by Shelt Garner
Let me stress that Trump is never leaving office for any reason. Or, if he does, the level of bloodshed involved in actually physically removing Trump from the White House will be so severe as to be a 9/11-level tragedy.
I say this because autocrats never lose. Also, for Trump to remain this popular after all his bullshit is a self-evident sign that there are some deep, deep existential flaws in the American body politic. At this point, we’re doomed to an autocratic “managed democracy” one way or another, it’s just a matter of who does it and how. Trump’s just the guy who crashed through the norms to get us to this point.
So, instead of any House Trump “Interregnum,” we’re far more likely to have either a mini-civil war, rolling political violence or maybe even some sort of “Unity Government” meant to punt the crisis down the road until the 2022 mid-terms. I’m being absolutely serious. House Trump is a reality and, baring something like Trump bungling a limited nuclear exchange with the DPRK, it’s ultimate dream of an illiberal white entho state is going to become a reality at some point in the next decade. It’s an absolute law of political science at this now, at least on the macro level.
But, let’s just imagine there is an Interregnum. How would it play out?
Well, I’m going to work on the assumption that what ultimately forces Trump out of office is Trump loses in a massive landslide so huge that it’s difficult for the Russians to pull off a hack of our election systems without someone noticing. So, while there will be violence and law suits and Trump ranting at the top of his lungs that he’s still president no matter what, at some point around Christmas, Senate Republicans realize not so much that they have any backbone, but the mood of the country is such that the U. S Military isn’t going to support their efforts to keep Trump in office. They begin to make it clear that Trump needs to leave office. We still have to frog walk him out of the Oval Office, but we do, in fact, manage to get him physically out of the building after a few weeks of tense negotiation.
What happens next is MAGA doesn’t blink an eye. The same bullshit echochamber that kept Trump at 40% of the electorate will now rant constantly about how Biden is an illegitimate president. Republicans will stonewall anything the Biden Administration does and begin to plot how to regain control of the House so they can impeach Biden (and his Veep.)
Now, it’s not too difficult to sketch out a scenario where MAGA continues to be so absolute in its support of The Dear Leader that when they do finally take control of the House, they name him Speaker and then do everything in their power to remove Biden and his veep from office so Trump can become president again. They will demand they both resign at every opportunity. They will scream that Biden “stole” the election and pound to table that the entire administration is based on a lie and has to be removed.
And, so, that’s what’s going to happen.
Either they push Biden and his veep out of off somehow and Trump becomes president again, or they spend the next two years screams at the top of their lungs about any possible thing the Biden Administration might have done wrong. If necessary they’ll simply lie about whatever they need to lie about.
In 2024, Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton is the Republican nominee and they win, thus able to do everything that Trump would have done in his second term.