I *May* Have Had Covid


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m feeling a whole lot better now, but for a solid 24 hours, I had a big chunk of the COVID19 symptoms. I’m going to get tested tomorrow, but for the time being I’m going to assume I had it and lay low.

One thing I wonder is if my exposure to the Korean cold virus a few years ago gave me added defense. Maybe? The only reason why I even suggest that is it literally felt the same way as that cold did and it was as if my body was telling me, “Don’t worry, we got this. We’ve seen this before.”

Either that, or I have a lot stronger immune system than you might think despite how much I drink and / or I didn’t have it in the first place. But we’ll see.

I’m looking forward the chance to have two weeks alone to work on the novel. It may not be King Lear, but I should be able to knock out a lot — A LOT of it — simply because I’m in lock down.

I May Have Covid


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The last 24 hours have been rough. I started crashing yesterday afternoon. And I have all the symptoms. I still don’t feel well. I would go get tested but there are some very specific practical problems in my way.

Hopefully, if I do have COVID19, it will just be like that bad Korean cold I had when I was in Incheon about a decade ago.

What Is Wrong With You People (Who Want A Second American Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t get people who actually want a Second American Civil War. Talk about the dumbest timeline! If you have a political belief that causes you to want not only mass murder but the potential end of human civilization through a World War 3, maybe you need to rethink what you believe.

The issue is — once a civil war started in the United States two thing would happen. One, the two sides would grow significantly more radical and would likely steal WMD from American military bases. The other is, the entire post-World War 2 liberal order would collapse and WW3 would begin.

So, yeah.

It seems as though what people who want a civil war want is to be able to wave a wand where they don’t have to worry about being “canceled” for just being conservative. Or something. They simply can not accept how fast America is changing on social issues and so they would rather risk the lives of millions than accept, say, gay marriage or the sexual agency of women. That’s kind of deep. But I guess if all you do is watch Newsmax and OANN, then there’s not much else you can expect.

I am obsessed with my Webstats and it definitely seems as though a lot of Southern cocksuckers really do think “the South will rise again.” Speaking as a New South Southerner — grow up, you idiots. Accept the modern world. I can’t help that you’re in too invested in the MAGA personality death cult.

Do I think there’s going to be a civil war? I honestly don’t know. But I will say if Rudy’s SCOTUS gambit works at this late date or if some idiot blows something up in protest to a Biden Administration, all bets are off. Anything, but anything is possible.

Of Taylor Swift


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I really like Taylor Swift. And, yet, there’s something “hot-but-not-sexy” about her. This, I think, is why she will never have any career in Hollywood. She has a very passionate fanbase who would be flabbergasted in the extreme if she, say, did nudity in a movie to further her career.

And, really, I don’t even think she should worry about it. She’s hitting on all cylinders right now…why change? She probably has a 30+ year career ahead of her — if not more – and she’ll sort of a far more popular version of Shania Twain when she’s in her 40s or 50s.

Though, it might be her natural ambition that gets her in trouble. There’s going to come a point when she’s married and has kids and basic human nature will kick in. She’s going to be, “Fuck it, a little T&A never hurt anyone, right?” I guess what I’m saying is, she could lay the groundwork for that NOW, instead of springing it on her fanbase later.

She’s done a few things here and again to spice her imagine up, but nothing too provocative. And, again, she’s fine. She has no reason to change. She is in the exact center of pop culture right now — no need for her to to an all-female version of Midnight Cowboy or anything.

The only thing I could maybe see causing her to change her imagine some is if, say, Miley Cyrus’ career began to eclipse hers or something. But Ms. Swift is such a gentle, awkward soul that I would be stunned if she did anything, anything at all, to change her imagine.

And I can’t say I blame her.

Cancel Thanksgiving


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All things being equal, we need to cancel 2020’s Thanksgiving. I’m not an expert on viral transmission, so please ignore me with extreme prejudice, but it makes sense that Thanksgiving would be national superspreader event waiting to happen.

We’re already projected, as I understand, to reach 2,000-3,000 daily deaths by mid-December, so having a bunch of people — many of them elderly — cooped up in a home together without masks for a long weekend doesn’t seem like all that great an idea.

But, of course, since we have a deranged moron as our president at least until January 20th, there’s a good chance we will have zero national leadership on this subject. Any “canceling” of Thanksgiving will happen in fits and starts and according to where you sit on the political spectrum.

So, we really are going to have a “dark winter.” By January 20th, 2021, we may have a daily COVID19 death toll reaching something close to 10,000. It definitely seems as though at a minimum we,we are going to reach the 600,000 dead of the 1918 – 1920 Spanish flu very, very soon.

Did Trump Really Get The Rona?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate conspiracy theories. I generally think they’re the last refuge of the intellectually dishonest. And, yet, when it comes to Trump’s case of COVID19 I’m beginning to be willing to entertain the idea that it was a hoax of some sort.

Let’s go through why.

How We Found Out
For a White House that is known for its raibid paranoia, we sure did find out about Trump having COVID19 in a rather casual way. A journalist from Bloomburg asked a question and they found out. (I think they found out about Hope Hicks having it, which led to Trump.) That is very curious. Why let such earth-shattering information just slip out without usual teeth-pulling, lies, stonewalling and general rat fucking. Just letting us find out without it being a state secret — especially with this White House — is very odd

Claudia Conway
It makes us feel all warm inside to think that 15-year-old Claudia Conway gave us the truth in a Tik-Tok video. And, relative to what she believed, I have no reason to doubt that she was telling us the truth. And, yet, it sure would make a lot more sense that instead of her mom “accidently” letting her daughter hear that Trump was near-death (or whatever) what if it was “accidently on purpose?” That sure does make a lot more sense than what we thought at the time.

Trump Is Fine Now
COVID19 usually takes weeks to recover from, not a few days. And given the side-effects of all the different drugs he was allegedly put on, you’d think he would be acting even more surreal and bonkers than he usually does. And, yet, it was pretty much just an exaggerated version of his usual fucktardness. It would make a lot more sense if he was out of commission for at least two weeks.

Now, let’s go through why this conspiracy doesn’t make any sense

The Superspreader Event Was Real
How it could be that Trump would fake a COVID19 infection after what was an actual, real superspreader event at the White House make no sense. So, that leads me to believe he really got it. Even though he was on steroids and experimental therapeutics that should have left him out of it for some time, he was able to pull through in a surprisingly short amount of time.

Trump’s White House Can’t Shoot Straight
Trump runs the White House like the Trump Org and, as such, it’s a complete shitshow. It’s so totally disorganized and leaky, that for them to successfully fake Trump getting COVID19 would require an amount of discipline that they, to date, have not shown.

So, I don’t know. I guess the only reason why I’m willing to entertain this idea at all is how much Trump lies and how much he got to “own the libs” by making them feel bad about him being sick.

Potential Upcoming ‘October Surprises’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. The Full Mueller Report Is Released
    Because of a deranged tweet on the part of Trump, it’s possible that an emergency FOIA request by BuzzFeed might actually get us the entire Mueller Report right before the election. Or not. Given that we’re now an autocratic managed democracy, Barr could simply shrug and say either “fuck you” or “wait until after the election.”
  2. Trump’s Taxes A Leaked
    Even though the NYT apparently has gotten Trump’s taxes, it’s possible that at least on a criminal level, the authorities might actually get them as well. It would happen mid-October or so. They might leak in their entirety and they might show Trump is doing his foreign policy directly because of his finances.
  3. A Durham Investigation “Preliminary Summary”
    Even though we’ve been told “not to expect any indictments before the election” when it comes to the Durham Investigation, that doesn’t mean Barr won’t pop out and lay out what he thinks the investigation will show at some point after the election. Given how absolutely deranged Trump is about indicting someone, anyone he doesn’t like, this could be a way for Barr to square the circle on that one
  4. Trump Finally Snaps
    Given that Trump constantly acts as though he has already snapped, how we would know the difference, I don’t know. But I guess it would be a matter of degree. Trump would do something so insane that in some sort of transational fashion that it finally gets people’s attention.
  5. COVID19
    Someone REALLY IMPORTANT shuffles off this mortal coil and suddenly everything is throw up in the air in a big, big way. I really don’t want this type of thing to happen.
  6. Political Violence
    This would happen in such a way as to either cause people to “rally round the flag” right before the election or pretty much cause the country to implode in some fashion.
  7. Geopolitical Saber Rattling
    In real terms, both the DPRK and Iran have been very quiet. I could see Little Rocket Man trying to help his BFF Trump by scaring the shit out of us. Then everything goes out of control and we’re fucked.

    Bonus Post Election Surprises
    Even if there’s a huge landslide in Biden’s favor, Barr STILL tries to steal the election and all bets are off. Or, even worse, the Russians steal the election for Trump and we find out sooner rather than later.

Comparative Political History: Claudia Conway & Martha Mitchell


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You know you live in surreal times when have to start wondering if a 15-year-old should be up for the Pulitzer Prize. But, here we are.

But let’s look into the person who Miss Conway is most analogous to: Watergate’s Martha Mitchell. She was called “the Mouth of the South” and loved to gossip. In 1972, she overheard her husband — Attorney General Bob Mitchell — talking about the Watergate coverup.

We’re sorry, Martha.

Her husband found out and for her troubles she was tranquilized and held captive. (If I remember the story correctly.) Because she was so outrageous and kooky, when she started rambling about the Watergate coverup, no one believed her — they thought she was a nut.

The weird thing about Miss Conway is, to date, she’s been able to speak freely on Tik-Tok (of all things.) So, the question is — can we trust her? I think so. What we can’t understand is the internal dynamic of the Conway family and how it is she can blab about such important things without fear of retribution. So, that, in itself, makes you scratch your head and wonder if any of this can possibly be true.

Anyway.

Things are weird right now.

The Darkest Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of right now, it seems as though Trump is going to be fine. There may be a lot of rumors about him being near-death, but just like Little Rocket Man, he’ll pull through and be fine. He can go about his work of destroying the Republic unfettered.

But, let’s imagine that doesn’t happen.

Two major issues immediately confront us — what to do with Republican ticket and any political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon who think it’s all a Deep State effort to stop Trump from taking “total control.”

The Ticket
The few MAGA people I talk to say Pence is not for them. So, it seems as though there will be a very brutal power struggle to figure out who will lead the Republicans. Because he’s already on the ticket, Pence has the 9/10th rule on his side. But this things may grow very untenable for him politically very quickly. I could see Ivanka becoming the Republican nominee or some negotiated deal whereby Pence promises to name her veep should he win. All I know is — House Trump ain’t going nowhere.

Violence
I believe the United States would suffer unprecedented political violence from the moment the Dear Leader flew his unicorn into the sky. In fact, it could be that Trump’s legacy may be the thing that brings down the Republic and pushes us into civil war / revolution, not the living Trump.

But I just don’t see either one of those being an issue. Just because Claudia Conway says he’s “sicker” than we’re being told, doesn’t mean anything. I would, however, check with her immediately if rumors of The Dear Leader’s demise pop out of the darkness.

House Trump’s ‘Regency’ & The Fate Of America — & Humanity


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me state that I think Trump is going to be fine. But, let’s suppose he’s a “long hauler” and is incapacitated by COVID19 for a longer amount of time. What happens?

The World Without The United States.

I think we’d have some sort of Regency, then. Probably made up of Ivanka, Jared and Barr. I say this because apparently Ivanka and Jared run everything already and Barr would be the goon that inforced everything legally.

This is how “Trump” would do exactly what we all expect him to do anyway — steal the election post-election. Now, this raises and interesting situation — what if Biden clobbers Trump politically and the House Trump Regency STILL tries to steal the election (which they will.)

This is a recipe for the United States to implode.What I mean by this is our national polity goes –poof! — and we devolve into our major local and regional polities. Even the U.S. Military may not be able to keep things together if that happens. They won’t chose POTUS, because they won’t exist.

Major polities in the US below the national level are California, Texas, the Deep South, the Northeast and NYC. If we were to, God forbid, Balkanize, those would be the polities that would sort things out.

Three things of note — if you keep California in the Union, then that’s the bedrock of any “Renewed American Covenant.” Texas is a real question mark as to which direction they would go which can be summed up by the question, “Is Texas American or Southern?” Also, there would likely be massive domestic political refugees as the Blue and the Red consolidated their political positions internally.

But, remember, the entire 70 year old liberal global order would go tits up the moment the US imploded, so the very existence of humanity might be in question as China-India-Pakistan-Israel-Iran-DPRK began to attempt to get a lot of their geopolitical dreams for no other reason than they know they can now.

Do I really think that’s going to happen — no.

But is something to at least take seriously enough to think about.