Idle Musing On The ‘Phony War’ Between #Trump & #Mueller In The Context Of Brexit

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Let’s look at the state of the “Phony War” now going on between Trump and Mueller. As I keep saying, given that if the House simply does its job Trump will be impeached in early 2019, it makes a lot of sense for Trump to strike first. Add to this there is a real possibility that the American economy — and that of the globe, for that matter — may face a real shock in the guise of a bungled Brexit in Great Britain and it definitely seems like Trump should leverage the power he has now to do a sneak attack on Mueller.

If I was Trump, I would fire Mueller immediately, pardon about a dozen people and hunker down for an extended fight. If you think about it, Trump has about 2 months to brainwash his base into believing the “which hunt” is over and that the House is totally wasting its time in investigating him at all. At this point, I have to note that anyone who thinks the House shouldn’t investigate Trump because it will only “help” him politically is really living in political la-la land. The dead hand of history has decided Trump’s fate and that fate is he is going to be impeached by the House in early 2019. There’s no going back at this point. It’s nearly a done deal.

As such, it makes pretty obvious sense to me that Trump should go on the offensive now while he has the time. It doesn’t make any sense to wait until the House officially flips to do anything about Mueller. Every moment Trump doesn’t fire Mueller and pardon people is a wasted opportunity for him in the long run. Again, in my view, there’s a real chance that Brexit is going to be completely bungled and as such it would deprive Trump of the one thing he has going for him at this point — a “humming economy.” So it makes even more sense for Trump to be as proactive as possible. Trump has until January to continue to rule as an absolute tyrant and once the new House is sworn in, the jig is up, as they say and he has an completely new political reality to deal with.

The issue for me about Mueller is he has a real weak hand in the short term and a decent hand long term. I say this because if Mueller indicts someone big like Don Jr., he’s bound to be fired one way or another. But once the new House is sworn in, they can demand he — and everyone on his team — tell them everything they know. That, in turn, will get Trump impeached as he will anyway for a whole host of things ranging from abuse of power to “light treason.”

Speaking of “light treason,” it seems going forward that the only thing the Senate would get anywhere near convicted Trump for is whatever it is he talk to Putin about in their hour long secret meeting. If the House talked to the American translator of that meeting and found out Trump really did conspire against the United States, while it wouldn’t meet the Constitutional definition of treason, it would definitely would get pretty damn close from a political standpoint.

Having said all that, it definitely seems as though the first quarter of 2019 is going to be damn bumpy. And if the economic consequences of Brexit turned out to be Trump’s ultimate undoing that would be a fitting end to this political nightmare that we find ourselves in.

Shall We Play A Game? — Wargaming The #Trump V. #Mueller Political War

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It seems pretty obvious to me that every moment Trump doesn’t strike first against Mueller is a moment wasted. It seems from a politically strategic standpoint it would be best for Trump if he struck first and struck first hard. I would fire Mueller as quickly as humanly possible, then pardon everyone involved in what happened and then hunker down for the next two months. I don’t understand why Trump would wait until either Mueller strikes first or the House officially flips.

It just doesn’t make any sense.

So maybe something’s going on that I don’t know about. Maybe, there’s a lot going on that I don’t know about. But I will be shocked if this “phony war” between Trump and Mueller lasts until January. It makes a lot more sense for Trump to strike Muller now during the holidays than wait until people might have their fully attention focused on Trump in January.

I honestly don’t know what is going to happen at this point.

V-Log: Conservative Media Goes Silent Online, Trump & Mueller Continue The ‘Phony War’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

How long is this going to last? What’s next?

V-Log: Trump & Mueller’s ‘Phony War’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I think we’re in a phony war between Trump and Mueller. It’s just a matter of who strikes first at this point. I keep trying to figure out what Trump is going to do and I can’t figure it out. I do the same with Mueller and it’s even more fuzzy.

V-Log: Trump, Mueller & The ‘Dead Hand’ Of History

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Some thoughts on 2019.

V-Log: The Sunken Place — Trump’s Strategy With Mueller Going Forward

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Some thoughts.

A Deep Dive Into Trump’s Potential Strategy Going Forward

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I may not be all that great at “game theory,” but I’m pretty good at strategic thinking. I have been wracking my brains the last few days as to what Trump is thinking now that he’s lost the House. It is telling that he fired Sessions so quick after this happened. But what, exactly, does it mean?

Look at it from Trump’s point of view — he knows he’s done some very, very bad, un-Constitutional things, but he also knows that no matter what he’s not going to be convicted in the Senate. It’s just not going to happen. There’s no way 67 Senators are going to convict the president, no matter what he does.

This is why it’s so difficult to figure out Trump’s strategy at this point. He knows some basic things to be true. He has two month so do whatever he wants to, but at the same time once those two months are up things change dramatically. If he’s thinking long-term, he knows anything drastic he does simply increases the already high likelihood that he will be impeached sometime in the first quarter of 2019. It’s a real struggle for me to figure out what he does. It seems to one scenario is he might leverage the next two months by striking first. It’s a risky strategy in some ways, but in other ways he’s simply what comes naturally to him — strike back and strike back hard.

So an argument could be made that he would rather declare war first and then hunker down for an impeachment fight rather than wait until January when it’s almost inevitable that there will be investigations and he will, in turn, be impeached. A lot depends on Mueller. If Mueller throws down the gauntlet between now and January, we will enter a surreal moment in our nation’s history when we pretty much just sit around and wait for the new House to be sworn in.

That’s why is seems from a cold, hard white-knuckled political point of view, it makes a lot of sense for Trump to strike first by firing everyone he feels he needs to fire and pardon everyone he feels he needs to pardon — looking at you Don Jr. — and declare war on the House using every available political tool and resource at his disposal. Trump knows that he is, because of the 67 votes needed to convict him in the Senate, pretty much a dictator at this point. He’s a king. And he’s almost certain to be re-elected for various reasons including a riled up base, an exceptional economy and general Constitutional rot.

So, in that sense, I have a hunch that very, very, very soon Bob Mueller will be fired, half a dozen people will be pardoned and absolutely nothing happens in real terms for two months. Trump will have two months to pound away at the in coming House, he can frame any investigations in cold, hard political terms to his base and the country is completely torn apart for the few months it takes to investigate everything, impeach Trump, have it go to the Senate and then die there. Of course, given the states, Trump’s trial in the Senate is likely to be a modern day OJ trial for a lot of people.

On a personal note, I would like to call bullshit on anyone who waves off the need to impeach Trump. I feel it’s out of hands at this point. History has made its decision and it won’t take too much investigation on the part of the House for it to become apparent that Trump has to at least suffer the historic shame of impeachment, even if we all know he won’t be convicted. Remember, the absolute last argument of MAGA will be, “Yeah? Well convict him.”

In other words, we will all know the gory details of Trump’s obstruction of justice, his conspiracy with a foreign power to influence his election….and nothing will happen to him. He will be impeached, but not convicted and that, as they say, will be that. He will win re-election and there will be a lot — a lot — of stories about Trump is now “unbound” because we had one silver political bullet and we didn’t manage to strike the werewolf.

Or, put another way, what will have to learn about Trump will have to be simply staggering for us to get anywhere near convicting him in the Senate. I would also like to note that the moment MAGA people do the “Pence Pivot” whereby they talk about what a “man of God” Pence is and they really voted for Pence, not Trump in 2016 is the moment Trump’s goose is cooked. But what would have to happen for the Pence Pivot to happen would be so astonishing as to leave me astonished.

In short, Trump is likely going to get impeached, be acquitted in the Senate and cruse to a pleasant victory in 2020. That is without considering the possibility of a major terrorist attack or war with either Iran or the DPRK. So, Trump will start campaign in 2024 for his “legacy” and hopefully by that point The Resistance will have come up with the leadership necessary to deny him one.

Shelton Bumgarner is a writer and photographer living in Richmond, Va. He is working on his first novel. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com.

Herding Cats — I Call On The WHCA To Boycott The White House

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I grew up wanting to be a journalist, and as such a I have a lot of respect for Jim Acosta and the rest of the White House Correspondence Association. the fact that Trump would abuse his power based on a bald face lie and revoke Acosta’s “hard pass” press credentials to the White House is enough to make my blood boil.

As such, it seems as thought desperate times call for drastic measures and as such the WHCA should boycott the White House en masse. They won’t do it, of course, but they should. They should take a principled stand on Acosta’s behalf and raise some hell. Go Howard Beal on them, if need be. They have a lot of individual power and if they acted collectively, it would be historic and powerful.

But I have very low exceptions.

And, besides, no one listens to me anyway.

V-Log: The Case For Impeaching Trump In 2019

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

This is my response to people who think we “don’t have time” to impeach Trump in 2019.

V-Log: A Sunday Afternoon Closing Argument For The Resistance #2018Midterms

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Another pretty good one.