As of Monday, Sept. 23, 2019, TrumpUkraine is following the usual Trump scandal playbook. It might be happening a little faster because of the severity and brazenness of the alleged crime, but we’re definitely cruising towards this wrapping up as a net plus for House Trump.
The press will willfully give House Trump the cover to appoint a Special Prosecutor to “look into” the Bidens “just to be sure” as a matter of “transparency.” While high information voters will be angry, the average person who doesn’t follow politics will not know who to believe. Besides, the economy is doing well. Lulz.
No one is showing any political courage at this point. There will come a point very soon when we’re so close to the beginning of the 2020 election cycle that Nancy Pelosi will put out a statement saying while Trump should be impeached, for the good of the nation, it’s best if we just “let the people decide” in November 2020.
It’s definitely not looking like absolutely nothing is going to happen to House Trump because of TrumpUkraine. Or, to put it in political terms, while the general consensus will be Trump should be impeached, he won’t be because the 2020 campaign will have begun. Surely he won’t be re-elected, will he?
Without any sense of there being consequences, Trump will grow more brazen. Lulz.
We all know that you’re enjoying the quiet life petting rescue goats, but your nation needs you. You are uniquely qualified to slice the boil of political paralysis the country is currently suffering as a result of the TrumpUkraine scandal.
When you get angry, things happen, things change. You are passionate and articulate and if you were to step forward to lead the Resistance in a final push to impeach Trump, then maybe it might happen. The only reason for this plea is right now we’re a would-be revolution without a leader. All the elements are there. We just need someone to strike the match.
You would have to step forward as a political figure, however. You would have to maybe even join Twitter. As it stands, no one is prepared to actually act against Trump in any meaningful way. Maybe if you spoke up clearly and forcefully, the now locked gears of the House might finally begin to move.
This is probably the most severe political crisis in the United States since the latter stages of Watergate. Unfortunately, this is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. You definitely would have to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.
Only you, I believe, would be able to coordinate the type of attack needed on House Trump. For the time being, Democrats running for president would need to unite in one common call — Trump has got to go. The political energy is now there for that to happen, but there’s no one to direct it.
Anyway, maybe you’re not interested. But I would like to note that Will Rodgers was active in Depression Era Democratic politics before his untimely death. But whatever decision you made, you’d have to make it soon, like now. We have a limited amount of time before this becomes just another Trump scandal in the eyes of the public and the 2020 presidential silly season kicks in in full force.
First, let me say for the record that I’m almost always wrong. I speculate a lot, but that’s more a matter of me liking to daydream than any sort of special insight. So, in a sense, it’s likely I’m wrong again.
And, yet, because of the brazen nature of Trump’s criminal behavior with Ukraine, it seems to me that anyone who continues to talk about how we’re just going to beat Trump in 2020 like we beat him in 2018 is missing the forest for the trees.
So far, the only thing that makes this particular scandal different is the intensity of the outrage associated with it has lasted just a little bit longer than normal. And, in a sense, that might be more a function of the media needing to hype the DNI’s testimony on Thursday. I would suggest everyone hold off on 2020 horse race hot takes until at least the hearing takes place.
In all likelihood, the hearing’s going to be a dud, just like Mueller’s. Trump and MAGA get to crow about all the lies of the “lamestream media” and that will be that. In that case, I just don’t see how there’s going to be a free and fair election. I’ve gotten some pushback on my belief that autocratic populists always win. My reponse is the Electoral College is a uniquely American feature of our election process. Democrats could easily win the popular vote, only to lose the Electoral College because of any number of different skullduggery techniques by House Trump.
There’s a tiny chance that the entire march to the Iowa Caucuses could be thrown for a loop. There’s at least a greater-than-zero chance that some pretty speculator political events could take place between now and early 2020. I have my doubts because, well, Trump has a cult of personality. And, yet, for the time being, I have a nagging, lingering feeling that it’s a least possible all these people telling us that this or that person will benefit from not impeaching Trump…may….have…their plans scrambled.
But, in all likelihood, Trump is fine. This will all fizzle out like it always does and darkness will fall.
Trump has generated numerous sizable scandals over the run of his administration to date. To date, either they explode for about a 24 hour period, or they gradually fade from view as people process what happened. The most recent scandal, TrumpUkraine, is different for one important reason — it’s existential.
Any outcome will mark a watershed in modern American politics. It doesn’t matter what happens, we will have entered a new era. If it goes as expected and after the acting DNI testifies before Congress on Thursday all the energy for impeachment fizzles out, then Trump will be even more brazen in his corrupt, criminal behavior. If this is dismissed as just another scandal trumped up by liberals with Trump Derangement Disorder, then there will not be a free and fair election in 2020. Not even close. It’s going to be pretty perfunctory.
There really will be no stopping Trump at that point. He will be above the law. The Constitution won’t really even be in effect anymore. That’s the most likely outcome. I would give it about a 99% likelihood. Republicans have no shame and Democrats have no courage.
But, just for fun, let’s imagine things don’t quite go that way. If instead of all the momentum for impeachment abruptly vanishing like during the later part of the Muller Report situation, what if the pressure to somehow miraculously increases. If the issue of the complaint itself being released becomes the focal point, then I would imagine all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench would slow walk it. That would be their way of effectively making impeachment a moot point. The impeachment investigation would dwindle over the months of the case bouncing around the court system and Trump uses the levers of power to win reelection. Sometime in the middle of his second term it goes to SCOTUS and he wins. Again, game over.
That scenario is also far more likely than the good guys winning. But let’s, just for fun again, imagine that somehow it doesn’t get slow walked. Imagine that it actually bounces around the Judiciary pretty quick. Then, again, any decision would be significant. If SCOTUS sides with Trump, then darkness falls.
But if somehow SCOTUS shocks us all and rules again Trump, then that would be the final endgame. As I’ve said before, this is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. Trump would rather destroy the Constitution than turn over the complaint. So, he ignores the ruling and the Senate won’t convict him. Ta-da. Again, darkness falls.
If somehow the Senate did convict him — which it would not, never — then we have a 9/11 level crisis while we wait to evict Trump from the Oval Office. He will never leave if he was somehow convicted. We will have to physically remove him.
For someone so paranoid and willing to fight back, Trump often doesn’t take existential problems seriously at first. Several times over the last four or so years, starting with the Access Hollywood tape, Trump has initially laughed off or dismissed scandals threatened his political existence.
So, in a sense, we’re still in the beginning stages of this particular situation. Trump’s playing with the press’ mind, tell them he’s “considering” releasing the complaint against them, when, in fact, he has no intention of doing it. This causes confusion and initial relief among people who are growing ever-more worried about what’s going on. Soon enough, of course, we’re going to find out this is total bullshit. If past is any indication, if Trump “releases” the complaint it will be at first a summary and then once momentum to impeach dies down, he’ll get Bill Barr to release a heavily redacted version of the complaint. At least, that would follow the well-worn path hone by the Stormy Daniels and Muller Report situations. Trump appears to be using a variety of different oft-used techniques at this point. And they appear to be working. So, really, there’s no need for him to really be all that concerned.
Having said that, while I still believe in practical terms the current Washington convention wisdom is while Trump should be impeached, he won’t be impeached, I do feel a level of tension on Twitter I’ve not seen since the worst days of the lead up to The Muller Report. And some of the usual suspects when it comes to opposition to Trump have clearly been subtly radicalized by what we know so far about what Trump is accused of doing.
And so, really, Trump would have every reason to believe that while things might get a little bumpy between now and Thursday when the acting DNI is set to testify, in real terms this is just another scandal that will blow over. There will be all this excitement about an explosive testimony and it’ll be a big old dud. Within 24 hours, Trump will do God-only-knows what in his never-ending quest to secure re-election using any available lever of power at his disposal. Take into consideration that either Trump will instruct the guy not to testify in the first place or make it clear he can only talk about such a limited number of topics that it’s nearly moot for him to speak at all What’s more, he is likely to do that old stonewalling routine TrumpWorld is so fond of where he never actually invokes Executive Privilege but uses it anyway not to have to answer any questions. And House Democrats are completely incompetent when it comes to questioning.
As such, as of Sunday afternoon, I would predict that by Friday morning MAGA will be crowing that yet again the lamestream media got it wrong and Trump should be able to simply stay in office for the rest of his life because that would be the only fair thing to do.
For this not to be the case, something dramatically different would have to happen. Something that diverged from the Stormy Daniels-Mueller Report playbook. I’m at a loss as to what that might be. Populist autocrats always win. They never lose once they’re in power. So, in that sense, it’s too late. The worst case scenarios of 2016 are about to happen. It’s just a matter of the specifics.
Now, simply to make myself feel better, I’m going to walk you through the most insane, bonkers scenarios I can possibly thing of what might happen if the impossible happens — political gravity actually begins to work again with Trump.
Trump Start A War This is a gimmy. We’re already on the verge of a war with Iran. Within days of it becoming apparent that he faced an existential threat, Trump attacks Iran. Poof! Problem solved. By the time things get back to normal, Trump’s comfortably in this second term. Far less likely is somehow Trump starts a war with the DPRK. I always thought if there was Korean unification it would probably happen in some really weird way. Trump force-starting such a war in an effort to wag the dog would definitely fit the bill.
MAGA Murders The Whistleblower After A Trump “Joke” While this one might seem somewhat hysterical, it would be appropriate for Trump to finally — in effect — kill someone on Fifth Ave and not lose a vote. As sinks in to our doofus president that he faces an existential political threat, Trump doxes the whistleblower on Twitter. He rants that the guy is a member of the Deep State and “jokes” that someone ought to teach him a lesson. Some rando MAGA jackass with an AR-15 shoots up the guys house and kills him and maybe a few family members. Lulz! Fox News sends “thoughts and prayers” and Brit Hume ever-so-seriously says we simply can’t hold the president responsible for a “joke” that caused an obviously mentally-ill person to commit such a tragedy.
The Roy Cohen Option If Trump escapes political consequences AGAIN, then he orders Bill Barr to establish a Special Prosecutor to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden. Not only is everything muddled — like always — but Trump can always do the drip-drip-drip of 2016, only this time he’s in control of it. At strategic moments in 2020, Trump attacks the Bidens for this or that bullshit thing.
Trump Breaks The Constitution In this scenario, Trump leans into all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench. The release of the complaint bounces around for months — maybe even years. (But let’s say months.) It’s August 2020. This, in a sense, is a worst-case-scenario. Most likely Trump destroys faith in SCOTUS when he wins the case against him to release the complaint 5-4. Really, it would boil down to one person — Chief Justice Roberts. If he has a modicum of integrity, he will vote with the more liberal members of the court, giving us a 5-4 vote against Trump. This is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. If Trump somehow miraculously lost the SCOTUS case, he would simply ignore it. That would be that. The entire Constitutional system collapses. Trump might actually get impeached, but Emmet Flood pops up when the case is briefly heard in the Senate. Trump easily escapes conviction. We never see the complaint or Trump’s taxes. House Trump enjoys The Thousand Year Trump. History looks back upon The United States as simply a longer-lived version of the Weimar Republic. Trump doesn’t even attempt to pretend the election is free and fair. Might even just make good on his “joke” and stay in office for the rest of his life.
If we get anywhere past this, well, we’re entering 9/11 levels of crisis.
Trump Resigns, With Conditions So, if a bunch of Republicans Senators should happen to go to the White House a la 1974 and tell Trump he doesn’t have the votes, there is a chance that he would resign, but only with some pretty stiff conditions. One would be he would get a full pardon. The other one would be he would get to pick Pence’s replacement as Veep. Trump has a chat with his kids and somehow decides between the one he wants to fuck (Ivanka) and the one who has his name (Don Jr.) This would, in a sense, secure House Trump. In 2024, there’s a battle between House Trump and Pence. Guess who wins!
The Impossible Happens This is so impossible, it’s almost a waste of time to even write these words — Trump is convicted in the Senate after he scoffs at the idea the doesn’t have the votes in the Senate. The only thing I can imagine in this situation would be, well, something pretty tragic. Trump holds up in the White House, refusing to acknowledge the decision. He rage-tweets all day long. He snaps because of the pressure losing the presidency. We have a few days of figuring out how to change the nuclear codes. Trump tweets out a dick pick. He calls Obama the N-word on Twitter. He threats to kill himself. He says anything and everything in an attempt to get the MAGA faithful to rush to the White House to protect him. For a surreal few days — maybe even weeks — Trump holds the entire county captive. Even I can’t predict how that particular situation might wrap up.
But, really, I think Trump has nothing to worry about. He’s going to cruise into a second term, weaponize the ICE camp infrastructure and I get a free bed in one of the camps.
In fact, I would say the only thing that makes this Ukraine scandal different is the severity of the crimes alledged makes it difficult for us to muddle through. There’s going to be a decision one way or another and whatever it is, there’s no turning back.
I recently found myself talking to MAGA people on Periscope. What was interesting about it was every MAGA rhetorical device used to “own the moment” was used.
You can’t get angry. If Trump destroying the country makes you angry, then you suffer from “Trump Derangement Disorder.” This is meant to own the moment in the sense that you end up talking about that, not the issue at hand.
Attack you personally. This is another way to own the moment. They think of the worst possible thing to say about you so you’re distracted. You struggle to come up with a response and, again, you’re not talking about the issue at hand.
‘Fake news’ If you do bring receipts, they say it’s fake news. Again, they want to own the moment. If you can’t agree on facts, then what’s the point of having a discussion at all.
Distraction. Bobbing and weaving is a classic MAGA discussion technique. The whole point is to not address the issue that they’re obviously losing ground on. This is a prime example of how MAGA is a cult of personality not debating Trump in good faith.
“I’ll get back to you.” This is a way for them to, again, not address the issue at hand. They tell you to give them your facts and they will decide for themselves if it’s true or not. This a way to wrap the conversation up without any resolution that involves proving that Trump may, in fact, have been in error.
“Democrats scare me” If you’ve gotten this far in the discussion, then you should give up. This is their pivot into reverse polarization. And, remember, every moment your talking about something else, you’re not talking about whatever it is that you’ve proven Trump’s done.
Whoa Buddy. As I keep saying, this weekend is make or break. If Trump can make it through this weekend without the Ukraine story getting any unusual traction, then he’s in the clear for his second term. And, honestly, I don’t see him having any reason to be concerned. This scandal not only is playing out like all his other scandals, the attention the press is giving to the Joe Biden – Hunter Biden big lie is actually a net gain for him.
So, as of right now, Trump is probably feeling pretty content. He was all smiles at last night’s state dinner. Rudy went on CNN this week, did his usual schick of putting the facts out there in a way that makes people shrug when it’s all confirmed.
So far, so good.
But just for fun, let’s imagine something about this scandal is different. Let’s suppose it shifts gears and it become existential. Let me be clear — this is never going to happen. Trump is now America’s Caligula. So this is more a matter of venting on my part that any belief that any of this might happen.
The first sign we might get that Trump is taking this seriously is he will shift gears on Iran pretty dramatically. He will pull out the stops to start a war with Iran. He has to time it just right so people are humming Lee Greenwood when they go to the polls in 2020. Another tacit he might use is begin an aggressive investigation into Joe and Hunter Biden. He’s established that he believes they did something. And such an investigation in itself is news and The New York Times will cover it extensively, even if the whole thing is politically motivated bullshit. Doesn’t matter. It’s all about the big lie and branding.
That’s just Trump clearing his throat. His more diabolical move would be to dox the whistleblower and “joke” that someone should do something about it. Shades of, “Won’t anyone rid me of this meddlesome priest.”
So the guy gets murdered by an angry mob of MAGA people. Sure, Twitter is upset for a day, but Nancy Pelosi won’t impeach Trump because it makes the moderate members of her caucus nervous. At this point, she is the only obstacle to impeachment.
But should impeachment take on a life of its own, Trump’s already deranged behavior will take a turn for the worst in a very dark way. Remember, he does often rage tweet. So, if he’s in actual risk of being impeached — even if the Senate will never convict him — he’s likely to say and do some pretty astonishing things.
And should he be convicted, he will never leave the Oval Office. It will be a 9/11-sized event. But that will never, never, never, NEVER happen.
This is what’s going to happen unless something I can’t predict happens.
Nancy Pelosi, concerned about the moderate members of her caucus, refuses to budge on impeaching Trump.
Trump sees this as the final confirmation that he can do whatever he wants. He kicks off his re-election campaign on Twitter by talking about Joe and Hunter Biden non-stop. The New York Times begins to write story after story about this situation, leaving the lingering suspicion that Biden or his son — or both — are about to be indicted.
Trump’s reckless and illegal extortion of Ukraine will fade. But the Joe Biden “scandal” will only grow. Trump will direct Bill Barr to look into the situation at some point in early 2020. Probably just about the time Biden successfully secures the nomination. Or no later than when he makes his acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention.
In the lead up to November’s election, there are a series of leaks from the Justice Department about the investigation into Joe Biden. The October surprise is Hunter Biden is indicted. (If Trump’s feeling really bold, he’ll indict Biden himself.)
We have a replay of 2016, with Biden winning the popular vote and Trump winning the Electoral College. If Trump doesn’t win the Electoral College, he doxxes them all on Twitter or a plutocrat bribes them. They throw the election to Trump. Given that nothing is impeachable, we spend a few months fighting over how American democracy is dead. Maybe there are riots in a few Blue States.
But nothing’s impeachable, so he weaponizes the existing ICE camp infrastructure. He “disappears” thousands of people. Trump pardons a few dozen people. The battle between Don Jr. and Ivanka to succeed Trump reaches a boiling point.
House Trump now begins The Thousand Year Trump. Taxes are cut to such an extent that we have to gut social programs to prevent bankruptcy. Gradually because of all the young, hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench freedom of assembly and speech are gradually worn away.
After the mass murder at Sandy Hook there was a lot of outrage. For a day or so, it appeared as though there might be some sort of common sense gun control enacted in the United States. As we know, of course, the NRA stepped in and it was over.
That’s the only comparison I can make to the most recent scandal involving Trump and Ukraine. Really, if you can’t impeach Trump over this, then impeachment is a dead letter. It’s over. Not only will we never impeach Trump, he’s made it clear that he will grow ever more embolden if he doesn’t sense there are any consequences.
That’s the real existential threat of all of this. That Trump would have initiated a call with the president of Ukraine took exort him into investigating Joe Biden the day after Bob Mueller testified to Congress is all the proof you need that need that Trump is not only a lawless tyrant but that he’s going to get worse.
I honestly don’t know what to tell you. The forces aligned that keep impeachment from happening don’t appear to be weakening. Nancy Pelosi continues to play six dimensional chess in a strange obsession with protecting the more modern members of her caucus. That the entire country itself faces an existential threat does not appear to concern her.
So, really, we will know in a few days if this scandal is Trump’s Sandy Hook or if it’s something different for once. He definitely seems to be using the Stormy Daniels playbook. He has no reason to think this is any different than the last six mind blowing scandals he’s been involved in.
While I generally think Trump’s won and will consolidate his power in the coming days, I would note that if he does feel this is an existential threat that he will provoke a crisis in the United States not seen since 9/11. It will be an American Brexit.
Everyday we don’t impeach Trump is a day he gains power.
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