Author: Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Despite what the person searching for that term above in the subject believes, the US is far from “open civil war” at the moment. But we are in danger of one in a few years. I have been writing for some time that America is open to a civil war at some point between now and Certification Day 2025. What the Dobbs decision does is give the already existing divisions within the United States a new, dangerous economic element.

Or, put another way, we are now, once more, a nation half free and half slave. In some states a woman has economic control over her body and in some states she doesn’t. Now, what complicates things is MAGA would tell you that the opposite is true — they’re the free states and Blues are the slave states. They would say that now because “every life is precious” a fertilized egg is “free” to be born and fuck you lib.

One thing I have to note is there’s a huge amount of slack in on the Right as to their expectations as to what happens next. Even though they’ve been demanding the overturning of Roe for 50 years, they clearly see it as nothing more than speed bump on their way to their final destination: a nationwide, complete ban on abortion in all 50 states. A number of Republican leaders have said this openly in the last few days since the Dobbs decision came out.

And that’s the crux of why it’s at least possible that instead of the United States slipping peacefully into autocracy around late 2024 – early 2025 we have a national divorce and, as such, a civil war. Blue States will simply refuse to have the MAGA knee on their necks for generations to come and they organize snap secession conventions. They might even do it en masse, in a coordinated effort to make it more difficult for the U.S. Military to do anything about it.

But all of that is very speculative. It could go a lot of different directions, some of them variations on a theme. It could be that the U.S. Military steps in and we have a military junta for a little while while we try a last-ditch effort to keep the country together. And, remember, all of this would happening in the context of the global order fall apart, too, so it’s possible we really could have something akin to a “Great Reset” — WW3.

All I say is — be grateful you have a few years to prepare. Get your affairs in order.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the theories about the decline and fall of the Roman Empire is that it was gripped by a sense of long term defeatism. Given what is going on the United States right now, I sometimes wonder if we’ve similarly just…given up. It’s like we collectively know that we’re probably going to slip into autocracy and we just don’t have it in us to do anything about it.

Because, make no mistake, the United States is fucked. We’re careening at an alarming rate towards a very, very dark future. And, for the moment at least, there is no apparent endgame, which, by definition, makes it a crisis. Are we going to slouch into autocracy or are we going to have a national divorce and start killing each other for political reasons?

I don’t know. Could go either way.

It’s all very sad. It’s sad that we are just too divided to do anything about our impending doom. There will be no Unity Ticket. Or reform. Or anything. We’re just letting macro trends follow their course and winging it.

Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m pretty good at both making an abstract concept concrete and running scenarios. What I’m bad at is persuasion. I can’t get anyone to open a door for me, much less heed any warnings I may have about the fate of the United States. And, generally, I’m always wrong. Always. I have a knack for taking a little bit of information and running with it to the point that I embarrass myself. Repeatedly.

But now that the Dobbs decision has been handed down, even I have to admit that maybe my hysterical dystopian predictions about the United States between now and 2024 – 2025….might be….right?

Now, some context. I have no idea if we’re going to have a civil war or turn into autocracy, but I do know that in 2024 – 2025 those will be our two options. There will absolutely be no middle ground. The country is either going to become an autocracy with all that entails — or we’re going to start murdering each other for political reasons.

In other words, something’s gotta give. We can’t keep this drift towards autocracy up without there either being a secession crisis or we just give up our democratic birthright.

But let’s go back to the issue at hand — will anyone notice if I’m right? I don’t think so. I’m just a random nobody in the middle of nowhere. I might — might — get noticed by a few Powers That Be types but it’s not like they’re going to allow me to sit with them at the cool table. I’m a nobody loser crank drunk and always will be, though, I guess, I do manage to follow in the foot steps of my literary hero Stieg Larsson (without the dying of a heart attack part) then…maybe someone will think I’m, at last, cool?

What is more likely to happen is the base case scenario is some Thinker for New York Magazine or The New York Times will crib ideas off me and then get all the credit without mentioning that little old me influenced their thinking.

Such is the fate of people like me who are too colorful and non-conformist for our own good. They tell you to be “just be yourself”….and then here I am. Alone and unloved. But I’m content. Or, even more importantly, should I be proven “right” I will have that to make me feel good while I’m in a Trump branded ICE camp.

Ugh.

I really don’t want a civil war. But that is the other option. If it happens, I guess I head north. Virginia is going to be very, very unstable and some form of infrastructure to accommodate domestic political refugees will be established to help re-locate people like me fleeing the MAGA New Right death squads.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Why, yes, anonymous Internet searcher, you came to the right Website. Here’s the theory of the case — macro trends are such that Something Big is going to happen to the United States in late 2024 – early 2025.

We have two options — autocracy or a “hot civil war.”

At the moment, I have no idea which one we will pick. But there definitely is a chance — and if Trump is the Republican 2024 nominee a really good one — that there will, in fact be a hot civil war in the United States sooner than you might think.

And, contrary to what the bonkers, rabid MAGA New Right people believe, it will be Blues who ultimately call for a “national divorce” and, as such, principate a Second American Civil War. As the Dobbs ruling shows, the MAGA New Right is ascendant and, as such, it would be a huge clusterfuck of a political force error on their part if they somehow were the ones to start a Second Civil War. They have no need to — they’re getting everything they want through politics and having a 6-3 majority on the SCOTUS.

At the moment, I don’t think we’re going to have a civil war — we’re just going to become a Turkey-Hungary-Russia style autocracy. The center-Left has no leadership and what leadership it has is too young or too ineffectual to have the guts to organize a National Divorce in the first place.

But we still have a few years. We can’t rule out that something I can’t predict might force the issue and cause Blue States to begin to leave the Union, probably starting with California.

Any such hot war would happen in such a way that it would leave all of us agape at what was happening. It would be like the historical equivalent of living through the sinking of the Titanic. Or, put another way — there would be no narrative or value to it until well after it was over and settled. While it was happening, it would be scary as shit.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, because there are so many known unknowns at the moment, I can’t even be sure that there will be a Second American Civil War. There is every reason to believe that the United States will simply give up on democracy, our birthright because Traditionalists are afraid the woke cancel culture mob is going turn everyone gay.

But, let’s say a civil war did break out, probably in late 2024 – early 2025 as part of a Certification Crisis caused by Steve K. Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” effectuating a “administrative coup.” There is a lower possibility that such a civil war might happen earlier if Trump becomes House Speaker and starts ranting on Truth Social that Red States should leave the Union if his multiple attempts to successfully impeach and convict Biden and Harris don’t work out. Let’s focus on the more likely possibility of it happening later.

If a Second American Civil War started, where, exactly, would it break out? Off the top of my head, it seems as though the first spark of a civil war would occur when it becomes clear that Republicans are going to brazenly steal the 2024 election and big Blue States like California grow restless to the point that they begin to have meetings with other Blue States about potentially seceding.

This would all be happening in late 2024 – early 2025 and it would be pell mell and chaotic. The few months between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 could be totally bonkers and chaotic to a point that no one has any control and everything moves so fast that we’re all overwhelmed. I suppose there is a possibility that there might even be some sort of Blue “Stop The Steal” Insurrection around Certification Day and that would precipitate Trump or DeSantis invoking the Insurrection Act and that would cause California to pull the trigger on secession.

One thing to remember is, Trump being the incoming POTUS by theft person at the center of all of this will greatly increase the possibility of a “national divorce” breaking out which would, in turn cause a civil war. A President-elect DeSantis would be way too smooth to cause a civil war — even if the Republican theft of the 2024 election is egregious and brazen.

Even though it is extremely difficult to game out this far out, probably the Second American Civil War would start in California when the U.S. Military decided to force the state to stay in the Union. This would be happening in the context of other Blue States breaking away as well. There’s an issue of what happens to the U.S. Military — does it implode or does it make a last gasp attempt to keep the nation together via some sort of coup then installment of military junta.

But let me be clear — barring a massive screw up on the part of Republicans, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war. They be riled up by the far Right about how they need to start murdering liberals for political reasons all they want, but, lulz, Republicans are ascendant. All Republicans have to do is be patient and they will turn the United States into an autocracy and that will be that — they will get everything they ever want and more.

It’s really wild, in fact, how many obvious MAGA people come to my dark hysterical ranting about the possibility of civil war thinking that they’re going to see how Reds are going to start one.

So, the answer to the question is — if a Second Civil War starts, it will probably be California. But it will happen in the broader context of the country imploding into political violence. States like Virginia and Texas will collapse into coup and counter coup.

But, again, I can’t game out what is going to happen. And, for the time being, I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I’m the red headed step child of my family on a political basis. Everyone else in my family is a bed rock conservative. I call them Traditionalists.

For centuries, American Traditionalists have been the bedrock of our democracy because they believed that we were a democracy. But, alarmingly, my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — no longer believe in democracy. They get all worked up making it clear to me that we’re a “constitutional republic,’ NOT a democracy.

In other words, American Traditionalists are pretty much waiting for A Very American Autocracy so they can become Good Germans. American politics right now is very, very, very fucked up.

Traditionalists, because of extreme negative polarization and an extensive permission structure are now, are waiting with baited breath to support the suffocation of American democracy because they’re deeply concerned with being canceled by the woke cancel culture mob. The Traditionalist I know are completely consumed by the cancer that is MAGA, even though they’re reluctant to support Trump himself. They want Trump without Trump, which would be, of course, fucking Ron DeSantis.

Now, what is all very abstract to my Traditionalist relatives is very concrete to me. They simply want to burn everything to the ground to avoid the risk of an off color remark being recorded and then going viral so their life is ruined. They’re also very concerned about how the woke canceled culture mob is trying to turn third graders gay by “grooming” them. This is, like, at the very forefront of their mind, the thing they jump to the moment politics is brought up.

And, what’s even more alarming is there just is no middle ground anymore. Either your Red or your Blue. This is not the recipe for a very stable government. As such, the United States is careening towards a dramatic historic event of some sort in the coming years, probably in late 2024 – early 2025.

We’re past the event horizon. Because of macro trends we’re either going to implode into autocracy or explode into civil war. And, honestly, I still don’t know which direction we’re going to go.

Regardless of which existential choice we make, all of our lives will be greatly affected.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With the Dobbs decision, the United States is once again a nation half free and half slave. Women in free states have bodily autonomy, and those in slave states, do not. But it gets worse — both sides accuse the other of being the slave state. From the point of view of Red States, THEY’RE the free states because now “every life is precious” and an egg is free to be born in absolute terms, damn the consequences to the adults involved.

How do you fix that particular problem?

But the core issue remains — with the Dobbs decision, a pretty big bolt has popped off of America. The process of division that began decades ago has lurched forward yet again. The Dobbs decision is one of those rare times in America’s process of dis-Union where the lives of the average person is being demonstrably changed.

Usually, this process of division is far more abstract. We all know that Blues and Reds are beginning to have a fundamental difference in what it means to be an American, but it’s rare that its demonstrated in concrete form.

What makes the Dobbs decision so alarming is it gives an economic element to the differences between Reds and Blues. Previously, our differences were just a matter of self-perception, with Reds thinking Blues are all “groomers” who want to use their woke cancel culture mob powers to “cancel” anyone who doesn’t want third graders to be gay.

As such, the case could definitely be made that Dobbs is a ping from a very dark future. That it is a sort of modern day Dred Scott decision, the thing we’ll all look back upon and say, “Well, obviously there was going to be a National Divorce and, as such, a Second American Civil War.”

But everything is still very much up the air. I just can’t game out if we’re going to have a civil war or if we’re just going to follow Turkey, Hungary and Russia into autocracy. There are just too many known unknowns.

All of the macro trends definitely point to a Fourth Turning or Great Reset around January 2025. But how that Big Historical Event expresses itself is huge mystery. At the moment, I think Blues simply do not have the leadership — or balls — to leave the Union. They’re so wrapped up in how many genders can dance on the head of a pin or which pronoun to use — or too busy getting securing their new home in the south of France — that we’re probably just goig to slip peacefully into autocracy without a struggle.

Not that particularly want a “struggle.” I don’t want any violence, but if there was a National Divorce with Blue States leaving the Union, states like Virginia and Texas would implode into vicious, bloody violence.

Anyway. We have a few years to figure out what we’re going to do on a personal basis. I have a vested interest in there not being a civil war — I have six novels I’m working on that I’d like to have the opportunity to publish in a peaceful — if even autocratic — America.