I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — the best stealth political candidate in modern American politics is Jon Stewart. When he gets mad, he is articulate enough to actually get things done.
So, if the United States was a functioning democracy — and if ding-dong Trump had never been POTUS — we would all be waiting with baited breath for Stewart to run for president. He would likely be a historically good president for a variety of reasons.
But.
Given the bad taste that ding-dong Trump has put in a lot of people’s mouths when it comes to celebrities running for office…meh. And I would prefer if Stewart would run for governor or senator from New Jersey before POTUS. There is a possibility when the “Fourth Turning” strikes the US in late 2024, early 2025 that it could be someone like Stewart suddenly has the Finger of God point at him, telling him to step into the political arena to make a difference.
But, to date, Stewart has shown no interest in running for anything, so, lulz.
While I admire The Lincoln Project’s spunk, they’ve had their fair share of scandals. And there are any number of Blue “thought leaders” who fucking hate their guts. But I do believe that the organization may have its time to shine in late 2024, early 2025 when America is going to be in dire need of anti-MAGA leadership — no matter where it might come from.
Anyway, the reason why some people really get off on The Lincoln Project is there is a huge segment of the electorate which is center-Right by is queasy about MAGA. They’re Traditionalists who aren’t Good Germans. So, the idea of an organization that is organically conservative that hasn’t bought into MAGA’s fascist bullshit really makes them feel good.
I would, again, suggest we all withhold judgement on The Lincoln Project until late 2024, early 2025. That is when it will have it’s moment to shine.
Nothing sums up how dangerous idiot Ron “Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer” DeSantis is than the following tweet:
The reason why this is so dangerous is the type of mentality it indicates. Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer knows damn well that the Constitution is very explicit that a govenor can do jackshit to stop a criminal being extradited to another state.
And, yet, he says it anyway.
Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer loves, loves, loves to, like Trump, stress test the system to see what he can get away with. So, God forbid, Trump decides to hunker down in Mar-a-Lago after giving the issue some though, DeSantis could very well be put in a position where he is forced to lose face AGAIN when the Federal government swoops in and handles extradition itself.
But it’s clear that if Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer becomes POTUS, he will be America’s Putin. I’m beginning to think, however, that he’s going to hold off running until 2028. Even though if Trump wins in 2024, DeSantis may be president of just the Red States, given how we’re careening towards a very, very dark future in late 2024, early 2025.
It seems as though — as of now — whatever happens with Trump and his (first?) indictment will be historic but mundane. Allegedly, Trump plans to surrender himself next week in NYC and that will be that. He may not even have a perp walk. Though his mug shot will be so historic that it will be the “Candle in The Wind” of anti-Trump merch.
There is, of course, a greater-than-zero-sum chance that ding-dong will give it some thought over the weekend and change his mind. What better way to cause as much fucking damage as possible than to hold up in Mar-a-Lago. And Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer DeSantis has already — despite the U.S. Constitution not giving a shit what he thinks — made it clear he won’t help with any extradition.
My current concern is what happens between now and when Trump is arraigned. If Trump really goes transactional and insane — maybe even returning to Twitter along the way — how many people within the MAGA ranks will be willing to cause problems? If there are any problems, I would suggest you keep an eye on Arizona, D.C., Florida and NYC.
But one thing is clear — the longer this process drags out, the more momentum will build for significant political violence of some sort. That’s what happened with January 6th — Trump had several months to rant and organize the violence that almost successfully staged America’s first coup.
Another issue — is it possible that the political equation has changed now that this particular boil has been sliced and a veritable calicade of indictments will now rain down on ding-dong because it’s been proven that it’s not the end of the world to indict a former president? Trump has so successfully bent the law to his will because of politics that when things snap back into place, it may be a sight to see.
In a sense, this is just the beginning of a series of potentially historic, jaw-dropping events. Stay tuned.
The issue is no so much that DeSantis keeps screwing up, it’s that he keeps stress testing the law to see what he can get away with. This heartens his supporters and alarms his detractors. There is going to come a point where he wins a huge autocratic win.
What’s worse, Trump’s second term — should it happen — will be vengeful and radical to the point that he could, unto himself, spark a Second American Civil War one way or another.
There is such a deluge of fascist bullshit being generated by autocrat state governments that it’s inevitable that MAGA — lead by DeSantis or Trump — will score some huge autocratic win.
And THAT of course, leads to the question of what will be the political consequences of such a win. Will there be something to a Civil War or or will we just shrug as we continue our slouch towards autocracy? I don’t have an answer for you. It could go either way. It really could.
It was only a matter of time before Republicans fused their love of guns and hypocrisy with their hate of Trans people. The fact that the most recent mass shooting was perpetrated by a Trans person led to this inevitable tweet:
I think everyone knew this was coming eventually. And, what’s more, the tweet above is a reminder that it’s people on the edges of society that fascists come for first. And that’s why I grow very frustrated with the “illiberal Left” who seem determined to do everything in their power to drive Traditional conservatives into the arms of fascists.
“Woke” people are so fucking triggered for so many different reasons that it’s sometimes difficult to keep up. Some of this, of course, comes from how technology is aiding some amazing changes in what is orthodoxy among the center-Left, with being gay being “aspirational” for a lot of young people at the same time that it’s still considered a sin for a lot of old fart conservatives.
I totally get why so many Trans movement “thought leaders” are hysterical, but at the same time they’re the very people with the most to lose if we have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. Ugh.
If I was normal and had, like, a career and shit, I would write a tome about these three issues facing America and how we might solve them. But, alas, I’m just a drunk crank working on my first novel, so you get a few hundred words in a blog post.
Guns The two sides are growing more and more hardened on this issue. There is just no wiggle room. By definition, either you essentially want no gun control or you want sensible gun control that will never happen. The two sides are receding from each other at an alarming rate that I agree with #NeverTrumper David French that it’s easy to imagine a scenario where a huge mass killing in a Blue State might be, unto itself, enough to spark a civil war.
Abortion Of the three issues I’m going to address, abortion is the one that is, at its heart, economic and, as such, might start a civil war. Abortion requires a subtle, nuanced policy and….well, that’s never going to happen. As such, it could be that the first ping from a civil war will be when all Red States totally bad abortion, while all Blue states keep it legal — then SCOTUS upholds a national abortion ban…then comes after birth control, even for married people.
Trans It’s not so much the Trans movement itself that is of concern as it is the absolute illiberal groupthink that liberal-progressives have surrounding the issue. I generally support Trans rights, but I also know of people in my personal life who are being driven into the arms of fascism because they don’t believe in anyone being Transgender for religious reasons and this causes the “woke cancel culture mob” to freak the fuck out. If our politics was working at all, there would be a gradual move towards some sort of middle ground on the subject that didn’t involve alienating everyone possible in either political direction.
Trump Wins In this scenario, Trump wins one way or another and his second term agenda is so absolutely vengeful and radical that Blue states, probably starting with California, begin to leave the Union. To me, at the moment, this seems the most likely scenario. If a civil war happens, it’s going to happen because Blues, not Reds, get fed up and head for the exits.
Trump Loses In this scenario, Trump LOSES one way or another and when he begins to rant at the top of his lungs that Red states need to do something about it, states like Texas, Arizona, South Carolina and Florida see who can be the first out the door. Of course, being center-Left this is the scenario that makes me feel the best. Even though I don’t want a civil war — I hate violence of any sort — I’d rather not have to be the one to rationalize why my side decided to destroy the country I love so much.
Honorable mention is somehow, someway Biden manages to pick just the wrong moment to shuffle off this mortal coil between Election Day and Certification Day and….oh boy. Mass chaos!
But maybe I’m wrong as I keep being told. Maybe MAGA really will, because of demographic trends, fade into oblivion and that will be that.
I’ve given up when it comes to trying to change the minds of the Traditionalists in my life. The sides are set. I love them and it’s time to just accept that one way or another we’re going to be on opposite ends of a great cleaving in the United States.
But the issue at hand is this — while I understand that typically civil wars start because of economic issues, it definitely seems as though there’s a good chance that the Second American Civil War could happen because of, well, vibes.
This is a prime example of what I’m talking about. The differences in how Red and Blue view things like our epidemic of gun violence boiled down to one bigoted tweet.
While people like me are outraged that YET ANOTHER mass shooting has taken place, Reds have managed to fuse to things they hate — Trans people and gun control — into one hateful message. And, what’s more, unless the mainstream media screams at the top of their lungs that the shooter was Trans, the entire Right wing bullshit echochamber will grow apoplectic…because of vibes.
They will demand that the moment Reds have control of the hard power levers of the State that, I don’t know, we’re all forced to have a chatbot implanted into a skulls that screams “anti-woke” ” propaganda into our mind at all times. I wish I was kidding.
But that’s what Republicans want. Republicans are very much like middle school nerds who get upset that the “cool kids” won’t let them sit with them at lunch. Their entire political movement is based on grievance to the point that they are willing to burn the United States to the ground — one way or another — unless they get what they want.
In short, America is being terrorized by thin-skinned crybabies who are upset with combination of the browning of America, its trending towards secularism and women having economy agency. The question for me is — do we just gradually shift into a MAGA Nazi autocracy….or do we have a civil war?
There’s a guy I know through Twitter who assures me that all my hysterical fears about the possibility of either autocracy or civil war coming to America starting in late 2024, early 2025 are just that — hysterical fears. He makes the very cogent point that demographically, MAGA is on the losing side of history and it’s inevitable that the whole fascist American Nazi project will eventually fade into oblivion.
I constantly tell him I hope he’s right — and I really do.
And, yet.
The key thing I worry about is MAGA — KNOWS — that he’s right and, as such, they want to game the system so they can at least attempt to establish permanent white minority rule where the usual rules of a liberal western democracy don’t apply anymore. MAGA wants America to be an illiberal democracy so it just doesn’t matter the demographic situation — white Christians will always, always, be in control of the United States.
My concern is — would that transition into autocratic white Christian minority rule be peaceful? If Ron “Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer” DeSantis is the Republican nominee, then, yes. It will be peaceful. He will become president, become America’s Putin and that will be that. Gradually, wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flee the country, leaving we Poors to our own devices.
But there is the issue of Trump.
Trump is such a strange historical figure that he could, unto himself, cause the United States to descend into civil war / revolution because he bungles the otherwise peaceful transition into autocracy. It could happen in a number of different ways.
It could happen when Trump wins the 2024 election and his policies are so radical and fascist that Blue States leave the Union because they refuse to bend a knee to autocratic MAGA Nazism. Meanwhile, if he LOSES, he could start a civil war when he demands Red States leave the Union so he can be the “rightful” president of a new neo-Confederate States of America.
A lot of any potential secession crisis starting in late 2024, early 2025 would be how ripe states like Texas, South Carolina, Arizona and Florida are to leave the Union should Trump begin to rant about how Reds need their own nation if he loses.
Meanwhile, I’m at a loss to tell you if a state like California would really leave the Union if it became clear that Trump’s second term would be so radical that the state would feel it had no choice but to secede. It could be that, lulz, it’s just not collective temperament of Blues to do such a thing when they can just mass-migrate out of the country.
One thing I would suggest you keep an eye on — calls for a Constitutional Convention on the part of MAGA. This idea is floating around the Far Right, where Trump usually gets his “best” ideas and, as such, it’s entirely possible that he may spook Blue states by demanding one be called in his second term. And, remember, DeSantis is also really interested in the movement to call up a Constitutional Convention.
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