‘Something Doesn’t Add Up:’ Feb. 29th #COVID19 #CoronaVirus Threat Assessment

What happens next?
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner

I’m not an expert. But I can read. And here’s what I know to be true:

South Korea, Italy and Iran all saw exponential growth in cases of COVID19 after their first cases were registered. They knew this because they had socialize medicine and could test people pretty fast. When they did, they had a metric to use — the number of people they knew were infected.

Let’s turn to the United States.

We have four recorded cases in the last 24 hours and nothing, in real terms, is changing. And we have only a limited ability to test people. In fact, even though the testing front is getting much better, it’s still going to take some time to test people and get the result back. And, in real terms, we’re not changing our behavior on the ground. So, it seems possible that when we do finally get around to testing that we may be in for something of a Pearl Harbor moment when we realize it’s too late — we have cases in all 50 states.

That, in turn, would likely lead to a massive panic. And, soon enough, it’s possible we may reach our Jan. 1942 moment — the whole country buckles and it looks as though the Apocalypse has, at last, arrived. Then leaders will pop here and there on the State and local level and things will begin to get better pretty quick. People will still get sick and a lot more people than need be will die, but, in the end, we’ll manage to get through it all.

But, of course, there’s no assurance the “good guys” will win. There could be massive political violence, revolution, counter-revolution and civil war. What came up from the ashes of that situation would be anyone’s guess. And that doesn’t even factor in the possibility of a limited nuclear exchange between the United States and the DPRK along the way.

And, yet, let’s try to think of where the serious, major outbreaks might happen in the United States in the coming days. Here are my guesses and the reason.

Nevada (Lunar New Year, Caucuses)
NYC (Midtown tourists)
Florida (Superbowl)
LA (Lots of awards)
Iowa (Caucuses)
South Carolina (Primary)
Washington, DC (Impeachment trial, lots of foreign visitors)

There are probably others, but once we have our Pearl Harbor moment, the above are the places we might see massive numbers of people get sick and, sadly, die. I don’t want this. I would much rather suffer through Trump’s Fourth Reich than have something that horrific happen.

And, maybe, I’m wrong. Maybe jumping to conclusions. I do that a lot. Hopefully, I’m wrong and I can, at last, go back to developing my novel.

Peculiar Pontiff Predicament? #COVID19 #CoronaVirus

Shelton Bumgarner

By Shelt Garner

What is going on with the Pope? One minute I’m hearing he’s got a “cold,” the next I’m hearing that is “fake news,” the next minute I’m hearing he keeps missing his public appearances. I just checked and it definitely seems as though the Pope is, in fact, sick with…a cold?

So apparently what someone said was fake news, was, in fact, itself fake news? The Pope really is sick. I have long suggested that if we saw a series of elderly celebrities and politicians die in quick succession that that would be a pretty good indication that we had a Coronavirus pandemic on our hands. That, to date, has not happened. And maybe never will.

And maybe the Pope really does just have a cold. It’s possible.But he does have Coronavirus, we should be told. But I guess the Vatican simply doesn’t want to scare people any more than they already are.

I don’t know what to make of this situation. Correlation is not causation, so he might just have a cold at a very inopportune time.

Pence Pandemic Politics #COVID19 #CoronaVirus

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner

To understand what’s going on right now with Trump and a looming pandemic on a political level, you have to go back to the origins of MAGA. Something about Obama’s second term freaked angry white Baby Boomers out. They realized, at last, that long-term demographics weren’t on their side and, as such, they grew full of rage. Probably what happened was the Russians noticed this envelopment and began a long-term plot to get Trump in as president. It was probably one of a number of geopolitical ratfucking ideas they had and it just happened to be the one that paid off on a rather massive level.

So, in a sense, Trump is very lucky. He’s a complete moron. A stooge. A pasty for the agenda of our biggest geopolitical foe. But, for the time being, he’s president. The MAGA base is now a death cult. They would rather we all die that admit that they were used in a crass political fashion for the needs of plutocrats and Russians.

This is the point where I say people across the political spectrum are not taking the possibility of a pandemic seriously. While Trump is obviously the most conspicuous and egregious, the center-Left has, the last few days, seen this crisis as an opportunity to score short term political points. You would, too, if a racist misogynist had scream at you at the top of his lungs for about four years.

One person the MAGA base isn’t thrilled with right now is Mike Pence. And Trump knows this, so, he’s hung Pence out to dry by making him the point man for the Trump Administration’s attempt to control a growing pandemic. Now, this is where things may get a little surreal. Given that we’re FINALLY beginning to test across the country, Pence’s attempts to message the base by saying everything is fine may grow rather dated even before their air tomorrow morning. If we wake up tomorrow morning to learn that 20 states have dozens of cases each, then, well, Pence isn’t going to look so great. (The exact chronology of how this might happen is up in the air, of course. But you get the picture.)

Now, the issue is, because Trump is a moron — not the political genius that access journalist Maggie Haberman would have us to believe — when things grow far, far FAR more dire than Trump could possibly imagine and his usual Stormy Daniel bullshit playbook is completely destroyed by, well, the reality that the MAGA base is experiencing, then the whole administration faces an existential problem. What happens then, is anyone’s guess. Or, to put it another way, when someone like Hugh Hewitt or Rick Santorum begin to act more like their 2012 selves again, then, well, Trump is in deep, deep trouble. Whatever those two guys said that would make me drop my jaw in shock would likely mean things have gotten very, very bad across the country. They’ve both invested so much in MAGA — and Trump as a person — for them to finally admit, again, that the sky is blue would likely be extremely surreal.

And it still may not happen. It’s possible that Trump will, again, escape and the Fourth Reich will grow in power and I’ll endup in a ICE death camp wit American Killing Fields as I’ve repeatedly predicted the last few years.

But if things really did get that bad — not that I want them to, mind you — Trump will either finally snap mentally in a rather spectacular fashion, or he will be seen through the lends of normal American politics and his power via the MAGA base will, at last, begin to wilt. A lot of Republicans who have felt a feudal fidelity to Trump will abruptly begin to distance themselves. Given how all-in they’ve been the last three years this event will be mindbogglingly surreal. It will be like returning to earth after three years in space.

And, really, it might even be just a moment in time. A few days until Trump collects his wits and uses the fact that a lot of people are dying as an excuse to consolidate power and we go back to the usual bullshit. My mind almost can’t even imagine how bad the pandemic would have to get for this to happen. Because the next, very, very, VERY late step in the game would be for Trump — if he’s not whipping his cock out and stroking it on TV by this point — to begin to pick people with some actual professionalism to speak for the administration, not political hacks. He would only do such a drastic thing if the usual rules of American politics came back so hard that he realized he wasn’t even going to be seen as a Republican Jimmy Carter. He would, at least, be seen for what he is — a real-life, deranged Chauncey Gardner.

But I really don’t want things to have to get that bad. I have come to accept that Trump is probably going to come after me — and people like me — in his second term and I’m going to die in an ICE camp killing field. If you think that’s just me having “Trump Derangement Disorder,” you can fuck off and eat shit you fucking MAGA fascist.

Going Down The Logical Rabbit Hole Of Trump’s #COVID19 ‘Hoax’ Comment

by Shelt Garner

Oh boy. Trying to untie the logic behind Trump’s comment at his recent South Carolina Nuremberg rally is going to take some time. So, according to Trump at the news conference today, what he meant was the concern that the press was showing was the hoax, not the virus itself.


So, in essence, he’s using the Zoolander argument MAGA is so fond of — he’s too bad a speaker, and too stupid, for anyone to accuse him of being a poorly informed racist misogynist hypocrite. But, really, it also admits that Trump wants it both ways.

He wants to scream at the top of his lungs to the base that the evil liberals are out to get him then within hours turn around and “respectfully” as the press not to hurt him by explaining how bad things are. It’s the same-old same-old scream at you to win power, then once power is attained scream at you for having Trump Derangement Disorder if you have the gall to scream back.

The reason why this usual bullshit begins to fall apart with COVID19 is, well, people’s lives are at stake. So the dynamic is significantly different. Or, to put a more fine point on it, old white people‘s lives are at stake. So, for once, MAGA may find themselves having to take Trump’s lies and bullshit both seriously and literally.

That’s a rather existential threat for Trump whose political power comes from lying and dog whistles. If he has to act like a traditional politician — and is judged by those metrics, his political goose is cooked.

And he knows it.

The Gray Plague: COVID19, The Villages & The (Unlikely, But Possible) Fall Of The House Of Trump & MAGA

by Shelt Garner

I’ve told the MAGA people I know repeatedly over the last four years that they will dominate American politics for at least the next 20 years. On a macro level, we have about 20 years before the youngest of the Baby Boomers finally shuffle off this mortal coil. So, from a demographic level, we’re probably going to have a succession of Trumps with the occasional Mike Pompeo or Nikki Haley thrown in for good measure. That’s our future. MAGA’s version of warmed-over fascism is our future. It’s 100% or future. The end. Good night and good luck.


The possibility of The Gray Plague is staring us in the face. It’s at least possible that given the systemic corruption of incompetence of the Trump Administration that if, say, that bastion of MAGA codgerland known as The Villages erupted with COVID19 cases and A LOT OF PEOPLE STARTED DYING that maybe Trump might not have the absolute lock on angry white Baby Boomers? I’m not suggesting that MAGA faces an existential threat — yet — but it might get the wind knocked out of it for at least one election cycle. Maybe. Remember, for all the talk about Watergate, Ford only BARELY LOST in 1976. So things would have to grow demonstrably catastrophic in the United States for Trump’s connection to the Baby Boomer volk to in any way degrade.

Put another way, if The Villages imploded, Trump would probably freak out in a rather spectator fashion. His absolute physiological need to win would strike the absolute likelihood that he might, at last, face some potential political consequences with the base. Given that MAGA is a massive cancer on America, for there to be any real chemo used against it, a lot of people would — very tragically — have to die for it to happen. I don’t want that and I’d much rather take my chances with Trump’s Fourth Reich.

The point I’m trying to make is, even if Trump faces a possible existential threat with The Gray Plague, the hate and fear of brown people and “takers” that he represents ain’t going anywhere and we’re all fucked.

No One Listens To Me #CoronaVirus #COVID19

by Shelt Garner

While I’m no fucking Oracle, I do believe I’ve gotten within the spectrum of predicting the real-life pandemic scenario that’s now rapidly unfolding around us. I said it would probably be today that the story started, and it is. But we still haven’t gotten to the “inciting incident” when the plot really begins.

It seems to me this scenario’s inciting incident will be one of several things that may happen within hours or days.

50 For 50 Test Results This Weekend
Now that we’re actively testing people across the country, what happens when every fucking State has at least one case? If it happens this weekend, then Trump and his toadies are going to look just as bad as W. with his “Mission Accomplished” sign behind his back on the aircraft carrier. And the conditions are there for it happen rather rapidly.

The WuFlop Comes To America
This is the wildcard. But the moment it recorded happening in the United States — especially somewhere like NYC or LA — then we’re going to the show. The entire nation will freak the fuck out. My fear it will happen at some recorded live event, say, Saturday Night Live. That’s kind of the nightmare scenario. To date, it’s just been CCTV recordings.

Bonus: The Gray Plague
There are a lot of old, powerful and well-known people in the world right now. If, say, The Pope dies in the next 24-48 hours, well, that, in itself, would be a news event and lurch us into the a major crisis that would likely take about a year — at least — to sort itself out.

Anyway, I feel as though my work here is done. I’ve proved my point — I’m pretty good at building real-world scenario and I don’t know jack shit about anything. I’ll keep at it for no other reason than that’s my nature. But, lulz, I’m just a crank, right Maggie Haberman?

‘6.7m’ #CoronaVirus Threat Assessment For Feb. 29th, 2020

What do I know?
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner


I think at least two (2) planeloads of Americans came directly from Wuhan, the COVID19 hotzone, in the last two months. In at least one of those instances, improper protective attire was worn by the staff because this IS the Trump Administration we’re talking about.

The death rate in Wuhan is about 2%.

It does seem as though it’s at least possible that they have a more potent strain of the virus. But it may be they just have a lot more under reporting of cases.

They have been the source of a lot of cases in the last few days (!). Much of Europe is beginning to get COVID19 from the Milan area.

South Korea
These guys are doing a great job testing and they STILL think it’s possible things could get out of control.

Uh oh.

We have reports of three states — California, Oreg an and Washington – having communal transition as of today. If you assume that maybe 200,000 people move in and out of those areas in any, say, three days, that’s a lot of chances for the communal transmission to bounce around the entirety of the United States very, very quickly.

Very little testing has been done to date.

No change in personal or group behavior.

Trump continues to have rallies.

The 2020 presidental campaign is in full swing. South Carolina has a rally today, Super Tuesday is on Tuesday.

About 47 million people in the United States are elderly.

My conclusion
About 6.7 million Americans, (2% of 335 million) may die directly from Trump being a bad president. I only say that because by the time we do get around to testing, a huge chunk of the American population will likely be infected.

By the end of the pandemic, nearly ever American might have been exposed because of administration incompetence when it really mattered at the early stages of the pandemic.

‘Beware, Columbia, The Ides Of March:’ The House Trump #COVID19 ‘Hoax’ Gambit #CoronaVirus

We Got This.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner

From what I can tell of MAGA’s take on the growing Corona Virus crisis, our addled Dear Leader believes that through sheer force of will he can escape any political consequences from what may be about to happen. He has every reason to believe this. Because about 35% of the population is deathly afraid of “scary brown people” and women with sexual agency, they are willing to give our doofus president absolute power. Absolute. Power.

So, it’s worked before, so why won’t it work again? A lot of people die from the flu each year, so House Trump believes they can message the base such that they shrug the whole thing off. They tell them they’re “patriots” for voting for Trump should there be a deep recession this year and, besides, Biden’s son is a criminal and Sanders is a Communist. Lulz! They think Trump will win exactly the same way he did last time — help from the Russians and a divided opposition. By 2022 he gets his Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and he gets to hand over the family business over to the doofus crown prince sometime around 2030.

There’s a problem for them now, however — Coronavirus. If it turns into the biggest domestic catastrophe since the Civil War, it’s at least POSSIBLE the MAGA death cult…might notice? If the economy locks up, the old die and the young starve, it’s within the realm of possibility that Trump’s absolute lock on the presidency might…maybe…work with me here…be a little less absolute?

The next few days — hell, hours — could be crucial. A lot of what is going ot happen may be determined by what has elapsed over the weekend when the Sunday morning political chat shows take place. If a dozen states report cases of Coronavirus and the entire nation is freaking out, then, well, that MIGHT be a little bit more difficult to write off as a simile “liberal media hoax” created by evil liberals who want to hurt our deranged Chauncey Gardner’s fee-fees out of spite. (Look way from the “fuck your feels” mantra of 2016, huh?)

The possibility that Trump’s absolute need to win at all costs slams against his absolute realization that he’s going to be blamed for the death of thousands (millions?) and while he’ll obviously still win because of Russian hacking, that at some point he might have an existential issue on his hands. At that point, he’s going to snap. He is going to lose his fucking mind. He may shut down the Internet. Shut the borders entirely. Order the Air Force to shoot down passenger planes. Tell his followers to murder people he doesn’t like. Whip out his cock and start to masturbate on TV. You name it, he might do it.

The issue for me is, how long before — should the worst happen — the entire country grinds to a halt socially and economically and Trump’s “Hoax Gambit” fails completely? The earliest it would fail, I think, would be Feb 29th. The latest it would fail would be the Ides of March, March 15. There’s something of a spectrum between those two dates, as well, of course.

It will definitely be interesting to see how bad things get before Trump either completely fucking loses his mind, or he, at last, reluctantly for a moment stops thinking about power, or his checkbook or the stockmarket and starts thinking about us, his charge.

He’s a fucking racist idiot. He may never do. He may, instead, simply end civilization rather admit defeat. I wish I was joking. And if you think I have “Trump Derangement Disorder,” let me tell you in advance to eat shit you piece of shit. The lives of millions are at stake and this is not a simple policy debate or me not liking Trump as a person. He’s a fucking idiot and a traitor. And if you support him, you’re complicit, you cockholster.

’02/29′ #CoronaVirus #COVID19

Get ready.
Shelton Bumgarner

Editor’s Note: I fucking hate the Trump Administration with a white hot rage. I want it destroyed, burned to the ground, lit on fire and buried. But I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas. I am also a former journalist, so I’m at least trying to give you an objective assessment of what’s going on. But, for the record: Fuck Trump. Fuck MAGA and Fuck You if you support either one of them. If you think that means I have “Trump Derangement Disorder,” please let me tell you in advance: eat shit.

by Shelt Garner

I’m not an expert. I can’t predict the future. I don’t have reveled truth. But I can read. And I am sentient enough to notice some alarming things about what’s going on — or not going on — in the United States right now.

The United States Isn’t Testing For COVID19
The reason why you test, as I understand it, is you have a metric. You have some sense of who has it, who they’ve come in contact with. It’s your first line of defense when it comes to controlling the spread of something as contagious as COVID19. If you aren’t testing, then essentially “jungle rules” apply and the contagion goes completely unchecked. As such, the number of people who are infectious increases exponentially as do, ultimately, the people who will get sick and maybe even die. The United States have tested about 500 people while the South Koreans have tested something like 30,000. So, as of right now, they’re on opposite ends of the spectrum.

South Korea is a small nation that’s testing everyone. The United States is big nation doing, effectively, nothing. So, while I keep being reassured that while this is bad outbreak, it’s not “THE BIG ONE.” And, yet, while on paper that may not be true, if the United States’ isn’t testing anyone, wouldn’t it make sense that the only metric we will ultimately have is, well, people getting sick and dying?

And, really, how would we even know that was happening?

The Gray Plague: Stars’ End
It seems to me that the only metric we will have is people dying, specifically elderly celebrities and political leaders. And, sad to say, the United States is pretty much run by old people at this point. So, if there WAS a massive culling of the American population of individuals 65 years of age and older, I suspect someone, somewhere — even MAGA — might notice this. There are about 47 million Americans who are considered “elderly” and, as you can see from this chart, the elderly face a significant increase in mortality because of COVID19

So, the mortality rate for people 60-80 starts at 3.6% and gets worse from there. There must be +50 million Americans who fit that bill. If you do absolutely nothing when it comes to testing for days after you know COVID19 is bouncing around the population, there’s going to come a point when The Gray Plague kicks in as a demonstrable fact. So, what might NOT have been “THE BIG ONE” may become it out of sheer criminal mismanagement on the part of the current criminally incompetent administration.

The WuFlop looks like this is about to happen.

The WuFlop
Another metric we may be left with, given that we’re not testing anyone, is the WuFlop. It may have to be a few recorded instances of The WuFlop for America to take what’s going on seriously. So, in essence, the longer we DON’T have recorded instances of The WuFlop, the worst things are going to get because, well, lulz! It’s all a hoax by the evil liberals who hate MAGA and just don’t like Trump as a person or his “policies.” Well, I fucking hate Trump’s policies. Now what. When first Drudge and TMZ then the broadcast nets show clip after clip after clip of the WuFlop in the United States, maybe you need to re-evaluate your hot take on this situation, you racist MAGA fascist piece of shit.

Anyway, the point is, the longer we don’t have any metrics, the worst things are going to be. It could become rather nightmarish. So, in a sense, you could say the best case scenario would be either a major celebrity or political figure gets sick form COVID19 this weekend or someone does the WuFlop about the same time. If it’s Friday and we still have no metrics of how big the infection is and we start testing, we may realize EVERYONE has been exposed and, really, there’s nothing we can do but just let it run its course.

Not that there won’t be a panic, but in the end, everyone will be so sick that there won’t be anything the medical profession can do but just watch people get sick and maybe die. But, you know, like I said, I can’t predict the future. So, it’s possible that while this is going to be “bad” it won’t be THE BIG ONE. If isn’t, I’ll be quite pleased. I have a novel I’m developing and I really want to start working on the first draft.

The Gray Plague – Code Name: Iceland #CoronaVirus #WuFlu #WuFlop #COVID19

Buckle Up.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner

I can’t predict the future. I don’t have any revealed truth. But it definitely seems as though at some point between now, and, say, Sunday afternoon a massive amount of history may take place.

I say this because all the datapoints point to a few bolts popping off American society as some event happens that will mark the official beginning of the War War WuFlu (3W). My best guess is it will be someone’s notable’s abrupt demise at the hands of COVID19 or maybe a recorded instance of the WuFlop. Either one of those events would be the historical record scratch that would lurch us into a new era.

Or, put another way, this weekend could be the beginning of a period of unprecedented instability in the United States. The Right is already chomping at the bit to kill liberals, it’s not too difficult to assume they would actually do it far sooner than you think.

But the issue is — key a close eye on Iceland. If Iceland buckles over the weekend, then that’s a pretty good indication that the United States will be brought to her knees in about two weeks. This is the point where I say — I’m not an expert. I’m not looking at this from a medical standpoint, I’m looking at it from simply what seems to make sense on the face of it. So, as such, I could be making some pretty big assumptions that are completely inaccurate.

And, yet, here goes — I feel if Iceland implodes, then the worst is coming for the United States. I say that because more Americans visit Iceland in a year than there are natives. So, well, you know. It would mean a lot of Americans are infected but don’t know it and are exposing the unsuspecting population of poor old Iceland along the way. You could also say the same thing about a number of other nations very closely associated economically with the US like Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean. I think Mexico is the most likely to go down next to Iceland.

Meanwhile, America would be rather oblivious because we’re not testing anyone and won’t do so on any mass level until the end of next week. That gives COVID19 a loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong time to bounce around our population of 335 million people. The endgame might be rather nightmarish in the short term when a massive number of Americans are too sick to do anything and if they’re over 65, well, they’re just dead. The Gray Plague will take a massive hit out of the elderly population at some point starting in about two weeks, probably. But it could be as early as THIS weekend when elderly celebrities — and, gulp, elderly powerful people — begin drop dead.

Ironically, I would say in the short term, more people would be saved if someone DID suffer the WuFlop in the States this weekend. At least, then, we would start taking the situation a lot more seriously. The WuFlop is pretty eerie and to see it is to realize this may be a very dark moment in not just American history, but humanity’s history.

We’ll bounce back, of course, but for a few days it would be something of a bumpy ride. It would be extremely dark and scary. I’m thinking if this horrific event happens, it would be at some point in, say the Ides of March timeframe, if not a little sooner. But it would be this weekend, Leap Day Weekend, when our fate would be sealed.

And, as such, that’s why we need to keep a close eye on Iceland’s fate.