MAGA & The Crisis In Ukraine

by Shelt Garner

It’s a testament to how fucked up the American political system is right now that a powerful portion of electorate sees Putin’s autocratic managed-democracy as something to look up to.

Let me be clear from the beginning — I’m not expert on what’s going on in Ukraine with the Russians but I know enough to have an educated opinion. It definitely seems as though there’s a greater-than-zero-sum chance that the Russians might make some sort of power grab in the coming days. As such, it makes you wonder what the reaction of MAGA would be to such an event.

A lot depends on if any conflict between Ukraine and Russia is big enough to puncture the America’s inward looking media narrative bubble. If it’s simply a short, swift tactical attack then, lulz, it may be the focus of news junkies but in general Blue and Red will continue to be too busy plotting how we’re going to murder each other in cold blood for political reasons in four years to worry about it.

But, God forbid, it’s not just a tactical land grab but a significant war then there’s a possibility that much like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 1970s the event will come to dominate the American news cycle. And we really haven’t had such a conflict in the era of social media so it’s possible that both sides would flood Americans Facebook and Twitter feeds with gore and violence in an effort to swing public opinion.

That’s where MAGA gets involved.

It’s easy to imagine a scenario where MAGA gives full-throated support to the Russians to the point that, much like the COVID19 pandemic what you think about what should be done will be seen through the prism of your political affiliation.

The traditional Cold War dynamic might be turned upside down with MAGA Republicans siding with the Russians and everyone else siding with Ukraine. Though, to be fair, the dynamic would be a bit more complicated than that — a lot would rest on what Trump’s hot take on the situation was. A lot Establishment Republicans — especially in the Senate — would freak the fuck out if Russia attacked Ukraine in a major way and difference between MAGA Republicans and traditional conservative Republicans might be quite glaring.

And, remember, the last time Ukraine was part of public debate in the United States is was as part of Trump’s first impeachment trial. So there may be some lingering hostility towards Ukraine on the part of some Republicans that might not otherwise be there.

And, yet, I have my doubts that anything will come up Russia’s current shenanigans on the Ukrainian border. They do shit like this all the time and it’s possible after a few days this will recede from our attention like all the other times Putin has done similar things.

Of The Durham Investigation

by Shelt Garner

Now, I know how the world works, so if you’ve stumbled across the post because you’re some fucking Qanon shithead fucktard, please eat shit.

The current lingering “Durham Investigation” is only one of a host of ways the Trump Administration is going to steal the election in the fall. The Durham Investigation is looking into the origins of the investigation into Trump and Russia and given the overheated rhetoric it generates on the Right, it definitely seems as though they expect the entire Obama Administration to be frogwalked to Gitmo.

There is so much agitation about this, that I’ve come to believe that’s pretty much what’s going to happen. At some point between now and, say, mid-October, there will be bullshit criminal referrals for Joe Biden and President Obama. While Biden being charged is an obvious “duh,” Obama being charged would have a more subtle point to it: Trump would want to show what would happen if HE got charged in a sort of, “Well, if you think Obama being charged was bad, just wait until you try to charge ME.”

This is yet another concrete sign that the United States is now a fascist state. The sooner people like me acknowledge and accept it, the better. What this means in practical terms is Trump is never, ever leaving office for any reason and we need to begin making plans for what we’re going to do in Trump’s ill-gotten second term when people start getting pushed out of windows.

All I got is a novel I’m working on. Hopefully, I have a window of opportunity before freedom of speech is finally squelched for good.

None Dare Call It Treason #Trump

by Shelt Garner

The issue right now is if things really are as bad as we fear when it comes to TrumpBountyGate, what are we going to do about it? There really isn’t much that can be done as best I can tell. We can’t impeach Trump again until well into his second term. He’ll never resign. He’s going to steal the election with Russian help.

So, I don’t know.

This goes back to something that is central to the Trump Era — Trump is his own worst enemy. So, really, if we have him dead to rights on this issue, the thing that causes some serious accountability to come to him for once won’t be anything but himself. He may finally flip the fuck out.

I don’t even know how that might manifest itself. I think maybe he might finally snap in a really crazy way whereby he starts to tweet out the N-Word to Obama. Or maybe he joins Tik-Tok and starts to do dances there. Things that are simply so outside the bounds of normal behavior that someone, somewhere, finally sits up and takes notice.

But I’ve been let down by Congress so many times that I honestly don’t think anything of note is going to happen. After a few days of teeth gnashing, things will gradually go back to a Trump Era level of normality.

I would keep an eye on SCOTUS and Trump’s taxes. If Trump faces not only a pandemic and accusations of treason but his taxes being forced to be released as well, then, we may, at last, be going to the show.

The Mueller Report, Trump’s Taxes & (The Potential End of) The Trump Administration

by Shelt Garner

I often wonder what would be the real consequences if we found out Castro and the Mob were directly responsible for JFK’s death. All the principals would be dead. It might be give closure, but in real terms, it would be a big meh.

The reason I think about this a lot these days is not only the possibility that much of the Mueller Report might be unredacted by a Federal judge, but the small possibility that we might, at last, see Trump’s taxes. We’re so close to the election and Trump is obviously simply going to ratfuck his way into a second term, I honestly don’t see anything of note happening if we learn the absolute worst about Trump.

I mean, if we have absolute proof that Putin has near-absolute financial control over Trump Org…would it even matter at this point? Probably not. Trump is going to have a second term, no matter what and, in real terms, Trump faces one real threat and one real threat only: himself.

The only way I see anything of significance happening to the Trump Administration going forward is if Trump finally loses his fucking mind to the point that he, say, starts a war with the DPRK or something else of similar significance.

We probably would have a few days of uncertainty if Trump’s taxes came out, but in the end, we’re just too close to the election and Trump will never resign so, lulz.

Darkness has fallen.

Some Surreal Possible 2020 Futures

by Shelt Garner

Here are some possible — but reasonably unlikely — bonkers things that may happen still in 2020.

A War In Korea
Weird things are happening in Korea right now. If I was the DPRK, I would shoot my shot right now, both figuratively and literally. The United States is not only extremely distracted and divided, it has a deranged bonkers Mad King as its ruler. If it wants to prove a point — any point — now is the time to do it.

Trump AND Pence Get COVID19
I don’t want this, but if tonight’s MAGA Nuremberg really turns out to be a strategic superspreader event, there’s a good chance both the president and vice president may be temporarily incapacitated. Nancy Pelosi would become acting president and for a few weeks and things would get VERY VERY SURREAL.

Trump Loses It
There’s a chance that Trump really will lose it and all kinds of crazy shit might happen. His criminality and his insanity might fuse and he’ll start to personally attack Electors.

Why Does Everything Have To Be So Dumb? #TrumpTulsaRally

by Shelt Garner

You could not think up a worst beginning for a catastrophe. A bunch of people screaming in an enclose space for two hours, screaming at the president during a pandemic. What’s more, all of this is taking place in one of the worst-hit states in the Union.

It’s all very, very, VERY DUMB.

And, yet, here we are.

Really, all you have to do is have Trump finally snap mentally in the next few days and you pretty much have the absolute worst case scenario. But that last bit is probably going to be saved for the middle of his second term when The Kooch (or whomever) is his Veep. Someone young, organized and capable of shepherding Enabling Acts through a Constitutional Convention.

Trump is just a deranged moron who is extremely lucky.

It will, however, be interesting to see if we reach any sort of acute crisis in the coming days that throws everything out of whack as we head towards Election Day. I do know, however, that Trump is going to steal the election. Autocrats never lose, not even a very dumb one like Trump.

America As Autocracy

by Shelt Garner

Ultimately, all Trump has to do is get into his second term. It doesn’t really matter what happens after that. I believe Trump is going to either pick Ivanka as his second term veep (allowing her to pick say, Tom Cotton as VEEP for her eight year term so he can run for another eight years) or someone so insane that once he finally loses his mind we’ll really have something to cry about.

But the damage has been done, no matter what.

America is now a Russian-style “managed democracy” because of some serious macro problems that we were blind-sided by over the last three or so years. The last step is a Constitutional Convention that would rewrite the Constitution such that we’re a white-ethno state de jure, not just de facto.

The ICE Camps will be weaponized and that will be that.

Even if Biden wins and is actually sworn in, it’s just part of a broader death rattle. I’m reading a book called The Fourth Turning and pretty much exactly what it predicted 20 years ago is happening.

All I can say is, once the Browning of America and the Gray of America cross in about 20 years, we’re in for some very, very interesting times. AOC is likely to become president via a popular uprising.

This Weekend *Might* Be The Most Significant In The Trump Era

by Shelt Garner

So, the conditions are there for this weekend being the single most significant weekend in the Trump Era. I say this because of the following:

  1. The Tulsa Rally
    Trump is having an extremely ill-advised (and, as such very on-brand) MAGA Nuremberg Rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, which is major COVID19 hotspot right now. Since no one is going to wear a mask, he’s putting not only his own life — and I think Pence! — in danger, but the lives of the 19,000 attendees in danger. We won’t know for about two weeks if this what I fear — a COVID19 strategic superspreader event.
  2. The Berman Crisis
    Meanwhile, Trump — through Attorney General Barr — is TRYING to fire a prosecutor connected to the SDNY. Right now, it’s not working. That would be some split screen to have Trump ranting at his Tulsa MAGA Rally on one side and a Saturday Night Massacre type situation on the other.

The thing about this type situation is you just never know. You never know until after the fact that it was obvious that SOMETHING BIG was going to happen. I honestly have no idea what is going to happen this weekend.

Could be nothing.

Fucking QAnon Has Taken Over The Entirety Of The Republican Party

by Shelt Garner

I have one contact in the Republican Party who is usually pretty normal. He’s very conservative, but also very charismatic and generally a great guy. So when he told me the following via Facebook Messenger about what’s going to happen in the fall, I was shocked.

HIM: Electoral College scoreboard will be a 2016 repeat with a slightly larger margin for Trump. However, he will be killed soon by establishment agents.

ME: What are you talking about “killed.”

HIM: Assassinated.It will be poison or bio agent.

So, this leads me to believe that even the base of the Republican Party knows something’s wrong with Trump and they know that there’s a good chance he won’t finish his ill-gotten second term.

Still think Ivanka or some insane person is going to be Trump’s second term Veep, though. Someone far worse than Trump has ever been because they will be young, focused and actually know what they’re doing.

WW3: Trump as ‘War President’ or ‘A Fish Rots From Its Head’

by Shelt Garner

I have long thought Trump wants a war or major terrorist attack. That’s the only way I can explain his callus disregard for our national security. Well, he may very well have his chance to be a “War President” after all if the worst happens in Asia.

I don’t really expect any of this to happen. North Korea just wants some attention as it occasionally does. What’s going on between India and China right now is far more rare, but to date, it’s still kind of a so-what situation. But let’s suppose the worst happens and there are several regional wars that occur at the same time that are marketed as “World War Three.”

What happens?

Well, initially, Trump’s popularity will skyrocket.

Then everyone will realize, again, what a moron Trump is and it will go back down to where it is now. A conventional war between the United States and the DPRK would be a short, bloody affair. It would probably be about three months long.

That’s the best case scenario. If it went nuclear, then, well, goodbye LA, NYC and DC. The DPRK, meanwhile, would be nothing more than radioactive sludge.

But, again, I just don’t see that happening. Everything is going to calm down and things will go back to “normal.” Trump’s still never leaving office for any reason, though.