V-Log: 2019 Is Going To Be Lit

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Just some idle rambling about Trump’s fate going into 2019.

The Trump Endgame

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As of late 2018, here’s what I think the Trump endgame is going to be — Trump will ultimately fall back on the Nixon legal theory that “the president can’t obstruct justice” and that, as they say, will be that. He’ll also move the goal posts when it comes to Russian collusion / conspiracy to such an extent that that, too, will be mooted.

While all of this is going on, Trump will feel MAGA a daily dose of conflation, confusion, muddling the waters and general demagogic mindfucking. Ultimately, things will be so warped that by 2024, Trump will be as unpopular as ever, but he’ll use his Hitler-like charm with the volk to pick some young, ideological asshole across the finish line and it’ll be THAT guy who does the REAL damage for any number of reasons.

Having said all that, let’s look at the idea that Trump would go full Nixon. One thing, just from casual, passive observation of FOX News I see through my Twitter feed, is that the idea that Trump would do the most Trumpian thing ever and appoint his own special prosecutor to look into UraniumOne seems, at this point, almost a foregone conclusion. I could see Trump appointing such a special prosecutor and offering the Democratic House the following deal: I get to fire Mueller in exchange for getting rid of my insane UraniumOne prosecutor. I see that as something that might happen between now and January 1st. It would be just like Trump to do something that insane while everyone was relaxing on, say, Christmas.

So, if Trump goes full Nixon, he probably will survive. What Trump lacks that Nixon had is honor, so I could totally see Trump appointing his own special prosecutor, and saying that as president he can’t commit obstruction of justice. Any order on the part of SCOTUS for him to testify he ignores and wallow in a staggering Constitutional Crisis for the next six or so years. Trump really doesn’t give a shit about anyone but himself and the idea of tearing the country apart in such a manner wouldn’t phase him one bit.

Something really, really bad would have to happen politically — or economically — for Trump to come anywhere near being forced out of office any time soon. I’m not even sure the Democrats have the guts to impeach Trump right now. So, in the end, we might have Trump dead to rights to any number of pretty staggering political crimes and…nothing happens.

Thus, in a way, Trump would be a lot like Reagan after Iran-contra. He’d just kind of drift through office, being a dick and after he’s out of office, the center of gravity in the Republican Party shifts to the right in a mindboggling way and 20 years from now Republicans will talk about Trump the way they used to talk about Reagan.

The 3 Things That May Force Trump Out Of Office In 2019

At this point, my expectations are so low when it comes to Trump ever actually being forced out of office for any reason other than the fact that he can’t run for a third term that this is just me idly daydreaming. — Shelton Bumgarner

No Deal Brexit
If I was a betting man, No Deal Brexit is probably the one I would lay money down on. I say this because really, 20% to 30% of Trump’s popularity comes from the strong American economy. If No Deal Brexit happens and is as bad as we all fear, the global economy could come to a screeching halt and with it Donald Trump’s presidency. Not only would “rich MAGA” leave Trump, but a lot of ignorant poor MAGA would too. They would do the “Pence Pivot” on a dime and we’d all be arguing over how much Pence hates gay people, not Trump’s many, many, many crimes. Of all the ways Trump leaves office, this is by far the most likely. I say this because No Deal Brexit seems like it might actually happen.

Proof Of Trump Being A Russian Agent
This one is pretty much just a liberal fever dream. While it’s pretty much self-evident at this point that Putin and Trump have a lot more than a simple bromance going on, how we would actually get _proof_ that Trump is a Russian agent is beyond me. But it would have to be nearly the Constitutional definition of treason for this to happen. Anything less and Trump and his cronies could spin it in any number of different ways and we’d just muddle through like we always do.

A Huge Jeffery Epstein Revelation
Again, this one would poses a real risk to Trump, but it’s extremely unlikely. While the Epstein affair is sordid and horrible and a travesty of justice….I just don’t see what I want to have happen — Trump’s close relationship to Epstein be shown to be much more proactive than we understand it be now — simply isn’t going to happen. Trump was close to the guy, but as of right now it doesn’t appear that he was THAT close to him.

So, I honestly don’t see anything happening to Trump. He’s a mad, tyrannical king for the time being.

The Odd Case of Jeffrey Epstein, #MeToo & Donald J. Trump

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m no expert on this situation. In fact, in real terms, I barely know what’s going on. But I do know that there is credible evidence linking skeezy billionaire Jeffrey Epstein and Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States. Trump has, in the past, called Epstein something like his “best friend.” And there’s enough evidence floating out there publicly to indicate that Trump is, in fact, some way connected to Epstein and his sinister flying pleasure mobile.

I only bring this up beyond the obvious icky nature of it all because the only thing that brought down Italy’s Trump, Silvio Berlusconi, is, well, an underage prostitution ring. So, in a sense, I guess what I’m saying is we should seriously look into Trump’s involvement in the Epstein affair, no matter where it takes us.

Bill Clinton was also a member of the murky sinister world that Epstein was involved in and if he happens to get wrapped up in whatever criminal proceedings occur while we go after Trump, so be it. I honestly don’t fucking care. As I’ve said for 3 years now, Trump’s an existential threat to the American Republic and we have to figure out a way to bring that fucker down politically.

It’s just odd that this story hasn’t gotten more publicity. The Epstein case is like the motherload of all potential targets for the #MeToo movement. And, yet, it continues to be hidden in the shadows and the fact that Trump is / was really tight with Epstein — or at least was about the time he was committing his heinous crimes should be enough for us to take a second or third look at what, exactly, happened.

Will anything come of this? Probably not. The men involved are simply too powerful and they’ve already shown that they can bend justice to their will, so I don’t honestly see anything different happening going forward.

It’s a tragedy, however.

Putin’s Ukraine Strategy Is A Blackbox, & Yet A Trump-Influenced Endgame May Exist

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m not an expert on any of this, but I’m pretty good at strategic thinking. I have the Ukraine — Russia situation on the brain, so here I am writing yet again about it despite my lack of anything to base my opinion on beyond the chatter of my Twitter feed. But having said all that, let’s take a hard look at where things stand.

Putin’s Ukraine strategy is a blackbox for a number of reasons, chief amongst them being, we really don’t know what his endgame would be should he decide on a general war against Ukraine. He knows on a basic level that he simply doesn’t have the resources to take and keep a big chunk of Ukraine long-term. So, really, unless there’s something going on we don’t know about, he’s probably just going to continue to fake us out on the topic. He’s probably going to continue to screw with the Ukraine government’s mind with no intention of actually doing anything big.

And, yet, there’s one specific datapoint that sticks out: Donald J. Trump.

If Putin had any dream of actually gobbling up a big chunk of Ukraine, he must know that it’s pretty much now or never. It’s like Trump is going to do anything if Putin attacks Ukraine in a big way and, what’s more, Putin could actually help Trump in a big way should he attack Ukraine. Think about it, first and foremost, the first month of any such war would suck out all the air of any other news story and it would be the perfect cover for Trump to fire Bob Mueller and pardon everyone he needs to pardon. Meanwhile, Trump simply doesn’t address what’s going on in Ukraine and NATO is left to send support to the now rump state of Ukraine.

But that still doesn’t give us any sense of the endgame. That just gives us the beginning of the story. But what would be the end? What would be the point, from Putin’s point of views in starting a general war with Ukraine. I honestly don’t know. So, maybe he doesn’t start a general war, but simply attacks Kiev, overthrows the government and backs off? He had his chance to do that a few years ago…and he didn’t.

So, I don’t know. Honestly, the only datapoint that points to any conflict at this point is Trump. Trump being a Russian toady might be the historical fact that leads to a war, even though I struggle to figure out what the endgame would be.

The Conditions Exist For A General War Between Russia And Ukraine

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now, let me be clear — the conditions for a general war between Russia and Ukraine have existed for years. It’s just that in the last few days things have grown significantly worse, so much so that pretty much it’s just up to Putin at this point if anything happens. Let me explain.

1. Putin is corning Ukraine
It appears as though Putin is putting the squeeze on the Ukrainians in such a way that they might feel the only course of action they have is to attack the Russians in a big way, which would, of course, give Russia the cover it needs to start a general war with Ukraine. By “general war,” I mean one in which the endgame is to take Kiev and establish a rump state in the portion of Ukraine that could stretch from Odessa in the west all the way around Crimea then all the way around some more to Kiev.

2. Trump is historically weak
Trump is a historically weak president on a number of fronts, most especially Russia. Does anyone really expect Trump to do anything, anything at all if Putin starts a major war against Ukraine? There will be a major reaction by the Pols and the rest of NATO when it comes to sending arms and advisers to what’s left of Free Ukraine, but the United States under Trump is unlikely to say anything at all.

3. Trump’s in trouble.
It seems pretty clear to me that given the two things stated above, that Putin might try to help Trump by starting a major war against Ukraine, one big enough that it would distract people in the States to such an extent that Trump would feel comfortable firing Bob Mueller, pardoning half a dozen people and then hunker down for the House to officially flip in January.

Now, there are some major reasons why Putin wouldn’t do anything at all.

The biggest reason off the top of my head is while Putin’s forces could take Kiev in “two weeks,” it’s highly unlikely that they could keep it long term. It’s very possible that Putin has long ago done the geopolitical calculation in his head and he just doesn’t see a general war against Ukraine as worth it, ever. Even with a historically friendly Trump Administration in office, it just doesn’t make any sense for Putin to risk the existential threat associated with a war with Ukraine that he knows long-term could very well cause his downfall.

So, there’s a better than even chance that this is all nothing. This is just the usual geopolitical scuffling that goes on between the Ukrainians and the Russians and it’s all a big false alarm. We’re likely to know one way or another in a few days.

The Existential Threat Of Trump’s Silence On Ukraine — Russia, Or, ‘The Birth Of Novorossiya?’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m merely an armchair observer on all of this, so if you want any scholarly insight into what’s going on, please look elsewhere. But having said that, it seems as though the conditions are there, at least, for a Russia to make a major land grab in Ukraine. I say this because Trump has been completely silent on what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine.

It definitely seems to me, at least, that Putin could see that silence as tacit acknowledgement from Trump that Putin can do whatever he likes in Ukraine without any threat of the United States doing anything. Hence, it definitely seems the ball is in Putin’s court. Putin could start a general war in a wide swath of Ukraine stretching for Odessa in the west to the border between Ukraine and Russia in the east and do some serious damage to the existing order in Europe.

Putin, as I recall, has repeatedly bragged that his military could take Kiev in two weeks, should the mood strike him. Of course, the reason why he hasn’t attempted that is he knows that while he could take Kiev, he probably wouldn’t be able to keep it. It would be Afghanistan all over again, only on a much larger scale and with much higher stakes. Putin knows Soviet involvement in Afghanistan contributed to that empire’s downfall and he’s smart enough not to repeat the mistake.

Hence, that’s why Putin’s been very, very cautious in what he’s done with Ukraine. He’s used “little green men” to do is bidding and what makes the recent navel scuffle in the Black Sea so out of character is how brazen it is. Under any normal American administration, the president would make a strong speech condemning the action and that would be enough for Russia and they would back off.

But, oddly enough, Trump has been completely silent on what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine and, as I mentioned, that might be enough for Putin to push things a little bit farther than he might otherwise. And, yet, Russia remains a weak regional power outside of its many, many nuclear weapons and as such its economy probably couldn’t handle a general war between Ukraine and itself. Putin is wily enough that he probably is content — hopefully — with the point he’s made and now he’ll just wait for his buttboy Trump to be his lap down at the G20 meeting.

That seems to be what is going to happen. But given how weak Trump is in regards to Russia, on a geopolitical level, Putin might see the Trump Administration as a historic opportunity to get as much as he can from Ukraine while he can. Or not. Who knows. Putin works in murky blackbox ways and anything is possible.

We’ll see.

The convention wisdom was, at least at one point in the last few years, that should the Russians start a general war with Ukraine that the first phase of the war would see a quick victory on the part of the Russians once they took Kiev. They would then hunker down on a huge chunk of Ukraine and attempt to organize the puppet state of Novorossiya. Then the rump state of Ukraine would organize a counter attack with a flood of arms from Poland and other interested states. But all of that worked on the assumption that the United States would take a lead role in all of this.

It’s very possible in today’s weird political climate that the Russians might — just might — feel they could risk a general war with Ukraine because the United States is pretty much a Vichy state at this point. But, again, I just don’t know. I honestly have no idea what is going to happen.

I think nothing is going to happen. Putin’s made his point and he’s just going to wait until just the right moment to come out of his spider hole to do a little mischief. But that could be years in the future.

Shelton Bumgarner is a writer and photographer living in Richmond, Va. He is currently working on his first novel. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com.

Armchair Observations About The State Of Play Between Ukraine, Russia…And Trump?

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I am no expert on relations between Ukraine and Russia, but I do have an interest in it and a little bit of time on my hands, so here we are. Take it for what it is. Just me rambling in general terms about what’s going on.

The key thing, for me, is the dynamic between Putin and Trump. It would make a huge amount of sense for Putin to do what he’s long been interested in, taking a huge chunk of Ukraine (even bigger than he already has), and do it in a way that would benefit his best bud Trump. Right now, a lot rests with the Ukrainian response. If they simply declare martial law and, well, that’s it, then things will get and stay tense for a while but gradually fade back to where they were before today’s incident.

But if you really wanted to be paranoid, you’d say that Putin will see the declaration of martial law as a provocation in itself and respond accordingly. So, while Putin has historically show a huge amount of caution about any direct attacks against Ukraine, he might see the writing on the wall for Trump and decide he would rather strike now while he has Vichy Trump in power. What’s more, by attacking Ukraine in a big way now, he would likely give Trump the cover he needs to fire Mueller, pardon half a dozen people and tweet up a storm that “now is on the time to worry about witch hunts” as Ukraine and Russia have at it in a big way.

This nightmare scenario works on the pretty big — and potentially erroneous — assumption: that Putin is actually interested in risking his long-term survival in a costly, needless war with Ukraine. It also assumes that Putin’s weighed the global order and sees a huge upside in attacking Ukraine and, say, taking Kiev and attempting to form a puppet state out of a huge chunk of seized Ukrainian territory. The thing is — Putin has shown zero indication that he actually is interested in doing that. He just wants to keep Ukraine off balance and unnerved enough to prevent it from fully uniting with the West. Or, at least, that’s my personal interpretation of things.

If Putin is going to act, it seems logical that he would act almost immediately. Like, tonight. But as best I can tell, he’s not going to do anything and, as I mentioned, it seems like tomorrow will be pretty perfunctory. Ukraine declares martial law, there’s some saber rattling and…nothing happens. And, really, the only reason why I am a little nervous is the connection between Putin and Trump. Like I said, logic would say that Putin will attack now not only because he’s wanted to attack Ukraine in a big way and Trump is likely to look the other way, but a really big war in Ukraine would be just the excuse, the cover, that Trump needs to not only wrap up the Mueller investigation, but have people “rally round the flag.”

At least, that would be the miscalculation that might lead us all down a major war between Ukraine and Russia. Or not. I won’t even go so far as to say “things are in flux.” Given the existential threat to Putin’s regime a long-term occupation of a huge chunk of Ukraine would be, it’s very possible simply nothing will happen. Everything will be on paper and generally we’ll forget about the incident quite quickly.

But who knows. As of this moment, it definitely seems as though there is an outside chance it could go either way.

Watch Me Be Paranoid: Is Putin Stirring Up Trouble With Ukraine To Help Trump?

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

This is really paranoid, but it would make a lot of sense if Putin knowing Mueller is maybe on the cusp of dropping some major indictments in the next few days stirred up a major foreign crisis with Ukraine which would give Trump the cover he needs to fire Mueller and pardon everyone he needs to pardon as we wait for the House to officially flip in January.

Like I said, I’m being really paranoid.

This isn’t possible, is it?

V-Log: Struggling To Address The Trump Era In Fiction

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

This one is about me trying to figure out how to address the chaos of the Trump Administration in a scifi novel.