by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Datapoints
Wuhan
I think at least two (2) planeloads of Americans came directly from Wuhan, the COVID19 hotzone, in the last two months. In at least one of those instances, improper protective attire was worn by the staff because this IS the Trump Administration we’re talking about.
The death rate in Wuhan is about 2%.
Iran
It does seem as though it’s at least possible that they have a more potent strain of the virus. But it may be they just have a lot more under reporting of cases.
Italy
They have been the source of a lot of cases in the last few days (!). Much of Europe is beginning to get COVID19 from the Milan area.
South Korea
These guys are doing a great job testing and they STILL think it’s possible things could get out of control.
USA
We have reports of three states — California, Oreg an and Washington – having communal transition as of today. If you assume that maybe 200,000 people move in and out of those areas in any, say, three days, that’s a lot of chances for the communal transmission to bounce around the entirety of the United States very, very quickly.
Very little testing has been done to date.
No change in personal or group behavior.
Trump continues to have rallies.
The 2020 presidental campaign is in full swing. South Carolina has a rally today, Super Tuesday is on Tuesday.
About 47 million people in the United States are elderly.
My conclusion
About 6.7 million Americans, (2% of 335 million) may die directly from Trump being a bad president. I only say that because by the time we do get around to testing, a huge chunk of the American population will likely be infected.
By the end of the pandemic, nearly ever American might have been exposed because of administration incompetence when it really mattered at the early stages of the pandemic.
