My Hot Take On The Governor Cuomo Nursing Home Deaths Debacle


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I totally think that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo deserves all the hot water he is currently in. If that means he gets impeached for his current nursing home debacle, so be it. But I’ve been forced to consume Fox News hysterical coverage of this clusterfuck and here is my hot take.

  1. I Thought All This Was a “Media Hoax.”
    We’ve come a long way from Fox News being the amen choir to Trump’s bonkers ranting about how COVID-19 was just a “MEDIA hoax” meant to hurt him politically. Now, Fox News is pretty much lost it’s fucking mind going after Cuomo. Talk about media hoax!
  2. What Cuomo Did Was Wrong. But So Was What Trump Did
    We’re now at 500,00 deaths from COVID-19 because Trump was a lazy, incompetent doofus who didn’t care about the rising death toll. He did such a bad just that that, in itself, should be enough to drive him from public life, never to be seen again.

    So, fuck you, Fox News.

‘Night Monster’ — A COVID-19 Themed Song Concept


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I grow more serious with this novel, I find it more and more a waste of time to write lyrics and post them on the Internet. Now that I have some sense that I can write a novel on a (potentially) professional level, if I’m going to write pop song lyrics I’m going to be just as serious with them too.

But anyway, someone needs to write a COVID-19 themed song called “Night Monster.” When (I think) I had COVID-19 a few days ago, it came out at night to make me miserable.

Here’s how I would produce it’s sound.

Start off of with song.

Then throw in this song:

Then, lastly, a little bit of this one.

No one listens to me. I need to learn how to play guitar so I start writing song lyrics seriously once I get through this novel project in its totality.

Seems like Billie Eilish would be the perfect vocalist.

Cancel Thanksgiving


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All things being equal, we need to cancel 2020’s Thanksgiving. I’m not an expert on viral transmission, so please ignore me with extreme prejudice, but it makes sense that Thanksgiving would be national superspreader event waiting to happen.

We’re already projected, as I understand, to reach 2,000-3,000 daily deaths by mid-December, so having a bunch of people — many of them elderly — cooped up in a home together without masks for a long weekend doesn’t seem like all that great an idea.

But, of course, since we have a deranged moron as our president at least until January 20th, there’s a good chance we will have zero national leadership on this subject. Any “canceling” of Thanksgiving will happen in fits and starts and according to where you sit on the political spectrum.

So, we really are going to have a “dark winter.” By January 20th, 2021, we may have a daily COVID19 death toll reaching something close to 10,000. It definitely seems as though at a minimum we,we are going to reach the 600,000 dead of the 1918 – 1920 Spanish flu very, very soon.

Comparative Political History: Claudia Conway & Martha Mitchell


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You know you live in surreal times when have to start wondering if a 15-year-old should be up for the Pulitzer Prize. But, here we are.

But let’s look into the person who Miss Conway is most analogous to: Watergate’s Martha Mitchell. She was called “the Mouth of the South” and loved to gossip. In 1972, she overheard her husband — Attorney General Bob Mitchell — talking about the Watergate coverup.

We’re sorry, Martha.

Her husband found out and for her troubles she was tranquilized and held captive. (If I remember the story correctly.) Because she was so outrageous and kooky, when she started rambling about the Watergate coverup, no one believed her — they thought she was a nut.

The weird thing about Miss Conway is, to date, she’s been able to speak freely on Tik-Tok (of all things.) So, the question is — can we trust her? I think so. What we can’t understand is the internal dynamic of the Conway family and how it is she can blab about such important things without fear of retribution. So, that, in itself, makes you scratch your head and wonder if any of this can possibly be true.

Anyway.

Things are weird right now.

The Darkest Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of right now, it seems as though Trump is going to be fine. There may be a lot of rumors about him being near-death, but just like Little Rocket Man, he’ll pull through and be fine. He can go about his work of destroying the Republic unfettered.

But, let’s imagine that doesn’t happen.

Two major issues immediately confront us — what to do with Republican ticket and any political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon who think it’s all a Deep State effort to stop Trump from taking “total control.”

The Ticket
The few MAGA people I talk to say Pence is not for them. So, it seems as though there will be a very brutal power struggle to figure out who will lead the Republicans. Because he’s already on the ticket, Pence has the 9/10th rule on his side. But this things may grow very untenable for him politically very quickly. I could see Ivanka becoming the Republican nominee or some negotiated deal whereby Pence promises to name her veep should he win. All I know is — House Trump ain’t going nowhere.

Violence
I believe the United States would suffer unprecedented political violence from the moment the Dear Leader flew his unicorn into the sky. In fact, it could be that Trump’s legacy may be the thing that brings down the Republic and pushes us into civil war / revolution, not the living Trump.

But I just don’t see either one of those being an issue. Just because Claudia Conway says he’s “sicker” than we’re being told, doesn’t mean anything. I would, however, check with her immediately if rumors of The Dear Leader’s demise pop out of the darkness.

House Trump’s ‘Regency’ & The Fate Of America — & Humanity


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me state that I think Trump is going to be fine. But, let’s suppose he’s a “long hauler” and is incapacitated by COVID19 for a longer amount of time. What happens?

The World Without The United States.

I think we’d have some sort of Regency, then. Probably made up of Ivanka, Jared and Barr. I say this because apparently Ivanka and Jared run everything already and Barr would be the goon that inforced everything legally.

This is how “Trump” would do exactly what we all expect him to do anyway — steal the election post-election. Now, this raises and interesting situation — what if Biden clobbers Trump politically and the House Trump Regency STILL tries to steal the election (which they will.)

This is a recipe for the United States to implode.What I mean by this is our national polity goes –poof! — and we devolve into our major local and regional polities. Even the U.S. Military may not be able to keep things together if that happens. They won’t chose POTUS, because they won’t exist.

Major polities in the US below the national level are California, Texas, the Deep South, the Northeast and NYC. If we were to, God forbid, Balkanize, those would be the polities that would sort things out.

Three things of note — if you keep California in the Union, then that’s the bedrock of any “Renewed American Covenant.” Texas is a real question mark as to which direction they would go which can be summed up by the question, “Is Texas American or Southern?” Also, there would likely be massive domestic political refugees as the Blue and the Red consolidated their political positions internally.

But, remember, the entire 70 year old liberal global order would go tits up the moment the US imploded, so the very existence of humanity might be in question as China-India-Pakistan-Israel-Iran-DPRK began to attempt to get a lot of their geopolitical dreams for no other reason than they know they can now.

Do I really think that’s going to happen — no.

But is something to at least take seriously enough to think about.

The Scenario That Dare Not Speak Its Name


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love scenarios. I also hate the idea of anything physical happening to POTUS, no matter who it is — even someone I keep calling an American Hitler like Donald fucking Trump.

The Scenario That Dare Not Speak Its Name.

Anyway, let’s run this one.

If Trump shuffles off this mortal coil, Pence becomes POTUS. But what happens to the Republican ticket? There are a number people Pence might pick. I think he goes with Ivanka Trump to “keep it in the family.” She’s moderate, she’s Jewish, she’s a woman and she a Trump. She seems the perfect veep to help Pence shore up those sweet, sweet excerb votes.

Other options are the obvious Nikki Haley and, gulp, Tom “Brown Shirt” Cotton. A long shot is maybe Eric Trump because he’s a Trump and doesn’t have the apparent and alleged drug problem that Don Jr. has.

Or, put it another way, don’t count House Trump out just yet.

Meanwhile, I would assume that the race will get far closer. Like 1976 or 2000 close. But at the same time, Pence has a traditional American pols adherence to democratic norms. So, things get a bit more tricky for MAGA-Qanon to go nuts on us.

But the key thing we have to remember is MAGA-Qanon is going to think that anything that happens to Trump is some sort of Deep State attack on the Dear Leader. They’re almost sure to blow something up or start running around murdering liberals because of this.

The point is — I want to defeat Trump politically. I want him to live long in prison with no access to the Internet and Putin and Ivanka his only visitors. Fuck that guy.

Don’t Panic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I do think that Trump has been asymptomatic far longer than anyone has told us, I think, in real terms, he’s fine. He’s got the best medical care in the world.

Even if he should hand over control to Pence, he won’t. So, for the next 48 hours or so, we’ll going to be a nation without a leader. This is a a very bad situation for Pax Americana, but lulz. Everything is very stupid.

We should be able to muddle through things like we always do. I just am not prepared to entertain the idea that this is not simply a speed bump on our way to either autocracy or implosion.

And I continue to have a lot of concern about the possibility that MAGA-Qanon, which is already a racist, misogynistic conspiracy theory wrapped around a lie, may freak out and start blowing shit up if they think this is all a Deep State attempt to hurt Trump and the movement.

This whole situation makes me queasy because of that aspect of it.

Trump seems immune to history or accountability. So there’s no reason to think he won’t be immune to this, too.

Was Trump’s COVID19 Announcement A ‘Controlled Roll Out?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something isn’t right about Trump’s announcement that he has COVID19. The sequence of events doesn’t make any sense. You mean to tell me that within a few hours of Hope Hicks getting it, Trump is just blurting out that he has it?

This leads me to a spectrum of possibilities. On one end we have this whole thing is a politically motivated hoax. Trump wants to juice the base by having them think he has COVID19. He doesn’t do anything for a few weeks, then pops out stronger than ever and wins.

On the other end of the spectrum, is something far darker.

Trump’s taken a turn for the worse in the last few hours and the controlled roll out of this news isn’t part of a hoax, it’s a way of slowly letting the country know that Trump is seriously ill. Like, Nearer my God to Thee sick.

That would explain why Bloomberg, of all media outlets, found out about Hope Hicks. She prepped the way for this particular crucial piece of information to “accidently on purpose” pop out.

I think the key to knowing what’s going on is what happens in the next 24 hours or so. If we have proof Trump is pretty much fine, then I’m more likely to believe he’s known he’s got COVID19 for some time and he’s just be asymptomatic. If he mysteriously goes dark for a the next few days, then we know Trump is actually really, really sick.

The one thing I’m extremely nervous about is the likelihood of significant political violence from insane MAGA-Qanon people who think all of this is some sort of Deep State plot to hurt Trump.

What We Can Learn From The 1st American Civil War As We Lurch Towards The 2nd (Maybe)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I generally think anyone — regardless of political stripe — is being a bloodthirsty moron to be giddy at the prospect of a “Second American Civil War.” War is hell. It sucks. I don’t want it.

But it definitely seems as though should Trump not win election outright on Election Night even though the Russians lived up to their end of the bargain after Trump pulled 1/3 of our troops out of Germany, that the more difficult it is for him to “win” the more thuggish and ham-handed he will become. As such, Barr’s post-election ratfucking can only go so far.

There might come a point when the Blue States and Red States are actually at each other’s throats on a military level.

The beginning of the ACW1 indicates that after the shock wears off, the dynamics of history are not something anyone can easily predict. The thing that idiot MAGA-Qanon people are so delusional about is they seem to think that just because they have Ben Shapiro and Charlie Kirk on their side that somehow they’re going to win outright the moment such political violence begins to happen.

What’s more likely to happen is after some desperate last-ditch efforts to prevent it all, there will be significant consolidation in the respective parts of the country. Once it sinks in to the average American that they have to pick a side, no matter what, then some pretty fucking surreal things may happen. People you wouldn’t expect finally jump ship from the MAGA-Qanon personality cult might actually do it.

Or, put another way, the opening days of any civil war are going to be full of confusion. Both sides are going to wait for the other to make the first move. Lincoln, of course, was a genius at this and forced the South to officially start the war when he attempt to re-enforce Fort Sumter. The specifics will be completely different because, well, Trump is a high-functioning moron who will thrash about on Twitter as everything finally collapses.

One crucial issue is what the goals of each side would be as the civil war began. A lot of people think the Blue States would simply want to bounce, but I have some serious doubts. It makes a lot more sense that any civil war would be a pitched battle for the soul of the country.

Another interesting thing is Trump has a solid 38% of the electorate. That’s it. About 38% of the electorate is bloodthirsty enough, enough in the personality death cult that they would lunge at the opportunity to make “Q’s” dream of a liberal free America a reality.

But there are a shit-ton of Americans who simply want to live a peaceful life in a free country. And, as such, it’s reasonable to believe that Blue States (once they get their shit together and start taking things seriously) have a lot going for them.

One issue is, while I can generally game out things to Election Day, after that, I lose any ability to predict what might happen. So, yeah, we have postal service ratfucking. We have the bullshit Durham Investigation. We have Russians hacking direction into our election systems. All those things are a given.

But if somehow all those things fail to throw the election to House Trump, I honestly don’t know what is going to happen. It’s all up in the air. Remember, when you’re actually living through history, there’s no narrative or value. We GIVE it a narrative and value after the fact. We do so in hindsight so we — and future generations — can grasp what happened and why.

I will note that the first few years of ACW1 were years in which it was very touch and go for the Union. It wasn’t until Lincoln decided to make the war a war of liberation that the dynamic of the war changed significantly. So, I would tell Neo-Confederates whose political thought is nothing more than a “South Will Rise Again” grunt that history — especially in times of existential crisis — doesn’t go in a straight line.

But what do I know. The dystopian hellscape is already here. I just want to finish my novel.