dong POTUS Faces His Final Political Test



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of different things are happening at the same time. One issue is that several different macro trends in American politics have come to a head. The rage that 38% of the electorate feels about the changing nature of American society combined with how white working class men can’t get laid has led to significant rot in the American political system.

Red State rural areas and Blue State urban areas simply have a fundamental difference of opinion about what constitutes America. MAGA and MAGA friendly people think that by definition to be conservative is to risk being “canceled” — have their life ruined — for simply being conservative. And that, is the source of a lot of the rage and willful ignorance on the part of such people.

There are a number of pretty huge problems standing in the way of MAGA getting want they apparently want right now — 4 more years of Trumplandia. The biggest obstacle to this goal, ironically enough, is Trump himself. If he struck in some autocratic fashion before the election was called — or even before the election — then he probably would have gotten away with it. There are many, many different autocratic things he could have done that would have allowed him to stay in office to varying degrees of success.

But he didn’t do any of them and now that the Electoral College has voted, it’s now much, much harder for Rudy to use his usual disinformation techniques to run slipshod over democracy since we’re now, again, in a political crisis. The reason we’re in a political crisis — even if we don’t see it for that — is only through extra-political measures can Trump stay in power.

Or, put another way, the soft coup techniques he used in the courts recently would have to be replaced by hard coup techniques of an actual autocrat. But there are a lot — a lot — of problems for Trump going forward to pull such a thing off.

Many of his followers are begging Trump to go full-autocrat and declare martial law, or what have you. But there’s an important element of this they miss — Trump can’t just do this out of the blue. If he did — no one would follow his order.

What he COULD do, is goad his followers into some sort of Reichstag Fire event which he could then, in turn, use to invoke the Insurrection Act and attempt to maybe stay in power no matter what. But, again, even then, now that the Electoral College has voted…that’s a pretty dubious strategy. Even if something happened out of the blue — like a war with Iran or the DPRK or a coordinated series of political killings or Oklahoma City type bombings — Trump’s time in office is growing to an end.

Really, it seems to me Trump has one ace up his sleeve — in a sense: he could just snap and go completely fucking bonkers and thrash around, trying to destroy the country as much as possible on his way out. There are any number of pretty insane things he could do. He could start tweeting about how Red states need to leave the Union before January 20th. He could attempt to arrest any number of people he doesn’t like as a negotiating tactic so HE doesn’t go to prison after he leaves office.

But, remember, pretty much at any moment now, some pretty lit extra-political events might happen because Trump is hoping he can win in Congress Jan. 6th because that’s a POLITICAL event.

And, yet, I’ve overestimated Trump’s actual political ability so many times over the years, that what’s more likely to happen is we’re just going to drift into the Biden Era. Things will be in political neutral for about two years until the House flips and Biden is impeached for Hunter Biden’s laptop (or whatever) and there will be a lot — a lot — of surreal political discourse as suddenly our political norms snap back into place while, at the same time, Trump keeps doing what he’s always been doing an we just shrug.

Like we always do.

But there is a good chance that the weeks leading up to Jan. 20th are going to be unpredictable, unstable and extremely bumpy. How, exactly, all the plays out is anyone’s guess.

My Personal Second American Civil War Plans — Head To NYC As A Political Refugee


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have repeatedly said in the past that if the End ever comes I’ll either be the first person to die or the guy who brings back civilization. So, if a Second American Civil War happens, I’m my vision is I pack up my few belongings and head north to NYC.

But first, some context.

This is really a delusional idea — for the moment — because of what it would require. When I lived in South Korea, I did really well there because every day was an adventure and everything is extremely chaotic. But for things to get so bad in the United States that I would have an infrastructure to get me to some sort of Revolutionary NYC, then, well, things would have to gotten very bad indeed.

I guess me talking about such — at the moment — delusional things is me simply giving myself some solace that I have A Plan, if need be. But I do know that I manage to get to NYC under the conditions of this dystopian hellscape, I would probably do quite well for myself. I’m really good at abstract thought and I’m a pretty good organizer.

If nothing else, it would be pretty cool (in a sense) to live in the Manhattan Commune, or whatever the Revolutionary Government there would be called. The idea such a thing would even ever exist is, in itself, rather dubious. But it just makes sense that of all the potential places for a Commune, NYC , LA and Boston would be it.

Or to put things another way — I’m not going to sit on my hands if America goes tits up. I’m going to use whatever talents I might have to try to make people’s lives better again.

And, really, there’s a good chance SCOTUS is going to punt this particular problem down the road and it might be as late as 2024 — or never — that such a End of The World situation even happens.

But it definitely feels as though America is one Oklahoma City-style explosion in NYC or LA, or an assassination away from the whole country collapsing and people dying for their politics. I hope I’m wrong. I really do.

Trump & Potential Presidential Sedition


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump always wants to be number one in everything, and he’s one deranged — and transactional — tweet away from being the absolute worst president in American history. I say this because at least with James Buchanan, his screw up was a passive one. He simply felt he did not have the power to do anything to stop the birth of the CSA.

Meanwhile, Trump could very well incite his followers to actively work against the very government he leads. How’s that for both bad and surreal. And he could very well use any violence that he himself incites to invoke the Insurrection Act and simply refuse to leave office. Or, we do have about two weeks before the Electoral College votes, so it’s possible he might incite violence between now and then use his own violence as an excuse to stop the their vote, or whatever.

What’s I’m saying is — we’ve now entered one of the most unstable periods in American history since 1860. And, as always, our fate rests in the hands of Donald Trump. If he snaps he could a minimum bring down the First Republic and a maximum end civilization as we know it.

Good times!

My Hot Take On Kyle Rittenhouse


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Where to begin on this one. It definitely seems as though if you want something that encapsulates what’s going on in American politics right now, you need look no further than Kyle Rittenhouse murdering people in cold blood and the American Right rallying to his support.

There’s no defense, none what so ever, for what Rittenhouse did, and, yet, here we are with people spotting him his $2 million bail so he can get endorsements from a gun manufacturer. It’s completely bonkers. The only thing I guess you might use to explain this otherwise surreal behavior is Rittenhouse is now something of a John Brown figure.

He did what a bunch of grown men think they wanted to do, and so they bought into his martyrdom and here we are. I’ve come to believe that barring something pretty spectacular, that there isn’t going to be a civil war. Any violence is going to come from Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act — probably because of mass protests from him staging A Very American Coup.

But, otherwise, meh. Just don’t see it.

Or, put another way, it’s possible the far Right is going to start murdering people, the government will support it and then, and only then, will there be something marketed as a “civil war.”

For the time being, however, we’re heading towards something of a stalemate, not civil war. A lot of protests, maybe, and the occasional bonkers Right wing person like Rittenhouse killing innocent people, but otherwise, not a lot is going to happen.

I’m willing to revise that assessment as a events warrant.

Why Trump Will Dox Electors On Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m wrong all the time. But here’s something to think about.

  1. Trump is deranged.
    Trump is an autocrat — if a very bad one — and as it grows more obvious that he will be indicted by NYS after leaving office, he’s going to do anything necessary to “not lose.”
  2. It will be value free.
    By the time we get around to impeaching Trump for doing this, we’ll have moved on to the next thing. The intimidated Electors were “legal” votes and fuck you, lib.
  3. He’ll be president, fuck you lib.
    What are you going to do if Trump intimidates Electors to vote for him, impeach and convict him? This is never going to work, especially if Democrats can’t take the Senate. So, in that sense, at a minimum, Interior Minster Barr will believe Trump can get away with a coup. Trump will dox Electors on Twitter, the Proud Boys scare the hell out of them — they vote for Trump. The End. Coup successful. (Though, of course, this would likely cause a civil war / revolution, but #MoscowMitch doesn’t think in those terms. It’s all about power for power’s sake and owning the libs.)

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Gambit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is truly the dumbest timeline. All signs point to some sort of extra-political move on Trump’s part, and, yet, at the same time for the moment there seems to be an element of throw everything possible at the wall and see what sticks. In other words, Trump refuses to give up, no matter what. To the point that he’s willing to stumble into a coup for no other reason than he simply can’t process actually losing the presidency.

So, it’s possible that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy evidence of criminal activity on his part AND setting up an extra-political move AND preparing for his post-presidency all at the same time.

Remember, we have about a month until the certification of votes and the Electors vote. That gives Bill Barr more than enough time to pull something out of his butt so neither one of those events happen without them being corrupted and attacked.

This could happen to the extent that Trump sort of accidently-on-purpose stages a coup and then when there’s a massive backlash in the streets to this, he uses to Insurrection Act…all without himself knowing what the endgame is. He could do it on strictly a tactical basis –there would be no grand, overarching strategy over than just not leaving office. He could very well drag the whole Republican Party in to a coup without really having any point to it other than he doesn’t want his feelings hurt.

In a sense, 240 years of American liberal democracy is at risk because Trump is a snowflake who doesn’t want his fee-fees hurt. Let that sink in for a moment.

Or, put another way, we’re probably going to have a Vote Certification Crisis and an Elector Intimidation Crisis over and above any ratfucking Barr does with the Justice Department. The more difficult it is for Trump to stay in power, the more ham handed and radical he will become and the Republican Party won’t say a word.

Trump, in desperation, could dox all the Electors on Twitter and “joke” that they need to be reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment by MAGA. It’s a value free thing for him to do. Either he just scares the shit out of everyone or he wins and in both cases — fuck you lib.

And remember, I haven’t even mentioned the various Reichstag Fire scenarios ranging from Wag The Dog wars with the DPRK or Iran or one of his own followers blowing up 30 Rock in NYC in an effort to impress The Dear Leader with his devotion to the cause. Any of those type of unexpected events would be enough for Trump to take “told control,” thinking by the time everything was sorted out he would be in his second term.

I still contend that our absolute best case scenario is somehow we get past the Vote Certification Crisis and the Elector Intimidation Crisis and Trump STILL hasn’t “not lost” and he freaks out, pardons himself and flies AF1 to either Pyongyang or Moscow and spends all his time banging whores and rambling about all the aliens at Area 51.

So, it’s at least possible that either there is a coup, it works because of the Insurrection Act but once they actually try to consolidate power it all falls apart because they’re a bunch of incompetent morons who want all the power but none of the responsibility. They destroy every possible thing in hopes of staying in power forever, but they don’t have the wherewithal to do it and so on January 20th, Biden is sworn in and they just wonder around in a daze.

That’s the absolute best case scenario.

More likely there really is going to be a coup.

It Appears Possible Some Sort of Coup Is About To Occur


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are dark things afoot. And it’s still very possible that I’m completely misunderstanding the exact nature of some of the events of the last 24 hours. But there’s a non-zero chance that I have it just about right — some sort of coup is being plotted by Republicans.

My current theory is they’re going to attack certification of the votes. Through media narrative management, they want Republicans in crucial states to do a form of “jury nullification.” They just won’t certify the vote because fuck you, lib. The point of this would be to throw it to SCOTUS in some manner where they know they will win — Trump doesn’t lose.

Now, remember, while Republicans really don’t give a fuck what you think, this would not happen in a political vacuum. The moment they allowed the media to call the election, they made their job far more difficult — but not impossible. But the likelihood that the average person who doesn’t really think about politics might sit up and take notice of this coup is far more likely with the election called.

Or put another way, Barr thinks the difference between his victory with the Mueller Report and stealing the election is simply a matter of degree. That, at least, may be his thinking going into this. He has SCOTUS and he has the entire Republican Party. Having those two institutions going into a coup such as this puts him on safe enough ground that he will feel comfortable striking.

And, really, if there is any reaction to this coup, it’s the perfect excuse for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act. That would give him the legal ability to give the military orders that might otherwise be illegal.

All of that is just one of a variety of different possible coup scenarios. We also have the possibility that if they fail at certification, they directly attack the Electors on a personal level.

I have said for some time now that every step they fail to successfully attack or corrupt will lead TrumpBarr to grow more radical. Remember, TrumpBarr has the total support of just under 50% of the population. The same logic that allowed them to rush the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett is the same logic that will cause them to stage such a coup (or something like it.)

All I know is things could get violent. Really violent. We could have dueling presidents with equal claim to the right to tell the military what to do. There may be a secession crisis. Blue States, out of desperation may call up their own militias for the specific purpose of defending themselves from the U.S. Military. Or, the U.S. Military itself could, in fact, implode so they won’t even be able to make a decision.

What’s more, the U.S. Military is the backbone of the post World War 2 liberal order. If it buckles, then you could see a number of regional wars grow hot in something that might be marketed as World War 3.

I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. But all of this is something to think about. There’s no obvious endgame. This wouldn’t be a video game. Real people with real lives would die. And you thought COVID19 was bad, just wait until there’s absolutely no food at the grocery store because you live in a Blue State (or Red State) and you’re being blockaded.

Again, I hope I’m wrong. Trump is really incompetent, but he definitely seems to be waking up from the shock of losing the election. And, as we know, autocrats never lose.

It’s Comical How Badly House Trump Screwed Up By Not Striking Before The Election Was Called


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trumplandia, we have a problem. While we are now entering the most dangerous political crisis in American history since the fall of 1860, there is something of note we have to talk about: how badly House Trump screwed up by not striking before the election was called.

I have been ranting about how “autocrats never lose” and this is still the case. And it’s still the case that Trump is an autocrat and, by definition, will “not lose.”

And, yet, now that the election has been called there will be severe consequences for that “not losing.” Trump is going to try to use the bully pulpit of the presidency to do exactly what he could have done before the election was called — frame the post-election battle in a way that the average person won’t mind if he mysteriously “doesn’t lose” like all autocrats.

Now that the election has been called, the average person who doesn’t really pay that much attention to politics is going to be shocked when Trump stages a coup — whatever it may ultimately look like — to stay in power. It’s just not as easy for Maggie Haberman to explain Trump’s coup in hushed tones as a stroke of political genius after the election has been called.

But once the shock of political defeat wears off, Trump is probably going to come roaring back and attempt to use all his usual Stormy Daniels tricks to reframe the debate. Rudy will yell on CNN for an hour on a regular basis. The Right Wing bullshit echo chamber will attempt to bend the mainstream media to their will. You, know, the usual media narrative management that has been so successful for House Trump for five years.

And, yet, now that the political act of the election being called by the media has happened, if they try extra-political methods to stay in power — which they will — there’s going to be a civil war / revolution. But as can be seen in how Republicans handled the RBG SCOTUS opening — they really don’t give a fuck. They are so completely blinded by their MAGA ideology that they are oblivious to how they’re going to destroy the United States — or at least the First Republic — if they “catch the car” of keeping Trump in power.

The country is just too polarized right down the middle 50/50 for them to be able to pull it off now without a lot — A LOT — of people dying tragic, needless deaths. But, sadly, the more difficult it is for them to stage a coup, the more radical they will become. They’re going to grow so hysterical that that, in itself, may be what pushes us into a second civil war / second revolution.

MAGA is such a bunch of easily triggered snowflake crybabies that when the shoe is on the other foot, they’re going to what to blow shit up rather than face the cold, hard, fact that the dear leader is going to have to leave office. Given that Trump is probably going to grow more insane and hysterical himself as well, no good will come of any of this.

Our best case scenario right now is Trump attacks and corrupts every single step between now and January 20th and STILL can’t stay in office. Then he totally flips the fuck out and aggressively salts the earth on his way out, pardening dozens — if not hundreds — of his cronies. He fires everyone he hates — even if he can’t legally do so — and gets FBI director Rudy to frogwalk Biden in an attempt to protect his own sorry ass.

If all else fails, he pardons himself and flies AF1 to Pyongyang where he spends the rest of his life snorting coke off hookers’ assholes and telling Kim Jung Un all our secrets.

That’s our best case scenario.

Worse case scenario is Trump and MAGA single-handed force the issue and everyone has to take sides — even if they don’t want to. Then the United States’ First Republic collapses and we spend a few years killing each other.

There is no narrative. There is no value. We will imbue this particular avoidable tragedy with those elements after the fact in a desperate attempt to make ourselves feel better.

I Have Every Reason To Believe Trump Is Going To Destroy The United States Via A Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s some serious silence going on. Republicans aren’t acting like they accept that Trump lost. And the infrastructure exists for TrumpBarr to stage an attempted court coup. All that has to happen is just one of their bullshit lawsuits go to SCOTUS and successfully narrow or redefine what a “legal ballot” is and, well, that’s it — a coup happens and then a civil war or revolution.

As an aside, it’s darkly humorous how many people from Red States — especially Southern Red States — show up in my Webstats whenever I rant about the possibility of the United States descending into civil war. It’s pretty obvious that a lot of Red State people are actually looking forward to a civil war. Why this would be the case is beyond me. As I have repeatedly ranted about — Blue States (once they get their act together) are in a far better military position than Red States.

But anyway, the point is — we are now potentially living through a 2020 version of what happened immediately after Lincoln won the 1860 election. Southern (Red) States are in shock. They never expected Biden — or Lincoln — to win and now they’re weighing their options.

Republicans are so blinded by ideology and negative polarization that they are barreling towards “catching the car” in the courts with total disregard to what happens if they are successful. Now that the election has been called, they’ve lost an enormous political advantage. They blew it. If they had struck before the election was called, then they probably would have had a 50-50 shot of “not losing” the election.

But now, if they strike and win in the courts, things are going to get very violent, very quickly. So violent that Trump will be looked back upon as the man personally responsible for the destruction of the American First Republic. The country will implode into civil war and or revolution and there will be no going back. And, in fact, there’s a chance that when all is said and done there will be two nations — Trumplandia and the rump United States.

It’s going to be horrific if it any of this happens. I’m notorious for being wrong of late, but Trump is a deranged moronic fascist autocrat with the entire Republican Party willing to back him up no matter what. They just don’t care. They want as much power as they can possibly obtain and if that means destroying any semblance of democracy in America, then cry more lib.

Really, the reason why I’m growing so nervous is the silence of the Republican Party. This is not normal. A series of things have to happen before Biden is sworn in, so if it’s not attacking and corrupting the certification of votes in state legislatures, then it will be Trump doxing the human Electors who will actually vote for he or Biden.

He will “joke” that they need to “respect the 2nd Amendment” and before you know it, mobs of MAGA fucktards show up at their homes and threaten to kill their family if they don’t change their vote and vote for Trump.

I’m not kidding. This may very well happen.

Autocrats never lose, as they say. I will suggest, however, that when the history of the Second American Republic is written, the fact that we finally called the election may be of far more historical significance than we realize right now.