The Dead Hand Of History Suggests Either Trump ‘Doesn’t Lose’ Or The Country Implodes After The Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The weird thing about the modern era, is I’ve read enough history books to know some sense of how they would describe what’s going on around us — our Republic is becoming an empire. It definitely seems as though one scenario would the United States becomes a semi-monarchial autocratic state with a House Trump that rules the country (poorly) until the Browning of America makes their rule untenable.

It definitely seems as though This Is It. Trump, with the help of the Russians hacking directly into our election systems, will “not lose.” He strangles any semblance of liberal democracy in the United States and whatever’s left is allowed to exist because it’s not a threat. In fits and starts over the next two year or so, Trump accelerates our drive towards autocracy and that’s that. That definitely seems to be the path we’re on right now.

What’s worse, if the Russians somehow allow Biden to win, then we face a different problem — MAGA-Qanon could very well begin to blow shit up and actually start killing people (like me!) out of spite in support of The Dear Leader. They try to sucker punch the center-Left, deliver a knock-out blow. Given that they will have the full authority of the Trump regime on their side, it definitely seems as though they will get away with it.

Of course, Trump is such an incompetent moron, that there’s at least a small chance that even with the legal might of Interior Secretary Bill Barr at his disposal, he’s so ham-handed and brazen in his Very American Coup that the country implodes for no other reason than Trump finally jiggles American self-perception enough that conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA finally get woke. That really seems like a liberal fever dream at this point, but who knows.

The 2020 election definitely has a 1860 vibe to it, is all I gotta say. It feels as though the nation is at a crossroads and because MAGA is so insane, if they don’t get what they want, it seems reasonable to assume they’re going to start killing people (like me!) The question, of course, is what our reaction to such behavior will be.

I honestly don’t know.

The New Normal


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Our absolute best case scenario at this point is Trump will be a one term president who has a political legacy equal to the Reagan Revolution. There will be a new normal where the Trump Deep State actively attempts to destroy the administration of any Democrat that doesn’t toe the MAGA line.

That’s the best case scenario.

I say that because the dead hand of history would suggest that Trump isn’t going anywhere for any reason. Trump is actively working to turn the United States into an autocrat state and it would make absolutely no sense for him to allow himself to “lose” for any reason.

Add to this how the Russians are very likely to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from German and it will be the biggest shock of my adult life if Trump ever leaves office for any reason.

Even if the Russians for some reason allow a Biden landslide, the damage Trump has done to the administration of government is so horrific that I find it difficult to imagine that things are going to just snap back to “normal.” Trump is our political herpes.

Or, put another way, the only upside to Trump’s tyranny is a lot of macro pressure on our political system has been eased because craven Republicans go two things they lusted after — young hack MAGA judges and a gratuitous tax cut for plutocrats that punishes Blue States. Republicans still hate democracy because they hate the Browning of America and the rise of women as a cultural and economic force, but if the Russians don’t do what I expect and Trump loses, at least they got there two big goals.

As their base grows smaller and more angry, they will use their control of the Judiciary and Trump’s new Deep State to create the conditions for them to get back power as quickly as possible. Every time they get power, it will grow a quantum leap more difficult to get them out of power. In the end, it will become completely impossible and at some point the country implodes and it’s every man for himself.

That implosion may happen in 2020, or it may happen between now, and, say, 2028. But it is going to happen for no other reason than Republicans have learned a lot from Trump and they will re-calibrate according to his weaknesses. If the implosion doesn’t happen, it will be because the next time they get to put an autocrat in power, he will be far more focused and organized.

But I still think everything is moot. Trump is never leaving office. Most Americans aren’t willing to risk their “lives and scared honor” in the real world to do anything about it.

So, soon enough, the United States will leave NATO, form some sort of new alliance with a number of autocratic states across the world and begin snatching people off the street and pushing them out of windows. This is going to happen, it’s just a matter of how long it takes.

If it doesn’t happen, it will be because people get woke and there’s a national implosion. I’m not advocating that. I don’t want that. But the macro trends indicate that if we don’t get woke on a mass level that Republicans are hell bent on turning us into an autocratic, American version of apartheid South Africa.

The Only Way To Save The Republic Is A Biden Landslide


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a very good chance that mysteriously Trump will win the electoral college in exactly the same way he did in 2016. We will all be in shock. We will write it off to all the boat parades or the “shy Trump voter” or whatever. At some point — maybe never — we will learn, however, that the Russians fucked with our election systems and threw election to Trump.

The darkest scenario, of course, is we will learn this happened before the Electors Vote, TrumpBarr lulz it and fight the issue in the courts and Trump STILL “wins” the election because of a 6-3 (5-4?) vote at SCOTUS. In fact, that definitely seems to be the failsafe for Republicans at this point. This are so rabid in their desire to win the election that they are completely oblivious to the political consequences of such behavior that it’s definitely the setup for The Big Ugly of civil war or revolution.

But, even without Russian help, if the election is anywhere close, we’re going to have not a Brooks Brothers Riot, but a Brooks Brothers War. There could be real, unprecedented political violence across the country as it becomes clear that TrumpBarr intends A Very American Coup. They already are suing everything that moves before the election, you can only assume that if they believe they have any — ANY — shot of stealing the election through extra-political means, they will pull that particular trigger.

So, really, the only way we keep the Republic is if somehow the Russians don’t do what I assume they’re going to do and Biden wins in such a massive landslide that it at least grows more difficult for TrumpBarr to pull of A Very American Coup — even though, obviously, they will try anyway.

I just don’t see how the post-election period isn’t one of unprecedented instability and even violence if Biden doesn’t win in a massive landslide. The Republican party simply doesn’t see democracy as valid if it isn’t helping them obtain or maintain power, so, lulz.

If A Hunter Biden Deep Fake Pops Out, It Will Probably Be This Weekend


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For the moment, I’m wrong. Even though all the conditions have been established for a Hunter Biden “deep fake” to pop out of that dubious laptop, it hasn’t happened yet. And, yet, today is the 4 year anniversary of the Second Comey Letter. As such, it seems it’s a now-or-never kind of situation.

It would make sense for such a deep fake to mysteriously appear in the far Right social media echo chamber right about NOW. Or it will be released by Rudy via social media. Or, hell, it could even be Trump himself. Trump is a deranged moron with an existential fear of being prosecuted should he leave office. So, really, anything could happen between now and election day.

I will be the first to admit that I was wrong if we come to election day and no deep fake has come out. In my defense, I have repeatedly said that I come up with such dark scenarios as a defense mechanism. It’s not like I have any credibility to squander, as well.

But it just made sense to me that all the dark predictions we’ve been hearing about weaponized deep fakes would happen in 2020 because, well, a lot of bad actors on the global scene desperately want Trump to stay in office. And he’s more than willing to accept such help.

Or, put another way, autocrats never lose. Trump is a lazy, incompetent autocrat, but he’s still a fucking autocrat.

‘A Very American Coup:’ Russian Hacking, SCOTUS & A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the conditions are there for a truly nightmarish scenario. Imagine this happens — Trump just barely wins / loses Pennsylvania and or Florida. It’s so close that people begin to wonder how this is possible. Soon enough, we learn that the Russians fucked with our election systems.

Now, logically, one would say, we would figure out who really won — Biden — and then the Electors would vote for him.

But, no, what might happen is this is such a massive clusterfuck that it goes to SCOTUS and Trump wins 6-3 there. This, even though it’s obvious that the Russians were working hand-in-glove with the Trump Campaign to pull this off. I keep saying this would be because of a quid pro quo to remove 1/3 of our troops from Germany, but, lulz.

Of all the nightmare scenarios I’ve come up with, this has got to be the worst. Imagine if the very same thing that allowed Trump to win in 2016 was taken to the next level in the sense that not only did we all know that Trump won with Russian help, but SCOTUS aided and abetted this traitorous plot.

If that didn’t cause significant political violence, I don’t know what would. The country would implode and then a civil war / revolution would happen. Or, at least, we would come the closest we’ve come since the original civil war. Trump would use the violence as an excuse to use the Insurrection Act and assume the “total control” that Roger Stone suggested.

The only reason why I believe this is possible is Russia wants to destroy the United States and if they’re not going to shoot their shot in 2020, when are they going to? So, it makes sense that they would pull the trigger on their ability to fuck directly with our election systems. All the conditions are there for them to do just that. Trump is a Russian agent. The entire Republican edifice is complicit in this.

I don’t want any violence, but elections are a game of expectations. If it becomes clear that Biden won on a strictly political level and yet our tyrannical moron autocrat wins not only because the Russians fucked with our election systems but SCOTUS abided by this act, then, well, all bets are off.

But, who knows, it’s possible we’ll just get a lot of angry Tik-Tok videos if this nightmare scenario happened. Things would have to get pretty bad for The New York Times to admit that, yes, in fact, a coup was taking place.

‘A Very American Coup’ Would Not Happen In A Political Vacuum


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s very easy to map out — especially in Pennsylvania — the makings of “A Very American Coup.” Because of the issue of “intermingling” of votes that SCOTUS might rule ex post facto illegal, there’s a chance that the fucking asshole MAGA Pennsylvania legislature might name their own electors in a giant fuck you to what’s left of American democracy.

Now, let’s put that in some context.

First, on a strictly political level, there are definitely rumbles of a Reagan Revolution-sized blowout for Biden. A total rejection of Trump, MAGA and Qanon. But that’s strictly the political metric. We’re dealing with an insane, rabid Mad King Trump who knows he might face personal criminal liability if he actually leaves office. As such, there’s a decent chance that his removal of 1/3 of our troops from Germany wasn’t just one of his asshole moves because he doesn’t like Angela Merkel. It could be that Trump did that specifically to ensure that the Russians will hack directly into our election systems so Trump wins. And, really, it could be they don’t even have to make him “win” so much as make the election appear so close in places like — you guessed it — Pennsylvania that the whole Very American Coup can take place.

I’m the first to admit how hyperbolic, paranoid and hysterical that all sounds. But it is something we have to consider — TrumpBarr is going to attempt a coup. An actual, honest-to-God coup in the United States in 2020. And with an assist from the Russians, no less!

What is so annoying — and troubling — about this particular nightmare scenario is there’s known endgame. I would like to think that all those lotte swilling soyboys in hipster coffee shops might sit up and take notice at such an brazen attack on our system of government, but, lulz, who knows. It’s possible they’ll stop smelling their own farts just long enough to do mean Tik-Tok video about it all and then go back to whatever it is they do.

Or, put another way, if TrumpBarr does attempt A Very American Coup, people are going to have to risk things that are important to them in the real world. People might get hurt. Careers ruined. Families destroyed. Real, honest to go real world adult stuff that can’t be fixed by a bunch of celebrities singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” poorly.

I honestly can’t give you an answer as to what might happen. It’s possible it would be simply an extreme version of 2000. Instead of a Brooks Brothers Riot, there is actual rolling political violence on the far Left and far Right while the middle simply wants it all to go away. Which, of course, would allow TrumpBarr to use the Insurrection Act to do just that.

The issue we have to grapple with is — if the only way we can possibly save 240 years of democratic tradition in the United States is a massive, self-evident landslide for Biden, we got some serious, serious existential problems in our country. Under the absolute best case scenario, we’re stuck with hundreds of young hack MAGA judges and a bankrupt treasury because of craven taxcut by Republicans.

Even if we physically remove Trump from the White House– which is debatable, no matter what — we will have a lingering Trump Deep State that is going to do everything in its power to destroy the Biden Administration. All of the systemic political rot that produced Trump will still be there. We’re going to be fucked for a generation.

And, lying in wait will be about a dozen would-be actual autocratic presidents chomping at the bit to do everything the people who voted for Trump in 2016 thought he was going to do.

Or, put another way, the only way we punt the crisis of Trumpism is a historic Biden landslide. But it would just be a punt. And, in all honesty, such a landslide might be the very thing that causes MAGA-Qanon to finally freak out and start blowing shit up. Things really are that bad in America right now.

We have some deep seated, existential problems in our political system that are intractable. I have no idea how they’re going to be solved.

The Tyranny Of Trump’s Instability


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is talks big but often folds in a dramatic, unexpected fashion. He does this all the time. And, yet, faced with the very real possibility of criminal liability should he leave office, there’s a chance he’ll destroy the United States in order to prevent that from happening.

So, you just don’t know.

What makes Trump so difficult to predict is he’s such a combination of would-be autocrat combined with incompetence and malicious showmanship that you often assume the absolute worst from him. Then, he can’t follow through. Or, put another way — it’s similar to how voters assumed they were getting the guy from The Appearance when they were just getting an empty suit.

But there is the issue of Barr. Interior Minister Bill Barr, having successfully managed the media narrative of The Mueller Report, has every reason to believe he can do the same thing with the 2020 Election. And the more difficult doing so becomes, the more radical he and Trump are likely to become.

And, yet, as I said, Trump is both so incompetence and erratic that virtually anything is possible. It could be that Trump simply salts the earth on the way out. Or he quits and gets Pence to pardon him. Or he pardons himself. There is a huge spectrum of different worse case scenarios to choose from. And all of them, given the information available, would make sense as possibly happening.

All I know is, the next three or so months are going to be just like Trump — surreal and unpredictable.

Election 2020 Known Unknowns


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

How Tight Is It Going To Be?
On one hand, you have indications that we’re going to have a massive number of people voting, which would help Democrats in general. On the other hand, it’s possible that because of the Electoral College and the 48 – 48 split of the nation that even that won’t be enough to give us what we need: a massive blowout to such an extent that it makes it much more difficult for Trump to pull off A Very American Coup.

Russians Hacking Into Our Election Systems
I rant about this a lot, but I don’t, like, KNOW that this will happen. But Russia loves Trump so much that it makes sense that Trump removed 1/3 of our troops from Germany as a direct quid pro quo for the Russians hacking directly into our election systems. I could very well see Trump just barely winning Pennsylvania — and a few other states — and we’d just write it off to the 2016 effect of a split popular / Electoral College vote. We could simply never know what the Russians did. Maybe when AOC is let out of prison in 40 years we’d find out about it. But by that point, lulz.

Is Trump Too Incompetent & Lazy?
While Trump is an autocrat, he is a very lazy and incompetent autocrat. The thing that might cause him to overcome these basic aspects of his personality would be his abject fear of going to prison after leaving office. As such, it’s possible that using Barr he will stage A Very American Coup and never fucking leave office for any fucking reason. This is a very reason possibility — especially if there is any doubt on election night who won.

Are Americans Will To Risk Real World Things?
If TrumpBarr do stage A Very American Coup, is the average American willing to actually risk things that are important to them in the real world for the sake of the country? That’s probably the biggest known unknown. It could be that while there might be a bit of violence here and there, really all that would happen is a lot of angry Twitter threads.

October Surprises
Every day we get closer to the Election, the likelihood that something fucking bonkers is going to happen to upend the whole thing. I keep thinking it’s going to be a Hunter Biden Laptop Deepfake, but who knows. One thing is for sure — we’re already an autocratic managed democracy and for Trump to not think up some bullshit October Surprise would definitely not make any sense. So, it seems logical that things are going to turn on a dime and Trump is going to magically be in the lead again.

The Big Ugly
The weird thing about Trump is he literally keeps inciting violence and no one listens to him. The question is — is it possible that the moment it seems as though Trump is actually going to lose, will Right Wing nutjobs start to blow shit up in an effort to scare us into letting Trump stay in office? Or, put another way, it definitely seems as though an extra-political solution to Election 2020 is on the table if Trump loses by every other metric. It could be that the country convulses no matter who wins the election for any reason because we’re just too divided and it’s just our fate to have a revolution / civil war in 2020.

The Trump Deep State


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, if Trump somehow left office — even after a massive Biden landslide — it would be the biggest shock of my life. Trump is an autocrat — if a very incompetent one — and, as such, he will never “lose” in the sense that he will never fucking leave office for any fucking reason. He would rather destroy the country, bring it to its knees, than leave office and risk personal criminal liability.

But let’s play pretend.

What I think will happen if we miraculously remove Trump physically from the Oval Office is he will salt the earth on the way out. He is going to install is own “deep state” in the Federal government that will do everything in its power to destroy the Biden Administration from within. In fact, I believe the Trump Deep State will be the biggest story of any putative “post-Trump” Era. That’s all we will talk about is how Trump appointees who are difficult — if not nearly impossible — to get rid of are doing everything in their power to hamper Biden.

We already see this with the head of American intelligence Ratcliffe. He’s an extreme MAGA partisan hack. There’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to be just that for as long as fucking possible. He’s going to actively fuck over Biden at every turn for as long as he’s in office. And Biden won’t be able to get rid of him, no matter what he does, because the entire Murdoch faux outrage machine will attack him for even thinking about it.

The point is — even if we get rid of Trump the person, his political herpes will continue to be a problem in American politics for years and years to come. And that’s the best case scenario — the worst case is the whole country goes tits up and we start killing each other. (I really hope I’m wrong on that last bit.)

The Crisis Of Anglo-America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love worst case scenarios because at least, then, I can prepare myself for the worst in some sort of concrete fashion. To me, the worst fear is an abstract fear because you don’t even know what you’re really afraid of.

Anyway, the conditions are there, at least for the two leading English speaking nations to completely implode this winter. The United States could implode if TrumpBarr attempts some sort of Very American Coup. The United Kingdom could implode if Hard Brexit happens on January 1st and it’s such a clusterfuck that Scotland bounces because it wants to remain a part of the EU.

I’m only dealing in conditions. It’s very possible that in the United States either Biden wins in a landslide or if Trump does win all that happens is there are a lot of angry Twitter threads and Tik-Tok videos from Claudia Conway. Otherwise, it’s a lulz. With the UK, it could be as an American I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should just, as always, ignore me with extreme prejudice.

The only reason why I think this worse case scenario is even possible is the United States and the United Kingdom have a tendency to follow each other politically on a macro level. This has happened to an eerie extent from when Margaret Thatcher won in the UK which was a prelude to the Reagan Revolution to the modern day. Who is Boris Johnson but just would-be British Donald Trump? In fact, the rise of Trump and the whole Brexit clusterfuck happened at just about the same time for similar reasons.

So, it would make sense that both those shit shows would wrap up at just about the same time, as well. Though, in the United States, if what I call “The Big Ugly” happens this fall-winter, it would be just the beginning of our problems, not the end of it.

No matter what, the Winter of 2020 is going to be a massive crisis for both the United States and the United Kingdom with no obvious endgame. We could possibly see a civil war / revolution in the United States and the simple dissolution of Europe’s last multi-ethnic state within days of each other. It could really get that deep.

One thing we all need to remember is in times of great upheaval things really don’t go in a straight line. There will be battles won and lost. Mistakes will be made for dumb reasons. And it may repeatedly look as though the forces of tyranny will win.

But in the United States, at least, I’m of the opinion that should the fucking fucktard MAGA-Qanon shitheads get their “civil war” they’re so eager to have, that the Blue States just might make them regret that wish. Or not. There’s no obvious endgame.

All I know is things are going to be lit.