Wrote the first scene of the first draft tonight.
by Shelton Bumgarner
I think Bob Mueller fell on his sword.
In other words, much like how SCOTUS sacrificed its historical legitimacy as part of the 2000 election recount decision, so, too, did Mueller take a look into the void of going after who he needed to indict and say, “Nope!”
As such, in the short term, I guess we can all kind of just start listening to disco again. Because, in a sense, Mueller took it upon himself to pardon Trump and as such, Trump is going to slowly take over the country and turn us into Russia now.
It’s going to suck!
All I can say is, if you have anything creative in your head get at it. Soon enough we may not have the freedoms we’re used to. I give it less than 20 years.
by Shelton Bumgarner
Here are several potential outcomes to today’s (?) release of The Mueller Report to Congress and, in turn, us.
One: It’s strangely a whitewash
In this scenario, we’re all left with the sense that something stinks to high heaven, be it that AG Barr is really hiding something big from us, or that the fix was in on the whole thing the moment AG Barr officially took control over the investigation. This seems like the most likely outcome for various reasons. In this instance, Trump uses his “exoneration” as a sweeping political bludgeon against ANY investigation of he or his administration and we get a very Iran-contra ending to all of this in the long-run.
Two: “Extensive But Inconclusive”
In this case, we learn a huge amount of the details as to what happened between the 2016 Trump Campaign and the Russians but in the end, again, there’s no knockout punch and Trump uses this vague ending to this affair to consolidate power long-term and we’re all very, very fucked. Like, within 20 years we’re a Russian-style “managed democracy” fucked.
Three: The Report is Big. Really Big. But it takes forever for us to learn it.
There’s a really good chance that the bigger the conclusion of the report, the less likely we’ll see it’s full implications for a long, long time. It could be 2021 before we learn the extent to which Trump worked in concert with the Russians to throw the election. By that point, any number of things could have happened. The House could have flipped again, Trump could have finally seized complete control of the government or what have you. It’s all moot and America turns into a fascist dictatorship in all but name.
Four: “Ok, Well Convict Me.”
In this instance, all hell breaks loose. The Report, while declining to suggest anyone big get indicted makes it clear the Trump is in very, very, very big trouble. In this case, Trump’s strategy is to say, “Look, if you can’t convict me in the Senate, shut up.” This would be the ultimate payoff of his base-oriented focus. He easily beats the rap in the Senate and he can marrily go about his business destroying the country. This is a little risky, of course, because, well, Trump is a criminal.
by Shelton Bumgarner
I smell a rat.
Unless some datapoint pops up between now and when we see some cleaned up version of The Mueller Report, I’m going to have some suspicions as to why it was wrapped up when it was.
— Bill Barr and Bob Mueller are close friends (apparently).
— Trump is now in a position to handily win re-election
— Don Jr. is now in a position to handily become president.
— The report comes out just as the 2020 election cycle heats up
So, all I’m saying is someone — AOC maybe? — needs to ask Bob Mueller and Bill Barr some very, very pointed questions.
Maybe the report itself will clear this all up and put to bed my concern.
by Shelton Bumgarner
There’s a real possibility that Trump knows his base so well that he’s willing to put all his political chips on the table, knowing he’s going to win.
In other words, he might let The Mueller Report come out, knowing that no matter what, he won’t be convicted in the Senate. As I’ve long said about all of this, the last argument of MAGA will be:
“Fuck you, convict him. If you can’t convict him, shut up.”
And, in a sense, I think that’s what Trump’s strategic thinking is.
He probably knows his poll number well enough to know there is absolutely no way 67 Senators will vote to convict him in the Senate, so, in a sense, the sooner he gets impeachment out of the way, the sooner he can do his “Carnage Again In America” campaign for 2020.
Of course, the best laid plans…so if No Deal Brexit happens and the global economy suddenly and abruptly slows down…well, let the games begin!
by Shelton Bumgarner
We may — maybe — be careening towards a perfect storm. It’s possible that within days of each other, The Mueller Report will drop in the States and No Deal Brexit will occur in the UK.
This would have us on track (should we actually ever learn what’s in The Mueller Report) for one of the most eventful Aprils in our nation’s history in the sense that no only will there be growing calls for impeachment of POTUS, but the global economy will come to a screeching halt.
But there’s a lot we don’t know at this point.
Trump could lock away The Mueller Report with his taxes.
No Deal Brexit might not happen or might be significantly delayed.
We just don’t know.
There is, however, a greater than zero-sum chance that Trump will, in April, face an unprecedented political existential threat to his administration. There’s also the chance, of course, that America is so divided that not even if Trump’s electorate base melts down to anti-vaxxers and flat earthers will he be removed from office.
Because of demographic, economic and social trends, it may be that Trump will simply be the beginning of a political dynasty that lasts until either the country finally tears itself asunder or the youngest of the Baby Boomers finally begin to die off just as the browning of America begins to have real political impact.
We just don’t know.
by Shelton Bumgarner
Trump is an avatar for some extraordinary systemic issues in the American political system. In other words, someone like Trump was going to pop up at this point in American history demographic and economic issues. All that was up in the air was the exact nature of it all.
So, the case could be made that Trump’s rise has more to do with the conditions that existed in 2008 than whatever specifically may have existed in 2016. Though, of course, there were at least two — two! — criminal active criminal conspiracies that helped push Trump across the victory line in 2016.
But even if Trump had lost, things were going to suck.
And had Trump not won, the only difference between what we have no and supposed counter-factual is the Republican who won would probably have not been, well, insane and a norm breaker like Trump. But the sudden, abrupt shift to the insane conservatism of the modern Republican party was bound to happen for no other reason than, well, Obama turned them all into insane racists hell bent on overturning his legacy.
White people can suck so bad sometimes. (I say this and I’m white.)
I say all of the above because all the people who seem to think The Mueller Report is going to magically bring Obama back from his extended trip to grab a pack of smokes at the corner store are deluding themselves. MAGA is a long-term, chronic issue that will always be on the cusp of going septic until, well, it does.
Maybe not a civil war, but a situation whereby the one thing America has had for about 200 years — even through a civil war! — will be lost: regular elections and civilian control of the military.
If you have to debate with a MAGA person if the United States is a democracy or a republic, well, you have your answer right there. There’s going to come a point when the United States is run by a military junta for no reason than both sides will grow so polarized that the the entire system freezes up and because the American military won’t follow an illegal order, either they step in to cool down the situation or there’s enough unrest that we might have a situation like Reconstruction where some states are run as military districts (probably the Blue States the way things are going.)
It’s so difficult to address why we’re going to have to wait until the 2021-2023 era to “get” Trump politically because there’s so much going on on a macro level. The point is, Trump is going to win re-election in 2020 and either he starts to tout someone as his “successor” who will protect his “legacy” in 2024….or we do, in fact, finally “get him.”
By “get him” I mean he’s removed from office because the preponderance of evidence against him is so staggering — and the time before he leaves off is long enough — that even though he will say he’s been “vindicated” there’s a real chance that the economy will finally tank and then he’ll be down to about 20% of the electorate who will continue to support him.
And, yet, I have to address the most fucked up scenario again.
That scenario, which I just don’t see happening, but still, is this: The Mueller Report finally comes out and somehow, someway we learn (after a few months of court battles) that “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy” and impeachment hearings began in the middle of an extended 2020 campaign.
It would be the most completely fucked up political event in modern American political history because the cold hard facts of how we’re now two America’s will be laid bare.
One one hand, Trump’s many, many, many crimes will be investigated in the House and just about 50% of the electorate will think he should be convicted in the Senate.
Meanwhile, the other 50% of the electorate will be busy RE-NOMINATING Trump for 2020.
Talk about a crazy split screen.
While highly unlikely — I think Trump will easily win re-election for various reasons, there is a non-zero chance it could happen. Probably the exact timing of No Deal Brexit will play a large part in all.
But what do I know.
by Shelton Bumgarner
I consider myself an independent moderate liberal and generally I wouldn’t even think of supporting something as draconian as a PIN for individual use of the Internet, and yet it seems as though the time has come to have that debate.
The reason is simple –the Russians are fucking with us.
A case could be made that you could appease both the Left and the Right in the United States by establishing a nationwide Internet PIN system. It would be like a driver’s license for the Information Superhighway, to date myself with a metaphor.
It would be very basic — you simply would have to establish that you were a real fucking American citizen to use the American Internet. That’s it.
Now, I’m the first to say doing something like this is ripe for abuse on any number of different levels. And, yet, given how important the Internet is in our political system (see also Donald J. Trump) maybe the only way to throw things back into whack is to do something really incredibly draconian and crazy.
The Right would be able to crow about how terrorists who used the Internet for nefarious reasons could be tracked down and the Left could sigh a huge sigh of relief that fucking Russian trolls weren’t throwing the fucking presidential election and electing incompetnent Right Wing celebrity Twitter trolls.
And, yet, such a PIN system would likely be instantly abused so badly as to make it something we would regret the moment existed.
But I’m desperate. Really desperate.
I want my country back.
by Shelton Bumgarner
When the House flipped, I thought we had until August 2019 to “get” Trump. Guess what! I was wrong!
The very thing I thought wouldn’t happen until August of this year, people saying “let the people decide in 2020” has already begun. It’s happening now. So, there’s no window of opportunity to “get” Trump politically. We’re stuck with him until at some point in the 2021 – 2023 period for no other reason than The Resistance is so hopelessly divided between the extreme Left that wants everyone to free bleed or be transgendered (Wink! Just kidding!) and the Centrists who just want Obama to come back from grabbing a pack of cigs at the corner store.
Hyperbole aside, right now Trump’s re-election prospects stand at 100% in my mind.
Here’s where things get really, really messy.
I see Trump politically as a chronic illness that if not properly treated can go septic at any moment. In practical terms, that means Trump is perpetually both doing fine and about to be removed from office at the same time. This can go on for a very, very long time.
But the absolute worst case scenario is this — The Mueller Report is as big as we all hope / fear and it all happens not in the context of a Congressional mid-term, but a presidential election. The absolute worst case scenario for everyone involved is Trump realizes he faces the prospect of jail time if he loses in 2020 or is otherwise removed from office. You can babble about state crimes all you want, but apparently New York State still has an anti-double jeopardy law on the books, and, as such, Trump will likely be able to weasel his way out of it if the Federal statute of limitations expires.
Now, from Trump’s point of view, a series of things would have to go wrong for the absolute, total worst case scenario to happen. For me, that would be Trump facing a material existential threat to his administration using a metric that Blue Check Liberals would see as valid.
So, to get to that point, first, The Mueller Report has to be REALLY BAD. But even that isn’t really that bad for him. Even if “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy,” if we don’t see it because Attorney General Bill Barr pulls some stupid justification out of his ass, then Trump is safe. I say this because if the most damning aspects of Mueller’s report are held up in the courts until after election day 2020, then we will have lost the battle, but been set up for winning the war against the American Nazis that are MAGA.
But, let’s suppose things continue to get worse for Trump.
So, let’s say Bill Barr decides he has some sense of honor (and wants to do his good friend Bob Mueller & or the America people a solid) and he releases the “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy” part of the report to Congress. This promptly is leaked to the American press and it goes off like a H-Bomb across political Washington.
Now, I’m pretty sure all we’d get is simply silence from the Right Wing Echo Chamber for about 24 hours until they got their talking points. There will never, ever, ever be a point when MAGA does the Pence Pivot until it’s politically expedient using white knuckled political calculations.
Things would have to continue to get worse for Trump if the “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy” move for impeachment / conviction were to continue to move forward at this point as the 2020 campaign really began to pick up steam.
Remember, at every single moment, Republican MAGA will object to doing anything because they’ll say, “let the people decide in 2020.” And once Trump is re-elected, they’ll crow that Trump’s been vindicated and why don’t you just shut up about it all and enjoy the humming economy. (If Trump loses in 2020 — which he won’t — I don’t know what they’d do. Probably start a civil war.)
So for there to be serious talk of Trump being not only impeached in the House but convicted in the Senate, Mueller would have to lay out in a material way that not only did Trump and the Russians give each other a handjob, but that they took it to the next level and at the direction of the Russians, Trump fired the head of the FBI!
I just don’t see that happening.
I could see on a political level it being seriously suspected, but if Mueller actually could prove anything, ANYTHING CLOSE to that, Trump’s goose it fucking cooked.
In fact, I would go so far as to say that’s literally the only way that it’s actually possible that we might see Trump in front of the Senate for trial late enough in the 2020 campaign that some seriously fucking surreal things would happen.
I mean, imagine if Mueller had Trump dead to rights for the Russians directing him to fire Comey and yet Trump’s base of about 37% (80% of the Republican electorate) simply didn’t care and re-nominated him. Imagine the CNN split screen of Trump giving his re-nomination speech as very annoyed Republican Senators contemplated his removal from office for effective treason.
And it gets worse. Much, much worse.
In this absolute worst case scenario, Trump is convicted in the Senate.
And he refuses to leave the Oval Office.
Just won’t leave. He spends all day, for weeks, hold up in the White House with the FBI struggling to figure out what to do as he tweets and tweets and tweets extremely passive-aggressive shit about how everyone wants him to kill himself or how he could kill himself because of those “radical Democrats.” (I said this was worst case scenario, folks.)
How this would all end, I don’t know.
I think it would be with a 9/11 level amount of national heartbreak when the FBI, sensing that the MAGA shitheads are going to do something crazy like try to form a human shield around the White House will have to go in and physically remove Trump from office.
It’s not going to be pretty and I hope, for Christ’s sake, it doesn’t happen.
I just want Trump politically destroyed. On a human level, I hope he lives long enough to have his mind uploaded into a database so he can live for fucking forever.
Anyway, reality is much more likely to be a lot more soft, take a lot longer and be a lot more inconclusive than my dire worst-case scenario.
by Shelton Bumgarner
A Constitutional Crisis usually happens not because the system doesn’t work, but because human nature runs up against at cross purposes in a quirky way that one could never foresee.
As such, given my back-of-the-envelope knowledge of the Special Council guidelines, it seems there’s a quirk that might cause the entire American Constitutional system to freeze up until someone blinks.
The potential Constitutional Crisis goes something like this: Attorney General Bill Barr being a Trump loyalist takes one look at what is laid out in the Mueller Report and sends over a few pages summing up that while some seriously shady shit happened between the Russians and the Trump Campaign, because it did not reach the level of statute for “conspiracy,” no collusion happened (even though the two things are not the same.)
Now, the crisis kicks in when one of two things happen — Barr words what he sends to Congress in some a way that it’s obvious that he’d hiding some seriously big news against the Trump Administration or it leaks out that while Trump, Don Jr. or Jared weren’t actually indicted by Mueller, a propendency of evidence points to Trump himself needing to be indicted….
…but he can’t be indicted because of DOJ guidelines…
So we would have a massive clusterfuck on our hands as Trump hunkers down to not release this information (even though he’s been babbling about the need for “transparency” for months now ) because for the ostensible reason of not “casting aspersions against the assumed innocent” (him). But because in that case only Congress could weigh the political necessity of impeachment first in the House and later in the Senate (hopefully) if they don’t get that information, they can’t very well do the job of impeachment properly.
This tug of war could go on for some time, bouncing back and forth in the Courts long enough for Trump to sail to reelection and they we actually get into the business of getting rid of Trump at some point between 2021 and 2023. The absolute worse case scenario being, of course, that Trump does Nixon one better and simply ignores SCOTUS should they somehow have a shred of decency left and vote against him when it comes to releasing as much of The Mueller Report as possible. (Given that this would likely happen in the middle of a Trump’s re-election campaign…I think he probably would ignore SCOTUS until after he’s been re-elected.)
And, yet, if you’re a Trump supporter — or one of his dipship lackies — I wouldn’t whip out your cock and start stroking it for joy quite yet. Remember, the reason why The Mueller Report is actually so important is because it will kind of mark a significant moment in the Trump Era because the now Democratically controlled House will have to weigh the political moment to see if it’s worth finally beginning the process of impeachment.
This is going to happen no matter what we learn — or don’t learn — about Trump via The Mueller Report, even if all the most damning aspects of it never see the light of day. Once the House realises they can’t use The Mueller Report as political cover, they’re going to keep investigating Trump anyway and while it might take some time, Trump’s going to have to account for his political sins at some point in the future by, say, 2023.
Or put it another way — Trump’s second term is going to fucking suck.
It’s a historical truth that typically presidential second terms are much, much worst than the first and Trump’s is unlikely to be any different. In fact, in a way, Trump’s second term, in itself, is an existential threat to Trump’s political future.
What I mean is, I give up on getting rid of Trump between 2019 and early 2021. We’re stuck with him, no matter what.
But once his second term starts, the clock resets. We have a solid three years before the talk of “letting the people decide Trump’s legacy” begins in about 2023. As such, if the House stays Democratic, which it should, Trump’s totally fucked.
He. Is. Fucked.
If he’s not driven out of office, he’ll be impeached and come extremely close to being convicted in the Senate. In fact, he might actually even be convicted in the Senate. Yes, if you’re MAGA, you’ll have had a solid six or so years of destroying America, inciting needless violence and racial discord. You’ll have had the opportunity to ram young, conservative hacks into the Judiciary. You will have gotten your tax cuts. You will have had the opportunity to destroy the environment and either destroy or dramatically change the nature of the “administrative state.”
But let one thing be clear — the political depth charge that will be Trump’s final demise at some point between 2021 and 2023 is likely to be so dramatic, so surreal and so damaging to the long-term MAGA agenda, that you fucktards might at least pause between counting your tax cuts long enough to reflect on how maybe, just maybe Trump might have been something we could have avoided if we’d be a little less craven.
So, people like me just have to hunker down for just over 2 years.
Once we lose the 2020 election and Trump runs around naked on the National Mall proclaiming his “vindication” and pardons every MAGA person in America of every crime they’ve ever thought about committing, just know that the clock, at last, is finally ticking.