I don’t know why this is so difficult for me to game out, but here goes.
If Trump had gone to the Capitol to press his case on January 6th, 2021, what we look back upon as kind of a .5 of a 9/11 would have jumped up the tragedy scale to a full-blown 9/11-sized event. The idea that a president, even a president as crazy as Trump, would go to the Capitol at the forefront of a crazed mob wanting to stage a coup would been a Day The Earth Stood Still type of historical event.
The imagery alone of the event would be embedded into our collective consciousness just as much as the JFK assassination or 9/11.
Here is where things get even more sketch — would Trump’s second impeachment have gone any differently?
I have my doubts. Trump is such an avatar for some pretty astonishing problems in our political system that he’s kind of an immutable historical force. I doubt even him literally be the head of the spear of a crazed mob trying to intimidate Mike Pence into not doing his job would have been enough to cause Senate Republicans to convict him.
In fact, it’s very possible that Trump would be seen as some sort of uber-patriot in the eyes of MAGA for doing such a crazed thing. No one is going to save us from Trump.
I really struggle to imagine what would have happened had Trump force the Secret Service to take him to the Capitol on January 6th like he wanted them to. I don’t think he would have been any more success with Pence certifying the vote, but I do think the January 6th clusterfuck would have been a quantum leap worse.
The more I think about it, the more I think we came very, very close to going to the show with January 6th. If Pence had done as Trump wanted him to do — not certify the vote — there is a pretty good chance that there would have been the revolution then civil war that I have been predicting for much of the last three years.
All the conditions were there for the United States to buckle had Pence not found the guts to simply do a very ceremonial job. The country would have probably had a something akin to a Glorious Blue Revolution the moment Pence balked at certifying the vote. Too many people weren’t paying attention to what was going on with Trump and Certification at the crisis was taking place.
So, if Pence had successfully allow Trump to stage a coup….Jesus Christ would things have gotten hot really quick in the United States.
I’m just grateful that they didn’t. We still have time to save ourselves, not that we will.
Given how dire some of my personal predictions about the next 18 months are, it’s very possible that Mike Pence may have single-handedly given the Republic four years to — somehow — save itself.
And what have we done with that time?
Jack shit.
Rather than using the fours years that Pence afford us by lighting his political career on fire, we’ve just mentally masturbated over the “who shot John” elements of Trumplandia, not really addressing the central issue: Donald Trump.
So here we are, potentially about to either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or have a civil war / revolution. I say this because it seems clear that America was the cusp of a civil war / revolution on January 6th, 2021. It is simply amazing that the the insurrectionists we sooooooo dumb and disorganized that they didn’t try the Paris Commune endgame and simply squatted in the Capitol building until there demands were met.
I fear this will not be the case next time, should such an occasion arise.
I almost went to D.C on January 6th to cover certification, but it was too cold and I knew that I would head home well before dark, anyway. I’m so broke it’s just not practical for me to go to D.C. unless the financial conditions in my personal life are juuuuuust right.
So, even if I had gone up there that day, I seriously doubt I would have been around when the crowd attacked the Capitol. It’s possible, but not probable. And I would have only done it because of the heat of the moment and my natural journalistic instinct to go where the story takes me.
Anyway, the thing about Mike Pence is he is such a fucking Trump toady that he simply did not have the courage to go the same route as Liz Chaney. He could have totally revamped his career had he become a virulent #NeverTrumper. But it’s too late now, lulz.
I just don’t know what to expect in 2024 and 2025. It could be that Trump is just a quirk of history and will fade into oblivion, or it could be that the man single handedly destroys not just democracy in the United States, but manages to cause the collapse of the post-WW2 global liberal order.
When the history of this era of American history is written, the fate of one Mike Pence will be worth a few books. Given how “the Resistance” has accepted Liz Chaney with open arms, if Pence had a Road-to-Damascus moment and actually stood for some of the values he professes to believe and started hating on Trump, his life would be A LOT better.
I can’t promise you he’d ever be POTUS, but Pence’s political influence would increase dramatically if he became a Liz Chaney-like figure. If became something akin to a modern-day War Democrat, Pence would be on CNN and MSNBC a great deal. Hell, he might even get a show on one of those channels.
But, no. Pence is such a weak-willed weasel that he can not, will not do something so dramatic. It’s all sort of sad. The next speed bump that Pence is going to have to go over is what he’s going to do in late 2024, early 2025 should the country completely collapse.
Even if the country doesn’t collapse, given how Pence refused to do the one thing that might have kept Trump in office, you have to wonder if Trump goes full-tyrant on the American people that Pence might, at last, have his nuts descend and find his manhood.
I have my doubts, however. It definitively seems as though Pence has decided to simply fade away into political oblivion.
There are rumors that Mike Pence is seriously considering talking to the January 6th Committee. Before we all get too Mueller, She Wrote level of excited about this, we need to put some context to what we might be able to expect from such a historic event.
The thing that Pence SHOULD do, which is the John Dean of the MAGA movement, is just not going to happen. I say he should do this because the only way that man is ever going to be POTUS is as part of a Unity Ticket of some sort. He doesn’t have to become Democrat, he just has to become a MAGA apostate to the point that he inflicts serious political damage to the movement.
Or, put another way, Pence would have to “change the question” when it came to what he was supposed to do. Instead of the question in his mind being, “How do I become president?” the question needs to be, “How do I change the political equation I face so dramatically that being president is even a possibility?”
Because, as it stands — Pence is never going to be a MAGA Republican President. I seem to recall MAGA wanted to hang him, at some point in the immediate past. So, if Pence really wants to be POTUS at this point, he has to burn everything to the ground. He has to flip the circuit breaker do a hard reboot of the American political system.
In the carnage that results from him destroying the Republican Party, he could very well end up on top. Liberals would be so grateful for what Pence had done that they would vote for him at least for one presidential cycle, even if they hate everything else about his politics. This is not hard. The easiest endgame for Pence is also the most painful — but it would work.
At the moment, I just don’t think Pence has it in him. He would pray about it a lot and God would tell him to give the January 6th Committee just enough information that he could still feel as though he might have a chance to be a MAGA POTUS.
Because, just from my casual conversations with my Traditionalist relatives, they hate Democrats and liberal-progressive with such a white hot rage that they can’t even imagine a situation where someone like Pence would do country over party and for the specific purpose of saving the Republic, align himself with people he didn’t agree with politically. They’re so busy thinking of the center-Left as Satanic groomers that they’re completely blinded to even considering the idea of saving America’s democratic birthright.
So, at the moment, I have very low expectations for Pence should he testify.
I read the huge Truman biography some time ago, and there’s passage where he recounts how at some point around the Korea War how Truman met Gen. MacArthur in the middle of the Pacific. Apparently, after Truman fired the general for wanting to nuke China, he mused that had they died around the time of that meeting each of their legacies would have been far, far different.
Another relevant anecdote is the very well known one about how Steve Jobs seduced John Sculley to leave Pepsi to join Apple. He said something along the lines of, “Do you want to continue to sell sugar water the rest of your life or do you want to change the world?”
So, with that in mind, let me ask Mike Pence a question, “Do you want to be joke or do you want to be a Great Man?” You can change your legacy from the guy with the fly on your head who almost got hanged by your own supporters to the Great American who saved 250 years of American democracy not once, but twice.
Pence is very conspicuous about being a man of God. I was raised in the church and I’m well aware of how important prayer is to people like him. As such, I would suggest to Pence that he take a long, long walk with the Good Lort to get some advice as to his next move.
Here’s where things stand with Pence at the moment. After doing the barest minimum necessary to keep American democracy alive, Pence is well on his way to being fading into political oblivion. Pence, as it stands, will be a joke to the center-Left and a traitor to the MAGA New Right.
And this is where the power of prayer comes in.
I totally disagree with 99% of what he believes politically — but I agree with his faith in American democracy. So much so, that it is very, very obvious that if Pence continues to have any hope of being POTUS one day, he has to change the question.
The question is no longer, “How do I win the Republican nomination?” but, rather, “Am I willing to risk switching parties to be part of a 2024 unity ticket?” The cold hard fact is — Mike Pence is never going to be POTUS if he remains a Republican. By saving American democracy, he has destroyed his political career as a Republican. To be a Republican now, by definition, means to be an autocratic fascist.
So, Pence has a very, very stark choice — drift into political oblivion and or have a greater-than-zero-sum chance at having a bust of him placed in the Capitol Rotunda at some point in the not-so-distant future.
All Pence has to do is do a lot of praying and testify on live TV, under oath before the January 6th Committee and explain what he saw from Election Day 2020 to Certification Day 2021. It might help if he told the public, on a personal level, what it felt like to have his own supporters scream “Hang Mike Pence.”
He would instantly become the Democratic front runner for 2024. The public’s perception of him would change instantly. And, what’s more, he would not have to change a single policy belief. All he would have to do is define himself as defender of American Democracy and be willing to run as part of a Unity Ticket with, maybe AOC as his veep.
Throw in some sort of pre-election power sharing agreement and the rest takes care of himself. Both sides of a very, very politically divided America would be EXTREMLY ANGRY at this arrangement, but for the 100,000 or so people across five swing states who decide American elections, such an arrangement would be catnip.
Independent swing voters — who really decide elections at this point — would love the idea that “both sides” were being represented under such an agremeemt.
Now, there are obvious risks.
One is, that this would be simply not be something that the American political system could process and Pence WOULDN’T be seen as the Democratic front runner as part of some sort of Unity Ticket. Biden is old, but he’s not dead. And he remains very popular within Democratic ranks.
But in 2024, America faces the existential choice of a MAGA Republican themed autocracy or a civil war. And, while Liz Cheney could also serve the purpose of Pence on a Unity Ticket, Pence is the big kahuna. He really could do something amazing and instantly change his legacy — simply by telling the truth.
I do not honestly believe any of this is going to happen. I mean, lulz. But it’s just so frustrating that a solution to the existential problem that faces America is right in front of Mike Pence and yet, even with a walk with the good Lort, he won’t do it.
If Liz Cheney is any indication, Mike Pence could dramatically change his political fortunes if he dropped a H-Bomb on Washington and agreed to testify before the January 6th Committee at some point before its televised hearings wrapped up.
Just do it, Mike.
As I’ve said before, in one simple act, Mike Pence would go from political has been to the potential Democratic 2024 front runner. It would be a jaw dropping, astonishing event in modern American political history. It could also single handedly save American democracy — or at least give a little bit more breathing room.
But why? Why should he do it?
The chief reason is the Trump anti-democratic infection has gone septic — the very thing that destroyed Pence’s MAGA career is now the only thing that could save his political career. He just has to pull a John Dean and testify live and under oath as to what he saw in the lead up to January 6th.
That one simple act would make the Liberal Elites swoon. He would be a Great Man on historical terms because he could be the one person who could manage to save democracy in 2024 because he would be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and yet a Democrat. (He would have to, of course, pick someone like AOC as his veep and agree to some sort of extensive power sharing agreement, but, still.)
Of course, there is a huge amount of risk involved. It could be that what I propose wouldn’t be enough to redeem Pence in the eyes of the very woke Democratic Party base. That’s a very real possibility.
But two things. One, I hate all of Liz Cheney’s political beliefs, but damn if I wouldn’t vote for her for POTUS given the chance. I’m so desperate for principled leadership from someone who believes in democracy that I’m willing to hold my nose if it means defeating MAGA in 2024. The same applies to Mike Pence — if he testified for a few hours (days?) before the January 6th Committee and explained exactly what he knew of the conspiracy, then, yes, I would probably vote for him if he was the head of a Unity Ticket with AOC as veep.
The other issue is the historical significance of Pence doing such a thing. If he marketed himself as a defender of small-d democracy — if that was the cornerstone of why he was running for POTUS In the first place — we’re talking Great Man territory for Pence.
And, I think Pence needs to reflect on the fact that the faction of MAGA that wanted to hang him on January 6th is now the dominate faction. Within MAGA ranks, he’s growing more and more irrelevant. And the only way for him to avoid simply fading into political oblivion is to do a Hail Mary Pass and to go full John Dean on Trump and MAGA.
But no one listens to me. Oh well. I guess we need to go back to thinking about what we’re going to do in 2024 – 2025 when we either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy.
Mike Pence finds himself in a unique historical position. He can remain a Trump toady and fade into political oblivion and become a political footnote in the context of the rise of A Very American Autocracy — or he can become MAGA’s John Dean and change history.
It’s up to you, Mike.
This is an example of how the fate of a nation can hinge on the quirks and personal foibles of one — one! — person. The Great River of History is rushing the United States towards either great change (autocracy) or destruction (civil war) and Mike Pence on a personal basis has the means, motive and opportunity to change that flow.
Mike Pence is playing the part of Dr. Manhattan by simply doing nothing even though he could potentially buy American democracy time if he just became a MAGA Republican apostate. Maybe, with extra time we could figure out some way to solve the existential problems that face the nation so we don’t start murdering each other in cold blood for political reasons.
It’s all very, very frustrating. Pence has the means, motive and opportunity to be a Great Man….and he is too much of a toady. Even after his boss said he was cool with him being hanged! If that isn’t an indication that this is The Before Times of American politics, then I don’t know what is.
When people are more devoted to a demonstrably deranged idiot because he’s an avatar for the rage of white American rather than do what is right for American democracy, then, lulz, what the fuck?
In the book, “How Democracies Die,” they propose a solution to prevent a democracy from dying outright — the other, non-autocratic parties have to bond together for the sake of the nation.
Now, this solution is extremely problematic for America. The country is too big, unfocused and divided for any sort of “unite for the sake of the nation” plan to work.
And, yet, there is one person who could make such a plan a lot closer to being real — Mike Pence.
All he has to do is one fucking thing and he is SOOOO CLOSE to be the Democratic Union (or whatever) Party nominee in 2024: become a MAGA apostate (a John Dean-type character). He doesn’t have to change any other policy view other than turning on Trump and MAGA.
Pence would never do this, of course, because he’s a fucking coward, but if he did, he would suddenly be throw into the rarified ranks of Great American Men because, he could, single handedly give American democracy some breathing room if he teamed up with, say, AOC.
But he’s never going to do it. He somehow thinks he can play it safe and may a charge at MAGA King Trump and somehow succeed (fun fact: no.) So, Pence really faces sinking into political oblivion with both sides hating him equally for different reasons.
Or, he could get woke get pretty damn close to becoming the next POTUS. Of course, if he did run with AOC, there would have to be some sort of power sharing agreement. The whole thing would make America’s government seem rather schizophrenic, but at least it would probably avoid a civil war and probably keep the country a functioning democracy for one or more additional election cycles.
The brass ring is right there for Mike Pence and he’s such a fucking coward that he won’t grab it. All he has to do is become a #NeverTrumper and he instantly becomes a darling of the center-Left to the point that there will be talk of him heading some sort of “Unity Ticket” in 2024.
Or not. Don’t listen to me. I’m just some doofus in the rural part of a flyover state.
But the case could be made that if Pence did some domestic realpolitik assessments in his mind that it would be clear that the only way he will ever and I mean EVER become politically relevant again is to become a #Never Trumper. And as Liz Cheney has shown, you don’t even have to change your otherwise antediluvian conservative views.
He would get a pass from the center-Left for all his other brutish conservative views simply because he turned his back on Trump and MAGA. He already has the means, motive and opportunity to do it and…yet he won’t do it. He is beginning to kind of do things on the edges, but in general he’s still towing the MAGA line.
I will note, however, that if there is some sort of Second American Civil War that Pence definitely might change his mind on being MAGA. In fact, I would go so far as to say him jumping ship to Blue State leadership would be a sign that we’re about to have a second American civil war.
Yet, of course, I still am reluctant to believe we’re going to have a civil war in the first place, even though it’s a definite possibility. Blue States just don’t have it in them to leave the Union, especially given their lack in leadership — unless, of course, someone like Mike Pence becomes over to their side.
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