Category: From The Editor

How Trump Wins The 2020 Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. A COVID19 “vaccine”before the election.
    It doesn’t matter how real it is. All he needs is to allay the concerns of the elderly.
  2. The Durham Investigation
    At a minimum, it has the potency of the Second Comey Letter in that it implicates Biden (and Obama?) in criminal activity. Even though it’s all a lie.
  3. Trump’s fucking with the postal service
    This, in itself, is enough to shave off a few points off Biden’s lead
  4. The Russians
    The Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany.

So Trump wins on election night. If he doesn’t, Barr does a massive power grab. Either we do something about that en mass, we don’t. Good luck.

This Is Going To Be An Unusual Election, No Matter What


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have said before that there are two different “tracts” when it comes to the 2020 election. On one track there is the traditional political dynamic of an American election. That track is what Biden is using.

Meanwhile, on the Trump side, politics is a moot point. It’s about tribalism and, if need be, force of arms.

In other words, the only valid outcome of the 2020 election for Trump supporters is a Trump win. Even if he does win, they probably are so ready to to knock some heads, that violence may happen anyway.

The point is — I continue to grow really aggravated by Blue Check Liberals who are completely oblivious to the cold hard fact that MAGA-Qanon is going to lie, cheat and steal (and maybe blow shit up) if it appears as if Trump isn’t going to win.

I still think Trump is going to “win” outright on Election Night for a number of reasons. And, really, if he doesn’t, then every day he’s not victorious is another day that we careen towards significant violence on the part of the Right. It doesn’t matter if they believe their own bullshit or not, someone, somewhere will and then there will be a reaction and then, well, yikes!

But that really is the absolute worst case scenario. More likely what’s going to happen is a combination of fucking with the postal service, the bullshit Durham Investigation and the Russians hacking directly into our election systems will hand Trump a victory pretty early on in the process.

Good luck, folks, you’re going to need it.

The Struggle Is Real: Writing Female Characters As An Aspiring Male Novelist


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s an old joke from the Usenet days which is relevant to the modern social media world. “Go thee not to Usenet for answers, for you will only get ‘yes,’ ‘no’ and ‘Try another newsgroup’ as your answers.”

So, often time, one can say something pretty innocuous (at least for you) and the next thing you know it goes DL viral and everyone is coming at you from different directions, telling you how much you suck.

I tweeted something under yet another video by a woman complaining about how piss-poor men’s descriptions of women in novels are about how I, for one, was at least TRYING not to fall into that trap. Everyone went bonkers, coming at me from every possibly direction.

It’s all very annoying.

Not only does it remind you of the old adage, “Never tweet,” it also makes you grit your teeth and think, “This is how we got Trump.” If you’re so blinded by identity politics that you think it is absolutely impossible for a man to be empathetic enough to write female characters that aren’t just poorly written bimbos, then you need to re-evaluate your priorities.

The last time I checked, women are, like, humans and it doesn’t seem too much of a stretch that imagine that a man — also being a human — could, with some thought, write female characters that are good enough that you don’t want to throw the book across the room in frustration.

Anyway. I just needed to get that out of my system. I couldn’t do anything more with the thread on Twitter because I would only stir up more trouble.

My Current Durham Investigation Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me that this is going to happen: Barr is going to come out and announce with great fanfare sometime in October that Durham’s “preliminary” findings are that Obama and Biden were directly involved in criminal spying on the Trump Campaign in 2016.

The implication will be that “for the sake of the country” they will hold off on actually indicting them until after the election.

Now, that’s the most logical outcome of this bullshit investigation into what was a legitimate and normal investigation into shenanigans on the part of the Trump Campaign.

But there is another option.

Trump / Barr might get REALLY GREEDY and they don’t do something as benign — but important — as doing something with the political potency of the Second Comey Letter.

No, they give the craven MAGA-Qanon hoards what they want — to see Obama and Biden frogwalked.

Now, none of this would happen in a political vacuum. Such an abuse of power on the part of the Trump Administration would likely cause rage in a lot of unexpected quarters. But Trump wouldn’t care — he gets the twofer of finally seeing Obama in “jail” and shaving off enough points of Biden’s lead due to the confusion right before the election that Trump can win just like he did and go about consolidating power.

I can’t predict the future. I don’t know what’s going to happen. But there is, at least, something of a spectrum to think about. I think a lot of my angst is for nothing because Barr is going to give Trump all the legal justification he needs to steal the election and do whatever the fuck he wants.

Ugh.

The American Political Crisis of 2020


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Trump isn’t Hitler.
The thing I often say is that history is given value and a narrative after the fact to make it easier to understand. While you’re actually living through it, you have no idea what is going to happen. Everything seems a chaotic series of random events.

So, we look back at the rise of Hitler and see that it was “obvious” that someone like Hitler was going to come about for various macro reasons. In fact, I would say the rise of Trump in the United States has definitely give me far more understanding of the historical context of Hitler than I had before.

Looking at Hitler’s rise then at Trump, it’s easy to make the assumption that our goose is cooked. While Trump is unlikely to try to take over the world like Hitler, he is probably going to significantly re-arrange not only the United States but the global order once he successfully steals his second term. And, in fact, I have come to believe that that is a forgone conclusion.

And, yet, the Wilmer Republic and the First American Republic are sufficiently different on some major, existential metrics to warrant doing a little bit of comparative political analysis. I’m not an expert on the rise of Hitler, but I know enough to give you a reasonably educated opinion.

One of the key differences between Hitler and Trump is Hitler was dealing with a homogenous European country with a history of autocratic rule. The United States, meanwhile, is far larger, has a significant non-white population and generally has a strong liberal democratic tradition.

And, yet, obviously, America’s democratic norms, traditions and institutions are all rotting to the point of non-functioning. As such, an extremely compelling case can be made for Trump following an almost identical path to absolute fascist power as Hitler. And very soon — probably about 18 months.

There is a known unknown, however, that make me question that snap judgement. It’s Trump himself. Trump has benefited from astonishing existential problems in the American political system that pretty much protect him from any form of accountability. He, quite literally, is an absolutely deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner.

It’s very possible that Trump, being the deranged moron that he is, could make a massive strategic miscalculation. He is so used to getting away with everything, that he rather abruptly (using Barr) makes a significant power grab. The power grab is so brazen and ham-handed that it sets of a cascading set of event that lead to the one thing that Trump can’t afford — the average person getting woke.

Even with this unknown, I still think Trump is going to pull it off. And, really, there’s only one last thing that might stop Trump from totally consolidating power. If Trump does consolidate power, he has two “flavors” of fascism he might choose from. He could go to autocratic managed democracy like in Russia, or he could go the Hitler route which is far more capricious, vicious and cruel.

If Trump had but a mere modicum of self-control or actual political ability, he has the Russian-style autocratic managed democracy in the bag. He can do that no problem. And, in all honesty, I think that’s our fate. It’s all over but the shouting. Just like impeachment, I’m going to do all this speculating about possible outcomes other than acquittal and then the very outcome I knew was going to happen all along, happens.

But we know that not only is Trump a self-own artist, he’s stupid and greedy, so it’s at least possible that he will attempt to go the Hitler route and go full despot before America’s self-perception has changed.

It’s at least possible that should he go full-despot and a lot of center-Right but not MAGA people are finally, finally, FINALLY forced to have an opinion about Trump one way or another that they may say fuck this and side with the “resistance.” As such, the United States might be looking less at a Second American Civil War and more at a Second Revolutionary War.

What I mean by this is the existing power structure of the United States might be completely swept away. It wouldn’t be like the Civil War where the North’s economic and power structure took over the defeated South’s, thus uniting the country under a common vision.

Nope. It could be that the two sides go at it in such a way that new leaders woud bubble up to prominence for no other reason than a complete failure of the old order. I find this extremely unlikely, but it is something to think about.

I say this because most of the existing power structure of the center-Left is completely ineffectual. If there was actually some sort of “revolution,” they would be the first to go. People with vision and guts would take over and make a lot of very hard decisions for the country that to date we’ve simply muddled through or punted down the road.

But such a dramatic change would have massive consequences and require a tragic and significant loss of life. (So, I really don’t want that to happen.)

Let me be clear this post is more about me making my abstract fears concrete so they don’t bother me so much. I think, really, the only issue before us a few more people might realize the jackboot is on our face, but there won’t, in real terms, be that much of a chance in any one person’s daily life — yet.

The United States’ Three Fates: Fascism, Civil War or Revolution


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A lot of options face the United States right now but one — a peaceful transfer of power. That’s just not going to happen. Either Trump wins outright and we slip into tyranny or there is a civil war or revolution.

Fascism
In this scenario, Trump “wins” a second term and he continues to consolidate power gradually to the point that he gets those “12 more years” he keeps ranting about. This will happen either because he purges the media so, lulz, or he gets a Constitutional Convention. I will note, however, that Trump is not expansionist. The country is more likely to pull all its troops from everywhere across the globe and turn into something of a Hermit Kingdom. This, of course, will likely cause something akin to WW3. I could definitely see the United States form some sort of alliance with Russia after it leaves NATO. But it’s very likely that Qanon will be given free reign to round up and murder people a la the Khmer Rouge. Or, at least, Qanon would act in conjunction with a concerted effort to fill ICE Camps with the same types of people that Qanon wants dead.

Civil War
This would happen if there were dueling presidents, with a “Blue State” president and a “Red State” president. A lot depends which side gets the U.S. Military as to how, exactly this particular situation plays out. This is kind of a worst case scenario. A lot of things would have to go wrong for Trump for things to grow that dire. But he is a massive self-own artist, so anything is possible.

Revolution
This is much like the civil war scenario. The difference would be that even the U.S Military implodes and no institution is spared a radical transformation as the Red and the Blue go at each other’s throats.

And, remember, none of this would happen in a vacuum. The DPRK and the Russians might get involved. And maybe even the EU. But we have to begin to think seriously about how for the first time in living memory, the United States may be an active battlefield. Good luck.

Two Tribes — How The Blue States Could Win A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One way Blue States could win a Second American Civil War.

As I keep saying, that any Rightwing nutjob would actually WANT a civil war, really makes no sense. The moment you leave the realm of the political and enter an existential situation, all bets are off. It could go any number of different ways.

I guess, for me, the real existential question is why the Right now hates the center-Left with such a rage that they would care more about having the opportunity to kill liberals on the battlefield than be content with their continued political victories in Washington D.C. There’s something really wild going on on a macro level and I simply don’t have a ready answer.

Anyway, as you can tell from this map, Blue States — should they decide to stand and fight — have one clear way they could win the war. California is a huge, politically cohesive state that could easily supply the men and economy necessary to put the Blue States in a very strong position militarily. There aren’t a lot of people — in real terms — between California and, say, Minnesota and Wisconsin so, all things being equal, their forces could easily blitzkrieg across the largely empty (and Red) Great Plains. Once the Blue States are contiguous, they can press east and south into the heart of Old Dixie. Additionally, Florida — like Virginia — would likely implode because it’s actually on a political level several different states smashed together. South Florida is Blue while the rest of the state is various shades of Purple outside of the panhandle area.

I’ve also noted that, in general, Red States are far less politically united than Blue States. And, if I had any control over Blue State war aims, I would entice the African American community in the South to rebel en mass by telling them they would get some sort of reparations for slavery if they did so. Freed slaves were key to Union victory during the original civil war. If you have huge swaths of the population of Dixie in open rebellion against the fascist Neo-Confederates, then that particular problem might be wrapped up a lot quicker than you think.

But one thing you have to remember — this would not happen in a vacuum. We don’t know which side the U.S. Military will land on. We don’t know if desperate Red States won’t seize WMD and start using chemical, biological and tactical nukes on Blue States to slow their advance down. We also don’t know if the DPRK might nuke the States in some way during all of this or if Russian won’t throw aid to the Red States because, well, lulz.

The whole thing could grow far more messy and intractable than you might think. The whole country will, essentially, be burned to the ground should his happen. But the case could be made that should Blue States solve the central problem of the United States, that we might enter a second Gilded Age. (If the Red States win, we’ll probably just endup slaves to House Trump.)

I guess the ultimate endgame could be a lot more messy than that, will some sort of rump Red State USA surviving out of spite. I can’t predict the future, I don’t know.

Good luck everyone.

Only A Trump Victory Will Be Seen As Legitimate By MAGA-Qanon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I see a lot of Blue Check liberals who talk about how, on a political level, the Trump campaign is “imploding.” “Love to see it,” they say. I find this very aggravating because they’re deluding themselves.

America’s political system has collapsed. As such, for MAGA-Qanon, there can only be one legitimate victor in the fall — Donald Trump. This means that any outcome that doesn’t involve Trump winning is to be challenged, maybe even in an armed revolt. The issue is, of course, that if Trump “wins,” then he’ll begin to aggressively consolidate power and so, lulz, that’s it.

So either Trump wins and turns us into an autocratic managed democracy our he loses and there’s significant political violence, up to and including an actual civil war. I just don’t see the result that a lot of Blue Check Liberals apparently believe will happen — that of a Biden victory and a peaceful transfer of power — happening. It’s just not a very likely scenario at this point.

The more difficult it is for Trump to secure a victory, the more radical and ham-handed he will become. This, in turn, will throw the country in turmoil because a lot of Biden people are unlikely to simply let this happen without some sort of real-world response. As Trump’s insanity and political criminality fuse tighter and tighter as the days progress, there are all kinds of nightmare scenarios involving actual violent clashes in the streets.

Should the absolute worst case scenario happen — that of dueling presidents — then all bets are off. The only real question at that point will be which president the U.S. Military sees as valid and how they decide to put down any major insurrection on either the Blue or Red side.

I guess there’s the possibility that major Blue States may simply leave the Union, but I find that a bit too much of a liberal fever dream. It would make a lot more sense for California to stay and fight than try to leave the Union and give Trump a massive political excuse to attack them with the U.S. Military.

Anyway, one thing is for sure — this fall and winter are going to be extremely historic. Either the United States turns into an autocratic managed democracy, or there’s something akin to a civil war. If there is a new American civil war, then soon thereafter, it’s likely World War III will break out as the DPRK and Russia see their opportunity to finally obtain their long term stragetic goals.

I will note that there is a chance that MAGA-Qanon will self-own even if Trump “wins.” They could now already be so bloodthirsty that even if Trump “wins” they will start murdering people they don’t like in cold blood. That, in itself, could evoke a significant response from Blue State governments.

Good luck

#Novel First Draft Deadline: Election Day


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are going reasonably well with the first draft of the novel right now. My goal is to finish a first draft by Election Day. This is so encase all hell breaks loose, at least I’ll have a finished first draft under my belt.

I really need to map out, in real terms, how may chapters I’m going to finish each week. If I don’t do that, I could simply continue my current practice of moving in a general direction without any hard set metrics to gauge my progress on.

But I definitely am moving forward now. Because of the way I’m developing and writing, I honestly don’t know my word count right now. In a way, however, that’s rather liberating. This is just a first draft and the point is to get something, anything, down so I can turn around and rewrite the whole thing with a far clearer eye as to what the story’s strengths and weaknesses are.

I continue to have a linger uneasy as to what the world will look like when I try to query it. My fear is that I’m writing something that, in hindsight, will be like writing a mystery thriller set in late 1930s America. By 1942, of course, it will be seen as rather quaint.

I think that’s more about a general sense of uneasy about the nation’s future, however. It’s far more likely that Trump is going to “win” and continue to consolidate power in fits and starts. That should give me something of a window of opportunity to finish this first book in the series and try to sell it.

At least, that’s the dream right now.

One issue that I continue to struggle with is the actual investigation show in teh story. I’m not exactly the world’s greatest investigative journalist and so it’s a real struggle to think about how my characters might do such a thing. But I’ve made great strides in just the last few days, so there’s hope I can figure something, anything out on that front.

If anything, I now know I need to leave a lot more clues in the first act so I can draw upon them in the first part of the second act.

You can’t edit a blank page, as they say.

A Curious Trump Statement


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump said something really weird recently. I can’t find the exact quote, but it was something along the lines of he how he “really” won the popular vote even though he obviously didn’t.

Usually when Trump says something weird like that, it’s because a similar idea is rolling around in his head. It makes you wonder if he is hedging his bets in some way. Maybe staking claim to that argument should Biden make the argument that he’s really the president in some post-election fiasco?

Regardless, it was an unusual statement given how we’re careening towards a enormous clusterfuck this fall.