An Astonishing Number Of People Will Have To Die Each Day During The Next Pandemic For Us To Have The Political Will To Do Anything About It

by Shelt Garner

I can tell you from what the conservatives in my family — whom I love dearly — have told me that a massive number of people will have to start dying each day for any sort of political response to a new pandemic to happen. It could be as high as 10,000 people a day before we can get our act together.

I don’t know, it might even be more — 20,000? 30,000? 50,000?

There is now a strict orthodoxy within traditional conservative ranks that under no circumstances can there ever be any sort of lockdown or restricts imposed because of a health emergency.

So, things will have to grow rather apocalyptic before there is any collective action when we have the next pandemic. I have this on my mind at the moment because I’m growing nervous that this fall and winter might be really bad in regards to COVID.

At the moment, it definitely seems as though, lulz, we’re just going to let people die needlessly, no matter how bad things get this COVID season. Ugh. Everything is so dumb.

No One Has Done A Good Pandemic Scifi Novel Yet

by Shelt Garner

The long-feared deluge of pandemic inspired fiction has yet to come about. There have been a few pandemic themed novels written before the COVID19 pandemic that have gained traction, but nothing written during or after. Though, I guess, “Our Country Friends” is one — but that’s not scifi.


I have two pretty good pandemic related concepts that I keep toying with. One would be more just the part of a broader story while the other would be a full blown novel. And, really, the only reason why I have done anything with either one of these idea is 1) I’m busy working on something else 2) I have a universe but thinking up a plot is a huge amount of work.

But the concepts are really unique and interesting and it’s too bad I probably won’t ever get around to them.

Americans, Worry About Canada

by Shelt Garner

Let me begin by saying I’m not an expert on Canadian culture and or politics and this is just a gauzy reflection on what little I know about the place. But the key issue is — the current “Make Canada Great Again” anti-vaccine mandate trucker camp out in Ottawa is dangerous.

I say this because the entire anglophone world is in crisis. And, even more importantly, Canada has such a small population that the whole “5%” of the population rule to make a revolution is even more timely.

So, it’s at least possible to imagine a situation where the truckers spark something that is marketed as a “Right wing revolution” in Canada. This, in turn, would embolden the fucking insane Right wing nutjobs in the United States.

Or, put another way — keep an eye on Canada. It might grow a lot more unstable in the near future than any of us in North America — and beyond — may like.

What The Fuck Is Trump Up To, Changing His Tune On Vaccines?

by Shelt Garner

Well, I’m stumped on this one. It make no sense what so ever for dingus Trump to suddenly embrace COVID19 vaccines. None. I honestly don’t understand what’s going on. It feels like some sort of surreal alternative universe. Which, I have to admit, is what everything since Trump coming down that goddamn escalator has felt like.

The only thing I can think of is Trump is subtly shifting his attention from a pure base play to a more Traditionalist play. He knows he’s weak right now and maybe he thinks if he embraces vaccines then those conservatives who are “MAGA adjacent” might like him more? I’m thinking of those conservatives who have taken the vaccine but because of negative polarization and an extensive permission structure would never, ever for any reason make common cause with liberals against MAGA.

I dunno.

And, yet, that is a way too complicated political consideration for someone demonstrably as stupid as Trump is. Whatever the most simplistic, stupidest political judgement might be for Trump doing the exact opposite of what you might expect from him is why he’s doing it.

Or, I guess, you could say he’s finally grown so senile that he’s lost touch with reality to the point that he has actually begun to do what he should have done when the pandemic started. This doesn’t eliminate the question of, like, why? Why the fuck is Trump doing…gulp...the right thing?

It remains a mystery to me. Either it will become very obvious soon enough what he’s up to, or Trump risks destroying himself for no apparent reason.

2022’s Coming Battle Royale Over COVID’s ‘Endemic’ Status

by Shelt Garner

Seems like the next major battle after Cancel Culture and CRT will be FOX “News” ranting at the top of its lungs that COVID is now “endemic” and fuck you. They will night after night lay out why they think around 2,000 people dying a day from COVID is just “a fact of life” and why is it we can’t get more tax cuts and young hack MAGA judges?

The reason why this is going to happen is, as I understand it, something being considered “endemic” is pretty much totally subjective. The issue is — how many people dying a day from something is a society willing to take? Red States are tired of the pandemic, so COVID is endemic, while Blue States are aghast at how many people are dying every day from COVID, so it continues to be a national health emergency.

And because of how subjective things are, this gives Fox “News” a huge opportunity to do what it always does — scare the shit out of white people about “evil libtards” who want to control them and divide the country between Red and Blue.

So, it’s easy to see the battle over COVID’s status being yet another bow in the FOX “News” quiver in their rapacious drive to flip Congress. They’ll play their audience like a xylophone, bouncing back and forth between CRT, Cancel Culture and COVID being endemic.

You already see FOX News doing this, they just don’t use the term “endemic,” probably because they don’t want to sound pretentious.

COVID In Blue & Red

by Shelt Garner

I’m the red headed step child of my family on a political basis. My family is made up of bed rock Traditionalists, while I’m the paste-eating libtard weirdo. I would note, however, that it’s only since the rise of MAGA that the lines have hardened. I’m not really that liberal, but I’ve been forced to pick a side and I fucking refuse to ignore that MAGA is run by a fucking moron who is thisclose to being an autocrat.

Slings and arrows, and all that.

Something I find myself talking to the Red people in my life a lot these days is COVID. It is very interesting how different the two sides see this particular macro event in our nation’s history. I see it as a national health crisis, while my Red family members are just tired of it and want to move on.

One issue that is a bone of contention is when does the pandemic become endemic? When do we just take COVID for granted and see it as just another risk associated with being human? Even under the best of conditions, talking about this with my Red family members can seem like going in circles. They want to compare 1,000 people dying a day to other forms of death. And I keep saying, “But is cancer contagious? Is heart disease contagious ? Is an accident contagious ?”

I totally get why people are so tired of the pandemic. I get it. I really do. And we’re so divided as a nation at the moment that there will likely come a point when 48% of the population shrugs and decides COVID is endemic, regardless of what libtards say while 48% will still see COVID as a national health emergency.

So, as always, we’re fucked.

Omicron: Sometimes, They Come Back

by Shelt Garner

We all have been working on the assumption that COVID19 would come and go and later at some point we would face The Big One. This new pandemic would be separate from COVID and be so bad that we would look back at the years 2020 – 2021 and realize we really didn’t know how good we had it.

Yes, but.

It’s beginning to dawn on me that there is a real chance that The Big One may be nothing more of a continuation of the original COVID19 outbreak. Or, to put it another way, what if 2020 – 2021 is seen by future historians as analogous to WW1?

We could face a new, highly contagious and deadly COVID19 variant that is not something independent of COVID19, but rather a variant of it. It’s easy to game out a situation where we go through off of this again with the same virus, but we end up with far, far, far more people dead.

How likely is that to happen? I honestly have no idea.

But it is a hyper modern Modern Problem for us all to mull. It’s very possible that sooner rather than later our entire world could be upended by the same virus that’s been doing it since late 2019.

When To Panic About Omicron

by Shelt Garner

I am not an expert. You probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say. But I am pretty good at running scenarios, so let’s go through what would be a few “tipping points” on the issue of Omicron (or something similar) that would force us all to sit up and take notice.

  1. We Learn Vaccines Aren’t Working
    Vaccines are our first line of defense. But I am hearing conflicting messages about Omicron. I’m hearing that it’s a lulz if you’ve been vaccinated. And I’m hearing it has significant breakthrough data. So, I don’t know. It seems we pretty safe for the time being on that front.
  2. It Spreads A Lot Faster
    This definitely seems to be something going on with Omicron. If your community is unvaccinated, it moves a lot faster within your community.
  3. The Mortality Rate Is Far, Far Higher
    In the end, I again use the metric I used with COVID19 when it first came out — how many people are dying or getting really sick? I thought it was going to be A LOT of people, when it turned out to be far less deadly than my initial belief. So, for me, at least, we would have to have the three strikes of blowing past vaccines, spreading a lot faster AND the death rate being a lot higher (even for the vaccinated) before I would grow too concerned.

    For the time being, I’m taking a wait and see approach, as should you. Grab a towel. No need to panic.

Is The Omicron COVID19 Variant My Feared “Omega Variant?’

by Shelt Garner

Some time ago, I worried out loud on this blog about the possibility of a super potent COVID19 variant I called “the Omega Variant.” The announcement today of the existence of the “Omicron” variant has again got me wondering if my dire predictions might come true.

For it to be what I feared, the Omicron variant would have to be so much worse than the original COVID19 everything would be thrown up in the air in an unprecedented fashion, very, very rapidly. In fact, the very existence of our current concept of the modern world would momentarily be put in doubt. Hundreds of millions of people all over the world would have to die in quick succession.

That’s when we know that the Omicron variant was the Omega Variant.

So far, I don’t even know why the WHO is concerned about Omicron in the first place. As such, I think we’re all kind of freaking out and pouring our fears into it in the abstract.

There is a political aspect to all of this. Enough people die quick enough in the United States and the country will buckle in to warring camps a lot — A LOT — sooner than you might think. But, for the moment at least, that’s all very fantastical.

Soon enough, I think we’ll find out what the deal is with Omicron and how concerned we should be. I’m hold up with a broken right ankle, so, hopefully, if the apocalypse does come, it can at least wait until February.

At least give me a running start, Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Red October: The MAGA New Right’s Orthodoxy On COVID19 #ArrestFauci

by Shelt Garner

As best I can understand it, here’s the MAGA New Right’s media narrative on COVID19:

COVID19 was intentionally released by either the Chinese government or major pharmaceutical companies — or some combination of both — from a lab in Wuhan as part of a Deep State plot to prevent Trump from being re-elected. Along the way, Dr. Antony Fauci, despite spending his entire adult life trying to save lives, was somehow directly and personally involved in funding this research and directly benefited from it on a financial basis.

Though Trump should get endless amount of praise for his Operation Warp Speed, any form of mandate or mitigation requirement is illegal and should be proactively ignored on a personal basis by God fearing Christians. If necessary, one should take up arms to make your point. Even though there is a free, safe vaccine created by funding and organization by Trump, the average person should not take it, but rather risk getting sick and then taking any number of drugs and potions in an effort to mitigate the symptoms.

Because of the evil machinations of China, the Deep State and pharmaceutical companies, the United States should get reparations from the Chinese government equal to the amount of lost economic production that was caused by the pandemic. What’s more, Dr. Fauci should be arrested and put on trial for mass murder.

And, honestly, in all fairness, Trump should be re-instated because COVID19 was a plot to bring him down, after all. And if that doesn’t work, then Steve K. Bannon is going to work personally to ensure the administration of elections on a local level is so corrupted by his “spiritual shock troops” that it’s impossible for a Democrat to ever win any office ever again.

So, that’s what we’re up against right now with the MAGA New Right. Now, if they can actually back up any of these claims, then I’m willing to listen to them and readjust my thinking accordingly. I’m aware that this is new evidence to suggest that there was some Federal funding of the research going on at the Wuhan lab, but nothing that would indicate that Dr. Fauci was personally getting any monetary gain or that in any way he did anything that would require him being fired, forced to retire or, least of all, arrested.

Steve K. Bannon

But this lack of evidence has not stopped Steve K. Bannon from making it absolutely clear on his podcast that, at a minimum, the Chinese government owes the U.S. Government trillions in reparations, immediately.

All of this bullshit is another side that things are dark in the Untied States and only getting darker. We’re careening towards a breaking point, an existential choice — and none of the three options I think we’re going to be forced to choose from will be all that great.

And, really, the crux of the matter is we’re dealing with macro forces and we’ve gone pass the event horizon. There’s no going back. Something huge is going to happen domestically in the United States no later than around January 2025. It may be as subtle as the country peacefully transitioning into an autocracy. It could be something really dramatic like an epic civil war involving WMD. We might endup with a military junta, but that’s the lease likely of the outcomes I see before us.