Tag: Fuck MAGA Fuck Trump

Of ‘The Patriot Party’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In a sense, the Republican Party is down low imploding. On one end of the spectrum, you have conservative NeverTrumpers openly talking about starting their own party. Meanwhile, MAGA hates the Republican Party so much that it wants to start its own “Patriot Party.”

It seems to me that the Patriot Party is more about the fire next time than it is anything going on right now. The goal of a “Patriot Party” would be that it would be an honest-to-God fascist party that would completely ignore any law or norm that got in the way of them obtaining and maintaining power.

But there’s an immediate problem with this. One is, if you slice the MAGA base from the Republican Party, then the rump Republican Party is far more likely to snap back to some semblance of being a “normal” party again.

At least for one election cycle.

The long-term consequences of a Patriot Party would be the United States would finally turn into the autocracy that MAGA wants it to be — and it would be, but for Trump being a total ding-dong and not an autocrat.

So, I guess in a sense, what I thought would happen — a civil war now, has just been punted down the road to sometime between 2023 and 2025. Or not. Trump could still lose his fucking mind and go transactional on Twitter between now and January 20 and somehow cause the United States to buckle into severe political violence.

All I can say is — fuck you, MAGA, you fucking cocksuckers.

A Second American Civil War Is Coming…But….


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States politically is running on fumes. And, all things being equal, we’re on the cusp of a civil war. But. There’s a big difference between MAGA wanting to murder liberals in cold blood in the abstract and actually doing it. And, now that Trump blew his golden opportunity to drive Blue States out of the Union, we’re in a very murky situation indeed.

Several different things are happening at the same time. Time is running out for Trump to such an extent that even if he started to actively goad Blue States to secede in some way, all Blue States have to do is wait out the clock. On January 20th, that’s it — Biden becomes POTUS and Trump’s best case is to fly to Alabama and try to get Red States to leave the Union en mass.

Now, I’m aware of the Jan 6th shenanigans that Republicans want to pull, but that gambit is extremely quixotic. Republicans don’t control the House and the Senate leadership has made it clear they’re not interested in anyone voting to replace Electors.

As such, again, in the abstract MAGA really wants to start killing liberals on the field of battle….but a civil war doesn’t just happen magically. You would need troops, a government, you name it. As it stands, MAGA are just sore losers who are triggered because they got their fee-fees hurt.

So, in that sense, the case could be made that we’re on the very edge of the beginning of a process that will ultimately lead to some sort of secession crisis. What MAGA is doing is significantly more serious than what happened in 2016 and we can only assume that the 2024 election situation will be even MORE serious than this 2020.

The crux of the issue is that because of existential problems in our political system, the United States is two different nations that are receding from each other at an alarming rate. On an abstract level, MAGA’s dream of America is my nightmare and vis-versa. MAGA wants a fascist white ethno state that is pretty much a clone of Russia. Or, to put it another, more poetic way, to “make America great again,” they want 1950s America with wifi and Disney+.

It’s still very possible that if there was some sort of political 9/11 that a civil war would break out in the United States sooner rather than later, and, yet, as I keep writing — Blue States are in a far better position than Red States to the point that Red States wanting a civil war is rather foolish in the extreme.

All I can figure out is Red State MAGA people are looking at what’s going on politically and assuming they could make short work of Blue State people for various reasons — including MAGA is a bunch of racist, misogynistic cocksucking fuck who are so wrapped up in their love of the Dear Leader that they have deluded themselves into thinking they can somehow just leave the Union without African Americans picking up arms to destroy them.

When it comes to a near-term civil war in the United States, it will be because Trump snaps at some point and goes transactional Twitter. But even then, it might be rolling political violence instead of an actual civil war. And, remember, Biden is going to become POTUS on January 20th, so, again, it grows very difficult for Trump to push Blue States out of the Union then turn around and take them over via some sort of MAGA Reconstruction.

Again — one can only conclude that while a Second American Civil War is likely to happen between now and, say, 2025-ish, for the time being we’ve been spared that tragedy. And if we aren’t, it will be specifically because Trump finally loses his fucking mind.

The Fate Of The Mueller Report in Post-Trump America



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the many examples of how short-sighted everything and everyone in the Trump Era has been is how suddenly we face the prospect of the full Mueller Report popping out once Biden is president.

Now, let me be clear — Trump is going to get away with all his crimes, no matter how big. There simply won’t be any political will to do anything about anything he’s done be it on a state or Federal level. There will be a lot of talk about New York State crimes, but in the end, even there, Trump’s crimes will go down the memory hole. In large part, this will happen because of significant threat of violence, if nothing else.

The only reason why I want the full Mueller Report released is it would be, in a sense, the final closure for the Trump Era. It would be a value free way of giving people like me some sense that we have, in fact, put Trump behind us for the time being.

Its release would be totally value free because Trump will be out of office and, as such, the MAGA cocksuckers on Twitter can simply shrug and say, “So what, he’s not president anymore.” But, at least, we’ll know the truth. Trump’s collusion with the Russians will be a modern day version of Iraq’s WMD — it will take 20 years for some people to admit the truth, but they finally will.

But I guess there’s a chance that we’ll never see the full Mueller Report for various political reasons. And, again, Trump is never, ever going to see justice for any crime he’s ever committed. He’ll be a former president and he probably will have pardoned himself, anyway.

And even the hint of State crimes being looked into in any real sense will likely lead to significant political violence. Though there is a wildcard — if Trump does, in fact, refuse to physically leave the White House, that might make people so angry that for a brief moment the political will do bring Trump to justice might, just might, exist.

‘9/10ths’ — Gaming Out Trump Refusing To Physically Leave The White House


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is he spit balls different ideas in a rather conspicuous manner. He telegraphs the different options he’s weighing so we all know well in advance different decisions he’s weighing.

Right now, he’s mulling simply not physically leaving the White House on January 20th, after specifically saying he would. Let’s game this out to see why he might do it.

Why He Might
Ratings
What better way to wrap up the Trump Show than a spectacular series finale, one that will be talked about for decades? He would finally get the ratings he’s always wanted.

“Stab in The Back” Martyrdom
Trump could use the imagery of him being frogwalked out of the Oval Office as the ultimate fuck you to the incoming Biden Administration and cause as much damage to the country as possible. Trump might see this is as a great way to kickstart his 2024 presidential bid.

Avoiding Prosecution
What better way to avoid any form of prosecution than to hold up in the White House and use the assurance of the State of New York not going after him as a condition for peacefully leaving? I’m really, really giving Trump too much credit here when it comes to abstract thought, but he might stumble into this logic out of desperation

Why He Might Not
Trump’s a Coward
I just can’t see Trump having it in him to put himself in physical harm. He’s always been just talk. For Trump to do something this crazy, he really would have had to have snapped after January 6th. I could see him doing such a thing in the context of going transactional on Twitter, but otherwise, he probably will just slink away on January 20th or have a big campaign rally somewhere symbolic.

Here’s something I wrote some time ago about this very scenario, but in a different context.

9/10ths
a story fragment of a possible near future
by Shelton Bumgarner

April, 2019

The eyes of the world were on the White House.

Just moments before, President Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States, had been convicted by 67 members of the Senate for a whole list of high crimes and misdemeanors. Trump had for weeks now been ranting on Gab about his case in the Senate, bouncing back and forth between threats to start a war with Iran or the DPRK and not-so-subtle hints that he might take his own life should he be convicted by the Senate.

And, now, at last, the moment of truth had arrived.

Trump legally, at least, was no longer president, but he had been oddly silent since the verdict had been announced with great fanfare from the well of the Senate. Trump’s conviction had come after months of investigations on the part of the now Democratic Congress. The length and breath of Trump’s malfeasance discovered by these hearings had rocked the nation to its very core. On more than one occasion, MAGA talking heads on cable news had been interrupted by astonishing breaking news that left them, for once, unable or unwilling to defend the president.

The hearings had ground on for months to such an extent that Trump’s approval had slowly drifted to the 20s and stayed there consistently. Trump’s support was now made up of the very rich and the very poor. Oddly, despite Trump’s near constant demands on Twitter for violence on the part of his supporters, little, if any was reported. Trump had grown so frustrated that he had all but abandoned Twitter at one point for the more receptive Gab social media platform. Though on more than one occasion Rudy Giuliani had made it very clear it was within the rights of the president to declare martial law if he deemed it in the best interests of the nation. More than one delegation of Senate Republicans had gone to the White House to explain to Trump that he was going to be convicted, no avail. Trump made it clear to them, in not so many words that his simply living in the White House made him president, a sentiment best expressed by the legal saw that, “Possession is 9/10ths of the law.”

Finally, a post to Gab came out: “My so-called ‘conviction’ is the work of the Deep State and as such illegitimate. I remain president.”

This set off a chain of events, the likes of which Americans had never seen. Suddenly, everyone on Twitter became a Constitutional scholar as everyone studied the exact wording of the Constitution as to what happens if the president is removed from office by the Senate. The wording is quite clear: he or she is no longer president and that’s it.

Nowhere in the Constitution did it explain what to do if the president simply decided to ignore the Senate. What’s more, nowhere in the Constitution did it state what to do with the nuclear launch codes should a president be removed from office and he refuse to accept the decision of the Senate.

The next few hours were chilling as they were surreal for millions of people not just in the United States but around the globe. The issue of Trump’s physical access to America’s nuclear launch codes was suddenly at the forefront of everyone’s mind. Though it was finally announced that while the nuclear football remained in Trump’s possession, Sec. of Defense Mattis had ordered the American armed forces to stand down for the duration of the crisis.

Trump, on Twitter, was as defiant and unhinged as usual.He threatened to kill himself. He threatened to start a nuclear war. He vowed to declare martial law.

The usual suspects on cable news did their best to spin all of this for Trump. As an anxious nation waited for the now former president to leave the White House, a cavalcade of former Republican Senators and Trump White House staffers attempted to make the former president’s case. Their final argument was that for the good of the country, Trump should be allowed to remain president, despite his lawful conviction by the Senate.

Things began to move rapidly at this point.

Vice President Pence was sworn in but Chief Justice Roberts in a dark, somber event in the Old Executive Building. Meanwhile, it was learned Trump had quietly replaced his Secret Service detail with a private security force that made it clear it was prepared to defend Trump until the bloody end.

At this point, two things happened. A final bipartisan delegation of Congressional leaders came to the White House grounds under the flag of truce. During the course of an hour-long meeting, Trump screamed at them that they had never supported him and the world would be better off if it just ended instead of allowed the forces of the Deep State to ruin America. He made it absolutely clear that he would never leave the Oval Office willingly.

With that, they left.

Next, a surreal, bizarre event, the FBI slowly began to surround the White House. There was much debate online and on TV about how long the nation should wait for Trump to leave the White House. CNN went so far as to do a deep dive into the exact amount of food the White House grounds might have available at any one moment.

Finally, shots rang out from the White House as the battle was joined. It took several hours but in the end, the FBI was finally able to secure the facility. Nearly a dozen personnel on both sides died during the course of the Battle of The White House.

In what would become ionic footage, Trump was quietly escorted from the White House grounds. He spent the remainder of his days ranting on Twitter and Gab that he was the rightful president.

The End.



Trump Era Final Days Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong when it comes to Trump, in large part because I give him way more political credit than he deserves. But, just for fun, let’s attempt to predict what may happen between now and January 20th.

The Pardons
The first thing I think we can know for sure is there are going to be a massive amount of pardons while Trump still has it within in power to do so. The first wave will be around Christmas. It will probably start as early as Dec 23. Or maybe we’ll get a heads up on Dec. 23rd that something is about to happen. But a staggering amount of pardons will happen Christmas Eve while everyone is too busy enjoying the holiday to notice. The next wave will probably happen at some point after January 6th when it starts to sink in to Trump that he is, in fact, going to leave office one way or another. It’s probably at some point after January 6th that Trump pardons himself.

The Special Counsels
I could see, at a minimum, two bogus Special Counsels being named — one for Hunter Biden and one for the 2020 Election. There could be a whole shitstorm surrounding the naming of these, especially if Trump has to find someone crazy to head Justice to get what he wants.

The Firings
While I think this is very possible, a lot depends on how much of a crackup Trump goes through post January 6th. If he really snaps, then I think Wray at FBI and Haspel at CIA could get fired and Trump toadies be named simply out of spite. And, in an effort to strike back at The Deep State, Trump could just begin to fire anyone he doesn’t like in the Intelligence Community or pretty much anywhere — specifically someone like Dr. Fouchi. (This would be very moot for a number of reasons, but it would make Trump feel better just to be able to do it.)

The Executive Orders
I could see Trump thinking up some pretty crazy Executive Orders on his way out the door, just to cause as much chaos as possible. The specific one I can think of off the top of my head is one fucking with the 14th Amendment’s birthright citizenship clause. He would do this for no other reason than to force SCOTUS to vote on it. Even if Biden rescinded it, he would have made his point.

The Congressional Elector Certification Clusterfuck
It’s looking as though for no other reason than he’s a spiteful crybaby, Trump could really lean on Republican Senators to vote for his last-ditch effort to overturn the election on January 6th. This is extremely quixotic for a number of reasons, but he would have proven his point. Also, there’s a good chance that Pence will attempt to nullify the whole thing by simply not doing his Constitutional duty. As I understand it, this would be very dumb because if he did that, then the statue says the certification at the state level by governors has precedence and fuck you Mike Pence.

The Transactional Tweets
It’s possible that after Trump is finally defeated on January 6th, that he will fucking snap in a pretty spectacular fashion. Remember, most of his ideas are simply far, far, far, far Right wetdreams that slowly work their way towards him via OANN. So, it’s at least possible that Trump will begin to actively either goad his followers into violence or to demand Red States convene snap Conventions to leave the Union. This would work pretty well in Mountain states, but in the South, this would lead only to a race war.

The White House Squatter
Laura Loomer is already suggesting Trump simply not physically leave the White House, so that’s definitely now a possibility. That would be a fitting way to wrap up Trump Era — everyone staring in horror as we have the Taking of the White House surrounded by MAGA cocksuckers.

Wildcards
There are a number of things I simply can’t predict. One is any number of “political 9/11s” that might pop out of nowhere that Trump might used to take “total control” and simply never leave office. Among them being wars with the DPRK or Iran or some sort of Oklahoma City type bombing somewhere for any reason. We also have an expectations problem ahead of us and the likelihood of significant violence will increase the closer we approach January 20th.

A Second American Civil War Won’t Just Magically Happen


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep getting a lot of pings on this Website from people living in the Usual Suspects of the “Lost Cause” — South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Texas to name a few. They seem really excited about my dystopian hellscape scenarios about a Second American Civil War.

But I suspect a lot of the interest in such a second American Civil War comes from the recent soft coup by 17 states at SCOTUS. I don’t think people really appricate how ingrained the concept of “the South shall rise again” is in the lives of the average Southerner. So, for a lot of good old boys, even the hint of a new CSA is just too much for their poor old minds to comprehend.

With that in mind, let’s think about how we get from where we are to where we would need to be for an actual civil war to happen.

One reason why I think that this is sort of the end of the beginning of a long-term drive towards a civil war is there just isn’t any armed force big enough to challenge the U.S. Military. The Proud Boys are a small, angry disorganized group of assholes. They might blow shit up or murder someone in cold blood, but they aren’t even really even a militia. So, Cooter in Mobile can lust after Yankee blood all he wants to, but as of right now, such bloodlust is extremely misguided.

It would make a lot more sense for Red States to drive Blue States out of the Union, THEN use the U.S. Military on THEM rather than Red States leave and have the U.S. Military crush them. That’s a prime example of what a ding-dong Trump is — if he was anywhere near the political genus that Maggie Haberman would have us believe, Trump would have done a Reichstag Fire falseflag around Election, taken “total control” driven Blue States to revolt then crushed them via the Insurrection Act.

As it stands, he’s pretty much just ranted on Twitter. In other words — he’s done jackshit. It’s truly ironic it’s specifically because Trump, as a person, is so bad at his job as an autocrat that the United States may have dodged an actual fighting civil war because Trump just can’t get his act together.

So, in a sense, all the good old boy boners about a civil war NOW makes no sense. But the passions that Trump’s soft coup attempt has unleashed gives a lot Neo-Confederates a lot of expectations about what might happen — that aren’t based in reality. They FEEL like a new civil war is about to happen, but only in the abstract. It makes them feel good to think, in the abstract, that they can leave the Union and murder as many liberals as possible in the process.

The Good Old Boys’ best bet right now for what they want sooner rather than later would be Trump finally losing his fucking mind and starting to rant on Twitter about how Red States MUST leave the Union immediately. Or, put another way, Trump would have to go transactional on Twitter in some way.

For the time being, however, it seems that Trump may cause a lot of mischief on his way out, but unless we have a “political 9/11” in the next few weeks, it’s going to be closer to 2024-2025 before the conditions are right for a Second Civil War.

The Monster Always Comes Back One Last Time


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For the time being, we can all sigh a huge sigh of relief. The Electoral College voted without a hitch and now Biden is a pretty huge leap closer to actually being sworn in.

The Dead Zone as documentary.

But as with any horror movie, the monster is probably going to come back one last time. We got our first sense of that just about when the Electoral College wrapped up voting — Bill Barr is leaving just before Christmas. As such, we now enter the most dangerous phase of the Trump Era to date. Trump has every reason to demand a dozen Special Counsels to look into every aspect of the “Deep State” his way out.

These Special Counsels would be given a huge, vague charge so they could go after every aspect of Biden even before he’s sworn in. They would be what was needed for the Republicans to impeach Biden the moment they won the House and took over in 2023.

But this is Trump we’re talking about. It’s very easy to imagine he being far more dumb and ham handed about it all. I could very well see him doing something directly against Biden himself — or Obama, or whomever — specifically for the purpose of destroying the United States so everything would be so fucked up that New York State wouldn’t have the ability to concentrate on him.

Or, put another way, between now and January 20th is the danger zone. Everything from Trump going insane in such a way that significant political violence begins in the United States to a wide array of completely batshit insane things that so destabilize the country that there could be a serious secession crisis the first 100 days of the Biden Administration.

The main issue right now is Trump simply won’t concede so that gives MAGA hope that somehow, someway, they can still win. It’s a pretty massive clusterfuck we find ourselves in because either MAGA “catches the car” and there’s a civil war for that reason, or they don’t and they start blowing shit up…which starts a civil war.

And so we go back to the main issue of the day — the fate of 300 million Americans and about 7 billion humans rests on Trump. Will he continue to simply be a very incompetent ding-dong, or will he finally summon the energy to bring the United States to its knees and potentially destroy not just the United States, but everything.

MAGA Seditionist Secessionist Grievances Elude Me


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really struggle to figure out the specific reasons why growing number of MAGA seditionists have decided that secession — and the resulting violence — is their only course of action.

The closest reason I can think of is their devotion to their ding-dong Dear Leader is so absolute that they believe all his fraud claims and would rather destroy the Union than allow Biden to become president. But here’s the thing — this is still very poorly thought out and not very concrete.

At least with the 1860 secessionist crisis, there was a concrete fear that the South had — by definition, Lincoln being president would lead to first a retrenchment of slave power and then its ultimate destruction. That, at least, has some logic to it.

But to have such absolute support for just one person that you would rather leave the Union than accept Biden is legitimately POTUS now is rather curious. It still seems like a very abstract fear. Where is all this passion — even if it’s empty for the time being — coming from? From my conversations with conservatives, it seems it boils down to an absolute fear of the abstract concept of cancel culture. This is the idea that just by being conservative, a person risk having their lives ruined by liberal-progressive “cancel culture.” This is a really big deal for MAGA and Trump talks about it all the time.

I would suggest, however, that the real origin of our current clusterfuck is the end of the American dream for white blue collar men without a college education. In short — they can’t get laid. They feel left behind because not only can they not afford to get married and have kids, but they also feel that the growing economic power of women — with its associated sexual agency — makes finding a mate more difficult in the first place. The racism and willful ignorance springs from that, as well.

While it’s way too late, I’ll tell you how we could have fixed this problem — national service for all 18 year olds. If, say, AmeriCorps had been true national service and we had 30 or so years of all 18 year olds across the country being forced to hang out with each other for 18 months a lot of our problems would have been preemptively solved.

But’s too late now.

The damage is done. We’re just one political 9/11 event away from the entire Union States buckling and Blue and Red states actually beginning to attack each other on the battlefield.

The question now, of course, is we simply be locked in political neutral for a few years until the passions die down or will we not be that lucky.

Second American Civil War: The Electoral College Voting Today & The Prospect Of A ‘Political 9/11’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Today is one of a few days that we kinda know would be a prime moment for the “political 9/11” I keep worrying about. But, to date, I’ve been pretty much totally wrong. I’ve been wrong for number of reasons, among them Trump is just a ding-dong not an autocrat and there’s just not been any stomach in seditionist quarters to actually do the things necessary to provoke a secessionist crisis.

But today — along with January 6th — are obvious days where our current eerie political moment could change dramatically. All that would have to happen is a lot of faithless Electors throwing the election to Trump suddenly. Or, say, Michigan militia groups manage to hurt Electors so they couldn’t even vote.

Or, put another way — if the voting of Electoral College was paused or disrupted because of violence or the threat of violence, that, in itself, might be the crisis necessary to push us into a secessionist crisis. My point is — the American political system is so out of whack, so fragile right now that any extra stress on it will lead to its collapse.

One reason why I know America is in deep trouble is we’ve reached the point when some pretty Far Right concepts are now hurtling towards mainstream acceptance in the Republican Party. The surreal part of all of this is secessionists don’t have any concreate reasons for leaving the Union other than they hate liberal-progressives and woke cancel culture. That’s it. I guess you could say they love the Dear Leader so much they would rather destroy the country than risk living under a Biden Administration, but I still don’t know what, exactly, would be so bad about a Biden Administration that it would be worth destroying the country MAGA says they want to make great again.

And, as I’ve said, MAGA secessionists are completely oblivious about how, in practical terms, they might have some serious problems leaving the Union in the first place. Sure, there are about 15 small population, homogenous states in the center of the country that could probably make a good show of leaving the Union, but that’s it.

I can’t think of a single state of the old CSA that could make a clean break of it. Take Georgia for instance. Not only is Atlanta a major metropolitan area now, but the African American community would rather take up arms against any secessionists than let the state leave the Union for pretty obvious racist reasons.

As such, while I could see any Second American Civil War being a lot longer and a lot bloodier than MAGA could ever possibly imagine — the end result would be the same — they would fucking lose.

I really went on a tangent there. Back to the point — if we can get past today without a “political 9/11” then we’re in the clear until January 6th. If we get pass the Congressional Certification Crisis, then we have the Trump Goes Insane Crisis for much of January.

And, in the end, it could be Trump going insane that leads to the Union collapsing. If Trump goes transactional on Twitter and starts ranting about how Trumplandia needs to be founded, then, well, I guess we’ll have to see how many people take Trump both literally and seriously.

Second American Civil War: A Secession Crisis Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love scenarios. In fact, that’s pretty much how I spend all my mental free time — thinking up elaborate scenarios and then playing them through in my mind. So, let’s think about what a secession crisis in modern America would look like. Hopefully, we’ll never have to find out how close I get.

The future is not bright.

The reason why this scenario is so difficult to game out right now is I can’t figure out if it will be Blue States leaving or Red States leaving. It really depends on Trump at this point.

He pretty much has the fate of not just the United States, but all of humanity in his tiny, tiny hands — without even really realizing it. The moment he decides to take “total control” or he takes up the cause of Red States leaving the Union as we grow closer to January 20th, the closer we grow to a secession crisis that would cause the country to implode.

If the United States imploded at this point — 2020 would be up there with 1453, 1789 and 1940 as seminal turning points in human history. But, let’s run the scenario with the assumption that it’s Red states, not Blue states that decide to leave the Union.

First, there would have to be some sort of catalyst. It could be anything. From Trump “joking” on Twitter that Red states should leave the Union to a major Red (or Blue) state figure being murdered or even just some sort of abrupt, sudden and unexpected event that causes Red States to decide they can’t abide by liberal-progressive cancel culture anymore. (Ugh.)

If there was a secession crisis, it would happen really fast. Like, all at once. at least 17 Red States would likely leave the Union in one fell swoop in snap Conventions. That would create a lot of momentum for other Red states to pick a side.

Now, here’s where things get tricky for would be Neo-Confederates. While it’s pretty easy for the lily white central Red states to bounce, when, say South Carolina, or Alabama, or Tennessee — or, even, for that matter Texas — get it in their head to leave the Union the African American community in these states will flip the fuck out.

So, it would likely go something like this — a huge swath of states in the sparsely populated central part of the lower 48 would leave cleanly. This would prompt the good old boys in the South to get REALLY EXCITED and see visions of the South “rising again.” And then…they hit a political brick wall: black people.

As such, the South would be the first place where the passions of a modern day secession crisis would explode into massive violence — maybe even a race war. Some states, like Florida and Virginia (and maybe even Texas) wouldn’t survive. (At least in my opinion.) They would implode. Virginia into Red rural counties and Blue urban areas, Florida into the panhandle, the middle peninsula and the south and Texas would probably just have its own internal civil war as communities with mixed Red and Blue exploded into violence.

Around this same time, the domestic political refugees would begin to bounce around the imploding Union at an alarming rate. There’s even a possibility that the U.S. Military itself would implode into Red and Blue at this point. And passions would get so whipped up that some pretty astonishing things would happen, like New York City declare itself a free state or something.

This would all happen really, really fast. No more than two weeks total. Here’s another point where I just can’t figure out things — would all of this happen in, say, early January when Trump finally snaps at the prospect of going to prison in New York State, or does it happen closer to January 20th?

Or does it not happen at all?

As I’ve written before, while all the conditions for all of this exist, Trump, to date, has proven himself all talk. It’s gotten to the point where it’s somewhat eerie. I hate the idea of any type of violence at all, and even I am astonished Trump hasn’t taken the final steps necessary to destroy the country.

There are some pretty huge wildcards. One, is suddenly strike by Iran either against Israel or somewhere domestically in the United States (or both.) Or the DPRK might rattle its saber just enough to give Trump an excuse to start a major regional war so he can simply use that as a distraction to stay in power. (Though I doubt that gambit would work.)

But remember, if the United States implodes, the entire post-WW2 liberal order implodes, too, and well, World War 3 starts as a number of regional wars break out. If you throw in a series of limited nuclear exchanges, as many as 1 billion people might die because white working class men in Red States can’t afford to get married and have kids.

I’m wrong all the time. I hope I’m wrong this time, too.