Did Trump Really Get The Rona?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate conspiracy theories. I generally think they’re the last refuge of the intellectually dishonest. And, yet, when it comes to Trump’s case of COVID19 I’m beginning to be willing to entertain the idea that it was a hoax of some sort.

Let’s go through why.

How We Found Out
For a White House that is known for its raibid paranoia, we sure did find out about Trump having COVID19 in a rather casual way. A journalist from Bloomburg asked a question and they found out. (I think they found out about Hope Hicks having it, which led to Trump.) That is very curious. Why let such earth-shattering information just slip out without usual teeth-pulling, lies, stonewalling and general rat fucking. Just letting us find out without it being a state secret — especially with this White House — is very odd

Claudia Conway
It makes us feel all warm inside to think that 15-year-old Claudia Conway gave us the truth in a Tik-Tok video. And, relative to what she believed, I have no reason to doubt that she was telling us the truth. And, yet, it sure would make a lot more sense that instead of her mom “accidently” letting her daughter hear that Trump was near-death (or whatever) what if it was “accidently on purpose?” That sure does make a lot more sense than what we thought at the time.

Trump Is Fine Now
COVID19 usually takes weeks to recover from, not a few days. And given the side-effects of all the different drugs he was allegedly put on, you’d think he would be acting even more surreal and bonkers than he usually does. And, yet, it was pretty much just an exaggerated version of his usual fucktardness. It would make a lot more sense if he was out of commission for at least two weeks.

Now, let’s go through why this conspiracy doesn’t make any sense

The Superspreader Event Was Real
How it could be that Trump would fake a COVID19 infection after what was an actual, real superspreader event at the White House make no sense. So, that leads me to believe he really got it. Even though he was on steroids and experimental therapeutics that should have left him out of it for some time, he was able to pull through in a surprisingly short amount of time.

Trump’s White House Can’t Shoot Straight
Trump runs the White House like the Trump Org and, as such, it’s a complete shitshow. It’s so totally disorganized and leaky, that for them to successfully fake Trump getting COVID19 would require an amount of discipline that they, to date, have not shown.

So, I don’t know. I guess the only reason why I’m willing to entertain this idea at all is how much Trump lies and how much he got to “own the libs” by making them feel bad about him being sick.

Potential Upcoming ‘October Surprises’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. The Full Mueller Report Is Released
    Because of a deranged tweet on the part of Trump, it’s possible that an emergency FOIA request by BuzzFeed might actually get us the entire Mueller Report right before the election. Or not. Given that we’re now an autocratic managed democracy, Barr could simply shrug and say either “fuck you” or “wait until after the election.”
  2. Trump’s Taxes A Leaked
    Even though the NYT apparently has gotten Trump’s taxes, it’s possible that at least on a criminal level, the authorities might actually get them as well. It would happen mid-October or so. They might leak in their entirety and they might show Trump is doing his foreign policy directly because of his finances.
  3. A Durham Investigation “Preliminary Summary”
    Even though we’ve been told “not to expect any indictments before the election” when it comes to the Durham Investigation, that doesn’t mean Barr won’t pop out and lay out what he thinks the investigation will show at some point after the election. Given how absolutely deranged Trump is about indicting someone, anyone he doesn’t like, this could be a way for Barr to square the circle on that one
  4. Trump Finally Snaps
    Given that Trump constantly acts as though he has already snapped, how we would know the difference, I don’t know. But I guess it would be a matter of degree. Trump would do something so insane that in some sort of transational fashion that it finally gets people’s attention.
  5. COVID19
    Someone REALLY IMPORTANT shuffles off this mortal coil and suddenly everything is throw up in the air in a big, big way. I really don’t want this type of thing to happen.
  6. Political Violence
    This would happen in such a way as to either cause people to “rally round the flag” right before the election or pretty much cause the country to implode in some fashion.
  7. Geopolitical Saber Rattling
    In real terms, both the DPRK and Iran have been very quiet. I could see Little Rocket Man trying to help his BFF Trump by scaring the shit out of us. Then everything goes out of control and we’re fucked.

    Bonus Post Election Surprises
    Even if there’s a huge landslide in Biden’s favor, Barr STILL tries to steal the election and all bets are off. Or, even worse, the Russians steal the election for Trump and we find out sooner rather than later.

Comparative Political History: Claudia Conway & Martha Mitchell


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You know you live in surreal times when have to start wondering if a 15-year-old should be up for the Pulitzer Prize. But, here we are.

But let’s look into the person who Miss Conway is most analogous to: Watergate’s Martha Mitchell. She was called “the Mouth of the South” and loved to gossip. In 1972, she overheard her husband — Attorney General Bob Mitchell — talking about the Watergate coverup.

We’re sorry, Martha.

Her husband found out and for her troubles she was tranquilized and held captive. (If I remember the story correctly.) Because she was so outrageous and kooky, when she started rambling about the Watergate coverup, no one believed her — they thought she was a nut.

The weird thing about Miss Conway is, to date, she’s been able to speak freely on Tik-Tok (of all things.) So, the question is — can we trust her? I think so. What we can’t understand is the internal dynamic of the Conway family and how it is she can blab about such important things without fear of retribution. So, that, in itself, makes you scratch your head and wonder if any of this can possibly be true.

Anyway.

Things are weird right now.

The Darkest Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of right now, it seems as though Trump is going to be fine. There may be a lot of rumors about him being near-death, but just like Little Rocket Man, he’ll pull through and be fine. He can go about his work of destroying the Republic unfettered.

But, let’s imagine that doesn’t happen.

Two major issues immediately confront us — what to do with Republican ticket and any political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon who think it’s all a Deep State effort to stop Trump from taking “total control.”

The Ticket
The few MAGA people I talk to say Pence is not for them. So, it seems as though there will be a very brutal power struggle to figure out who will lead the Republicans. Because he’s already on the ticket, Pence has the 9/10th rule on his side. But this things may grow very untenable for him politically very quickly. I could see Ivanka becoming the Republican nominee or some negotiated deal whereby Pence promises to name her veep should he win. All I know is — House Trump ain’t going nowhere.

Violence
I believe the United States would suffer unprecedented political violence from the moment the Dear Leader flew his unicorn into the sky. In fact, it could be that Trump’s legacy may be the thing that brings down the Republic and pushes us into civil war / revolution, not the living Trump.

But I just don’t see either one of those being an issue. Just because Claudia Conway says he’s “sicker” than we’re being told, doesn’t mean anything. I would, however, check with her immediately if rumors of The Dear Leader’s demise pop out of the darkness.

House Trump’s ‘Regency’ & The Fate Of America — & Humanity


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me state that I think Trump is going to be fine. But, let’s suppose he’s a “long hauler” and is incapacitated by COVID19 for a longer amount of time. What happens?

The World Without The United States.

I think we’d have some sort of Regency, then. Probably made up of Ivanka, Jared and Barr. I say this because apparently Ivanka and Jared run everything already and Barr would be the goon that inforced everything legally.

This is how “Trump” would do exactly what we all expect him to do anyway — steal the election post-election. Now, this raises and interesting situation — what if Biden clobbers Trump politically and the House Trump Regency STILL tries to steal the election (which they will.)

This is a recipe for the United States to implode.What I mean by this is our national polity goes –poof! — and we devolve into our major local and regional polities. Even the U.S. Military may not be able to keep things together if that happens. They won’t chose POTUS, because they won’t exist.

Major polities in the US below the national level are California, Texas, the Deep South, the Northeast and NYC. If we were to, God forbid, Balkanize, those would be the polities that would sort things out.

Three things of note — if you keep California in the Union, then that’s the bedrock of any “Renewed American Covenant.” Texas is a real question mark as to which direction they would go which can be summed up by the question, “Is Texas American or Southern?” Also, there would likely be massive domestic political refugees as the Blue and the Red consolidated their political positions internally.

But, remember, the entire 70 year old liberal global order would go tits up the moment the US imploded, so the very existence of humanity might be in question as China-India-Pakistan-Israel-Iran-DPRK began to attempt to get a lot of their geopolitical dreams for no other reason than they know they can now.

Do I really think that’s going to happen — no.

But is something to at least take seriously enough to think about.

The Scenario That Dare Not Speak Its Name


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love scenarios. I also hate the idea of anything physical happening to POTUS, no matter who it is — even someone I keep calling an American Hitler like Donald fucking Trump.

The Scenario That Dare Not Speak Its Name.

Anyway, let’s run this one.

If Trump shuffles off this mortal coil, Pence becomes POTUS. But what happens to the Republican ticket? There are a number people Pence might pick. I think he goes with Ivanka Trump to “keep it in the family.” She’s moderate, she’s Jewish, she’s a woman and she a Trump. She seems the perfect veep to help Pence shore up those sweet, sweet excerb votes.

Other options are the obvious Nikki Haley and, gulp, Tom “Brown Shirt” Cotton. A long shot is maybe Eric Trump because he’s a Trump and doesn’t have the apparent and alleged drug problem that Don Jr. has.

Or, put it another way, don’t count House Trump out just yet.

Meanwhile, I would assume that the race will get far closer. Like 1976 or 2000 close. But at the same time, Pence has a traditional American pols adherence to democratic norms. So, things get a bit more tricky for MAGA-Qanon to go nuts on us.

But the key thing we have to remember is MAGA-Qanon is going to think that anything that happens to Trump is some sort of Deep State attack on the Dear Leader. They’re almost sure to blow something up or start running around murdering liberals because of this.

The point is — I want to defeat Trump politically. I want him to live long in prison with no access to the Internet and Putin and Ivanka his only visitors. Fuck that guy.

Don’t Panic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I do think that Trump has been asymptomatic far longer than anyone has told us, I think, in real terms, he’s fine. He’s got the best medical care in the world.

Even if he should hand over control to Pence, he won’t. So, for the next 48 hours or so, we’ll going to be a nation without a leader. This is a a very bad situation for Pax Americana, but lulz. Everything is very stupid.

We should be able to muddle through things like we always do. I just am not prepared to entertain the idea that this is not simply a speed bump on our way to either autocracy or implosion.

And I continue to have a lot of concern about the possibility that MAGA-Qanon, which is already a racist, misogynistic conspiracy theory wrapped around a lie, may freak out and start blowing shit up if they think this is all a Deep State attempt to hurt Trump and the movement.

This whole situation makes me queasy because of that aspect of it.

Trump seems immune to history or accountability. So there’s no reason to think he won’t be immune to this, too.

Was Trump’s COVID19 Announcement A ‘Controlled Roll Out?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something isn’t right about Trump’s announcement that he has COVID19. The sequence of events doesn’t make any sense. You mean to tell me that within a few hours of Hope Hicks getting it, Trump is just blurting out that he has it?

This leads me to a spectrum of possibilities. On one end we have this whole thing is a politically motivated hoax. Trump wants to juice the base by having them think he has COVID19. He doesn’t do anything for a few weeks, then pops out stronger than ever and wins.

On the other end of the spectrum, is something far darker.

Trump’s taken a turn for the worse in the last few hours and the controlled roll out of this news isn’t part of a hoax, it’s a way of slowly letting the country know that Trump is seriously ill. Like, Nearer my God to Thee sick.

That would explain why Bloomberg, of all media outlets, found out about Hope Hicks. She prepped the way for this particular crucial piece of information to “accidently on purpose” pop out.

I think the key to knowing what’s going on is what happens in the next 24 hours or so. If we have proof Trump is pretty much fine, then I’m more likely to believe he’s known he’s got COVID19 for some time and he’s just be asymptomatic. If he mysteriously goes dark for a the next few days, then we know Trump is actually really, really sick.

The one thing I’m extremely nervous about is the likelihood of significant political violence from insane MAGA-Qanon people who think all of this is some sort of Deep State plot to hurt Trump.

The Stench Of Treason Is All Over #BenedictDonald



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It’s wild how so many really smart people — the Blue Check Liberals — stare straight at the answer as to why Trump acts the way he does and can’t come up with an explanation.

Trump is a traitor.

Now, let me qualify that statement. He’s probably not a LITERAL traitor in the legal definition, but fuck if he isn’t one in the political sense. The thing about Trump is you can never figure out if he’s a patsy or an actual active Russian agent.

I think, maybe, it’s a muddled mixture of both. He’s so stupid and lacks such self-awareness that he probably is simply a useful fool for the Russians, and, yet, he turns around and pulls 1/3 of our troops out of German by September and you wonder if he’s just a regular old agent.

You see, I think in the end, Trump has half a dozen (maybe more) ways he’s going to use to steal the 2020 election. But his ultimate failsafe is pretty obvious — there’s reason why he’s pulling those troops out of German — it’s a direct quid pro quo for the Russians hacking directly into our election systems.

The question, of course, is will we even figure it out?

I could see the period of time between Election Night and Jan 20th being a period of astonishing instability in the United States. There will be lawsuits. There will be rolling political violence. There will be Republican ratfucking and treason.

And, in the end, Trump will win.

All he has to do is get into his second term so his new second term Veep (who I think may be Gen. Mike Flynn) can become president and be even more treasonous.

Lulz, nothing matters.

Some Surreal Possible 2020 Futures


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Here are some possible — but reasonably unlikely — bonkers things that may happen still in 2020.

A War In Korea
Weird things are happening in Korea right now. If I was the DPRK, I would shoot my shot right now, both figuratively and literally. The United States is not only extremely distracted and divided, it has a deranged bonkers Mad King as its ruler. If it wants to prove a point — any point — now is the time to do it.

Trump AND Pence Get COVID19
I don’t want this, but if tonight’s MAGA Nuremberg really turns out to be a strategic superspreader event, there’s a good chance both the president and vice president may be temporarily incapacitated. Nancy Pelosi would become acting president and for a few weeks and things would get VERY VERY SURREAL.

Trump Loses It
There’s a chance that Trump really will lose it and all kinds of crazy shit might happen. His criminality and his insanity might fuse and he’ll start to personally attack Electors.