Tag: Putin

A Brief Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Putin Potentially Using Tactical Nukes On Ukraine

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue when assessing the likelihood of Putin using tactical nukes on Ukraine as the Russian front line collapses is, of course — is he a rational actor? Is he nuts?

The reason is, if you do a strict cost-benefit analysis of doing something so crazy, it just doesn’t make any sense. While, yes, on paper, nuking a few Ukrainian cities would help Russia stop an epic loss of face, the reaction to doing such a thing would be so incredible as to moot the whole point of using nukes in the first place.

The Ukrainians, once they overcame the shock of it all, would be enraged and out for blood. And it’s not like the Russians could take advantage of having used nukes. They would have to do a massive general mobilization to follow up on the use of tactical nukes.

All of this would happen in the context of everyone being very, very mad at Putin for doing such a thing. The risk of civil war or revolution in Russia would increase dramatically.

But I seriously doubt we have to worry about any such thing. Even thought Putin was bonkers to invade Ukraine in the first place, I believe he’s still enough of a rational actor that it’s very unlikely that he would nuke Ukraine.

Of Putin, May 9th & Novorossiya


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If my Webstats are any indication, the Powers that Be believe something is up with the concept of Novorossiya. I monitor my Webstats like a hawk and, for some reason, a few people from New York City are interested in my speculation about Novorossiya.

May 9th, the big military holiday in Russia, is coming up fast and it would make a lot of sense for Putin declare “victory” in Ukraine by saying Novorossiya has been established and fuck you.

Or something like that.

Or, he might declare formal war on Ukraine by saying Novorossiya is going to be officially established that way.

The point is — something’s up.

The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War’s Impending WW1 Endgame — We Have To Prepare For The Violent Collapse Of Putin’s Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History is a fickle mistress. Nowhere is this more obvious that than Russia. I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere — you probably shouldn’t listen to me — but I do have a hot take on Russia’s future.

It seems to me that Russia’s military in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. If that happens, then there could be a significant cascading series of events that ultimately leads to Putin’s downfall.

Given Russia’s size and the number of nukes it has, this would throw the entire world order for a loop. There could be loose nukes. Limited nuclear exchanges, you name it. But there would also be a lot of opportunity. Russia has huge unlocked potential and if there was some macro creative destruction in Russia, there is a chance that the nation could transform itself form economic backwater to economic powerhouse within a generation.

I say this in the context of global climate change. But the process of this propose transformation would be very bloody and very painful for millions –if not billions — of people.

So, I don’t know. But it would be very ironic if there was a Second Russian Revolution just as the United States had a Second Civil War and we switch sides politically and economically. Russia liberating itself just as America turns into a theocratic, autocratic state would be rather surreal and ironic.

But it’s very much a real possibility, given macro trends in both nations as we lurch towards 2024 – 2025.

Dec 7th — The Day Putin Could Be A Real Dick


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know anything. I’m a nobody. But it seems at least possible that President Biden’s phone call with Putin tomorrow, Dec. 7th, is something of a trap.

Here’s how it would go: the two men have a phone call and it ends. Almost immediately, things begin to change dramatically on the ground in Ukraine. The Russians are in a hurry to attack for some reason.

Joe Rogan would be surprised.

They attack so it’s still Dec. 7th USA time and everyone blames Biden for screwing up the phone call on Dec. 7th, the anniversary of Pearl Harbor.

But that is just one possibility. More likely, the whole thing will be a lulz and we can move on to welcoming 2022.

Belarus, Russia & The Law Of Unintended Consequences



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any student of history will tell you that history is fickle. It does not move in a straight line. In fact, the relative peace the world has seen since the end of WW2 is something of an anomaly in the grand scheme of things. Time and again, the law of untended consequences has turned around and bitten people in the ass in some pretty astonishing ways.

So, here we are with Belarus and Russia.

There’s a reason why Putin has –as of yet — not swooped in and gobbled the country up. From his point of view, a political union is his best bet, if it ever came to that. His economy is, relative to countries like China and the United States extremely small. About the size of Portugal’s, I think.

And, yet, there are some pretty important reasons why Putin might say screw it and invade Belarus anyway. One is he probably doesn’t want a free country the size of Belarus on his border. Add to that the current protests there are something of a gimme and it would make a lot of sense for him to invade, or “be invited into” Belarus pretty soon — maybe even before the end of August.

But that would open up a huge can of worms. In the modern age, if he simply swooped into Belarus overnight, social media in the West would be awash with footage of it and that would likely cause a lot of neighboring countries in Europe to give any rebels that might exist the arms necessary to put up a pretty good fight, which would drain the already weak Russian economy.

If Russia’s economy began to falter because of Putin felt he had to throw more and more troops into Belarus to maintain control, then a whole series of unexpected and unintended things might cascade from it. From what I can tell, Putin is a pretty sly, pretty cautious guy, so for him to actually be aggressive enough invade Belarus, there would have to be some metrics that I don’t know about for him to risk it.

August isn’t over yet, so it could still happen. But I’d have to start hearing about major Russian “training exercises” on its border with Belarus before I would grow to concerned.

Russia’s Possible Coming Invasion of Belarus



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, I’m no expert on any of this, but I can make some general, educated observations about what’s going on in Belarus.

For a number of years now, Putin has had his eyes on Belarus. The difference between Belarus and Ukraine is the former is significantly smaller and doesn’t really have the centuries-long animosity towards Russia that the latter has. So, it wouldn’t be existential for Putin to swoop in and gobble Belarus up.

The recent protests in Belarus give Putin exactly the cover he would need to invade the small country. He would say he was “invited in” because of the instability and, well, that would be that. He would never leave.

There might be significant opposition to such a land grab by the people of Belarus, but nothing a big as what Putin would face if he tried to do something similar with Ukraine.

Since it is August, the shittiest month of the year, it would make a lot of sense for Putin to swoop in and eat Belarus. And, really, the issue for me is there haven’t been any reports of any major troop movements by the Russian military (at least as far as I know.) Putin continues to move tanks around the area, but nothing — not even a “drill” — that might indicate any large-scale invasion of Belarus is afoot.

That could change very quickly, however if things continue to deteriorate in Belarus and it appear as if democratic forces might actually win.

So, it would seem we have something of a waiting game ahead of us. It continues to be curious that Putin hasn’t done anything major with Ukraine give the complete and total pass the Trump Administration would give him if he did so.

#Belarus, #Russia & The Legacy Of 1989



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m simply a casual observer of these things and no expert. Just have a reasonably educated opinion on the situation developing in Belarus.

On one hand, Belarus is a small country that should a tipping point come — like, say, a fixed election — would be a prime candidate for a successful revolution like what we saw all across Eastern Europe in 1989. In fact, Belarus is something of an anomaly in that it never even pretended to embrace liberal democracy after the fall of Communism there.

But there’s also a huge but you have to include whenever you discuss the fate of Belarus — but Putin’s Russia.

If events in Belarus grow too unstable, it is very reasonable to assume that Russia will strike rather quickly. They would say they were “invited in” then, well, never leave. Putin would do what he’s wanted to do for 25 years — annex Belarus outright.

Given that the United States is pretty much under Putin’s thumb in the guise of our traitor “president” Donald Trump, if ever Putin was going to absorb Belarus, now would be the time to do it. The United States won’t say a word.

There is a little bit of a risk, however, that if things grow too unstable in Belarus that the whole powder-keg in neighboring Ukraine might blow up in a way that Putin couldn’t control and he might grow way too tempted to sow the seeds of his own destruction by starting a general war in eastern Ukraine.

But that’s kind of stretching it at this point.

And maybe nothing will come of the protests in Minks. It’s going to be a long night, no matter what.

What Is Putin Thinking? #Ukraine #Belarus


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Putin’s Russia is in real terms, the election of Trump gives us a real sense of their power as opposed to what they would like us to think they can do. Electing Trump was the softest, cheapest form of geopolitical ratfucking possible. It was cheap and nearly value free.

Meanwhile, two major issues on Russia’s border remain unsolved, at least to date. While Russia would love to gobble up most of Ukraine and all of Belarus, as of right now, they’ve just been all talk outside of moving troops around now and then. But current reports of growing protests in Belarus just might be something Putin can use as a springboard to taking the country.

Belarus is small and poor and Russia could probably actually gobble up if the timing us right. Not that it wouldn’t be pretty bloody, but Russia could swoop in as “liberators” things get too bad in Belarus and then, well, never leave.

One sign, at least to me, that Putin is quite confident that Trump is going to successfully steal the election is there’s not been a major land grab of eastern Ukraine by the Russians. Putin feels confident that ultimately Trump will leave NATO in his second term and, as such, Russia will be in a much better position to eat as much of Ukraine as it likes.

Russia is a unique geopolitical player because geographically it’s huge and it has a shit ton of nuclear weapons, but on the ground, it’s economy is so small that Putin knows he would just be setting himself up for his own downfall if he simply attacked Ukraine in a general war. Hence, Putin simply lurks on the border and waits for just the right moment to strike.

As such, it’s far more possible Belarus might be gobble up sooner rather than later than Ukraine. If that should change, should Russia rather abruptly move on Ukraine late this year, then something pretty fucking dramatic would have had happened to Trump’s chances of stealing the election.

I don’t see that happening, however.

Putin’s Ukraine Strategy Is A Blackbox, & Yet A Trump-Influenced Endgame May Exist

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m not an expert on any of this, but I’m pretty good at strategic thinking. I have the Ukraine — Russia situation on the brain, so here I am writing yet again about it despite my lack of anything to base my opinion on beyond the chatter of my Twitter feed. But having said all that, let’s take a hard look at where things stand.

Putin’s Ukraine strategy is a blackbox for a number of reasons, chief amongst them being, we really don’t know what his endgame would be should he decide on a general war against Ukraine. He knows on a basic level that he simply doesn’t have the resources to take and keep a big chunk of Ukraine long-term. So, really, unless there’s something going on we don’t know about, he’s probably just going to continue to fake us out on the topic. He’s probably going to continue to screw with the Ukraine government’s mind with no intention of actually doing anything big.

And, yet, there’s one specific datapoint that sticks out: Donald J. Trump.

If Putin had any dream of actually gobbling up a big chunk of Ukraine, he must know that it’s pretty much now or never. It’s like Trump is going to do anything if Putin attacks Ukraine in a big way and, what’s more, Putin could actually help Trump in a big way should he attack Ukraine. Think about it, first and foremost, the first month of any such war would suck out all the air of any other news story and it would be the perfect cover for Trump to fire Bob Mueller and pardon everyone he needs to pardon. Meanwhile, Trump simply doesn’t address what’s going on in Ukraine and NATO is left to send support to the now rump state of Ukraine.

But that still doesn’t give us any sense of the endgame. That just gives us the beginning of the story. But what would be the end? What would be the point, from Putin’s point of views in starting a general war with Ukraine. I honestly don’t know. So, maybe he doesn’t start a general war, but simply attacks Kiev, overthrows the government and backs off? He had his chance to do that a few years ago…and he didn’t.

So, I don’t know. Honestly, the only datapoint that points to any conflict at this point is Trump. Trump being a Russian toady might be the historical fact that leads to a war, even though I struggle to figure out what the endgame would be.

The Conditions Exist For A General War Between Russia And Ukraine

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now, let me be clear — the conditions for a general war between Russia and Ukraine have existed for years. It’s just that in the last few days things have grown significantly worse, so much so that pretty much it’s just up to Putin at this point if anything happens. Let me explain.

1. Putin is corning Ukraine
It appears as though Putin is putting the squeeze on the Ukrainians in such a way that they might feel the only course of action they have is to attack the Russians in a big way, which would, of course, give Russia the cover it needs to start a general war with Ukraine. By “general war,” I mean one in which the endgame is to take Kiev and establish a rump state in the portion of Ukraine that could stretch from Odessa in the west all the way around Crimea then all the way around some more to Kiev.

2. Trump is historically weak
Trump is a historically weak president on a number of fronts, most especially Russia. Does anyone really expect Trump to do anything, anything at all if Putin starts a major war against Ukraine? There will be a major reaction by the Pols and the rest of NATO when it comes to sending arms and advisers to what’s left of Free Ukraine, but the United States under Trump is unlikely to say anything at all.

3. Trump’s in trouble.
It seems pretty clear to me that given the two things stated above, that Putin might try to help Trump by starting a major war against Ukraine, one big enough that it would distract people in the States to such an extent that Trump would feel comfortable firing Bob Mueller, pardoning half a dozen people and then hunker down for the House to officially flip in January.

Now, there are some major reasons why Putin wouldn’t do anything at all.

The biggest reason off the top of my head is while Putin’s forces could take Kiev in “two weeks,” it’s highly unlikely that they could keep it long term. It’s very possible that Putin has long ago done the geopolitical calculation in his head and he just doesn’t see a general war against Ukraine as worth it, ever. Even with a historically friendly Trump Administration in office, it just doesn’t make any sense for Putin to risk the existential threat associated with a war with Ukraine that he knows long-term could very well cause his downfall.

So, there’s a better than even chance that this is all nothing. This is just the usual geopolitical scuffling that goes on between the Ukrainians and the Russians and it’s all a big false alarm. We’re likely to know one way or another in a few days.