Everything Is So Dumb

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you folks. I’m of an age where I so jaded that I automatically assume that anything that seems too good be true — is. But you just try to be the best person you can be, I suppose.

I look at what’s going on with American politics these days and I can’t help but be alarmed that my predictions of the United States having the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025 will come true. And here I am, trying to get my first novel sold.

But, lulz, nothing matters.

The novel is getting better by leaps and bounds. At the moment at least, I feel like I have a pretty good handle on how to step up the pace when it comes to writing the second draft. I say this all the time and then I reach a crucial point where everything falls apart and I have to pick up the peices.

But, who knows, maybe this time things will work out and I will get back on track to querying as early as this fall, no latter than about a year from now.

Benghazi! 2.0: Gird Your Loins For A Very Dumb Investigation Into Hunter Biden By House Republicans

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Anyone who doesn’t think House Republicans are going to wallow in some pretty stupid shit for the next two years is a fool. They don’t care that they’re going to massively self-own by overreaching. That’s not the point. The point is to suck their own cocks in an effort to stroke the MAGA base.

The MAGA base lives in its own la la land to the point that some pretty stupid shit is going to be investigated to such an extent that Republicans are going to do serious political damage to themselves — and the country as a whole. But the United States isn’t a democracy anymore, but rather an “anocracy” so, this is it — the final countdown.

It’s at least possible that Trump will win the 2024 nomination and in 2024 the administration of elections will be corrupted by MAGA cocksuckers AND there could be real political violence.

So, lulz, it doesn’t matter, in real terms, what House Republicans do. They are going to impeach a lot — A LOT — of people in the Biden Administration and they’re just going to wallow in Hunter Biden to the point that it will be lodged in the average voter’s mind like BENGHAZI! (Which is the point.)

All I can say is — fuck MAGA Republicans.

Red October: ‘Woke War III’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck is going on with this sudden surge of Russian propaganda coming from Silicon Valley Tech Bros? It’s like they all agreed, all at once, to en masse become Fifth Columnists and Fellow Travelers of the Russians.

I get much of the sentiment that these Tech Bros espouse. They look at the cold hard metrics and say that Ukraine isn’t worth risking WW3 for. I find this dubious, however, because what do they expect to happen if we don’t support Ukraine? That Russia won’t see this as weakness and turn around and go after the Baltics? Estonia has a huge Russian population and it definitely would be the prime target for Russia if it was able to crush Ukraine because the West listened to the Russian Fellow Travelers of Silicon Valley.

In fact, they have begun to deride the war in Ukraine as “Woke War III.” Which doesn’t put them in a very good light because what are they trying to say — that WW1 and WW2 were “woke?”

All this has me thinking about how, even though it’s obviously astrology for dudes that the book The Fourth Turning definitely continues to have an eerie relevancy as we careen towards 2025. The very ideas that that book talks about — how in the Third Turning, people forget what war was like and why it was fought to begin with — definitely seems to have some meaning in today’s political world.

The alarming thing is, of course, that all of this is happening in the context of a very possible Counter-Revolution in the United States as Republicans take control of at least the House, if not the Senate too in November. With Republicans in control of Congress in 2023, there’s every reason to believe every moment they’re not impeaching Biden or trying to hold the social safety net hostage they’re going to be doing everything in their power to prevent the US from helping Ukraine.

So, it definitely seems as though we’re on the cusp of a very, very turbulent moment in our nation’s history. It’s going to happen no matter what, obviously, but if the fucking fascist Republicans take the House in November, that is only going to accelerate a very, very dark trend.

What’s With All The Russian Propaganda On Twitter These Days?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a Very Online person and just in the last few days — maybe 24 hours even — I’ve seen a huge uptick in my exposure to bullshit Russian propaganda about Ukraine. It could be that Twitter has tweaked it’s interface a little bit so I see more Right wing echo chamber bullshit.

Which, in an ideal world, would be good because it would force me to leave my own center-Left echochamber. But what I’m seeing on Ukraine just pisses me off and I mute the person so I don’t have to tolerate it anymore.

If what I’m seeing on Twitter from the Right wing echo chamber is any indication of what is being said on the other end of the political spectrum about Ukraine….oh boy.

The MAGA Right is all-in being appeasers and apologists for the Russians. No good will come of this. If, God forbid, the Republicans take control of the House, then every moment it’s not impeaching someone in the Biden Administration for some bullshit reason it will be figuring out ways to stymie any continued military support of the Ukrainians.

Anyway, things are weirdly dark politically in the United States right now and are bound to only get better as we approach a potential “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025.

The Appeasement Sentiment Of Tech Bros Is Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I suppose it’s been so long since we had to fight fascism that the Smartest Guys In The Room think more about the cold, hard metrics of what’s going on in Ukraine with the Russians as opposed to what is just and right.

While they’re all obviously far more successful than me and probably a lot smarter, Tech Bros continue to come across as appeasers. They want Ukraine to just give up and let Putin take at least 20% of the land if not more. And, really, using Tech Bro logic, the United States should just become Fortress America, gut the social safety net and make only the Poors pay taxes because they’re rubes who don’t realize taxation is theft.

It’s all very annoying.

It’s annoying because Tech Bros should know better. They should realize that sometimes in global affairs, you have to take a stand against tyranny even if it comes at a cost.

And it was, after all, Russia who invaded Ukraine. They started and just because Ukraine is going on the offensive, doesn’t mean the United States should just throw up its hands and give up. Yes, the risk of nuclear war has increased of late, but who’s to say if we don’t support Ukraine that Putin might not go after the Baltics next, and then where are we?

We definitely would have a WW3, then, because NATO would get involved. So, there is no easy solution to what’s going on with Ukraine and Russia. The reliance on cold, hard metrics that serves Tech Bros so well, falls apart when you’re dealing with geopolitics.

Are The Russians About To Nuke Ukraine?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While there are some alarming signs that something is brewing, I find the idea that the Russians would actually use nukes of any sort on Ukraine very dubious. Yes, a few of Russia’s close allies have told their citizens to get out of Ukraine, but that could mean anything. It doesn’t mean that something as dire as the use of tactical nukes against Ukraine by the Russians is imminent.

If the Russians did use tactical nukes on Ukraine, what would that look like?

I am not an expert, but just a back of the envelope scenario would suggest that if Russia was going to go through the trouble of breaking a 75 year taboo against the use of nukes of any sort, they would probably strike Kyiv pretty hard in an effort to decapitate the Ukrainian government. You could make the argument that what might happen is this: Russia nukes Kyiv a few times and then the Belarusian army would swoop in and take control of the city, demanding the Ukrainians sue for peace.

Also, logically, they would use a number of tactical nukes up and down the existing front line in an effort to soften it up. And, the Russians would likely, while they were at it, strike a number of other major cities across Ukraine in an effort to get their point across.

The use of any WMD by the Russians would probably start WW3 because it would set off a cascading series of events where other simmering hotspots across the globe would flair up rather dramatically.

If this all happened before the 2022 midterms, it could really change the political dynamic going into November in a rather dramatic fashion. There would be a “rally around the flag” type thing, which would probably help Biden’s poll numbers significantly.

Anyway, I don’t think we have anything to worry about.

NARAlago Conspiracy Theories: What’s Buried With Ivana Trump?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just do not believe in conspiracy theories. They’re just not my thing. I generally believe that most real conspiracies are already known or they’re just a bunch of bullshit in the form of being the last refuge of the intellectually dishonest. But, just for the sake of argument, let’s think about some of the NARAlago conspiracies theories that have sprung up since the FBI snatched back a bunch of Top Secret files that Trump stole.

The first issue to remember is, of course, that Trump is above the law and there’s just no law he can possibly break at this point that would see him in front of a judge. Any damage he might suffer is going to be political in nature and even then, it will be on the edges. The number of people who have any sort of open mind about Trump at this point is so low as to be negligible.

Trump being a lecherous lying racist traitor is so baked into the cake that, lulz, he’s probably going to become president again — even without cheating. Though, of course, he will anyway because it’s his nature.

So, with that in mind, let’s go through some conspiracy theories.

Trump used the LIV golf tournament as a cover to give the Saudi’s secrets
At least there is some logic to this one. It seems within reason that there were a number of quid pro quos between Team Trump and the Saudis such that they might somehow get access to American secrets via Trump. Not only did Jared get $2 billion from the Saudis, Trump also held the very controversial LIV golf tournament at Bedminster. This grows in importance now that we know the FBI has been asking people if they know anything about Trump…having Top Secret documents at Bedminster. So we have a situation where Trump has the means, motive and opportunity to sell American secrets to the Saudis. And, yet, time and again, Trump has been proven to be craven…but very, very lazy and dumb. So while it’s definitely POSSIBLE this type of skullduggery might have happened….I dunno. Trump can’t keep a secret. He would somehow blab about what a great deal he made with the Saudis before it was over with. But remember — some of the Top Secret documents Trump had were devoted to another nation’s nuclear arms program. I’m sure the Saudis would be interested in what America knows of the Israelis ‘ secret nuclear bomb program.

Trump buried his ex-wife with Top Secrets
This one doesn’t make any sense. Just because it’s weird that Trump buried Ivana Trump on a golf course, doesn’t mean he’s up to no good. The man is very, very strange and completely devoid of any empathy. And why would he bury Top Secrets in a grave? Why hide them there? The reason why he’s in trouble is his complete indifference to keeping Top Secret documents, well, safe. So…no. I would have have some sort of evidence to believe Trump buried Ivana with secrets.

‘Loose Cannon’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The current back and forth between Team Trump and the Justice Department in front of Judge Aileen Cannon is a prime example of why Mueller, She Wrote was wrong for blocking me for being “terribly negative.”

The decades’ long plot on the part of Republicans to corrupt the Federal bench is finally beginning to produce fruit. Judge Cannon is a young MAGA hack who will be on the bench for the next 40 odd years, probably. And no amount of whining on the part of Twitter liberals is going to change that. Which is exactly why she was appointed by Trump in the first place.

As such, we’ve probably gotten all the accountability we’re going to get with Trump. He’s suffered some political damage as result of stealing Top Secret documents, but when it comes to anything on a criminal basis…ha! Trump is above the law to the point that this case is going to bounce around the court system long enough that he will declare for 2024…and the whole thing becomes moot.

MAGA Republicans have accepted this criminal act by Trump — like they have all the other criminal shit he’s done — so, yet again, we just won’t have the will to do anything about Trump on either a criminal or political level. It is because of shit like what’s going on with Judge Cannon that any accusations about me being “terribly negative” just don’t hold up.

I’m right and Mueller, She Wrote is wrong, wrong, wrong.

Trump is above the law. And barring something neither I, nor anyone else, can predict, he’s going to be the 2024 Republican nominee. And there’s a good chance he might win outright, no cheating necessary, even though he will anyway because it’s his nature.

Then either Blue States bend a knee to autocratic, fascist MAGA Republicans or we don’t and we have a civil war. Again — I’m not being “terribly negative.” Just looking at what I can see with my own two eyes and gaming out what seeming to be the most logical outcome.

If I had any money, I would start gaming out how to accommodate our coming dystopian hellscape. But I’m a Poor, so, I don’t know what I’m going to do.

My Hot Take On The NARALago Photo

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Team Trump is caterwauling about a photo taken of Top Secret documents at Mar-a-Lago by the FBI. The reason is, of course, is it really hits home what was going on. And given that how much MAGA is freaking out about the picture, it’s obvious that MAGA “thought leaders” feel the photo is hurting them politically.

The big issue that they have with the photo is that is makes like they discovered the documents that way. But, if you look carefully at the photo, the box that the documents (not in this photo, but in another photo) were being stored is right there. So, the real reason why MAGA is freaking out is the photo tells the story of what was going on.

It’s a simple to understand of element of an abstract scandal. Which is exactly why MAGA hates it so much. And given the how potent the picture has been, I think maybe Trump shouldn’t release the CCTV footage of the FBI raid. That would, too, give the average person some sense, in concrete terms, the scope of what was going on at Mar-a-Lago.

Anyway, I think we need to accept that Trump continues to be above the law and he is bending both our political and criminal systems. And there comes a point when we have to put up or shut up about the existential crisis we face of autocracy or civil war.

We’re in the danger zone. We’re past the event horizon for some pretty fucked up things happening in the United States one way or another.

Would Holding Trump Criminally Accountable Cause Riots?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. But, just for the sake of argument, let’s think about what might happen if Trump was held criminally accountable. Would there be “riots in the streets” as Sen. Lindsey Graham suggests? This is one of three ways that Trump might start a Second American Civil War.

  1. An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability
    This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
  2. A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate
    In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
  3. A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution
    This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.

Well, I will admit that the country is on edge. And I will admit that there the conditions are there for severe political violence to happen pretty at any moment. But it takes a lot for even the most bonkers fascist MAGA New Right person to risk life and limb to protect a dingus like Trump. Or, put another way, as much as MAGA New Right people have murdering people like me in cold political blood on the brain, they want a civil war to officially start to do it so they won’t be held criminally accountable.

The events of January 6th were very specific to that moment. It helped a lot that Trump went transactional and told the crowd in front of him that they were going to march down the the Capitol together. (Of course, the shock troops of the Proud Boys were already there, waiting for the rest of the mob to arrive)

So, as such, I think ultimately a lot would rest on what Trump did. It wouldn’t be so much that Trump was indicted or otherwise held accountable, it would be that he went transactional and TOLD the MAGA New Right to burn the country to the ground. Or, even more dire, he might demand that MAGA state legislatures to convene Secessionist Conventions for the specific purpose of putting pressure on the Federal government to protect his sorry ass. Then, things might get out of control and the next thing you know, you have an honest-to-God National Divorce on your hands.

Of course, there is the other option that maybe we might have a 1968-type event, like what happened after Dr. Martin Luther King was murdered, only with white people. There might be some sort of spasm of violence on the part of MAGA New Right cocksuckers.

I honestly don’t know if there would be riots if Trump was held criminally accountable. But I do know that the prospect of such violence is going to be a talking point we hear a lot — A LOT — from the usual suspects of the MAGA New Right going forward.