Sometimes, I get the sense that the United States really is ripe for some sort of severe political disruption. The crux of it, of course, is income inequality. My fear is — no matter who wins the 2024 election — things are going to get out of hand.
The very thing that is our strength — or diversity — will be the thing that causes us to implode if, say, Trump either demands a National Divorce or if he wins and goes “full tyrant.”
Under either scenario, some really, really bad things might happen. The United States could buckle this fall and winter into a very precarious political situation. And, yet, just broaching such a thing is a pretty profound concept.
It just doesn’t seem possible that something like that might happen.
The key thing about the 2024 election is, because of the Electoral College, the fact that we have a collection of anti-MAGA interest groups going against a fascist party is hidden. As such, I just don’t know what to tell you — if Trump wins, this could be it — American democracy as we know it could be over.
Now, of course, MAGA shitheads will say I suffer from “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” The reason this is so dumb is “TDS” is more about hand waving on the part of MAGA cocksuckers than it is about having an honest political debate about anything.
Anyway, the point is — if Trump wins the key issue is how bad things might get. If Trump “autocrat-lite” like Orban in Hungary, then he can found an autocratic state in the United States pretty easily. We won’t have free and fair elections anymore — but we will have elections.
The fear is, of course, that Trump is so stupid that he will attempt to end elections all together — then we have a problem. A big problem. I just don’t see the American populace accepting something so dictatorial. There’s one thing for such tyrannical behavior to be abstract and yet another for to actually happen in the concrete.
So, I just don’t know. It will be interesting to see what happens. I hope Trump loses, but we have to prepare for him to win.
While the post-election timeframe may be a civil war, right now, at least, we’ve reached a lull. Not a lot is going on. This may mean, of course, that we’re ripe for an “October Surprise.”
I hope nothing like that happens, but who knows.
My fear is that some sort of AI thing will come out, like a sex tape. If it happened, it would probably drop really close to the election — too close for anyone to know what is real when they are actually voting in the polls.
But I’m known to be really paranoid and to overthink such things, so, lulz, I’m sure nothing like that will happen. (I hope.)
I just don’t know what to tell you about what might happen after the election this fall. I have written an obscene amount over the years about my fears that there will be some sort of civil war one way or another.
And, yet, maybe I’ve simply over thought things a great deal. Maybe — either way — we’re just not in a position where the country will collapse like I fear. I really hope that is the case.
I would prefer not to go through a civil war or any other type of significant political disruption in late 2024, early 2025. But that’s what I have been ranting about for way too long. It’s all I talk about on this blog, it seems — the absolute worst case scenario.
A lot depends, in my opinion, on what happens if Trump loses. If he loses and starts to rant for the need for a National Divorce, do states like Texas and South Carolina heed his call, or do they just ignore him? That’s the big question of the moment.
And I just don’t know the answer to it.
But one issue that I continue to linger on is how far Blues are willing to go if there is some sort of Certification Crisis. Is it possible that Blues would be will to challenge any effort on the part of MAGA to steal the election? I just don’t know. I really don’t.
I don’t know what to tell you, folks. I continue to be very, very worried about what is going to happen as part of the 2024 election. I only feel this way because, as I keep saying — you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once. At the moment, it seems like this is going to be just another election.
And, yet, there are two pretty dark scenarios that we have to address.
One is, Trump loses and he rants about the need for a National Divorce. That leads states — probably starting with Texas and / or South Carolina to head for the door, leaving the Union. I know how paranoid that sounds, but Texas in particular is already itching to leave the Union because of the situation at the border.
The other, even darker situation, is Trump wins and he goes full tyrant to the point that he is, in some way, deposed. That causes a civil war because Red States leave the Union in protest.
I don’t *really* think such a thing is going to happen, but I do worry. I worry a whole lot.
Even though Kamala Harris is beginning to look like she might win, I’m still very uneasy about the consequences of a Trump victory. We have to take seriously the idea that Trump may very well make good on his vow to deport 20 million people.
Anyway, if Trump does somehow win, I still am uneasy that he may go “full tyrant” and, as such, somehow be deposed. I have no idea how such a thing would happen, but if he really did go full tyrant…some pretty shocking and historic things could happen one way or another.
I don’t want such things to happen, but I like to think in the macro and it seems if Trump tried to deport 20 million people overnight someone, somewhere in the United States might take notice of such a shocking thing.
But, who knows. No one listens to me. And they probably shouldn’t.
I drove to and fro Richmond over the weekend and there were a growing number of very “MAGA or death” yard signs here and there along my trek. It was very unsettling. It reminds me — again — of what might happen if ding-dong Trump loses, much less if he wins.
If he loses, it seems as though there is a real chance of a civil war — with Virginia being at the forefront of the state to simply implode. I could see some rather dramatic things happen, like coups and counter-coups in Richmond. I could see half the counties of Virginia deciding to secede to form a MAGA state if they don’t get their way with the entire state seceding.
And it could all happen this fall.
It is all very alarming. Add to this Trump’s ranting about mass deportation if he wins and…yikes! It definitely seems as though it’s possible the next 18 months could see some pretty fucking dramatic political events in the United States no matter what happens or who wins in November.
All I can say is I’ve voted. There’s not much I can do otherwise — or will do, if nothing else.
I’m not REALLY worried about being forced out of my home if Trump loses — or, hell, if he wins — but I am uneasy. I’m uneasy that no matter who wins, the country could grow a lot more unstable than you might otherwise think.
It doesn’t help that all these Russians keep looking at my scenario whereby it’s the Blues, not the Reds who start a civil war because the Reds cheat in some sort of post-election certification imbroglio. I know that sounds really far fetch at the moment, but, lulz, stranger things and all that.
But as I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so, oh boy. There are a lot of scenarios whereby things at some point after the election take a sharp left turn into chaos and the whole country heaves with chaos and confusion.
And it could be either side that causes it, depending on who wins, how and why. That’s really the scary part to me — even if Trump gets what he wants, he could single handedly cause a civil war by being such a tyrant — going “full tyrant,” if you will — that he is somehow deposed (probably by the U.S. Military.)
I know people like Tom Nichols think that’s crazy talk, but if Trump went full tyrant I do think there is a greater-than-zero chance he might, just MIGHT be deposed.
It will be nuts to see, but it’s possible. THAT is when the civil war would start when Red states leave the Union in protest.
Anyway, I just hope I’m being paranoid and over thinking things.
I’ve written about this potential problem from every possible angle I’ve been able to think up over the last few years, but that doesn’t make the possibility of a certification crisis any less real.
There are a variety of ways it could work out, from micro issues at the local level all the way to macro issues in the House. But the fact remains, like the old saying goes — you go bankrupt gradually then all at once.
In this particular instance, this phrase means that we could all get sucker punched out of the blue when what should happen, doesn’t happen. Harris could squeak through a victory, only to “lose” the election because of this or that post-election certification shenanigans.
This raises the question — are Blue states willing to go mano-a-mano with Red states as to making sure the legal winner of the election is sworn in? That is a question I just don’t know at the moment.
I would prefer no political violence for obvious reasons. And I’m not in any way promoting any such thing, but I do fear that if such things were to happen that I will become a domestic political refugee because well, my state — Virginia — is actually two states fused together who absolute hate each other.
If there is any significant post-election political violence, Virginia will be in the thick of things. It is one of a few states that will simply collapse into chaos as quickly as possible.
And that will suck, big time.
I don’t think people appreciate how sucky it will be on a practical basis if there is any sort of civil war in the United States. The race war in the Deep South alone will make the whole thing intolerable. And we’ve not even begun to address the possibility of billions — billions — dying across the globe when nuclear tipped regional wars break out.
Ugh.
I just don’t think people are taking all of this seriously enough.
The more I jack back into the American political scene after….an extended strange period of time in my life…the more I am uneasy about what may happen in the post-election period.
They say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once and it definitely seems as though we may lurch into something pretty dark soon after the election of 2024 is over. The post-election process could go haywire in a number of different ways that I have detailed at length on this blog over the years.
One big fear I have right now is Trump loses outright, but he really leans into all sorts of shenanigans surrounding certification of votes on a local basis. His goal will be to force a direct confrontation with the Blues to the point that he could steal the election and cause a civil war with it being Blues, not Reds who leave the Union or otherwise cause problems.
Or something like that. Something bad.
And it doesn’t help that I keep seeing Russians look at this blog interested in just that type of scenario. My fear, of course, is they are going to use my scenarios as a blueprint in some sort of nefarious backchannel with the Trump campaign.
I know I’m being really paranoid, but stranger things have happened.
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