What The Fuck Is Wrong With The USA?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All I can say is, it definitely seems as though we’re careening towards a very, very dark future. As I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once and it definitely SEEMS as though in late 2024, early 2025, we’re going to reach the “all at once” part of that particular rule of thumb.


It’s just all very sad. All great empires must come to an end and so, lulz, either America somehow manages to punt our problems down the road or there’s some sort of Black Swan event that saves us — otherwise, yikes, we’re going to implode.

We’re going to turn into an America First autocracy and the post-WW2 liberal world order is going to collapse. Then, oh Lort. Only the good Lawd knows what will happen then.

It just seems very possible that the next few years could be very, very bumpy in ways that we simply can’t predict or control. Trump is a one-person chaos agent and, as such, pretty much no matter what, he is going to put us to the test.

Assessing The Next 12 Months

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of what might happen in the next year could be rather profound in hindsight. The issue first and foremost that no one can predict the future. So, I can write all dystopian hellscape verbiage I want, in the end, only the good Lort knows for sure what is going to happen.

Now, in January of 2024, it definitely SEEMS as though Trump is either going to win and turn us into a very unstable autocracy, or he is going to lose and demand a National Divorce to save his sorry ass on a personal basis.

But there is always a chance that either Trump loses and just slinks off into oblivion, or some Black Swan event happens that no one can predict that gives us an off ramp from a very dark future that none of us can now predict.

And, yet, we have to take seriously at least the possibility that some fucked up shit is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025. It could very well be that the United States as we current conceive of it will no longer exist in a year. It could be that we either are just about to transition into a full-blown MAGA autocracy, or we’re just about to depose Tyrant Trump.

I am growing more and more nervous that because of where I live, I may become some sort of domestic political refugee in about a year. That I will be forced out of my home and forced to move somewhere that better fits my center-Left political views.

But at the moment, that’s kind of out there. It could be that lulz, none of that happens and we’ll somehow — somehow — punt our political and social problems down the road another four years.

We Live In Strange Times

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are so fucked up at the moment, that it would be nice if Trump got involved in your run-of-the-mill sex scandal. It’s not like it would change anything. He would still be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS.

But at least we would have some…entertainment…for a few days or weeks till things go sorted out.

It definitely seems as though ding-dong Trump is, at the moment, an immutable force of American political history. He’s going to either lose and start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce, or win and either transition us into an autocracy or win and cause a revolution on the part of blues which, in turn, causes a civil war by Reds.

All because white Christian (men) are uneasy about the browning of America and the rise of women having more reproductive and economic agency.

Vibe Shift: Culture, Like Nature, Abhors A Vacuum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something very curious is going on with Western culture at the moment. And that curious thing is…nothing. There’s just nothing much going on at the moment. There are lot of macro trends that are heading towards something, but there’s just not a lot going on right now.

There are a lot of ways to look at situation.

One is, this is just the usual winter lull in the year. Another is, culture is kind of in a holding pattern until the election. Or, you could say, once the AI generated Toy Story pops out in a few months, and it will be away we go!

But think about it.

For the last 20-odd years, people have dressed pretty much the same. We’ve listened to music that is pretty much the same — with a few notable exceptions. Everything has just been a number of apps maturing in popularity until some — like Facebook — seem like virtual malls. (Not a lot going on and those people who do use them are old people getting their steps in.)

I do think that AI and the Fourth Turning might be two things that upend the rather sedate cultural world we live in at the moment. And it might be that Apple’s Vision Pro is the first thing that REALLY throws everything for a loop. But even that, I think, has a few more years before people will actually want to wear them.

Not until XR glasses are indistinguishable from those wrap around sunglasses that all those angry MAGA chodes wear will they become popular.

‘Sucker Punch’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is only one way that Blues might actually start a civil war (really a revolution, given their collective temperament,) and that is if it was clear Trump had stolen the 2024 election.

I have grown to believe this is the least likely of the various possible scenarios because Trump is so dumb and lazy that he’s more likely to either win outright or lose outright and THEN start a civil war. Either by losing and demanding a National Divorce or by WINNING, then being such a tyrant that he is deposed somehow then Red States leave the Union.

But, yeah, I suppose if he steals the 2024 election that Blues might, rather than “leave the Union” simply deny that he’s POTUS in the first place and things start to go crazy when there’s, like, some sort of General Strike but because the U.S. Military doesn’t know what to do…wow…just wow.

All of my existing thoughts about such a scenario stand, though. What California does would be key — they would be the arsenal of American Democracy in any civil war / revolution because of their population and economy.

I have to say, in any fair fight between Blue and Red, the forces of American Democracy (Blues) definitely SEEM like they could kick the asses of tyrannical fascists MAGA Reds. That doesn’t mean, of course, that any such civil war/ revolution wouldn’t draaaaaaaaaaaaaag out for years, leaving America looking like Afghanistan by the time everything go sorted out.

I’ve written about all of this — and changed my mind some of the years — a great deal over the last four or five years. And, in general, I think first of all, it won’t happen and second of all if it does it will suck. There will be no narrative and the whole thing will be value free.

‘An Air of Inevitability’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future — no one can. But there very much is an air of inevitability at this point about Something Bad happening in the United States in late 2024, early 2025.

ALEXANDRIA, VA – JANUARY 9: View of empty shelves at a local Giant supermarket as the omicron covid variant causes widespread supply chain delays resulting in empty shelves in many food markets on January 9, 2022 in Alexandria, Virginia. Credit: mpi34/MwdiaPunch /IPX

What that “bad thing” will be, I don’t know.

But whatever it is, it will be so bad that some pretty basic, existential things could be thrown up in the air or put into question. I find myself going to the grocery store these days and asking myself, “What am I going to do when there’s no food here during a revolution / civil war?”

It would make a lot of sense that the similar bare shelves that we saw during the pandemic might return the moment it’s clear the US is on the cusp of buckling one way or another — for whatever reason.

That, of course, sounds very hysterical. And it probably is. Like I said, I can’t predict the future.

Trump Isn’t Hitler. He’s Pol Pot

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While it’s easy to compare Trump to Hitler — and the two men do share a lot in common — I would suggest someone else to compare him to: Pol Pot. The reason why I say this is, if the worst happens, I could totally see Trump demanding the cities be emptied for some sort of American Killing Fields.

Pol Pot

Or maybe it wouldn’t be Trump but someone vaguly acting in his name would would do it.

But the point remains — Pol Pot hated a lot of the same types of people that Trump and his movement hates.

If things get really, really bad in the USA as it transitions to Trumplandia…oh boy.

America Is So Fucked Up Right Now

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you — America is seriously fucked up at the moment. And it’s only going to get worse. There is a chance, of course, that some Black Swan event will allow us to take an off ramp — like what happened in 2020 — and all our structural problems will be punted down the road another four years.

The issue is that the Republican Party is so radical now — and so resistant to changing its policies — that, by definition, the next Republican president we have will be a fascist autocrat. The only question, at this point, is how his or her specific personality will influence policy.

It will be very curious to see how, exactly, that works out. There are severe structural problems in the American political system so someone like Trump can bubble up to the surface.

No, America Isn’t ‘Too Big’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After Trump won in 2016, I saw a — I think — New York Magazine article that was one big liberal “cope” in which they proposed America was “too big.” This was one way of them slyly suggesting what we would now call a “National Divorce.”

To this date, the idea of a National Divorce or anything suggesting the USA should split up REALLY MAKES ME ANGRY. I will admit that in the past, I have toyed, in the abstract, with the idea of Blue States leaving the Union. But when I realized that is just not what Blues would do — if anything like that is going to happen, it’s going to be more of a revolution than a National Divorce — I stopped even thinking such a dumb idea might have merit.

Which brings up the idea of why Red States might be willing to leave the Union.

Well, I live in the South and there is a pretty potent race memory among white Southerners when it comes to the Confederate States of America. To the point that at least one well-educated conservative I know pretty much at this point supports a National Divorce — if it comes to that — because of “vibes.”

And, really, that is what is eating away at the foundation of the United States at the moment — vibes, especially from the Right. The Right gets soooo worked up about how bad COVID lockdown protocols were, then they rest their entire indictment of the Biden Administration on…you guessed it…vibes.

As I’ve written before, there are two ways we have an actual civil war. One is Trump loses and states, starting with Texas, leave the Union to “protect” him from going to jail. Second way is Trump wins, he goes “full tyrant” and things get so absolutely bad that a number of Red States leave the Union because they love that idiotic, malignant ding-dong so much.

Well, When It Comes To This Novel I’m Assuming Nothing TOO Bad Will Happen In Late 2024, Early 2025 In America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. If all goes according to plan, I’m going to start to query my novel in some capacity in late 2024, and MAYBE as late as early 2025. As such, I’m working on the assumption that the country will be stable enough for that to be a viable option.

So, I may write a lot about The End Times for the USA, but in a practical sense, I’m totally ignoring that possibility. I am doing this because, as I keep saying, all my “hysterical doom shit” is simply me trying to make my abstract fears concrete.

I just don’t know if The Fourth Turning is really going to happen. In fact, I generally don’t think it will. I do think that Trump is probably — at this point at least — win the 2024 election and 2025 could be mass chaos. And, yet, if enough smug Twitter liberals leave the country on their second passport…meh. Maybe that will mean people will be more interesting in read a novel that is part of a six novel project that is pretty much just one long screed against extremism (using subtext.)

Or not. Who knows. All I know is I’m pressing forward with this novel, even though there is definitely a part of me that is….concerned…about the next 18 months and beyond.