Category: Cold Civil War

Taking The Prospect of Civil War Seriously…Again

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I used to think it was almost inevitable that there would be some sort of severe political violence this fall, no matter who won. Things were kind of hot.

But now, I’m not nearly as sure.

I think there is a good chance that things will be really bumpy, but it’s highly unlikely that there will be a civil war if Trump loses.

If he wins, however, because of Project 2025 bullshit, there is, in fact, a good chance that he will somehow *somehow* be “toppled” or some such and that, by definition, will lead to a civil war with Red States leaving the Union in protest.

But even that is a lot less likely that I feared previously.

I think things should go pretty well, no matter what.

Welp, The Russians May Being Using My Second American Civil War Scenario To Plot The Nation’s Demise With The Trump Camp

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of people from Russia — specifically Moscow — continue to eye my very detailed scenario about how, effectively, Trump could start a civil war by denying Harris her win by denying the proper certification of her election.

I guess there’s not much I can do about it at this point. My fear is, of course, that the Russians will give my scenario to the Trump people as a roadmap for how they could successfully(?) steal the election from Harris, no matter what happens.

But I’m just being paranoid, right? Right? RIGHT?

Texas’ Political Status This Fall Makes Me Nervous

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Of all the states, Texas is the most likely to start the process of National Divorce if Trump loses this fall. Of course, on the other side, California is the one state I could see leaving the Union — or prompting Trump being deposed — if he goes full tyrant after he wins.

Anyway, keep an eye on Texas. The secessionist rhetoric has gotten so bad in the state that at some point a newspaper there ran an editorial telling everyone to shut up about it.

It will be interesting to see what happens, is all I gotta say.

Contemplating Crooked Media Merging With The Lincoln Project

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve noticed an uptick in collaboration between Crooked Media and The Lincoln Project. It would make a lot of sense for the two companies to merge because it would put huge swath of anti-MAGA media under the same umbrella.

But I don’t know the internal workings of either organization, so I don’t really know how things would go. It could be that this is all a temporary thing and the egos are just too big.

Or something. What do I know. But it would make a lot of sense for the two organizations to formally join forces.

Mulling A Trump Loss

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My fear is, of course, that if Trump loses that he will, unto himself, spark a civil war. The reason why I think this is how radical, on an institutional basis, state Republican Parties have become.

As such, I don’t think it would be too absurd to suggest that if Trump loses and he begins to rant and rant and RANT that he was “cheated” yet again, there is a pretty good chance that states — beginning with Texas — will call up Secessionists Conventions.

This is all very speculative — and a bit nuts.

What the “normal” person would tell you is no amount of ranting on Trump’s part could possibly lead any state — Texas or otherwise — to do such a radical thing. But I’m worried. Really worried.

It seems as though things have come to a head. It seems to me that Texas’ Republican Party has, collectively, decided the state is already one foot out of the Union already.

Anyway, who knows. I can’t predict the future. Anything — or nothing — might happen.

Back To The Nadir Of The Year

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, after about 24 hours of excitement, it seems like we’re back to just meh. Nothing of note is happening. And it could be that for the next few weeks that’s what it’s going to be like — just one long meh.

I still don’t know what’s going to happen this fall and winter. It really could go either way. It really could. It could be that, lulz, nothing happens. And it could be a regular HOLY SHIT moment in America’s history.

I hope all my ranting about the possibility of a civil war / revolution is totally wrong. But there is going to be a moment — maybe a few moments — during late 2024, early 2025 when we all have to take a deep breath and see which way things are headed.

But, maybe, the point is just to relax and enjoy not much going on. August, though, tends to be a pretty shitty month. So bad, maybe it would be better if it just didn’t exist.

Yet, who knows, maybe this year’s August will be different.

The Problem With Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The problem with Trump — and there are many to choose from — is inevitably really smart people make some very complex determinations about him that just aren’t applicable.

Trump is a simple political figure — (older) (white) conservatives [men] feel disenfranchised.

That’s it. That’s all that’s going on.

And they will latch on to anyone and anything that will make them feel like they can “make America great again” by giving what they perceive is their lost status in the social, cultural and political pecking order.

This is an issue that isn’t going anywhere. It’s going to linger and linger until either we have a civil war because Blues leave the Union or we have a civil war because Reds leave the Union.

It is a fever that will never, ever break for macro reasons. We’re totally, completely fucked.

Now, having said that, I can’t predict the future. I’m sure *something* might happen that prevents a civil war. And it could be that Trump is elected, goes “full tyrant” and…nothing happens. About 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country, leaving Poors like me to my fate, and lulz, that’s it.

But, again — I can’t predict the future. This is just my mid-summer dread speaking at the moment.

I Can’t Predict The Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep ranting about how I think all these horrible things will happen in late 2024, early 2025, but let me be clear — I have no fucking clue what is going to happen.

I have a lot of unease, a lot of worry, but it could be that we either defeat Trump and it’s all a lulz, or Trump goes full tyrant and no one cares. But there is one thing we have to remember — we’re dealing with structural problems. MAGA isn’t going anywhere.

The fever isn’t ever going to break. The political rot of MAGA is severe, macro and could very well destroy us.

Of AI, The Fourth Turning & Hollywood’s ‘Survive Until 25’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

According to the Hollywood-related podcasts that I listen to, “Survive Until 25” is the current mantra in LA. Apparently, showbiz is kind of imploding at the moment. I really don’t know why — I’m just some rando in the middle of nowhere — but it is interesting.

One reason why it’s interesting is it’s happening right as two things — one political, the other technological — are about to crash onto Hollywood in something of a perfect storm.

It could be that by 2025, things like OpenAI’s “Sora” will really begin to take off in the context, of, well the whole world collapsing because of severe political turbulence in the USA and, by extension, the whole world.

(Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I continue to have a lingering fear about such things.)

Anyway, I don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Hollywood is going to undergo a pretty radical transformation in the next few years and 2025 could not be a year of rebirth, but rather one of radical upheaval and transformation.

We Are Heading Towards A Dark Autumn

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you. I don’t know how we collectively make it out alive this autumn. But, maybe, just maybe, all my dystopian hellscape ranting is just a bunch of bullshit overthinking.

I am prone to do that, you know.

There are all these different things that might happen. From a certification crisis, to Trump going full tyrant. You name it.