Perfect Storm: No Deal Brexit & The Ides Of Mueller (Redux)

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

We may — maybe — be careening towards a perfect storm. It’s possible that within days of each other, The Mueller Report will drop in the States and No Deal Brexit will occur in the UK.

This would have us on track (should we actually ever learn what’s in The Mueller Report) for one of the most eventful Aprils in our nation’s history in the sense that no only will there be growing calls for impeachment of POTUS, but the global economy will come to a screeching halt.

But there’s a lot we don’t know at this point.

Trump could lock away The Mueller Report with his taxes.
No Deal Brexit might not happen or might be significantly delayed.

We just don’t know.

There is, however, a greater than zero-sum chance that Trump will, in April, face an unprecedented political existential threat to his administration. There’s also the chance, of course, that America is so divided that not even if Trump’s electorate base melts down to anti-vaxxers and flat earthers will he be removed from office.

Because of demographic, economic and social trends, it may be that Trump will simply be the beginning of a political dynasty that lasts until either the country finally tears itself asunder or the youngest of the Baby Boomers finally begin to die off just as the browning of America begins to have real political impact.

We just don’t know.

A Deep Dive Into MAGA’s Origins & Trump’s Potential Ultimate Political Fate

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Trump is an avatar for some extraordinary systemic issues in the American political system. In other words, someone like Trump was going to pop up at this point in American history demographic and economic issues. All that was up in the air was the exact nature of it all.

So, the case could be made that Trump’s rise has more to do with the conditions that existed in 2008 than whatever specifically may have existed in 2016. Though, of course, there were at least two — two! — criminal active criminal conspiracies that helped push Trump across the victory line in 2016.

But even if Trump had lost, things were going to suck.

And had Trump not won, the only difference between what we have no and supposed counter-factual is the Republican who won would probably have not been, well, insane and a norm breaker like Trump. But the sudden, abrupt shift to the insane conservatism of the modern Republican party was bound to happen for no other reason than, well, Obama turned them all into insane racists hell bent on overturning his legacy.

White people can suck so bad sometimes. (I say this and I’m white.)

I say all of the above because all the people who seem to think The Mueller Report is going to magically bring Obama back from his extended trip to grab a pack of smokes at the corner store are deluding themselves. MAGA is a long-term, chronic issue that will always be on the cusp of going septic until, well, it does.

Maybe not a civil war, but a situation whereby the one thing America has had for about 200 years — even through a civil war! — will be lost: regular elections and civilian control of the military.

If you have to debate with a MAGA person if the United States is a democracy or a republic, well, you have your answer right there. There’s going to come a point when the United States is run by a military junta for no reason than both sides will grow so polarized that the the entire system freezes up and because the American military won’t follow an illegal order, either they step in to cool down the situation or there’s enough unrest that we might have a situation like Reconstruction where some states are run as military districts (probably the Blue States the way things are going.)

It’s so difficult to address why we’re going to have to wait until the 2021-2023 era to “get” Trump politically because there’s so much going on on a macro level. The point is, Trump is going to win re-election in 2020 and either he starts to tout someone as his “successor” who will protect his “legacy” in 2024….or we do, in fact, finally “get him.”

By “get him” I mean he’s removed from office because the preponderance of evidence against him is so staggering — and the time before he leaves off is long enough — that even though he will say he’s been “vindicated” there’s a real chance that the economy will finally tank and then he’ll be down to about 20% of the electorate who will continue to support him.

And, yet, I have to address the most fucked up scenario again.

That scenario, which I just don’t see happening, but still, is this: The Mueller Report finally comes out and somehow, someway we learn (after a few months of court battles) that “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy” and impeachment hearings began in the middle of an extended 2020 campaign.

It would be the most completely fucked up political event in modern American political history because the cold hard facts of how we’re now two America’s will be laid bare.

One one hand, Trump’s many, many, many crimes will be investigated in the House and just about 50% of the electorate will think he should be convicted in the Senate.

Meanwhile, the other 50% of the electorate will be busy RE-NOMINATING Trump for 2020.

Talk about a crazy split screen.

While highly unlikely — I think Trump will easily win re-election for various reasons, there is a non-zero chance it could happen. Probably the exact timing of No Deal Brexit will play a large part in all.

But what do I know.

Cohen Raid Memo Unease #FOTUS

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I can’t sleep for some reason and so I have nothing else to do but think about what might be in the redacted Cohen raid document that court is supposed to release at some point Tuesday during business hours.

Probably nothing of note is going to happen, but there are some very gossamer datapoints that at least make feel a tingle of unease.

— I’m getting strange traffic in my Website’s Webstats when it comes to FOTUS. Like, at least one “usual suspect” has been looking at the site again after a long absence. He’s just the type of guy who would “know something” in advance, too. But what? Also, the occasional hits from CA and DC have popped up. These are just the types of sites you might expect someone “in the know” to come from if something REALLY BIG was about to drop connected to FOTUS.

— POTUS has been going batshit insane the last few days. Everyone’s been thinking it had to do with the Mueller Report maybe coming out, but what if it was — and I’m really pulling it out of my ass at this point — something FOTUS related?

Now, from my point of view it wouldn’t be so much that magically the Cohen raid document would somehow “prove” that FOTUS is real — ’cause it ain’t.

But there’s a real chance that even in redacted form, the document might allude to the suspicion on the part of the FBI that FOTUS did, in fact, happen and as such that would draw attention to the theory and by extension what I’ve written about this now very very very debunked idea.

And, it’s not like I’m going to endup on Maddow talking about this. If would be the dude from New York Magazine who first proposed FOTUS (though he to date has not called it this) who would be interviewed.

Should this scenario play out, however, there’s a little a minor chance that for a few hours tomorrow (Tuesday) my Twitter mentions might blow up as I have to explain over and over again why FOTUS is bullshit.

I keep saying it’s bullshit because, well, it is.

It’s been prove in court to be bullshit, Broidy’s property was raided and if FOTUS was real, wouldn’t it have somehow leaked out in conjunction with the Cohen imbriglio in the first place?

FOTUS just didn’t happen, but it’s possible that the Cohen raid memo might allude to FOTUS in some way and that, in itself, would be the thing that got people talking for a few days and be politically damaging to the president. Add to this The Mueller Report coming out soon (maybe?) AND No Deal Brexit on the horizon and….well…whoah boy.

I find the whole situation with Shera Bechard’s abortion tragic, regardless of who the father was and I wish it would get more attention. We need a proper airing out of her state of mind at the time that occured. The hypocrisy on that front is a little too much for me.

The Mueller Report’s Absolute Worst Case Scenario

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

When the House flipped, I thought we had until August 2019 to “get” Trump. Guess what! I was wrong!

The very thing I thought wouldn’t happen until August of this year, people saying “let the people decide in 2020” has already begun. It’s happening now. So, there’s no window of opportunity to “get” Trump politically. We’re stuck with him until at some point in the 2021 – 2023 period for no other reason than The Resistance is so hopelessly divided between the extreme Left that wants everyone to free bleed or be transgendered (Wink! Just kidding!) and the Centrists who just want Obama to come back from grabbing a pack of cigs at the corner store.

Hyperbole aside, right now Trump’s re-election prospects stand at 100% in my mind.

Unless.

Here’s where things get really, really messy.

I see Trump politically as a chronic illness that if not properly treated can go septic at any moment. In practical terms, that means Trump is perpetually both doing fine and about to be removed from office at the same time. This can go on for a very, very long time.

But the absolute worst case scenario is this — The Mueller Report is as big as we all hope / fear and it all happens not in the context of a Congressional mid-term, but a presidential election. The absolute worst case scenario for everyone involved is Trump realizes he faces the prospect of jail time if he loses in 2020 or is otherwise removed from office. You can babble about state crimes all you want, but apparently New York State still has an anti-double jeopardy law on the books, and, as such, Trump will likely be able to weasel his way out of it if the Federal statute of limitations expires.

Now, from Trump’s point of view, a series of things would have to go wrong for the absolute, total worst case scenario to happen. For me, that would be Trump facing a material existential threat to his administration using a metric that Blue Check Liberals would see as valid.

So, to get to that point, first, The Mueller Report has to be REALLY BAD. But even that isn’t really that bad for him. Even if “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy,” if we don’t see it because Attorney General Bill Barr pulls some stupid justification out of his ass, then Trump is safe. I say this because if the most damning aspects of Mueller’s report are held up in the courts until after election day 2020, then we will have lost the battle, but been set up for winning the war against the American Nazis that are MAGA.

But, let’s suppose things continue to get worse for Trump.

So, let’s say Bill Barr decides he has some sense of honor (and wants to do his good friend Bob Mueller & or the America people a solid) and he releases the “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy” part of the report to Congress. This promptly is leaked to the American press and it goes off like a H-Bomb across political Washington.

Now, I’m pretty sure all we’d get is simply silence from the Right Wing Echo Chamber for about 24 hours until they got their talking points. There will never, ever, ever be a point when MAGA does the Pence Pivot until it’s politically expedient using white knuckled political calculations.

Things would have to continue to get worse for Trump if the “obstruction is collusion / conspiracy” move for impeachment / conviction were to continue to move forward at this point as the 2020 campaign really began to pick up steam.

Remember, at every single moment, Republican MAGA will object to doing anything because they’ll say, “let the people decide in 2020.” And once Trump is re-elected, they’ll crow that Trump’s been vindicated and why don’t you just shut up about it all and enjoy the humming economy. (If Trump loses in 2020 — which he won’t — I don’t know what they’d do. Probably start a civil war.)

So for there to be serious talk of Trump being not only impeached in the House but convicted in the Senate, Mueller would have to lay out in a material way that not only did Trump and the Russians give each other a handjob, but that they took it to the next level and at the direction of the Russians, Trump fired the head of the FBI!

I just don’t see that happening.

I could see on a political level it being seriously suspected, but if Mueller actually could prove anything, ANYTHING CLOSE to that, Trump’s goose it fucking cooked.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that’s literally the only way that it’s actually possible that we might see Trump in front of the Senate for trial late enough in the 2020 campaign that some seriously fucking surreal things would happen.

I mean, imagine if Mueller had Trump dead to rights for the Russians directing him to fire Comey and yet Trump’s base of about 37% (80% of the Republican electorate) simply didn’t care and re-nominated him. Imagine the CNN split screen of Trump giving his re-nomination speech as very annoyed Republican Senators contemplated his removal from office for effective treason.

And it gets worse. Much, much worse.

In this absolute worst case scenario, Trump is convicted in the Senate.

And he refuses to leave the Oval Office.

Just won’t leave. He spends all day, for weeks, hold up in the White House with the FBI struggling to figure out what to do as he tweets and tweets and tweets extremely passive-aggressive shit about how everyone wants him to kill himself or how he could kill himself because of those “radical Democrats.” (I said this was worst case scenario, folks.)

How this would all end, I don’t know.

I think it would be with a 9/11 level amount of national heartbreak when the FBI, sensing that the MAGA shitheads are going to do something crazy like try to form a human shield around the White House will have to go in and physically remove Trump from office.

It’s not going to be pretty and I hope, for Christ’s sake, it doesn’t happen.

I just want Trump politically destroyed. On a human level, I hope he lives long enough to have his mind uploaded into a database so he can live for fucking forever.

Anyway, reality is much more likely to be a lot more soft, take a lot longer and be a lot more inconclusive than my dire worst-case scenario.

The Biggest Constitutional Crisis In 50 Years — The Potential Catch-22 Of The Mueller Report

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

A Constitutional Crisis usually happens not because the system doesn’t work, but because human nature runs up against at cross purposes in a quirky way that one could never foresee.

As such, given my back-of-the-envelope knowledge of the Special Council guidelines, it seems there’s a quirk that might cause the entire American Constitutional system to freeze up until someone blinks.

The potential Constitutional Crisis goes something like this: Attorney General Bill Barr being a Trump loyalist takes one look at what is laid out in the Mueller Report and sends over a few pages summing up that while some seriously shady shit happened between the Russians and the Trump Campaign, because it did not reach the level of statute for “conspiracy,” no collusion happened (even though the two things are not the same.)

Now, the crisis kicks in when one of two things happen — Barr words what he sends to Congress in some a way that it’s obvious that he’d hiding some seriously big news against the Trump Administration or it leaks out that while Trump, Don Jr. or Jared weren’t actually indicted by Mueller, a propendency of evidence points to Trump himself needing to be indicted….

…but he can’t be indicted because of DOJ guidelines…

So we would have a massive clusterfuck on our hands as Trump hunkers down to not release this information (even though he’s been babbling about the need for “transparency” for months now ) because for the ostensible reason of not “casting aspersions against the assumed innocent” (him). But because in that case only Congress could weigh the political necessity of impeachment first in the House and later in the Senate (hopefully) if they don’t get that information, they can’t very well do the job of impeachment properly.

This tug of war could go on for some time, bouncing back and forth in the Courts long enough for Trump to sail to reelection and they we actually get into the business of getting rid of Trump at some point between 2021 and 2023. The absolute worse case scenario being, of course, that Trump does Nixon one better and simply ignores SCOTUS should they somehow have a shred of decency left and vote against him when it comes to releasing as much of The Mueller Report as possible. (Given that this would likely happen in the middle of a Trump’s re-election campaign…I think he probably would ignore SCOTUS until after he’s been re-elected.)

And, yet, if you’re a Trump supporter — or one of his dipship lackies — I wouldn’t whip out your cock and start stroking it for joy quite yet. Remember, the reason why The Mueller Report is actually so important is because it will kind of mark a significant moment in the Trump Era because the now Democratically controlled House will have to weigh the political moment to see if it’s worth finally beginning the process of impeachment.

This is going to happen no matter what we learn — or don’t learn — about Trump via The Mueller Report, even if all the most damning aspects of it never see the light of day. Once the House realises they can’t use The Mueller Report as political cover, they’re going to keep investigating Trump anyway and while it might take some time, Trump’s going to have to account for his political sins at some point in the future by, say, 2023.

Or put it another way — Trump’s second term is going to fucking suck.

It’s a historical truth that typically presidential second terms are much, much worst than the first and Trump’s is unlikely to be any different. In fact, in a way, Trump’s second term, in itself, is an existential threat to Trump’s political future.

What I mean is, I give up on getting rid of Trump between 2019 and early 2021. We’re stuck with him, no matter what.

But once his second term starts, the clock resets. We have a solid three years before the talk of “letting the people decide Trump’s legacy” begins in about 2023. As such, if the House stays Democratic, which it should, Trump’s totally fucked.

He. Is. Fucked.

If he’s not driven out of office, he’ll be impeached and come extremely close to being convicted in the Senate. In fact, he might actually even be convicted in the Senate. Yes, if you’re MAGA, you’ll have had a solid six or so years of destroying America, inciting needless violence and racial discord. You’ll have had the opportunity to ram young, conservative hacks into the Judiciary. You will have gotten your tax cuts. You will have had the opportunity to destroy the environment and either destroy or dramatically change the nature of the “administrative state.”

But let one thing be clear — the political depth charge that will be Trump’s final demise at some point between 2021 and 2023 is likely to be so dramatic, so surreal and so damaging to the long-term MAGA agenda, that you fucktards might at least pause between counting your tax cuts long enough to reflect on how maybe, just maybe Trump might have been something we could have avoided if we’d be a little less craven.

So, people like me just have to hunker down for just over 2 years.

Once we lose the 2020 election and Trump runs around naked on the National Mall proclaiming his “vindication” and pardons every MAGA person in America of every crime they’ve ever thought about committing, just know that the clock, at last, is finally ticking.

That #FOTUS Was Completely Debunked Will Be Looked Back Upon As One Of The Biggest Shocks Of The Trump Era

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

If today’s Elliot Broidy news says anything, it’s that it’s now rather comical in hindsight that anyone thought Broidy wasn’t Shera Bechard’s babydaddy. I have say — again — how sorry I am about my involvement in all that, but at the time it definitely seemed to make sense.

It all hinges on the cold hard fact that Shera Bechard really was just casually referred Keith Davidson to be her lawyer. The rest, as they say, took care of itself. Once Davidson got involved, then the fact that Broidy would picked sketchy Michael Cohen to be his lawyer in the Bechard imbriglio (what would have been FOTUS if Trump was the babydaddy) took care of itself.

So, as such, today’s news that Broidy was raided absolutely, 100% puts the whole thing to bed. If there had been ANYTHING to the story, we would have learned with HIS place was raided, not now months later. While I’m sure there’s plenty of dirty business going on at the nexus of Trump – Broidy — Cohen, Trump being Shera Bechard’s babydaddy ain’t it.

The things that I — and a few others — thought suggested Trump was the father was bullshit. Broidy and Bechard really were that good at covering up their entire relationship and Bechard really did have zero, ZERO connection to Trump other than they partied in the same circles in the most tenuous of ways.

But I do think that looking back on all of this, we’ll see the FOTUS non-event as one of the strangest twists in the Trump experience. We came to know enough about Trump that we realized it was pretty logical to assume what we know now to be absolutely false — that Trump knocked up Bechard and then dangled access in front of Broidy so he’d take the fall. We were looking at it from the wrong direction because the Keith Davidson angle didn’t seem to make any sense. The issue of the “high” number of $1.6 million for an abortion also was completely misinterpreted by people who were looking into it. Or, at least me.

And, yet, it did.

Must note one thing, though — the Russians are interested in this story. I have no idea why, but they are. Occasionally someone from deep within Russia, usually Moscow, will poke around my FOTUS information. Also, I fear this particular story is never going to die relative to my Webstats. It comes in waves as people hear bits and pieces of this now bullshit story and look at what I wrote, trying to figure it out for themselves. So, as such, I’ll probably write about it a little bit more now and then as weird things pop up in my Webstats. I think some of the Webstat uptick in interest into FOTUS that I saw last year probably happened about the time Broidy’s place was raided. I have absolutely no proof of this, but it would be enough to make me snort if somehow when they raided his place the people who did it became aware of what I’d written.

Or, if you really wanted to be paranoid, you could say Broidy was thinking about suing me for some reason when they raided his place. Oh boy. I’m flat broke and I honestly don’t what the point of doing so would be. Make my life hell to make himself feel better? I don’t know. All I can say is, again, how very sorry I am about my excitement over this case of mistaken babydaddy.

I’m really sorry that I wasted everyone’s time. Don’t know what more I can say about it. You gain your wisdom and move on.

‘The Ides Of Mueller’ Would Be The Setup To Something Historically Messy In Scope

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Again, I don’t know anything about anything.

But if you want to waste time time with me, let’s reflect on what would happen if Friday (March 15th) was The Ides Of Mueller and The Mueller Report somehow not only dropped by was obviously an existential threat to the Trump Administration.

The thing that I’ve long thought is that if we got Trump by August 2019, we could put this all behind us and move on. But what I didn’t fact in was the the moment the polls closed for the 2018 Congressional mid-terms, the 2020 presidential campaign began.

As such, it is taking the American ship of state much longer to right its course. Furthermore, it’s possible that criminality associated with the Trump Administration is so massive that it won’t be sorted out until 2021. Thus, the drumbeat of impeachment will be just a lot of white noise in 2020 and people are really going to be more interested in the economy and paying off their mortgage.

And, yet, if The Mueller Report is the rhetorical and political equivalent of Caesar walking into the Senate in 55BC, the distance between what is politically possible and necessary may snap back into place in a pretty fast, pretty dramatic fashion. I say this because right now for some pretty white knuckled political reasons, both parties feel they have a vested interest in slow walking any talk of impeachment. They feel this, in large part, because of, you guessed it, the 2020 presidential campaign.

But what happens if The Mueller Report turns March 15, 2019 into The Ides of Mueller and the whole political equation of the moment is thrown out the window? I struggle to think of it would play out. It seems as though the House Democratic Leadership sees immediate impeachment ahead of the 2020 campaign as a fool’s errand.

I’m enough of a student of history, however, to know that occasionally the dead hand of history has other ideas. This, of course, is the worst case scenario. There are plenty of scenarios where what I expect will happen, happens — there’s a slow boil that finally begins to bubble at some point in Trump’s second administration.

If the issue of impeachment should happen to be become a crisis sooner rather than later, the most likely scenario is Trump is impeached in the House, acquitted in the Senate and he runs around saying he’s been “exonerated” of every illegal thing he’s ever done in his entire life.

But let’s play pretend.

Not know anything means there’s a chance that what I — and we — don’t know is far worst than we could ever imagine, so bad, in fact, that at some point in the next few months the “bipartisan” part of Speaker Pelosi’s demands for impeachment are met and away we go.

This is where things get crazy. Trump could literally stir up civil unrest on a massive scale. He could start to pardon everyone he needs to pardon. He hold up in the Oval Office and should be actually be impeached refuse to leave. And he might not leave unless Federal agents physically remove him.

But that’s the absolute worst-case scenario.

The absolute worse. Reality is likely to fall in some sort of murky, muddled in-between that takes far longer than any of us would like. That’s why I see Trump either being succeed in 2024 by someone like Tom Cotton or maybe, just maybe leaving power in some way around August 2022. Maybe if Ivanka is allowed to become VEEP?

Who knows. The macro problems that led to Trump aren’t going anywhere are likely bound to only get worse.

The Trump Era, ‘Trumplandia,’ Is Likely To Be A Completely Value-Free Historical Experience

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

There’s a real chance that one of two things will happen — either the entire nation, in a sense, turns into Trumplandia after Trump finally leaves office in 2025, or the whole thing is completely value free.

What I mean by this is, either just like the Reagan Revolution fundamentally changed modern America’s political landscape, so too will the Trump dystopia, or when Trumplandia is over, all his defenders will slink back under the rocks from whence they came.

At this point, either eventuality is about 50/50.

I guess the only difference between the two is if we get a center-Right successor to Trump or a center-Left one. And, really, it doesn’t matter. Trump is totally destroying America on a fundamental level and all I ask is I eventually make enough money to leave the country and never come back.

If a weaponized ICE doesn’t put me in a camp before I can escape, that is.

Weighing Seriously The Chances That Brexit Will Cause ‘Trumxit’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The only reason why I think Brexit may cause Trumxit is there’s a real chance the global economy is going to slow down significantly should No Deal Brexit happen.

One of the several unique aspects of Watergate that lead to Nixon leaving office, besides the tapes — and Nixon’s physical inability to burn them (he was in bed with a problem caused by the veins in his legs) — was the economy went south just about the time he left office.

I just don’t see anything forcing Trump out of office. The economy could crater and while he might get impeached in the House because of it, you could have a Second Great Depression and you won’t be able to get enough Republican Senators to vote for conviction.

So, really, since the United States is no longer a democracy, Trump is going to cruise into a second term no matter what, groom his young, passionate ideological successor and the only thing that might save us is two or three presidential cycles down the road some sort of fluke happens.

And, by that point, the youngest of the Baby Boomers will finally begin to drop dead just as the browning of America reaches a tipping point and maybe the American ship of state will actually right itself before blood runs in the streets.

God, I hope so.

This Is America — Mueller, MAGA and Trump As Elected Dictator

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Robert Mueller is a brilliant guy and as such he must know that there’s a good chance any report he sends to Attorney General Bill Barr may be extremely bowdlerize and otherwise hidden forever.

As such, it would make a lot of sense if soon — say Friday — he wrapped up his investigation by indicting a series of high profile, politically powerful people and then walking away. The report itself wouldn’t really matter that much because the crux of the report would be in who he indicted.

Now, let’s be honest — America is so politically divided right now for various reasons — and the economy is strong enough — that Trump is effectively above the law. And it’s likely he will be re-elected handily and we’ll be fighting over his “legacy” in 2024. So I wouldn’t get your hopes up that Trump is going anywhere.

In fact, let’s address that. A lot of Republicans say that all the investigations into Trump is simply warmed over sour grapes and we should simply leave Trump alone. “He won, he’s president, the economy is doing well, fuck off,” is essentially their line of reasoning.

There’s not a lot you can say about that. Though my response is that is only half the story. Trump has done a lot of impeachable things since he became president and as such if you can’t seen past your own partisanship, then there’s not much point debating anything, now is there.

With that in mind, I fear all we can hope for is FOX News simply being quiet for about 24 hours while they process whatever big name indictments Mueller may hand down. That’s it. Then after that 24 hours, they’ll take their cue from Trump’s twitter feed and after about a week of people being angry on Twitter the whole thing will fade and Trump will divide-and-conquer his way to a 2020 re-election.

But I like to play pretend, so let’s step away from the what will actually happen and talk about what won’t happen — Trump actually faces a real existential threat to his presidency.

This is where things get difficult to predict because we just don’t know how far Trump would be willing to go to defend himself. If he simply plays the greatest hits, then he’ll be impeached in the House and acquitted in the Senate. He’ll then turn around and say he’s been vindicated and there will be absolutely nothing anyone can do about it.

But let’s walk even farther away from what will really happen. Three things might change things in unexpected ways. One, if Mueller indicts some really big names, there’s a chance Trump will completely lose it and overplay his hand to such an extent that his support begins to wane a little bit. While the flipping out bit is possible, I just don’t see anything getting him below 37% of the electorate. The scary thing is, even if he does over play his hand with 60% of the electorate, there would be people who got off on that and people would start to die in the streets — or shit might get blown up — MAGA finally gets radicalized to such an extent that it has real bloodlust.

Meanwhile, there’s No Deal Brexit that likely to happen in a few weeks. If the impeachment process has finally begun to pick up steam in the States and suddenly the global economy comes to a grinding halt because of No Deal Brexit, that might push Trump’s support down to anti-Vaxxers, mouth breathing gunnuts and flat-earthers. But, like I said, even then if MAGA has gotten radicalized enough, the violence they inflict might be enough that there is never the political willpower to get rid of Trump, even if his actual poll numbers are in the 20% range.

The last thing I might speculate could pose an existential threat to Trump’s administration is there might come a point either sometime next year or sometime in Trump’s second term, when things get so absolutely bad in real terms that the Republicans do some white knuckled political calculus in their soulless minds and do the PencePiviot.

In other words, they wouldn’t even blink and eye in their move to Pence, saying, “Shut up, libtard, I really voted for Pence in the first place.” But that’s only at about maybe 10% probability. The sequence of events that would lead the Senate to convict Trump should he ever be impeached in the House is so unlikely as to be nearly impossible. Trump’s not going anywhere and there will be a lot of talk in 2023 that MAGA should push for either Trump to ignore the Constitution and run for a 3rd term, or he should push for a change of the Constitution so he can run. The only thing that might reduce that momentum is Trump picked some young, passionate — and competent! — ideological MAGA firebrand as his chosen successor. So, in that sense, we would look back at Trump as simply the bridge between the democratic America of the past and the “managed democracy” of the present and future.

Lastly, let’s play pretend even more. There’s only about a 1% chance Trump will not be a two term president in my opinion. I say this because Trump is an avatar for some pretty massive structural problems in American political life. But let’s say for the sake of argument that the asteroid strikes Planet Trump, then what? I would expect Trump to tweet all day in an extremely passive-agressive manner, to rally MAGA to the White House to physically protect him and for there to be an actual armed, deadly battle on the White House lawn as we figure out how to get Trump physically out of the Oval Office. It would be the most tramatic event in American history since 9/11.

Like I keep saying, however, Trump’s not going anywhere. He’s an elected dictator and things are probably only going to get worse, not better. I have no hope. We’re in a dystopia. This isn’t really a matter of hope as it is simply an observation — no one can predict the future and the deadhand of history always has a few tricks up her sleeve.

America 1776-2019.

RIP.