Tag: We Are So Fucked

The 2024 Election Is Rushing Towards Us

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. I continue to be very, very worried about what is going to happen as part of the 2024 election. I only feel this way because, as I keep saying — you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once. At the moment, it seems like this is going to be just another election.

And, yet, there are two pretty dark scenarios that we have to address.

One is, Trump loses and he rants about the need for a National Divorce. That leads states — probably starting with Texas and / or South Carolina to head for the door, leaving the Union. I know how paranoid that sounds, but Texas in particular is already itching to leave the Union because of the situation at the border.

The other, even darker situation, is Trump wins and he goes full tyrant to the point that he is, in some way, deposed. That causes a civil war because Red States leave the Union in protest.

I don’t *really* think such a thing is going to happen, but I do worry. I worry a whole lot.

We’re Not Taking Trump’s Ranting About Deporting 20 Million People Serious Enough

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even though Kamala Harris is beginning to look like she might win, I’m still very uneasy about the consequences of a Trump victory. We have to take seriously the idea that Trump may very well make good on his vow to deport 20 million people.

I talk to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and they seem either eager for the deportations to begin or simply blasé and non-committal about it all. They wave their hands and mutter something about “both sides.”

Anyway, if Trump does somehow win, I still am uneasy that he may go “full tyrant” and, as such, somehow be deposed. I have no idea how such a thing would happen, but if he really did go full tyrant…some pretty shocking and historic things could happen one way or another.

I don’t want such things to happen, but I like to think in the macro and it seems if Trump tried to deport 20 million people overnight someone, somewhere in the United States might take notice of such a shocking thing.

But, who knows. No one listens to me. And they probably shouldn’t.

I’m Seeing Way Too Militant MAGA Signs In Rural Virginia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I drove to and fro Richmond over the weekend and there were a growing number of very “MAGA or death” yard signs here and there along my trek. It was very unsettling. It reminds me — again — of what might happen if ding-dong Trump loses, much less if he wins.

If he loses, it seems as though there is a real chance of a civil war — with Virginia being at the forefront of the state to simply implode. I could see some rather dramatic things happen, like coups and counter-coups in Richmond. I could see half the counties of Virginia deciding to secede to form a MAGA state if they don’t get their way with the entire state seceding.

And it could all happen this fall.

It is all very alarming. Add to this Trump’s ranting about mass deportation if he wins and…yikes! It definitely seems as though it’s possible the next 18 months could see some pretty fucking dramatic political events in the United States no matter what happens or who wins in November.

All I can say is I’ve voted. There’s not much I can do otherwise — or will do, if nothing else.

Well, I Voted — Fuck Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I live in a state that allows for early voting, so I did just that today. It was quite pleasing. While I just don’t believe in “voting harder,” I do believe that you should at least vote.

I’m well aware that there is much, much, much more that I could do on a practical basis to defeat Trump. But I dunno. That’s just not my scene. It would be totally out of character for me to do such a thing.

I have to say, of course, that I continue to worry about post-election shenanigans on the part of MAGA Republicans. I just worry that there is a chance that if Trump loses that he’s going to rant about the need for a “National Divorce” if his efforts to cheat otherwise don’t work.

It’s all very unnerving, to say the least.

But who knows. Maybe

Worried About Being A Domestic Political Refugee Later This Year

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not REALLY worried about being forced out of my home if Trump loses — or, hell, if he wins — but I am uneasy. I’m uneasy that no matter who wins, the country could grow a lot more unstable than you might otherwise think.

It doesn’t help that all these Russians keep looking at my scenario whereby it’s the Blues, not the Reds who start a civil war because the Reds cheat in some sort of post-election certification imbroglio. I know that sounds really far fetch at the moment, but, lulz, stranger things and all that.

But as I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so, oh boy. There are a lot of scenarios whereby things at some point after the election take a sharp left turn into chaos and the whole country heaves with chaos and confusion.

And it could be either side that causes it, depending on who wins, how and why. That’s really the scary part to me — even if Trump gets what he wants, he could single handedly cause a civil war by being such a tyrant — going “full tyrant,” if you will — that he is somehow deposed (probably by the U.S. Military.)

I know people like Tom Nichols think that’s crazy talk, but if Trump went full tyrant I do think there is a greater-than-zero chance he might, just MIGHT be deposed.

It will be nuts to see, but it’s possible. THAT is when the civil war would start when Red states leave the Union in protest.

Anyway, I just hope I’m being paranoid and over thinking things.

The Risk Of A Post-Election Certification Crisis If Harris Wins Is Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve written about this potential problem from every possible angle I’ve been able to think up over the last few years, but that doesn’t make the possibility of a certification crisis any less real.

There are a variety of ways it could work out, from micro issues at the local level all the way to macro issues in the House. But the fact remains, like the old saying goes — you go bankrupt gradually then all at once.

In this particular instance, this phrase means that we could all get sucker punched out of the blue when what should happen, doesn’t happen. Harris could squeak through a victory, only to “lose” the election because of this or that post-election certification shenanigans.

This raises the question — are Blue states willing to go mano-a-mano with Red states as to making sure the legal winner of the election is sworn in? That is a question I just don’t know at the moment.

I would prefer no political violence for obvious reasons. And I’m not in any way promoting any such thing, but I do fear that if such things were to happen that I will become a domestic political refugee because well, my state — Virginia — is actually two states fused together who absolute hate each other.

If there is any significant post-election political violence, Virginia will be in the thick of things. It is one of a few states that will simply collapse into chaos as quickly as possible.

And that will suck, big time.

I don’t think people appreciate how sucky it will be on a practical basis if there is any sort of civil war in the United States. The race war in the Deep South alone will make the whole thing intolerable. And we’ve not even begun to address the possibility of billions — billions — dying across the globe when nuclear tipped regional wars break out.

Ugh.

I just don’t think people are taking all of this seriously enough.

Things Are Feeling A Little Hot Politically In The USA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I jack back into the American political scene after….an extended strange period of time in my life…the more I am uneasy about what may happen in the post-election period.

They say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once and it definitely seems as though we may lurch into something pretty dark soon after the election of 2024 is over. The post-election process could go haywire in a number of different ways that I have detailed at length on this blog over the years.

One big fear I have right now is Trump loses outright, but he really leans into all sorts of shenanigans surrounding certification of votes on a local basis. His goal will be to force a direct confrontation with the Blues to the point that he could steal the election and cause a civil war with it being Blues, not Reds who leave the Union or otherwise cause problems.

Or something like that. Something bad.

And it doesn’t help that I keep seeing Russians look at this blog interested in just that type of scenario. My fear, of course, is they are going to use my scenarios as a blueprint in some sort of nefarious backchannel with the Trump campaign.

I know I’m being really paranoid, but stranger things have happened.

I’m Still Unnerved By The Prospect Of Russians Using My Civil War Scenarios As Part Of A Back Chanel With The Trump Campaign

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to see evidence that Russians are interested in my dystopian Second American Civil War scenarios. My fear continues to be that the Russians are going to use a backchannel with the Trump campaign to use my scenarios as a blueprint for how a civil war might actually happen.

Stranger things, and all that.

But there’s little I can do at this point, I suppose. How could I possibly have predicted that I would come up with such a good scenario that it might actually influence the real world?

It could be, of course, that I’m over thinking things. I could be that the Russians I see in my Webstats are just interested out of curiosity and not, like some sort of evil plot thought up with the Trump campaign.

Texas & Post-Election Problems

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Of all the states of the Union, Texas is the state that might be the biggest risk of some sort of actual flare up of significant political violence. Sometimes, it seems as though the state already has one foot out of the Union as it is.

But if Trump loses — or if he wins through some sort of certification shenanigans — it is Texas where the biggest risk of some sort of Secession Crisis might happen. If or something. Something Bad.

If Trump loses outright, then he might rant about the need for Red States to leave the Union because they can never “get a fair shake.” Texas, of all the states in the Union is the most likely to take him up on it.

Meanwhile, if Trump loses but “wins” through post-election ratfucking and the Blues call him on it, then, too, Texas might be a serious problem.

But, who knows. I’m just a rando living in oblivion.

Taking The Prospect of Civil War Seriously…Again

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I used to think it was almost inevitable that there would be some sort of severe political violence this fall, no matter who won. Things were kind of hot.

But now, I’m not nearly as sure.

I think there is a good chance that things will be really bumpy, but it’s highly unlikely that there will be a civil war if Trump loses.

If he wins, however, because of Project 2025 bullshit, there is, in fact, a good chance that he will somehow *somehow* be “toppled” or some such and that, by definition, will lead to a civil war with Red States leaving the Union in protest.

But even that is a lot less likely that I feared previously.

I think things should go pretty well, no matter what.