At the moment, ding-dong Trump AGAIN holds the entire fate of the United States in his teeny-tiny hands. I say this because we face a far different future if someone else is the Republican nominee in 2024 than we do if it’s him. If its DeSantis or Cotton or Hawley or Pompeo, then we’re probably going to slip peacefully into some form of autocracy.
Good German Republicans will call people like me hysterical as we slowly — then not so slowly — begin to lose some rights that we’ve assumed we’d always have. Everything will come to a head when the argument of the day is if we’re going to have a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention or not. It will be pitched to traditional American conservatives as the “only way” to pass a balanced budget amendment.
Then, lulz, fuck you, lib, it goes rouge and I definitely end up dead at the hands of a ICE agent.
But if Trump runs again, he is soooooo fucking stupid and incompetent that he could single handedly force the United States into a civil war. And it’s going to be Blue States who leave the Union. Remember, a lot — and I mean A LOT — of things would have to go wrong for us to get to that point.
The U.S. Military would have to sit back and let Blue States hold Secession Conventions. But, maybe they will.
Anyway, if it is Blue States who leave the Union (or try) and California stays with the Blue State Union then we’re probably going to bomb ourselves into oblivion using WMD.
I keep talking about this hysterical “doom shit” because Republicans are radicalized and so anti-democratic at this point that what else is going to happen? Why would anyone thing anything else is going to happen?
It seems as though the people who think I peddle political disaster porn either think the law is going to save us, or they tacitly agree with the coming autocracy we may face.
All I know, something’s gotta give. At some point the modern day Slave Power of MAGA either gets its way and establishes an white Christian ethno state, or there’s a civil war and (hopefully) its gaping wound gets cauterized.
Something’s gotta give. The country is in a crisis. This crisis may fade in the coming days, or it may come to a head. The crisis was brought upon by Biden’s new COVID19 policies. The fit perfectly into the MAGA New Right’s narrative that “liberals won’t leave us alone” and, as such, they’re being forced to radicalize and to glorify potential political violence.
This leads us to, “So, what are they going to do about it?”
I don’t want to be right on this, but it’s easy to imagine if there was some sort of severe, organized political violence on the part of the MAGA New Right, the motive for it would be this — incite a civil war.
Whatever happened, they would hope that by blowing shit up in a coordinated way around the country –or, knocking important political figures off — that doing so would be enough to start some sort of MAGA New Right revolution. This is, of course, very similar to the motives of the Tate–LaBianca murders. Manson told his followers that the murders –that they wanted to pin a group of mysterious African Americans, as I understand it — would so outrage the white populace that a race war would be a direct result.
Or something like that.
Anyway, from what I can tell on Twitter, all the conditions are there for there to be some sort of shocking domestic terrorist attack in the near term. I could even see a false flag operation take place, whereby MAGA New Right cocksuckers try to pin whatever they do on Antifa in hopes that THAT will so shock the MAGA New Right that they get their civil war or revolution that way.
But we’re dealing with idiots, so I don’t know if they have it within them to be so diabolical.
This is the point where I say I’m always wrong and I’m being hysterical and don’t listen to me. Trump isn’t going to run again, there’s no risk of civil war and we have more to worry about from woke companies than any of the so-called would-be autocrats that I keep ranting about.
There have been a few times in recent years when I felt a vague unease about what what was going on in the country. The most recent instance of this was Trump’s post-election shenanigans in late 2020 and early 2021. It just did not seem possible that things could keep going the way they were — in other words, something would have to happen.
I feel the same way now.
The reason why I feel this way is Biden has put unexpected additional pressure on our political system with his new COVID19 policies. And I have long said that the country is a lot less stable we realize. And if there was any additional pressure put on the system, it might come crashing down.
And, yet, what exactly might happen?
While I struggle to pinpoint any specific thing, in general terms, I’m worried about some sort of co-ordinated domestic terrorist event on a scale of 9/11. Something that would happen out of the blue that would shock us to the level that 9/11 did.
But, if history has proven one thing, there’s a reason why to date most of our major domestic terror attacks have been of the “Lone Wolf” variety (with the notable exception of January 6th) — usually it’s extremely difficult for a group of domestic terrorists to organize. They usually get infiltrated by FBI agents and the whole the is a bust (thankfully.)
And yet, Biden’s actions have ratcheted up the swirling turbulence in our political system to the extent that something could happen suddenly, abruptly, and violently on an unprecedented scale.
I just don’t know in what form it would take. I can think of some pretty dark scenarios — usually involving MAGA New Right people trying to incite a civil war by attempting to a coup-like-event — but I just can’t think of any particular one that is the most likely to happen.
And, yet, maybe I have it all wrong. Maybe we still have until either January 2023 or January 2025 to have to think about such things.
Long Answer If you’re searching for some sort of easy answer as to if the Red States would win a theoretical Second American Civil War, I just don’t have it for you. You probably are out at the cabin, drinking Miller Lite with the guys and someone gets a little too worked up about Vaccine Passports or Cancel Culture or whatever the fuck it is that cocksucker MAGA New Right idiots are upset about at the moment.
You pull up your phone and ask Google, “Will Red States win the civil war?“
And so, here you are.
First and foremost, you’re going to have to make concrete your hazy, abstract thoughts about a “civil war” and give me some sort of war aims. Even more important, is the issue of why do Red States even need a civil war in the first place? What, specifically, would make Red State people think that they need to start killing their fellow Americans in an organized manner because of their political views?
As I tell my conservative relatives at every opportunity, all Red States have to do is be patient and they’ll get everything they ever wanted and then some. Blue State leadership — at the moment — is divided, tepid and weak-willed and, as such, Red States could very easily establish a MAGA New Right autocracy without firing a shot. It’s when you leave the realm of politics and start making things existential that Red States have a severe problem on their hands.
But, lulz, the MAGA New Right glorifies political violence and is itching for the opportunity to eliminate the “liberal problem,” so it’s something that is at the forefront of a lot of Red State people’s minds.
If you’re still eager for a Second American Civil War and want to know if Red States will win it, I need to know what your war aims would be. What’s the point of the civil war relative to you? With the First American Civil War, the war aims of the South were clear — independence in order to protect slavery. With any Second American Civil War, Red State war aims seem extremely abstract.
Red States so hate the way Blue State people think that they’re willing to risk everything for the opportunity to physically harm them en masse. But why? Why do that when you could simply be patient and have the country slide peacefully into autocracy. It appears that the glorification of political violence on the part of the MAGA New Right is nothing more than what you would expect as part of a Fourth Turning — it exists because it exists.
Back to war aims.
I’m having to do some political reverse engineering here, but here goes. The first problem that the MAGA New Right Red States face when gaming out a civil war is, at the core of their desire for a Second Civil War is a severe existential fear of the browning of America. So, after the initial political violence began, it would soon become clear that establishing some sort of white Christian ethno state would be the chief Red State war aim.
As such, Red State people, who to date have been getting everything they want via traditional politics will get a rude awaking — POC will freak the fuck out the moment the MAGA New Right makes it clear they want to “put them in their place.” Hence — a race war will begin. And part and parcel of that race war will be crimes against humanity on the part of Red State governments (collectively known as Trumplandia) who will begin to systematically kill POC in a frantic effort to maintain control.
So, right off the bat, Red States have a race war to deal with — they just don’t have a unified polity because of that.
Then, you have two other major issues: population and economics. If California stays in the Union at the onset of a Second American Civil War it, unto itself, would be enough to allow Blue States to dominate everything from the West Cost to Texas in the South to the Mississippi River in the center to Minnesota to the north.
Add to this, in general, the Blue States have far bigger economies and more dense populations geographically and things aren’t looking good for Red States.
But if you STILL want to have a Second American Civil War because you “just want to be left alone” then Red States have a few things going for them. First is, Blue States aren’t really taking seriously how deranged Red States are going into any Second American Civil War. So, it is possible that some sort of sucker punch could happen that would knock Blue States off their feet long enough for Red States to consolidate power — still a problem: race.
Additionally, it’s almost inevitable that WMD will be used by both sides, so you could sketch out a scenario whereby the MAGA New Right is simply so much more fanatical than the Blue States that when push comes to shove on the use of WMD, Red States win because they’re willing to vaporize more people.
The argument could also be made that if Trumplandia simply wants to leave the Union to form its own white Christian ethno state, then, yes, Red States would then probably come pretty close to achieving their war aim. There would be a massive migration of POC out of Trumplandia, but the MAGA New Right hates POC to begin with, so win-win, right?
And, remember, none of this clusterfuck would happen in a vacuum. The DPRK could lop nuke our way to scramble things. WW3 would probably break out during the second civil war, the list goes on.
So, no, Red States wouldn’t win the Second American Civil War, or if they did, they would severely regret the whole thing by the time they “won.”
If this was the pre-Trump Era, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be well on his way to being a run-of-the-mill Republican president. He might even be a tick or two better than idiot George W. Bush.
But this is the POST Trump presidency era, and, as such, things are fucking bonkers. Instead of just a run of the mill Republican president, DeSantis, if elected would be more like an American Augustus — the first autocrat of our new post-democracy America.
All the hysterical, dystopian things I’ve been ranting about would happen during his presidency instead of ding-dong Trump’s. DeSantis is young, competent and not only knows how to weld the levers of power, but also how to be Trump without Trump. And, as such, he’s extremely dangerous.
DeSantis could turn into an American Putin and simply never leave office. There is already a well-organized move afoot to get a Constitutional Convention called and given how its members would be selected — via state legislatures — it’s a gimmie that it would codify MAGA “blood and soil” concepts into the Constitution.
And that would be it.
What’s worse, DeSantis is actively killing his own electorate at the moment by denying science when it comes to COVID19 in an effort to curry favor with those sweet, sweet MAGA base votes. We’ve reached the point where MAGA New Right voters are so absolute in their need to “own the libs” because of their abstract fears over Cancel Culture and Critical Race Theory that they would LITERALLY RATHER DIE than see COVID19 for what it is — a lingering national health crisis.
There is one other potential obstacle to DeSantis getting his opportunity to be the founding autocrat of Trumplandia — a 300 lb tub of lard who thinks HE should be the founding autocrat of Trumplandia. Trump is so fucking deranged and unwilling to let go of either power or the spotlight that it’s very easy to imagine him politically shiving DeSantis so he can run again in 2024.
Now, logically, Trump would pick DeSantis as his new veep, paving the way for Trump to put DeSantis in the position of being his autocratic successor. But Trump is a craven idiot who thinks in such a short-term, so it could be we end up with Vice President Michael Flynn instead of Vice President Ron DeSantis.
Anyway, the point is — Trump is such a political history disrupter that he could bend the nature progression of our history simply because he’s self-serving dick head. Or not. Who knows what that guy.
I will note, however, that DeSantis is extremely fucking popular with conservatives in general. But even if everything breaks his way, there are going to be a dozen other would-be autocrats stalking him in an effort to get him to trip up.
And, lastly, don’t forget the real possibility of some sort of civil war should DeSantis win the presidency only via the skullduggery of a MAGA Congress.
The core group of people who surrounded Mad King Trump fling off so much bullshit at any one moment that it’s very difficult to figure out what the fuck they’re talking about sometimes. But, just recently, former Trump COS Mark Meadows make it sound like Trump was plotting some sort of return sooner rather than later.
I struggle to figure out what’s going on.
Either it’s all bullshit meant to make Trump feel better, or they’re actively planning to take advantage of the potential instability caused by Cyber Ninjas “proving” that Trump “won” Arizona. If it’s the latter, then they’re actively stetting the stage for a national version of January 6th.
Here’s how it would go down.
Sometime soon — in August, maybe? — Cyber Ninjas comes out with a preliminary report that says Trump won Arizona. Trump spooges his pants and won’t shut the fuck up about how this PROVES he won the 2020 election, even if it’s just one state. This sets of a cascading set of events where Red State legislatures across the country decide to hold “Decertification Conventions” meant to appease the MAGA base. Of course, soon enough, because of Trump screaming at them, these conventions turn into “Nullification Conventions” and, soon enough, once they realize that you can’t really nullify the results of a presidential election — Secessionist Conventions.
Then Trump really does do the ultimate ask the elected members of his violent personality cult — are you going to join my new Trumplandia government?
That is kind of the absolute, absolute worst case scenario.
More likely, all of this bullshit would be used to as part of a greater media narrative for the 2022 mid-terms. They might tell the MAGA base to vote so Trump the “real” president could become Speaker and, as such, be put into the line of secession to cause who knows mischief.
The point is — the moment Cyber Ninjas comes out with their preliminary report, all hell might break loose. Or not. Everything is very much up in the air at this point.
Pretty much anything might happen. The key issue is, could Trump unto himself, be catalyst enough to force a secession crisis if he isn’t “re-instated.”
Our Orange Ding-Dong fascist former president currently inhabits a strange political space. To the average member of the electorate, he’s a washed up former POTUS. The average person is now busy thinking about what they were thinking about before — their kids growing up, etc.
Then there is the MAGA New Right base.
For them, the coup attempt of January 6th is still on going. An entire Lost Cause mythos is being developed around the “stab the back” they experienced with SCOTUS wouldn’t throw the election to Trump. For this small, but passionate subset of the electorate, Trump is either shadow Speaker or shadow POTUS, depending on their talking point of the moment. They are willing to defy any form of logic for the greater good of making it clear that they think “#TrumpWon.”
So, where does that leave us?
Well, a lot depends on how things break politically.
It could be that Cyber Ninjas will do their job and “prove” that Trump “won” Arizona. Either that, in itself, causes a secession crisis this year or it simply causes a longer-term series of events that causes the Right to demand Trump be named Speaker when Republicans inevitably win control of the House. Or the same thing essentially happens, only in January 2025 when a MAGA Congress refuses to certify any election result that doesn’t have Trump on top.
There is, of course, the possibility that Trumpist candidates belly flop in 2022. Then, we get to see the dozen or so would-be autocrats who are scheming around Trump fully embrace the New Right movement and we get either, again, autocracy or civil war.
I guess the point is — either Trump is the one who causes our existential choice of civil war or autocracy, or some other would be autocrat does it.
One of the most aggravating things about Twitter these days is how fucking oblivious Blue Check Liberals are to how dire things are politically in the United States.
They still, to this day, spend way too much energy trying to parse out the non-existent logic of MAGA. Instead of saying, “Oh my God, the United States may buckle soon because of the rise of fascism,” they chuckle and giggle at this or that ostensibly stupid thing that a MAGA “thought leader” has tweeted.
All of this is, of course, a complete waste of time. Instead of writing snarky tweets about how bonkers MAGA is, they need to start coming up with ways for the average person to prepare for either autocracy or civil war. It would make me feel a lot better if there was a practical guide to surviving America’s coming political apocalypse that I could read.
As it stands, all I got is, I dunno…get a passport? Be sure to live in a part of the country that fits your politics? Otherwise, I got nothing. Because it’s clear to me that we’ve zoomed past the point of no return: by 2025, the United States is either going to be an autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war. No other options.
Or, if you press me, I will tell you I can’t predict the future and something REALLY BIG would have to divert us from that particular existential choice. Even then, it might just punt the problem down the road. It would have to be HUGE, like First Contact or something, for us to avoid our existential fate altogether.
What I want is a reboot of how we frame MAGA. Instead of seeing it as something to laugh at, we need to see it as the existential threat that it is. Those fuckers are out for blood as the January 6th insurrection proves. And, what’s worse, they’re creating this entire Lost Cause mythology around the event for their echo chamber to pivot to whenever they talk to people like me.
What’s worse, the echo chambers of the center-Left and center-Right no longer overlap at all. It used to be, in, say, 2016 that you might find yourself in a heated discussion on Twitter with some MAGA cocksucker. Now, I rant all I want to on Twitter and very, very rarely hear a peep from a MAGA person. This is not good because apparently both sides have completely give up trying to debate people who disagree with them. And if they do, they do it exclusively in the context of trolling.
We’re just not taking MAGA’s intentions seriously enough. Instead of ridiculing them, or foolishly trying to change their minds, we need to gird our loins for the very serious transformation in the United States that MAGA is going to force — be it autocracy or civil war.
It’s clear to me that the United States continues its inevitable drift towards a MAGA themed autocracy. It was only because of a very specific set of historical circumstances that Trump did not win a second term. So, as I keep saying, we’re an autocracy without an autocrat.
The key thing to consider about all of this is the very Powers That Be enablers who should have known better during four years of Trump are doing exactly the same goddamn thing they did then. Rather than showing any backbone whatsoever, they fully embrace the MAGA movement which is pretty brazen fascism.
And it’s happening right out in the open. There’s virtually no push back and what pushback that exits is usually moot, or doesn’t really do anything or is simply gesture politics that doesn’t address the issue at hand: MAGA is fascism and is going to turn the United States into a fascist state the moment it can. Or, if you really want to get all nitty-gritty about it — Trump has done his job. He’s paved the way for someone younger and more focused to purge the media and weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure.
Trump, himself, is simply too lazy, stupid and weak-willed to knock the heads necessary to make transition the United States into cold blooded fascism. But about a dozen other people are more than willing to do what he can’t — or won’t — do.
Now there is a huge but in this dark, dystopian talk — an even darker, more dystopian scenario: a civil war.
So, everything is exactly the same as I described but for one thing — when we actually begin to transition into autocracy, Trump (or whomever) lets the situation get out of hand and states start to leave the Union. This would happen in the vaguely 2024-2025 timeframe.
I just don’t see anything stopping this existential choice of autocracy or civil war. But I’m often wrong and I’m apparently supposed to “calm down” because neither one of these options is going to happen. We’ll see, I guess.
It used to be that there were all these predictions about how the Mayan calendar predicted the End Of The World in 2012 for some reason. Well, that obviously didn’t happen, but something did happen – 2012 was the year that white people in America began to reach a tipping point with their abstract fears about the changing nature of the country.
So, let’s think about what, exactly, happened in 2012 that caused the political hellscape that we currently enjoy. The most obvious thing is, duh, Obama won a second term. And I think the reason why there was a cascading effect from that event was a lot of Republicans thought Obama was some sort of political fluke caused by the perfect timing of the Great Recession right before the 2008 election.
When it became clear that Obama was actually the first wave of what everyone knew was coming — the advent of America being a minority majority nation, a lot of white people freaked the fuck out. It was the 2012 election that was the last election where Republicans were willing to work within the democratic norms that we all have come to enjoy for the last 240 odd years.
Something about what happened in Obama’s second term facilitated the rise of Trump, MAGA and the Republican Party becoming fascist. It was the high speed social transformation of Obama’s second term that really caused the Republican Party to pretty much be accurately represented by Trump.
If I was, like, smart and stuff, I would be able to give you a itemized deep dive of the specific events that caused conservative white people to freak out and fall into the arms of ding-dong Trump. But, I’m not that smart — and, as such, will never write for VOX, natch.
But it is curious. I think what may have happened is at some point between 2012 and 2016 Republicans realized they had lost the culture wars and, as such, they had to strike back with someone who was a “fighter.” After that happened, the rest took care of itself. Trump was a deranged lunatic, but the Establishment eventually realized he was not only hugely popular with the base, but he could win the 2016 election. So they lulzed everything for young hack MAGA judges and a plutocrat tax cut.
I love alternative history, so I often struggle to think up a way whereby we could have avoided the rise of MAGA and Trump. All I can think up is Al Gore winning the 2000 election. Even then, Obama is such a singular figure in our nation’s political history that it’s easy to imagine him winning anyway and causing MAGA to arise in response.
If you read the book The Fourth Turning, you would say that Someone Like Trump was going to pop up at some point between 2016 and, say, 2024. The demographic trends were going to cause someone like Obama to get elected and then, in turn, someone like Trump would get elected in reaction.
One last thing I think we don’t really appricate is how the introduction of the iPhone may have also sealed our fate. Once social media was no longer tied to our PCs, then things like “cancel culture” and the mainlining of things once seen as freaky was going to happen one way or another.
Anyway, the ultimate end game of this clusterfuck is a complete mystery to me. I have no idea what happens. I do know, however, that we’re going to face a choice of either MAGA autocracy or a civil war. Which one we will pick, I don’t know for the time being.