Category: Hindsight 2020

Anocracy In America: Only Trump Can Stop Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at This Point


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You’re a fool if you think Ron DeSantis isn’t probably going to be the next president of the United States. As of right now, he’s got a straight shot at becoming America’s Putin. He will gradually at first, then more and more quickly, strangle American democracy and we’ll wake up in 20 years with him still being president.

But there are still some obstacles to him becoming America’s Putin. First of all, there’s Trump. Either Trump destroys DeSantis politically, or the two come to some agreement whereby DeSantis is Trump’s veep and ultimate successor. The latter is a win-win for both Trump and DeSantis, but Trump is so stupid and lazy that I could easily see Trump naming someone really crazy like Mike Flynn to be his veep.

Then we really would have something to cry about.

Another wildcard is the Russo-Ukrainian War. If it escalates into something closer to WW3, then there is a small chance that everything will be so changed that Biden or Harris (or name a Democrat) might be in a position to leverage that particular clusterfuck to at least punt the existential choice of autocracy or civil war down the road one more presidential election cycle.

But the point is — we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. No one is going to save us and at this point, the only question is who is going to be America’s Putin. We can only punt the fall of our democracy down the road for so long.

It’s growing more and more obvious that, tragically, the only hope of saving our democracy may be the high risk, high reward option of civil war. But there are no assurances that there would be a pat endgame. Things could be very muddled and the world will fly past a broken America.

Stay Of Play For The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War For March 2, 2022: Contemplating The Fall Of Kyiv


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We really need to manage our expectations when it comes to this war in the near term. It could very well be that the Russians will “win” in the near term simply because they’re bloodthirsty enough to burn Ukraine to the ground to get what they want.

My fear for the future of Ukraine.

Part of this would be the fall of Kyiv.

What worries me is not so much what this would mean for events on the ground — the Ukrainians would keep fighting, no matter what — as it it would mean for the Western media narrative.

If and when Kyiv falls, then the Western media might grow a lot more doom -and -gloom about Ukraine’s prospects. To the point that they might move on to the next big news event. Which, come to think of it, they are going to do anyway, given the impending arrival of the political silly season later on this year as part of the the 2022 mid-terms.

So, in a sense, if the Russians don’t sue for peace, but rather escalate things and simply burn Ukraine to the ground, the whole thing might become background noise to the more pressing issue of Trump potentially becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.

Thus, I think we may look back on 2016 as the last “normal” year we’re going to have for a long, long time. In fact, the era between 2016 and, maybe 2030 could be seen as a macro “Great Reset” that either leaves humanity united and able to handle Big Issues like Global Climate change or hopelessly divided to the point that our continued existence is moot.

Anyway, the the clock is ticking. If the Russo-Ukrainian Winter war drags on beyond winter and is still going strong this fall, then everything will be different. If it’s still going on next year, then the quisling MAGA politicians who will then be running Congress may lulz the whole thing since they’ll be impeaching both Biden and Harris repeatedly.

Russo-Ukrainian Winter War State of Play For February 25th, 2022

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here’s my hot take on where things stand at the moment with the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War.

Refugees
We could be in for a massive refugee catastrophe in the coming days. The more it becomes clear that Ukraine might turn into Afghanistan 3.0, the more likely that we’re facing the projected 5 million refugees. Then, you have to worry about where all those people would go. I doubt they would be very welcome long-term in Europe, but because of the innate racism of the America MAGA New Right, it’s possible that because well, Ukrainians are white, that a big portion of that potential 5 million refugees could end up in the US.

Battle For Kyiv
This could be very horrific. And, in the end, if Kyiv falls, I’m assuming the Ukrainian government will fall back to Lviv. That would mark the end of the beginning of the war. And if the president of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dies at the hands of the Russians in the next few days, he will become a martyr to the cause and the they will unleash the gates of hell.

The Nightmare Scenario
There is the possibility, of course, that Putin is no longer a “rational actor” and he might strike major Ukrainian cities with either really big conventional bombs or really small nuclear bombs. In either case, that would push the whole world into a new, very unstable era. Once the taboo against using any form of nuclear weaponry is broken — for any reason and at any size –then all eyes turn to the DPRK, India, Israel, etc. Things could get very dark very quickly.

The Southern Front
This is something we’re not paying enough attention to. The Russians have a major breakout in the south of the Ukraine in the Crimea. They could split up their forces so they go east to Odessa while going west behind the line of contact in Donbass. They would also just go straight north and head for Kyiv. The whole of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River could collapse because of this souther breakout.

Russian Instability
It’s possible that the thing we’ve all predicted if Putin invaded Ukraine in a big way — some sort of Russian Revolution / Civil War — may very well happen. It probably won’t happen anytime soon, but we definitely have a potential setup for it happening around 2024 – 2025. This, of course, would be just about the same time the US will have its own existential choice of civil war or autocracy. Talk about Great Reset!

End of the Beginning: The Potential Fall Of Kyiv & The Retreat to Lviv


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m not prepared to give up hope on Kyiv just yet, we have to begin to think of worst case scenarios. It definitely looks like Kyiv is going to fall very, very soon and, as such, the only way to keep the fight alive is to fall back to Lviv.

Lviv is strategic for a number of reasons — it’s very close to the Polish (NATO) border, it’s really far west AND it’s the in the part of Ukraine that is both the most western and the easiest to defend (as I understand it.) As such, just because Kyiv falls, doesn’t mean the war is over, it just means it’s entered a new phase.

The end of the beginning and all that.

Anyone with a passing knowledge of WW2 can tell you that wars have a dynamic all their own. It makes a lot of sense to fall back to Lviv and, for the moment, write off the eastern portion of Ukraine while the Ukrainians regroup and reorganize.

Once they lose Kyiv, the point will be to turn Ukraine into Afghanistan 2.0 for the Russians to the point that what happened to the Soviet Union happens to Russia — it collapses.

I think that’s something we really need to start thinking about — now that Putin has proven he’s bonkers enough to try to take Ukraine, there’s a real chance that things will boomerang on him and the next thing you now, we’re talking about a second Russian Revolution / civil war just as the United States is having it’s own civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

Only time will tell, of course. Good luck.

A Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Nightmare Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things do not seem to be going well for Putin in Ukraine. As such, my fear is, since he seems to be kind of bonkers, that he might use either a Russian version of a MOAB or some sort of low-grade nuclear weapon. Something really small, but would get the point across.

The hope would be, of course, to demoralize the Ukrainian populace to the point that they would just give up. But there are lots of reasons to think this won’t happen. First, I don’t know if the Russians even have such weaponry. Second, Putin may be bonkers, but he must know that the exact opposite will happen — dropping any sort of WMD on Ukraine — however small — would likely freak everyone out.

A lot rests on if Putin continues to be a “rational actor” or not. Is he bonkers? Has he lost it? He has several times recently spoken of nuclear weapons for this or that reason and if he really got desperate I suppose it’s possible he might use tactical nukes on Ukraine.

But, again, any use of nuclear weapons — be they low grade or tactical — would so upend the global political order that, well, lulz. We’re very much in the early days of this clusterfuck and a lot of things could go either way, depending on the vagaries of war.

We’re definitely fully locked in to the “Holy shit” point of this war and we’re only in the first few days. The longer this thing drags on, the more likely something really fucked up and unexpected might happen that escalates things significantly.

Anyway, only time will tell. It will be interesting to see how bonkers Putin ultimately turns out to be. If he tries to take all of Ukraine, then we will know that he really has lost his mind.

Why Kharkiv May Have So Many Troops Near It


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though there’s a specific reason why so many Russian troops are building up near Kharkiv. Here’s my hot take — the road to the Dnieper River goes through Kharkiv. So, the Russians plow through that part of Ukraine and then once they reach the river that bisects the middle of Ukraine, they make an assessment as to what happens next.

Here’s how I think things might work out:

I Was Right, Kinda


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, I was right about there being something of a Republican civil war because of Ukraine, with the MAGA base following the lead of Trump and the Republican Establishment wanting to support Ukraine.

And, yet, I suspect it’s never going to come up to the point of a “civil war.” I think there will just be a lot of tension between the two groups. Remember, Trump can always take his scrambled marbles — the base — and go home if the Establishment gets too frisky.

So, ultimately, what will happen is Republicans rather than have any civil war will simply ignore that they’re trying to square the circle in the first place. Trump, his toadies and the base will continue to suck Putin’s cock and the Republican Establishment will continue to support Ukraine against Russia. Because everything is dumb, both things will be true and Republicans won’t event acknowledge this existential conflict.

Is The West Prepared To Absorb 5 Million Ukrainian Refugees?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It looks as though Russia may go after not just the east of Ukraine, but all of it. If they did, in fact, do that, then there are estimates that as many as 5 million Ukrainians might flee that country.

Which, of course, raises the question — where the hell would that many people go?

The obvious answer is Canada. That country already has a sizable Ukrainian population and the addition of a few million more for such an underpopulated country would probably help their economy a great deal. Then, there is the US. This is a lot more problematic given how nativist the America First cocksuckers of MAGA and Fox News are these days.

But it’s not impossible to see a pretty massive migration of Ukrainians from Europe to North America. It could be, in fact, the biggest such forced migration since the end of WW2. Though one has to note that a lot of Hungarians fled to the West after the 1956 uprising there was crushed by the Soviets.

One issue that might soften the blow for the typical American is, of course, race. It’s a lot more difficult for the fucking racists of MAGA and Fox News to shoot blood out of their eyes over letting in a few million people if they’re white. A lot of them would not speak English, but that can be fixed soon enough.

Also greasing their entry into America would be a lot of the Ukrainians would be highly educated and highly trained. In fact, if you wanted to paint the rosiest possible picture of what might might happen if a few million Ukrainians fled to the US, one might suggest that they would really help the American economy in more ways than one.

Because they would be considered “white” by fucking racist cocksuckers on the far Right, if they started to take jobs that no one in America wanted to take as they built a new home in America then, well, maybe some of the nationalist pressure for us to become a Russian-style autocracy might ease. A little bit.

We’ll see.

The MAGA New Right Sure Is Chomping At The Bit To Start Political Violence, Aren’t They?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, my Traditionalist relatives have, on occasion, asked me if I forswear political violence. Which is both dumb and insulting. Of course I’m against political violence! Jesus Christ!

The fact that the MAGA New Right is chomping at the bit to start a civil war makes this question even more idiotic. Even a Traditionalist who has “tuned out” from politics should know by now that there are a number of conservative thought leaders who really, really, want an excuse to murder people like me in cold political blood.

So, instead of worrying about ME wanting political violence, I think my Traditionalist relatives need to get their own home in order. Or is that just “bogus?” For those of you who aren’t into debate nullification when you’re losing, just look at what’s going on with Canada’s trucker crisis.

That crisis is going to come to the US soon enough. And, as I understand it, March 3rd — for some reason — could be some sort of successor to January 6th. I don’t know the details, but that’s what I’m seeing on Twitter. This is a developing and potentially very unstable situation. It could be like January 6th, only much, much worse.

Anyway. We need to be aware that the MAGA New Right may very well force the issue. The question then will be is how receptive people are to fucking shit up when the MAGA New Right decides to see if they can bring down the government through a General Strike or some such. (Especially in the context of this potentially happening — and working — in Canada.)

And the craziest part of all of this is if they would just be peaceful and patient, they could get everything — and I mean everything — they wanted through peaceful political means. Everything is there. All they have to do is just not blow it all by starting a civil war.

And, yet, here we are.

I’m going back to the five novels I’m working on that no one in my family cares about — they won’t even read anything I write even when I ask them to!

‘Hysterical Doom Shit:’ Of Trump & Classified Documents



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It takes a lot more than it did for Trump to make me angry. And my Traditionalists relatives think I’m being “hysterical” for thinking Trump is going to run again — especially if he gets into serious legal trouble — so, meh. Their only red line is personal when it comes to Trump — and by personal, I mean me dead in a ditch at the hands of ICE. THEN, and only THEN they will get upset about what an autocrat Trump is.

Then I’ll be dead.

And I won’t be “hysterical” anymore because I’ll be dead.

Fuck that, by the way.

Anyway, the news that Trump did on a massive scale exactly what Hillary Clinton was accused of when it came to classified documents enrages me. Makes me white hot with rage. Makes me pop a gasket with rage. Makes me want to throw myself into the five novels that no one in my family cares about. (That was the point of writing the novels in the first place — to give myself some outlet for my center-of-the-sun-rage over the Trump Administration.)

What makes me so angry is every argument that my Traditionalists relatives would make to knee-jerk defend Trump because they hate my politics could be used to defend Hillary Clinton in 2016. But any argument that I make that works too well is “bogus.”

The thing that makes all of this worse is, in the end, Trump’s eating of classified documents, his flushing them down the toilet, will only last less than one news cycle. So, Hillary’s “but her emails” lasted for months and months and months and Trump doing far, far worse is just a blip on the media scene.

I do have one question — what, exactly, were the nature of the classified documents Trump wanted to keep? Was he stealing specific documents that had to do with Russia, Ukraine, the DPRK or the Saudis? If any of those nations were involved, well, that takes the controversy to the next level.

Then it will be promptly forgotten. Trump runs again, (“No he won’t,” I hear you say.) wins and I get to be hysterical and peddling doom shit again.

Oh well.