Some Idle Biden Era Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Biden Will Be Impeached
The moment the House flips, Biden will be impeached over simply being Biden. That’s an absolute at this point.

Kamala Harris Will Face Pressure To Use The 25th Amendment
As we grow accustomed to the Biden Era, Biden will set the tone of his era, just like Trump did. And, as such, we’re going to notice that he IS a little bit senile. The FOX News bullshit echo chamber will latch on to this, and turn it into a regular Benghazi 2.

President Harris?
I have high hopes for Biden, but he’s old as hell. I wish him a long life and eight years in office, but he IS 78. So, somehow, some way, I just don’t see him lasting through his first term. I hope I’m wrong. I usually am. Harris will be a great president that will really shake things up — and, as such, get her into a huge amount of political trouble.

A Jarring Transition
We’re just not prepared for the Biden Era. It’s going to be a bumpy first few days and weeks after Biden is sworn in. We’re just not going to know what to do.

The Trump Deep State
One of the biggest problems for Biden will be The Trump Deep State. All those MAGA hacks now “burrowed” into the Federal government are going to come after Biden and his policies in a big way. By July, that could be what we’re all talking about.

Runaway Jury?
If Trump doesn’t play his cards right, his second impeachment trial in the Senate may serve the purpose of a Trump Era Truth and Reconciliation Commission in the sense that before we know it, folks like John Bolton and Don McGahn will be testifying at it in a new political Trial of The Century. The whole thing will drag out as each side throws more and more firepower at the issue.

Comparative Political History: The Paris Commune And The American Capitol Riot Of Jan. 6th, 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I barely know anything about the Paris Commune, but I know enough to know that it may be the closest comparison one can think up when it comes to the Capitol Riot of January 6th in Washington.

But there are some pretty big differences.

If you look back at what happened on January 6th, we were extremely lucky for a number of reasons — the riot didn’t really have any leaders and it didn’t really have any long-term agenda or ideology. It was just a smash-and-grab coup attempt.

But imagine if there had been some sort of leadership on January 6th. They could have established a security perimeter around the Capitol. They could have taken hostages and they could have formed a “government” at the Capitol building.

If they had had any organization or forethought, they could still be there right now, hold up at the Capitol in their own “commune.” I doubt they would have called it a commune, but that’s what it would have been.

They had a very specific historic opportunity and — thankfully — they completely blew it. They “caught the car” and then didn’t know what to do with it. There won’t be a next time.

Any coup-like event that occurs in the future is going to require a shit ton more work by those involved. I still think given macro trends that while there may still be significant political violence in the coming years, it’s the 2024-2025 period we need to keep an eye on.

The Curious Case Of Dua Lipa


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m rather indifferent about what Dua Lipa might — or might not — do with her image. But I’m of an age that there is something interesting she’s doing, or not doing, that is of note.

Where’s all the Dua Lipa T&A?

I grew up with Madonna getting naked as possible as often as possible. And, while we’re talking about Madonna versus Dua Lipa — holy shit is Dua Lipa a charisma heatsink. Ms. Lipa is going 100% by every other metric than what is more crucial for her to become a long-term success: she has no stage presence. She’s extremely stiff and can’t dance. So, while Ms. Lipa probably has a better singing voice than Madonna, she’s rather meh as a star.

Anyway.

Again, I don’t care one way or another, but Ms. Lipa is a stunning young woman and you’d think there would be a few “oopse, I showed a nipple!” or “here’s my buttcrack for the fans” picture that might pop out here or there.

In fact, the more I think about it, the more there is, strangely enough, not a lot of soft-porn in the music business anymore. We have Ariana Grande wanting to make everyone think she’s 12 years old while be about as sexualized as possible…and yet she’s never decided to make her think of her as more of an “adult” by getting nekkid.

I guess Miley Cyrus has a high T&A factor, but does she really?

I’m starting to think that The Powers That Be have made a collective decision not to show us as much T&A in the public square. Maybe as a result of #MeToo? Hmmm, what an interesting possibility?

Let me be clear — porn is still everywhere. But the usual running-around-nekkid practice of young female singers we grew accustomed to in the 80s, 90s, 00 seems to have abated.

Back to Ms. Lipa.

She’s drop dead gorgeous. If I was younger, she’d be a celebrity crush. But I’m too old for such things. She’s just an attractive young lady for me, the old coot.

‘Catching The Car:’ The Capitol Riot, Reassessed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing we have to appreciate is what a fluke the riot at the Capitol was on January 6th. While future history may prove me wrong — I’m often wrong — it definitely seems as though a lot of things went wrong at the same time on that date.

What happened January 6th was a classic instance of “catching the car.” How else do you explain how gleeful many of the people who participated were? In the moment, most of the people involved had no idea the gravity of what they had gotten themselves into. It was all a big party.

Or, once the beating the shit out of people phase was accomplished by nastier aspects of the mob, it was a party to everyone else. I almost went to DC to “cover” the event for myself and I now find myself sheepishly blanching at what I might have gotten myself into had I gone. I probably would have charged into the Capitol to cover such a historic event, only to get arrested for trespassing, etc.

So, in a sense, I dodged a bullet.

Anyway, I think, in a sense, the terrorists have won in the short term and we’re all terrorized while the actual threat is back to near-zero. So, we’re going through all this pretty much for no reason. The moment people started getting arrested for their participation in the Capitol riot, I think the threat evaporated.

There may be isolated political violence over the next four years, but the Big Ugly has been punted down the road to the 2024-2025 time frame for a number of reasons. A civil war / revolution is coming…just not right now.

In Defense Of Flowers


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have to get this off my chest.

I was listening to the Script Notes podcast — which is really good — and one of the hosts, Craig Mazin, off handedly said, in effect, he hated flowers.

Wait, what?

I’ve done a Twitter video about this already that Mazin saw and responded to, natch, but the idea that someone like Mazin hates flowers really, really, grates on my nerves.

That someone like Mazin, who is an inspiration for someone like me, wouldn’t like flowers, is flabbergasting. The love of flowers, to me, is so basic to the human experience that to not like flowers it to not have a soul. Some 10,000 years ago, it’s likely a very tired hunter would pause after the hunt to pick up some flowers for his girl back at camp.

A basic appreciation of flowers is to be human. The beauty of flowers — like most beauty — is fleeting. As such, that’s the point of loving flowers. Men give women flowers because they’re both — in our eyes — beautiful and worthy of our respect and devotion. That women tend to like flowers more than men is a bonus — especially if you’re a man who’s in the dog house.

So it really bothers me that Mazin, who ‘s a great writer and storyteller, wouldn’t like flowers. That, in itself, makes me question some things. It gives me a bit of cognitive dissidence. I struggle to understand how someone who wrote Chernobyl, could not like flowers.

Anyway. I’ve belabored this point too much. But I had to vent again.

The Metrics Of Normality


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve always been something of a kook. I have never known what I was supposed to do. Or, using the metrics of, say, a New York Times reporter, I’m nothing more than an Internet crank.

The few times I’ve interacted with New York Times people, I’ve had no complaints. Though, I have to admit that Maggie Haberman was randomly mean to me on Twitter when I accused her of doing “access journalism.”

I have to admit to myself that if you combine my age with my general “delusional jerk with a good heart” personality that, well, “normal” people are going to dismiss me. And, really, there’s probably nothing I can do at this point to fix the problem.

I’ve been too conspicuous in various ways on the Internet in my numerous flights of fancy since I left South Korea. There’s no going back. I’m just a middle aged weirdo at this point.

Even if something were to change my lot in life, it would be nothing more than a recontextualizing of my weirdo life. I would be praised to the extent that successful people are respected for….being successful.

It’s just taken me too long to get to the point where I know who I am and have the wherewithal to do anything about it. In other words, I could save the sweet baby Jesus out of the Hudson River and within 24 hours I would be just another Ken Bone.

My life doesn’t fit the media narrative, for better or worse.

Maybe some of this is me thinking about how the rules of life change as you go older and nobody tells you? It sucks. It really sucks.

But you have to have hope. If you don’t have hope, spring in your step and a mischievous glint in your eye no matter what, then, really, what do you have?

‘Nowhere Man’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I could drop off the face of the earth right now and no one would notice. Or, it would take a while for anyone to wonder where I was

And, yet, I’m quite content.

But it’s the element of being a big olde nobody that makes me curious why anyone — and I mean ANYONE — would possibly be interested in me for any reason. Someone who is a “Public Relations Specialist” searched for me on LinkedIn and that’s something of a big deal for me.

And then there are a few people who have become near-obsessive readers of this blog who I find both flattering and puzzling. Why is someone from Silicon Valley obsessing over this blog? Doesn’t make any sense.

I think back to the few times I’ve actually interacted with non-nonbodies and sometimes I wince. But other times, I look back fondly that I got to share a moment of time with them. In another day, I probably would have been someone who got stars’ autographs.

As it stands, though, I’m just a nobody. An anonymous nobody with a lot of dreams. That’s it.

I Just Don’t See A Second American Civil War (Or Revolution) Anytime Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have every reason to be nervous. It definitely seems as though the United States is about to have some sort of civil war or MAGA revolution pretty soon. But I seriously doubt it…for now.

It may happen at some point around 2024-25, but not right now. The people who would be doing a civil war or revolution need to organize and marinate in their hate a few more years before they can actually pull it off.

Right now, it’s all abstract. Right Wing nutjobs in vague terms want to burn it all to the ground, but…they’re all talk for the time being. What made what happen on January 6th such a wake up call was they weren’t all talk for once and, what’s more, POTUS was the guy who pushed them over the edge.

Trump right now seems pretty chill. He’s almost in hiding.

So, unless he snaps in a rather unexpected fashion, I think we’re fine for the next few years. But, as always, anything can happen, I guess.

‘Strange Days’ of Digital Telepathy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The smartphone was the last technology that changed lives for the average person in a big way. I propose that if what I believe to be true, is true, that Big Tech can read our minds in some way, then a “soft Singularity” may already be here.

There is technology described in Arthur C. Clarke’s “3001: The Final Odyssey” and the movie “Strange Days” which could probably be implemented in a primitive fashion far, far, sooner than you realize — digital telepathy. Imagine instead of having a cellphone or MX goggles, you could interact directly with your mind.

I’m not going to tell you exactly what I’m suggesting for my own reasons, but in general, there’s one way you could do all of this without accidently giving yourself a lobotomy during the development process. You’re smart, you can figure it out. It would be a lot less intrusive than a Neural Link, that’s for sure. Jesus.

But the point is, all this talk of MX (VR / AR) misses the point. What if the “AR” was a different type of augmented reality. You could record memories recorded via your own eyes — no goggles involved — then zap those same memories to other people wirelessly? But if you hooked MX up to digital telepathy, it sure does make a lot more sense on the adoption front as well. You could watch movies natively within your own mind’s wetwear. Listen to music in your mind, the list goes on.

If you believe — like I do — that Big Tech can read your mind RIGHT NOW, then it makes a lot of sense that the solution to the MX social adaption problem will be solved in a rather unexpected fashion.

I’m not suggesting this will happen anytime soon, but I am suggesting we’re asking some wrong questions about What’s Next. It could be that by 2030 that a big chunk of our economy — and the way we live on a practical basis — will be controlled via digital telepathy.

Read ‘3001: The Final Odyssey’ For Inspiration For A $1 Trillion Industry


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If I was Elon Musk, I would flip through Arthur C. Clarke’s “3001: The Final Odyssey” for some inspiration.

As I recall, the book has a very specific plot point that could change the world rather rapidly, given existing technology.