How The US Could Have A Second Civil War In The Very Near Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, you fucking MAGA cocksuckers who come to this site chomping at the bit for a civil war to happen NOW — here’s how it would happen.

Something Tragic Happens To Biden
No Veep Because The Senate Is Equally Divided
The House Flips In November.
Speaker Trump
Speaker Trump Impeaches President Harris
In An Effort To Put Pressure On Senate Democrats, Speaker Trump Rants On Truth Social That Red States Should Secede If They Don’t Vote To Convict.

There you go, you fucking dipshit MAGA New Right cocksuckers — a civil war almost immediately.

A Second Look A Who Might Be Trump’s Second Term Veep Pick

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve already written about this, but let’s look again at who Trump might pick as his Second Term Veep.

To me, at the moment, there are the “normal” veeps and everyone else. Trump is very vain and very stupid and as such he is very likely to pick a weirdo as his veep as “insurance.” I could totally see him picking one of the following.

Louie Gohmert
Mike Flynn
Dr. Ronny Johnson

A Looming Crisis

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You could not think up a worse situation for the United States at the moment. Not only do you have a very old POTUS, you have an equally divided Senate. There’s no chance in hell that you could get a veep replacement through Congress right now should, God forbid, the absolute worst happen to our elderly POTUS.

So, if you wanted to get absolute worst case scenario on things, you could imagine something tragic happening to POTUS — maybe in cursed August? — and then we don’t have a veep. Then Republicans take the House and we have Speaker Trump who goes transactional on Truth Social, demanding political violence on the part of his followers in an effort to force Senate Democrats to go along with an impeachment of now President Harris.

Or, if you REALLY wanted to get dark, Speaker Trump doesn’t just call for political violence — he calls for secession.

And that, my gentle reader, is how we could possibly have a civil war not in in 2024 – 2023 but, essentially, NOW. But that’s really dark. Really, really dark. It’s extremely unlikely. Remote, even. But it is something to think about.

To put another way — the United States is far more unstable than any of us would like to admit.

Ok, you fucking MAGA cocksuckers who come to this site chomping at the bit for a civil war to happen NOW — here’s how it would happen.

Something Tragic Happens To Biden
No Veep Because The Senate Is Equally Divided
The House Flips In November.
Speaker Trump
Speaker Trump Impeaches President Harris
In An Effort To Put Pressure On Senate Democrats, Speaker Trump Rants On Truth Social That Red States Should Secede If They Don’t Vote To Convict.

There you go, you fucking dipshit MAGA New Right cocksuckers — a civil war almost immediately.

This Is The Farthest I’ve Ever Gotten With A Novel Attempt

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. Now what. I’m now on the process of working on the second draft of my first novel. I call it “second draft” because things are stable enough that I can, for the most part, follow the outline I have already established.

One problem is, of course, I have a huge hole in my outline.

But, other than that, I can just follow the outline I have all the way through and wrap up this “second draft” pretty quick. I also need to work on the other novels in this project. The dream would be, of course, that I can sell three novels like Stieg Larsson did without the whole dying of a hearttack problem.

We’ll see, I guess.

Yet I’m feeling pretty good. I still have a huge amount of reading to do.

No One Is Going To Save Us

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

People — especially Twitter liberals — really need to stop sucking their own cocks and get woke when it comes to how dire our immediate future is. Because of deep-seated, structural problems in the American body politic we are totally fucked.

The Republican Party is now fascist and, as such, it’s only a matter of time before they get power again and blow past democratic norms and seize power for good. That will be that. We’ll just be the most wealthy of a series of autocracies that include Turkey, Hungary and Russia.

All the Twitter liberals who think someone or something will save us will flee the country and drink cocktails in the south of France. They’ll talk about their latest Twitter thread that can’t even be viewed in the US anymore without a VPN.

Or we have a civil war.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Those are our two options at the moment. The system isn’t working and won’t work. It’s over. For the time being, we’re living in the twilight of American democracy (an anocracy) before we make the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

This is no longer 2017. It’s clear that Trump and his ilk are above the law and they don’t give a fuck about democratic norms, shame or any sense of being in the wrong because of hypocrisy. So, again, we’re fucked.

Absolutely, totally, completely fucked.

Either you see that our you’re fool.

The Next 9/11 Will Come From Climate Terrorists

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just looking out the window where I live and it’s clear that something fucked up is going on with the weather. Either you deny it, or you don’t. And I’m not the first to note that it’s very likely that we probably going to see the rise of organized climate change terrorism.

And the longer we all lulz that the earth is careening towards inhabitability the more likely it is that some group is going to organize a MAJOR terrorist event in protest.

I hate violence of any sort an have no idea what or when it might be, but I do know that organized climate terrorism is probably going to be the biggest threat to the Western world over the course of the next 20 years.

I would like to note that the DPRK continues to be very, very poor and have a lot of nukes lying around, so it would make a lot of sense if some well-funded group of climate terrorists blew up a city to make their point. Maybe it wouldn’t be a city — it could be something like the Baku oil wells or something. I don’t know, I’m just speculating.

But we’re going to continue to jack shit about climate change to the point where huge swaths of the earth simply are not livable anymore. And that is going to have huge geopolitical implications — I could totally see President DeSantis invade Canada 20 years from now for no other reason than he has the foresight to know that the US is going to need cooler climes to live in at some point in the future.

He’s going to be an autocrat by that point and “invading Canada” will be his “invade Ukraine” by that point — form follows function, after all.

My Hot Take On The Origins Of Watergate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s not like this theory hasn’t already been proposed, but just from my casual reading of the new history of Watergate, here’s what I think happened:

G. Gordon Liddy used a generally paranoid, disorganized and corrupt White House to “accidently on purpose” organize a dumb break in that Nixon didn’t know about directly. Once they were caught, the Nixon was his own worst enemy because there was so much “criming” going on within his White House that he had to cover up Watergate because of all the other crazy shit he was up to.

‘Bigger Than Watergate’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since it’s conception at the hands of Roger Ailes, Fox News has ranted about how this or that Democratic scandal is “bigger than Watergate.” They have done this to seed the ground for the moment when Republicans again do something like Watergate. They wanted their audience to be completely indifferent to the idea of anything being “bigger than Watergate.”

And, reading the new Watergate history, I’m struck by how extremely specific a scandal it was. Everyone thought it was the gold standard for how a modern Washington scandal was suppose to unfold when it was a very specific event that would never be repeated.

This was never more shown with the complete fucking clusterfuck that was Trumplandia were crimes “bigger than Watergate” happened on a nearly-daily basis in broad daylight.

But that’s not the point at the moment. The point is — I’m getting some serious pings from the future that things are going to get bumpy very quickly. And what is about to happen will be, in fact, “bigger than Watergate.” It will be bigger because we’ll be dealing with not the political but the existential.

Is America going to become a full blow Russian-style autocracy or is it going to have a civil war?

If that’s not bigger than Watergate, I don’t know what is.

At the moment, I have no idea which one is going to happen, which choice will be made. But I do know that starting with the overturning of Roe and the publicized primetime January 6th hearings that America’s ship of state is in for some severe rocky waters.

As I keep saying, if we chose autocracy, nothing will change at first. But Trump isn’t a young man. Whomever he picks as his veep, even that the Republic Party on an intuitional basis is now fascist, will quickly turn America in an autocracy the moment he — or she — becomes POTUS.

Or we have a civil war.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Things really that dire. The country really is that much on edge. I can’t predict future. There is no reveled truth, but I do know that there are dark waters ahead of the United States.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.

The Primetime Televised January 6th Hearings Will Be Compelling — But Ultimately Won’t Mean Jack Shit

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m looking forward to this month’s primetime January 6th hearings, but I have very ambivalent expectations. On one hand, I fully expect them to be compelling. On the other hand — meh. So what.

The United States is now not a democracy, but an anocracy and as such, lulz. Either we’re going to become a bull-blown autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war. The rot at the center of our political system is just too extensive. Epic, tectonic macro trends are at work and it will ultimately be up in the air which direction we go until the around the middle of late 2024.

I honestly don’t know what we’re going to do.

But the fact remains — we’re going to, as a nation, get a lot closer to understanding what happened on January 6th. Then collectively shrug and go back to hating each other.

For the time being, Republicans continue to be ascendant and there’s no reason to not think that the GQP will simply barrel over the center-Left and establish an American-flavored autocracy starting around 2025.

But, I suppose, there is small chance we’ll have a civil war. I don’t want one, and seeing’s believing that the American center-Left has it in it to start one.

If There Was A Second America Civil War, Which Side Would Leave In The ‘National Divorce?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have written about this before, but the continued trickle to this otherwise obscure site from people interested in the prospect of a Second American Civil War encourages me to write from every angle possible. Again, if necessary.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Ok, here’s where we have to make some assumptions. One assumption I’m going to make is that history will flip the script and it will be Blues, not Reds who want to leave the Union. The Reds are ascendant and should they start a civil war it would be one of the dumbest political screw ups in macro American history.

So, if a Second Civil War came to the United States, it would be started by Blues, not Reds, probably at some point in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. The war aim of the Blues would most likely be the “National Divorce” that the Reds keep salivating over.

But, because history loves, loves, loves irony, it will be Reds — probably forced by the U.S. Military — that will attack Blues when they try to leave the Union on the State level. Or, it could be that as Blue leave the Union, that the U.S. Military gets hollowed out as people within it leave for their home states and the US of Canada military, or whatever.

It could be that Reds demand Blues stay in the Union and we fight it out to see if Blues can start their own, new, Union or not. Or the fight is over “messy” states like Virginia and Texas that might implode because they don’t fit the easy definitions of “Blue” and “Red.”

This type of speculation is very difficult to do because there are so many factors that I simply can’t figure out. One is, will, for macro reasons, leadership that the center-Left definitely doesn’t have at the moment, rise to the occasion? I have my doubts, which is why I have my doubts about there being a civil war in the first place.

At the moment, we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. America will become another autocracy like Russia, Hungary or Turkey. In fact, that might be the biggest re-alignment of the 21st Century — the US ditching democracy altogether to join a new alliance of autocratic nations. Who knows, at this point, anything is possible.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.