by Shelt Garner
Let me get one thing out of the way: I hate violence and am in no way advocating civil war. (Never thought I’d write that.) But I’m aware that I’m beginning to drift towards pretty much saying, “Welp, it’s going to be autocracy or civil war, so…” But that’s very much an abstract, rhetorical stance. I would much rather we just punt this problem down the road an have neither autocracy nor civil war.
I’m just worried we won’t have that choice anymore.
To put things in historical perspective, this was 1861 not 2021 and you were a Northerner given the stark choice of political subservience to Slave Power for the foreseeable future or throwing your lot with breaking an egg to end the division in the country once and for all, you would at least have pause for thought about which option.
One last thing before I continue — even if Cyber Ninjas manage to pull a Trump victory out of their butts in Arizona, there’s every reason to believe that it will only result in a collective shrug. Trump will run around, screaming at the top of his lungs that he’s really POTUS…but it will remain nothing more than a talking point of MAGA cocksuckers who will add it to yet another way to “own the libs” when fighting with Twitter liberals. So, for what I’m about to sketch out to happen, Trump would have to lean into his cult of personality. And, to date, Trump has proven himself to be so fucking lazy that he didn’t even use basic autocratic techniques in 2020 to steal an easily stealable election.
Having said all that, let’s begin.
As I understand it, the clusterfuck shame recount of Arizona votes by Cyber Ninjas is going to wrap up in mind-May sometime. So, for the sake of argument, let’s say the “prove” that Trump “won” the state. What happens? Well, it’s difficult to know for sure. There are plenty of concrete things Trump COULD DO, but he’s soooooo fucking lazy and stupid that his natural inclination will be just to run around the country screaming at the top of his lungs that he’s really POTUS.
It could go either way.
It’s very easy to imagine that there will be rumblings of “nullifying” the Biden Administration on a state level in states like Oklahoma, Montana, Iowa, Arizona, Utah, North and South Dakota and Kansas. But it could be just rumbling. The idea of secession may just remain mental masturbation for far Right Wing talk radio and that’s it. In real terms, talk of “nullification” or “secession” will be just that — talk.
And, really, the only way I could see Trump even becoming all that much of an issue is there is a dynamic similar to January 6th that takes place, only on a national scale: Trump’s wink wink nudge nudge behavior about him really being POTUS is taken seriously and literally by the state legislatures of the states I mentioned and they first say they’re not going to recognize Biden as POTUS then before you know it, they’re calling state conventions to leave the Union unilaterally. If it happened, it would likely happen so fast that any secession crisis would be in full swing by July 4th.
Those are the easy states because they’re pretty much just white people and their populations are small enough that if they collective decided to YOLO it that they could get a lot farther than you might think.
The problem for all involved, of course, is once the Secession Crisis really gained momentum, Trump could then do what he always does and just be an avatar. He would get so fucking excited that he might be POTUS again that he would say and do things with total disregard for the consequences.
It would be when bigger states like Michigan, Indiana and Ohio started to want to leave the Union that big, big problems begin. And, of course, there would be the problem of Portland being potentially attacked by the rest of Oregon. Once we got this far, then you have the issue of the South.
There’s just no way to imagine a situation where African Americans in the South would just lulz any attempt at secession on the part of the old CSA. This whole thing would be a setup for a race war of historic proportions.
At this point, some cold hard facts would begin to sink in Trumplandia. One, the economies of their most secure states are very small as are their populations. Their big states would be extremely unstable because of African Americans probably being in open revolt. And, really, if there was a Second Civil War, there would be no assurances that things would ever be put back together again.
The United States could be balkanized into rump USA and Trumplandia and that would be that. A lot would depend on if California decided to stay and fight or if it took the broader secession crisis to leave as well. I have no idea what would happen.
Anyway, that’s what I got right now. I generally believe this dystopian nightmare, if is to happen, will happen in the 2024-2025 timeframe because of MAGA Congress nullifying Biden’s re-election. But, who knows, maybe Trump will get his wish to destroying the United States sooner than I expected.
Hopefully, it’s all going to be a big dud.