Month: June 2020

Trump Endgame Enigma: ‘Jhi-na Syndrome’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love scenarios. I love weighing different factors, asking “what if” and wondering how a number of conditions would work. Usually my scenarios are the absolute worst-case.

So, let’s play the “What if Trump finally lost his mind” scenario.

Here’s the thing: first, how would we know?

Trump is so conspicuous in his instability, that for him to have finally have cracked, something REALLY Big would have have to happen. I am still of the opinion that Trump is more likely to implode than explode and we’ll simply not see him very much in his inevitable ill-gotten second term. He’ll be catatonic somewhere, babbling about the Deep State.

But, let’s say between now and, say, mid-August, a series of things push Trump over the edge. A combination of a pandemic, a depression, BountyGate and maybe even his taxes being released, becomes such a weigh on his mind that he snaps. I think such a decompensation would come a logic trap — he would absolutely want to win and yet he would absolute know he wasn’t going to win. (Though he might never get that bad since it’s obvious the Russians are going to hack into our election systems in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our fighting force out of Germany before September.)

Anyway, let’s just say Trump snaps.

I think a number of things would happen at the same time. A lot of things that have been rolling around his mind would pop out. He might whip is cock out. He might tweet out a dick pic. He might began to tweet out out the N-word to any African American who crosses him. He might simple begin to babble vulgarities at every opportunity. Or even stranger things might happen, like he dives head first into Tik-Tok and starts attempting some of the dances there. Or maybe he really, REALLY makes it clear he wants certain people “reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” He keeps doing this now and no one takes him seriously. What if he won’t shut up about it in a rather manic fashion for days or weeks on end?

The next issue is what the reaction would be.

Given how close we are to the election, initially, not a lot would happen different. Republicans would simply ignore the behavior, hoping it will go away. It would take a few days of some seriously disturbing behavior before the pressure would begin to build for something, anything to happen.

This is where things get murky. I can’t figure out how we would ever get rid of Trump, even if he was, say, going out of his way to start a war with the DPRK in a desperate bid to “Wag the Dog.” I might go so far as to say this crisis might go on and on and on and on for months until the election rolls around and, surprise! Trump weirdly wins anyway.

Then we spend three months on edge we try to figure out how we’re going to get Electors to vote for Joe Biden because it’s absolutely clear that because of a quid pro quo with Russia, Trump has illegally won re-election because of hacking on the part of Putin.

I guess the point is — I don’t know how we would ever actually get rid of Trump, even if he fucking totally lost his fucking mind and put the lives of 300 million Americans at risk. We’re stuck with him, no matter what.

Something Big *May* Be On The Way With Trump (Between Now & August)



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now is the summer of our discontent.

I have no inside information. I’m not a member of the “IC.” All I got is my gut. And my gut tells me someone, somewhere, knows something big about the mental state of Trump and they’re worried.

The key thing you have to remember is Trump simply has to get into his second term. That’s it. That’s all he has to do — get sworn in for a second term. After that point, he could go completely insane and his dream of an authoritarian white ethno-state will be come a reality. I say this because I believe his second term VP is going to be someone like Tom Cotton or Mike Flynn (Or Steve King). Someone who will be both impeachment insurance AND someone younger and more organized who can knock heads in an organized way.

So, Trump, in a sense, is at his weakest right now. (As is the nation as a whole because democracies are so messy just before the election actually takes place.)

I say between August and now because August (as Slate will tell you every year in your Facebook newsfeed) the worst month of the year. So, it would make sense if Trump finally snaps in a completely fucking insane manner, it would be about mid-August.

If he can make it past August, I think he’s fine. His dreams of destroying America will, finally, come true.

Let’s see what the fates have to say about all of this.

An Observation On Trump Scandals



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump has an absolute floor of support of about 35% of the electorate. He’s not quite down to it, yet, but he seems to be working his way towards it. That core support of people barely pay any attention to traditional news sources and, in fact, get most of their news directly from Trump’s twitter feed. They’re a bunch of racist, ignorant morons who are willfully destroying the country by supporting Trump through thick and thin.

This leaves people like me extremely frustrated because Trump is pretty obviously a Russian stooge at best and a Russian agent at worst. He has no traditional political accountability and as long as he has that core 35%, never will.

I will note, however, that occasionally he gets himself into trouble that lingers. He eventually peters out like all his scandals, but sometimes he screws up in such a massive way that while he still has that 35% of racist, authoritarian loving assholes, at least those people are made to sweat for a little while.

This issue with “BountyGate” is a prime example of what I’m talking about. While I know that barring Trump, himself, self-owning even more that it will eventually get lost in lead up to the 2020 Election, I find myself thinking about it all the time these days. I’m REALLY MAD about this thing and I can’t stop thinking about how bad either option is for Trump.

Either he’s criminally incompetent and his job or he’s a traitor. He’s going to go with criminally incompetent and weasel his way out of yet another jam, then get the Russians to steal the election for him (or he’s going to steal it himself by going after Electors) and he’ll be impeached AGAIN at some point in his second term, probably either 1 1/2 or 3 1/2 years into his second term. (I’m thinking it’s most likely to happen the same year as an election for various reasons.)

By that point, of course, Ivanka Trump, Tom Cotton or Mike Flynn will be his second term VP and we’ll be nothing more than Russian style “managed democracy.” (Ivanka would be used as a figure head for her veep Tom Cotton or Mike Flynn should she become president. It’s rat fucking like that that authoritarians love, love, love to do.)

Again, let me be clear — the fate of the Republic hinges not on Biden, or Pelosi, or voters. It hinges on the mental state of one Donald J. Trump. If he fucking loses his mind in The Night Of Camp David style meltdown between now and,say, August, then there’s a chance that we’ll at least punt the end of the Republic down the road one more election cycle.

Otherwise, lulz!

How The Trump Era Might End Rather Dramatically On A Political Level



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is never going to leave office. And, really, there’s only one scenario whereby that ever happens for any reason — Trump finally goes completely batshit insane.

But how might that play out?

Well, the key thing to look at is his poll numbers. If there was, say, a 1-2-3 punch of a pandemic, treason AND his taxes finally coming out because of a SCOTUS decision, then, well, the stress of that combined with his approval rating going down into the 20s might be enough to make him snap.

Remember, the point is unless Trump, himself, causes his downfall, he’s never leaving office. With Russian help, he’s going to steal the 2020 election in a rather brazen fashion, cruise into his second term, call for a Constitutional Convention and simply be an American Brezhnev for the next decade. I believe that’s our fate as of right now. Like, 200%.

So, really, like I said, the only way Trump DOESN’T stay in office for the next 10 years or so is, well, Trump. And he would have to do it in a rather dramatic fashion. He would have to explode, not implode, mentally. He would have to become so absolutely deranged that it was a minute-by-minute crisis.

But there’s an added complication — the 25 Amendment is a dead letter, so even if that happened, well, nothing wold happen until the election and, well, lulz, he’s going to steal that anyway, so we’d have a completely insane, deranged president until sometime in 2021 or so. By that point, of course, he will have picked his new second term veep of Tom Cotton or Zombie Hitler or whomever.

And, remember, keep this part at the forefront of your mind: at some point Trump’s political criminality and his insanity may fuse into the same thing. So he will bribe Electors. Or attack them personally on Twitter. Or demand MAGA threaten the families of any Electors who refuse to vote for him, damn the popular vote.

There’s simply no political will to do anything about this as it happens. Lulz!

But I would, however, suggest you keep any eye on his polling. Not until he’s in the 20s will there be any semblance of accountability and even then it will be far, far, far FAR too late to actually help anything.

You Can’t Edit A Blank Page #AmWriting



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m finally “just writing” again. It’s taken a long time, but here I am. It’s kind of a lot of fun having to plot out each scene after all this development then watching everything collapse again and again on a scene level. But much of the macro-level stuff is settled now.

The issue is really simply figuring out how to convey the information I want to convey within each scene. It’s a lot of work, but also a lot of fun. But I really, really have to just not over think things at this point. The point is to simply get the story down.

There’s a reason why they say don’t let people read your first draft — it’s going to suck, no matter what. I was all excited about the first scene then I realized how much is really, really sucked. But I’m not going to spin my wheels, trying to make it perfect.

I’ve done enough wheel spinning already.

Time to write.

You can’t edit a blank page.

None Dare Call It Treason #Trump



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue right now is if things really are as bad as we fear when it comes to TrumpBountyGate, what are we going to do about it? There really isn’t much that can be done as best I can tell. We can’t impeach Trump again until well into his second term. He’ll never resign. He’s going to steal the election with Russian help.

So, I don’t know.

This goes back to something that is central to the Trump Era — Trump is his own worst enemy. So, really, if we have him dead to rights on this issue, the thing that causes some serious accountability to come to him for once won’t be anything but himself. He may finally flip the fuck out.

I don’t even know how that might manifest itself. I think maybe he might finally snap in a really crazy way whereby he starts to tweet out the N-Word to Obama. Or maybe he joins Tik-Tok and starts to do dances there. Things that are simply so outside the bounds of normal behavior that someone, somewhere, finally sits up and takes notice.

But I’ve been let down by Congress so many times that I honestly don’t think anything of note is going to happen. After a few days of teeth gnashing, things will gradually go back to a Trump Era level of normality.

I would keep an eye on SCOTUS and Trump’s taxes. If Trump faces not only a pandemic and accusations of treason but his taxes being forced to be released as well, then, we may, at last, be going to the show.

The Mueller Report, Trump’s Taxes & (The Potential End of) The Trump Administration



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I often wonder what would be the real consequences if we found out Castro and the Mob were directly responsible for JFK’s death. All the principals would be dead. It might be give closure, but in real terms, it would be a big meh.

The reason I think about this a lot these days is not only the possibility that much of the Mueller Report might be unredacted by a Federal judge, but the small possibility that we might, at last, see Trump’s taxes. We’re so close to the election and Trump is obviously simply going to ratfuck his way into a second term, I honestly don’t see anything of note happening if we learn the absolute worst about Trump.

I mean, if we have absolute proof that Putin has near-absolute financial control over Trump Org…would it even matter at this point? Probably not. Trump is going to have a second term, no matter what and, in real terms, Trump faces one real threat and one real threat only: himself.

The only way I see anything of significance happening to the Trump Administration going forward is if Trump finally loses his fucking mind to the point that he, say, starts a war with the DPRK or something else of similar significance.

We probably would have a few days of uncertainty if Trump’s taxes came out, but in the end, we’re just too close to the election and Trump will never resign so, lulz.

Darkness has fallen.

Mission:Impossible — Fallout, My #Novel & Stieg Larsson’s Millennium Series



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As a way of training my mind not to be so silly while writing this novel, I’ve started to listen to soundtracks to “serious” movies. I listen to The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo OST and Gone Girl’s OST. But the soundtrack I listen to that makes me nod my head and say, “That’s what I want” is the one to Mission: Impossible — Fallout.

That’s what I want from this novel. While I love, love, love the Millennium series, they’re also slow as hell at times (the first book) or confusing as hell (the third book.) I really like how accessible and fast paced the Mission:Impossible movie obviously is from its soundtrack.

I have a number of scenes — especially in the second book — that are sit up in your seat exciting. Just thinking about being able to write them is enough to get me through the first book. The planned second book as two scenes that will knock your socks off if they ever were filmed.

Now, of course, that’s a ways down the road. But it’s what keeps me going. It’s what keeps my mind focused. I really need to stay focused. I need to keep my head down and read, read, read then write, write, write.

No one believes in me. This is all on me. This novel’s strengths will be mine, as will its weaknesses.

Let’s rock.

Idle Mulling of Phoebe Waller-Bridge & The Female Romantic Lead of The #Novel I’m Developing #AmWriting



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really hate it when people like me talk about who they imagine would play this or that character in their “WIP.” Ugh. It’s just so preening and cloy and fucking annoying.

Pretty much what I imagine my novel’s female romantic lead looking like.

And, yet, here I am, doing that thing I, myself, hate when other people do it.

My only excuse is I’m a drinking and writing and absolutely no one reads this blog (in real terms) so, lulz. The only reason why I keep coming back to this notion that Phoebe Waller-Bridge would be great to play the female romantic lead of this novel is who the character is inspired by — Alexa Chung.

Ms. Waller-Bridge’s phenotype would be perfect to make my vision for the character a reality. She’s also British, which is something I imagine for the character to be. Or, put another way, she’s got a British accent, even if the exact nature of that Commonwealth accent is never fully explained (or at least understood) by everyone else in the novel. In all honesty, the character isn’t even really inspired that much on Alexa Chung as she is by a South African woman I dated briefly in Seoul who had some very endearing verbal ticks. And, yet, the more serious I become with this novel, the less, in real terms, I care about even worrying about Hollywood or any type of adaptation. The point is write the best damn novel (one story, two novels) I can and worry about everything else later.

It’s just so unlikely that I will ever actually sell this novel, all of that seems not only a lot of useless preening, but also a waste of time. But, like I said, I see this blog as more me talking to myself than anything else.

So, lulz.

A Major Milestone With Development #Novel #AmWriting



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, I’ve finally gotten further with this novel’s development than I’ve ever gotten in two years. I have a development booklet for “Part I” of the novel done and now plan to sit down in the next 24 hours or so and “just write.”

I still haven’t finished the entire outline yet (which would be turned into a complete scene summary) but, lulz, what am I going to do about it. I am hoping that simply by writing a Part I that is really good, that, in itself, will be enough to get me through some pretty uncertain parts of the novel going forward.

There’s a whole FBI portion of the novel I have no idea how to proceed with. I have several books I’m reading and an FBI PR person I talk to, but I’m worried that having to throw a lot of attention into that part of the story is going to slow me down.

Now, the thing you have to remember is, the energy to develop and write this novel comes from my white hot rage against the Trump Administration. Now that impeachment has failed, my rage against the Trump Administration is hotter than the center of the sun (on a good day.) Since I’m a man of peace and a man of ideas, I feel I have no other recourse than to write a novel that is DL a fucking H-Bomb of an indictment against the Trump Era.

So, whenever Trump does something that enrages me, I use the emotional energy generated by that to read another book, or do some more development before I got to bed.

The key point is that this novel be a fast, easy read. Very breezy. Something not preachy, something you read so fast you are late to work because you didn’t get much sleep reading it. That’s the way I felt reading Stieg Larsson’s stuff and that’s the way I want people to feel with this novel. I want my rage against the Trump Administration to be so diffused that even conservatives can read this novel and not feel like I’m attacking them. (MAGA conservatives, however, might have something of a problem with this novel, given some of the plot points.)

Anyway, all systems are go to “just write” very, very soon.