by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
The conditions are there for our long Trump nightmare to end. Sorta. I say this knowing full well that the election is eons away in political terms and Trump is unlikely to go peacefully, if at all.
But lets do a quick run through of why it’s at least _possible_ Trump may find the obstacles to re-election insurmountable.
People Really Want To Vote
This, if nothing else, should concern Team Trump. The Trump strategy is to so rile up the base, make them so absolute in their devotion to him, that on election day they will simply have the sheer numbers in real terms to get him over the line. This is a risky strategy because while you’re so busy thinking about the base, you ignore how angry you’re making the majority of everyone else.
It Appears The Economy Is Slowing
This is probably the most significant threat. While his base would not care if he started a nuclear war, 60% of the electorate might. And for a lot of those people who generally don’t care about politics, if a recession hits between now and November 2020, they might begin to take notice.
The Mood Of The Country Is Shifting
This is the most nebulous of metrics. The only thing I can compare it to is the how different the early Carter Administration was to the later Carter Administration. A president sets the tone of his era. As such, by the third year in office, America is a reflection of him. As I understand it, this is not going well for Trump. The very things Trump harps on — immigration and free trade — people are beginning to disagree with him on. So, if anything, that’s a sign that his “base first” strategy is not working the way he may have thought.
Now, I still believe Trump is going to win re-election with absolute certainty. The reason I say this is: populists don’t lose. Add to this Trump will be a caged animal at any hint he might lose and I just don’t see him going down without a fight so angry, so politically damaging that he may leave a historically bad taste in everyone’s minds. Here’s why I just don’t see him losing, despite signs that he might.
The Entire System Protects A Presidential Incumbent.
While there used to be an ebb and flow to presidential history, that is not the case anymore. Since Bill Clinton, if you are elected, you stay in office for 8 years. So, while Trump is historically bad at his job, I just don’t see him losing. While Republicans will spooge their pants, I would suggest they temper that sentiment. Second terms are historically bad for presidents. Given what a bad president Trump is, there’s a real chance that having escaped impeachment his first term, he may not be so lucky in his second. Also, it takes time for leaders to bubble up in the opposition. So by the time Trump’s six years in, there’s a real chance he may finally have met his match. I think it should be Jon Stewart, but that’s just me.
Trump Cheats
I think this is the most dangerous aspect of all of this. Trump is such a fucking drama queen that he will do anything — anything — to stay in office. He is so selfish that he will be willing to bring the entire country down with him if need be. Some of the crazy things I could see him doing are start a war, any war. Go full Nazi. I could see him suspending the election itself should there be a major terrorist attack at any point within three months of it. And, really, the absolute worst of scenario is Trump goes after individual Electors themselves in an attempt to bully them into being faithless. Really, all he needs is just enough of them to be faithless to throw the election into the House.
The Russians & Plutocrats
This is the wildcard. I don’t see either the Russians or the plutocrats who love those sweet, sweet tax cuts allowing Trump to lose. Period. Both of these parties have way too much of a vested interest in Trump to let him be forced out of off. Now if it becomes pretty obvious that Trump lost the election and yet he mysteriously wins the election, we’re in uncharted territory. It would tear the country apart in a way not seen since the Civil War. And, since possession is 9/10th of the law, even if by the time the Electoral College is set to vote it’s been established that the Russians hacked the election — again — I just don’t see Republicans caring. Trump will stay president and after a few months of people being upset we’ll go back to being unhappy. We’ll be told that all the proof of Russian hacking is “fake news” and, besides, the economy is doing well. (Until it isn’t, of course.) There’s always a small chance that if it is absolutely proven that the election was hacked that Electors might go rogue. That, in itself, of course, would cause chaos. Which, of course, is what the Russians want in the first place.
So, Trump’s going to win re-election. All I can say is vote. Vote. Organize. Participate politically as best you can. I do think that if Trump wins re-election that he’s such a horrible person and president that he’s likely to be impeached exclusively for things he did while in office in his second term.
In 2024, of course, the issue will be Trump’s “legacy.” I really have no hope that we’ll ever get rid of Republican presidents for the next 20 years. It won’t be until the youngest of the Baby Boomers begin to die off that things will change. At about the same point the browning of America will kick in and things will begin to change. For the time being, however, we’re screwed.
