Which State Will Start A Second American Civil War?

by Shelt Garner

The thing that so many people miss is the MAGA New Right is ascendant and they have no reason to start a civil war because they’re going to get everything they want via politics. It’s the center-Left, or Blue States, that are going to start a civil war if it comes to that.

And the state that would be most likely to leave the Union and start any process that might cause a Second American Civil War is California. It’s got a huge economy and the biggest population in the Union and if there was so egregious overreach on the part of the MAGA New Right in 2024 – 2025, then California may bounce.

Now, I have to note that it’s just as possible that instead of a mass exit of Blue States out of the Union…there may be a mass exit of center-Left individuals who vote with their feet when the time comes. Whenever I bring this up to my Traditionalist relatives, they get upset at what they feel is the suggestion that Red States aren’t as economically productive as Blue States.

They refuse to see Red States in any negative light to the point that they are, for the moment at least, glad to see a multitude of highly skilled center-Left people leave the country, even if it’s to the severe detriment of the nation. We’re so absolutely divided that everything is seen as a zero sum game by the MAGA New Right.

They’re always right. They never do anything wrong. And if you point to cold, hard facts that do, in fact, put them in a negative light they just get angry and tell you the facts you pointed out are “bogus.”

So, as I keep saying, we’re careening towards civil war or autocracy. And I still don’t know which option America is going to choose. It really could go either way. And, as I keep saying, the choice is likely to finally be made for tactical political reasons at some point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

But I can’t predict the future. I don’t know what’s going to happen. But all I know is the United States is running on political fumes. Something’s gotta give and if there’s a civil war, it’s probably going to start when California gets fed up with the power-hungry nature of the MAGA New Right and attempts to leave the Union.

Glenn Youngkin & Virginia’s Dark Political Future

by Shelt Garner

Jesus, is Virginia fucked. The problem with Virginia is it’s microcosm of America as a whole. The rural, Red parts of the state long for autocracy, while the urban Blue parts continue to believe in the democratic process. The dark part of all of this is the United States is now an anocracy and in 2024 – 2025 we’re going to face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Given that by definition to be a Republican is to be a fascist, when the time comes and Virginia has to pick a side — say, in the case of California leaving the Union — the state is probably going to implode. There could be a coup of some sort and Gov. Youngkin will be forced to decamp to a more conservative part of the state. The historian in me says of course he will flee to Danville, since it’s the Last Capitol of The Confederacy.

But it was inevitable that a fascist GQP Republican would win in Virginia. That’s the weakness of a democracy that’s transitioned into an anocracy. You have elections, so the “bad guys” are going to win eventually. And all they have to do is win ONE election and they just never leave power.

So that’s where we’re at with Gov. Youngkin. He’s going to tear Virginia apart as the years progress. And, ultimately, either he becomes a GQP goon in autocratic America, or the wholes state collapses in on itself with no obvious end game.

I honestly don’t know which direction the state will go.

A Great Reset

by Shelt Garner

It’s my personal conviction that if Russia attacks Ukraine in a big, historic manner this winter that it will mark the end of the post-World War 2 liberal order. The one that millions died for between the years 1937 and 1945. I say this because it would be the first time since 1945 when there was a war this big in somewhere as important as Europe.

There have been a number of invasions — most of them by the Soviets — during the Cold War — but they would be relatively limited compared to the damage that a war between Russia and Ukraine would cause. There would be refugees in the 100,000s and causalities in the 10,000s. It’s possible that Russia might set off a series of events within Ukraine that go far beyond anything they believe possible.

It’s within the realm of possibility that Ukraine might simply collapse into mass chaos. Far Right nationalists could spring up, powered by pure, white hot irredentism. What’s more, the United States is so mind-bogglingly divided at the moment that no matter what happened between Russia and Ukraine, once the war started China could very well be emboldened enough to attack Taiwan in the next few years (months?)

The most disturbing element of all of this is how, because of long term macro trends, the United States ship of state is sinking and sinking fast. Something big is going to happen to the United States between now and, say, January 2025 and there’s nothing we can do to stop it. Everything is in place and nothing is going to fix the systemic issues that will cause the United States to either slide into autocracy or have a massive, tragic civil war.

A Russo-Ukrainian War would just be the beginning of an epic, historic era of instability not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939. With the United States careening towards a dark, unstable future and the Russians having eaten a huge chunk of Ukraine, it could be open season across the globe in ways we’ve not seen in generations.

Take, for instance, the DPRK. The last few days have seen some ominous statements come out of Pyongyang. What happens if, in the middle of a Russo-Ukrainian War, the DPRK begins to saber rattle by shooting off ICBMs and testing H-bombs? That would only add to the global sense of chaos and instability.

And, remember, if two major regional wars were happening at the same time — Russia / Ukraine and China / Taiwan — it would be very hard for the American press to resist the temptation to brand it all World War 3. What’s more, as I mentioned, the United States is careening towards either autocracy or civil war no later than January 2025.

So. Enjoy these twilight days of stability. Things could get pretty lit pretty quick. Maybe within a few days.

I’m Very Pleased With The Progress of The 5 Novels I’m Developing & Writing

by Shelt Garner

As I’ve said before, every so often, I have something of a reset with the development of these novels I’m working on. Something clicks in my mind and I see how to make them much, much better. And the latest example of this is I have come to see a way to show something about a very important character in the series.

The overall theme of these five novels is the value of one person’s life and how one person can influence the lives of others — even in death. This theme developed as I struggled to write what are now the last two novels in this project. It occurred to me that I had a huge backstory in my mind and that I could write at least two 100,000 word novels about what lead up to the strange little town I came up with. Ultimately, those two novels became three and here we are — I have five novels to develop and write.

But the clock is ticking. I need to stop fucking around and get these novels knocked out so I can start to query them. I like how overwhelming all of this is. That was the point of this all when I started this project as an homage to Stieg Larsson. It was originally meant to be an allegory about the Trump Era…then Trump was too stupid and too lazy to steal the 2020 election and then I saw Mare of Easttown and everything change.

So, now, I have five novels to work on. I’m giving myself no more than about two more years. That will mark the 20th anniversary of my first journey to South Korea in 2024. Of course, by that point the Fourth Turning may be in full swing and I’ll have far bigger problems to have to think about — like, say, a Second American Civil War happening in conjunction with World War 3.

My Hot Take On The #Russian – #Ukraine Crisis For January 22, 2022

by Shelt Garner

I’m definitely not an expert, but here’s my novice hot take on what’s going on at the moment between Russia and Ukraine. If all of this is just a big flex on the part of Putin in hopes of getting “respect” from the West, then he sure is expending a huge amount of money to do so. Or, put another way, there comes a point when you just can’t have a massive portion of your military forward deployed, then pull back, without looking like a fool. The world community thinks you’re going to do something, so you might feel obliged to live up to their expectations.

It doesn’t make any sense to me that Putin would go through all this trouble just to turn around and say, “psych!” He’s up to something, something big. And the questions now are when and how big? Given what I understand about the issue of mud around Ukraine impleading any Russian advance, it seems as though sometime in February would be ideal.

At the moment, the sweet spot for any invasion is probably after the Winter Olympics, which end on February 20th. And, yet, I dunno. It seems as thought that might not be a consideration for Putin at this point. My current personal guess is any war between Russia and Ukraine might starts around February 15 or so.

I say that because a huge number of Russian forces are flooding into Belarus at the moment for “joint training exercises” that are supposed to take place between now and around the middle of February.

And, yet, there’s a big thing to consider — to date, I’ve been wrong all the time about what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine, so why would this be any different. So, it’s very possible that this really is just a big, foolish flex on Putin’s part and the spring mud will come and…nothing will have happened.

But I am keeping an eye on all of this. At the moment, the momentum is towards a major war between Russia and Ukraine. If that happens, it could collapse the entirety of the post-WW2 global liberal order to the point that we’ll see instability the likes of which we’ve not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939.

And to this how the United States is careening towards a “Fourth Turning” around 2025 and we could very well have something akin to a “Great Reset” with a Second American Civil War happening in conjunction with WW3.

Did A Leftist Manic Pixie Dream Girl At Vice Break Tim Pool’s Heart?

by Shelt Garner

I honestly don’t give a shit about weird MAGA New Right “thought leader” Tim Pool. Whatever, live the fuck on and prosper. But I remember when Tim Pool worked at Vice and was just another one of their asshole Leftist that the old Gawker would make fun of for how needlessly over-the-top they were.

But, at some point, all that changed. Pool became an enfant terrible of the MAGA New Right for some reason. It’s not so much that he “switch sides” that interests me — I mean, people change — but for it happen out of the blue makes me wonder if maybe something personal was involved.

Tim Pool

And I know enough about the human psyche to know it’s very easy to imagine a scenario where some cute Leftist girl — a manic pixie dream girl, if you will — broke that poor boy’s heart and he vowed to get back at her by turning into a rabid New Right person. At least, that makes sense to me.

But I will note that Pool’s conversion proves that the MAGA New Right grift has an exceeding low bar of entry. I mean, it’s so fucking low that if I sold my soul to Trumplandia I could probably be having dinner with Trump himself within six months.

The books I’ve been reading about the macro issues involved in America’s transition to anocracy really are very illuminating about all of this bullshit. A lot of white men feel very insecure about the social changes taking place in America right now and there is a huge demand for articulate people to express that rage.

One last thing. It is within the realm of possibility that I’m related — through marriage — to Pool. He’s apparently from the Hampton Roads area and I have a cousin there married to a Pool. I have nothing personal against the guy. It would be interesting to have dinner with him and ask, “What was her name?”

Is Trump Still ‘Too Big To Fail?’

by Shelt Garner

Well, this is interesting. There seems to be a growing chorus within the Far Right that suggest that Trump is a washed up hasbeen. Now, we all know what this really means — Trump has served his political purpose. He has paved the way for a far more palatable and “boring” autocrat to swoop in and finish the job he started.

This has long been a concern of mine. That Trump might be knocked out of the running politically and then we would have to worry about someone like DeSantis or Cotton or Pompeo or Hawley or you name it being the person who would ultimately be America’s “Putin.” And, remember, not even Putin built his autocracy in a day. It was a gradual thing. So, it’s easy to imagine President DeSantis being POTUS for eight years, then mysteriously and magically becoming Speaker of the House and running the country that way until he was able to convince people that we need a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.”

That definitely seems to be our lot at this particular moment. Or we have a civil war. But the likelihood of a civil war decreases dramatically if someone, anyone other than Trump is our 2025 autocrat. Trump is such a fucking lazy idiot who always says the quiet part out loud that he, unto himself, could cause a civil war just by being an idiot who is no longer “useful.”

But I would not count Trump out quite yet. Yes, under any normal definition Trump is a washed up political hasbeen that should just shut up and enjoy his political retirement. But Trump always, always, always does the wrong thing and somehow comes up on top. So, it makes total sense that he would simply through sheer force of will become the Republican 2024 nominee and push the United States perilously close to a Second Civil War.

If Trump is the Republican nominee again, I suggest you get a pass port and figure out what you believe in and what you’re willing to suffer for in the real world. Things are going to get lit.

Hollywood, Australia?

by Shelt Garner

I’m a nobody in the rural part of a fly over state. I don’t know anything about anything. But in my travels around the world over the years, I have noticed that people from Perth, Australia are some of the most unique in the world. They’re very interesting, creative people.

So, whenever my mind wander into what might happen to some of the deeper Blue portions of America like Hollywood, I think of Perth. If the movie industry were to, en mass flee autocratic America, they would do worse than to go to Perth. Now, Perth is in the middle of nowhere. It’s pretty much a long ways away from everywhere.

But the weather is decent and it would be a great place for all the Deep Blue Hollywood types to live once Hollywood is finally consumed by Immersive Media. I have to note, in passing how annoyed I am at how many center-Left people already have one foot out the door when it comes to the United States. I mean, come on, people, you don’t have the gumption to stand and fight for the freedoms that have made you so wealthy?

Ugh. Fuck that and fuck them.

But anyway, the issue is — we all have to prepare for some severe turbulence in the United States between now and no later than January 2025. Everyone is going to have to pick a side based on what they believe. It’s just sad that so many Twitter liberals who could otherwise help the cause of saving freedom and democracy in the United States are cowards and would rather run away than help defend the idea that the America really is the land of the free, home of the brave.

Or put another way — just because Trump was too stupid and lazy to “not lose” the 2020 election, doesn’t mean he won’t be able to “not lose” the 2024 election. We’re totally fucked no matter what. We’re just not going to muddle through this crisis like we have with other major events in our history in the past.

The years 2024 – 2025 will be the biggest political crisis in American domestic history since the secession crisis of 1860 – 1861. Either you’re prepared for it when it happens, or you’re not.

Good luck.

American Diaspora

by Shelt Garner

All indications are that if the United States doesn’t buckle and have a civil war and instead becomes an autocracy that many, many center-Left people are going to vote with their feet and leave the country. I mention this to the Traditionalists I know and instead of growing alarmed at how much this would hurt the nation we both love, they get rather defensive. They get wrapped up in the idea that I’m somehow suggesting that Reds aren’t as economically productive as Blues.

I find this very, very bonkers.

But it’s a sign of how bad things are right now in the United States. Red and Blue hate each other so much that they no longer have any shared sense of national identity. Everything, EVERYTHING, is seen through the prism of partisan politics, right down to the effects of an American Diaspora.

And, yet, here we are. I think it’s clear that many, many wealthy and economically productive center-Left people in the United States already have one foot out of the door. I keep seeing on Twitter center-Left people talking about how they’re getting non-American passports as backup for the possibility that they may simply decamp.

It’s things like this that make me think the center-Left, when the time comes in 2024 – 2025, is simply going to give up and let us slip peacefully into autocracy. There will be a lot of angry Twitter rants by Twitter liberals, but they will be written in Paris, not New York City.

Another scenario is both things happen. We have a civil war and a lot of center-Left people leave the country because of the instability. I struggle to figure out where all these center-Left Twitter liberals will ultimately settle, however. As I’ve written before, I think it’s at least possible that somewhere like the Philippines might benefit a great deal from America sliding into autocracy. The weather is hot, it has a historical connection to the United States and it’s big enough to handle many, many Americans settling there.

I also think somewhere like Perth might enjoy a cultural rebirth. Everyone I’ve ever met from Perth was really interesting and creative and it seems like that would be a perfect place for Hollywood to settle in the event of some sort of massive clusterfuck in the United States, in 2024 – 2025.

But one thing is clear — the United States can no longer simply sleepwalk through history. History has one eye open now and will be wide awake by the time the Republicans flip the House and Senate later this year. Everything is going to change once Republicans have power again. They’re going to impeach both Biden and Harris and generally things are going to suck.

The years 2023 – 2024 are likely to be just one long impeachment trial of the entire Biden / Harris Administration. Add to this how Republicans are already screaming at the top of their lungs how they plan to brazenly steal the 2024 election and…oh boy.

Anyway. As I keep saying — get ready. Things are going to get pretty bumpy in the United States very, very soon.

Review: ‘How Civil Wars Start’

by Shelt Garner

I really enjoyed Barbara F. Walter’s “How Civil Wars Start…And How To Stop Them.” I recommend it. It’s extremely well written and thought out. But, sad to say, it’s severely flawed as well. Not that you shouldn’t buy it, you should, but you should go into it knowing that it’s fighting battles that either don’t exist or are impossible to solve.

The first problem is her exclusive focus on the notion that the MAGA New Right will not only be the origin of any second civil war in the United States, but that any such civil war won’t be a “civil war” in the traditional sense, but rather something akin closer to The Troubles of Northern Ireland. I take issue with this because, lulz, the MAGA New Right is running around, yelling at the top of its lungs how it plans to seize control of the United States without firing a shot. They are ascendant, they have no reason to start any hot civil war.

But you know who will in 2024 – 2025?

Blue States, starting probably with California. The Bear State Republic attempting to leave the Union would cause a cascading series of events which would leave us with a pitched battle between Blue America and Trumplandia. Either the U.S. Military collapses as Blues leave it to establish the armed forces of Blue America, or we endup with some sort of military junta that tries to put the country back together long enough for, say, a Constitutional Convention to be held.

The other severe flaw with the book is the solutions she proposes. All of them are bullshit. Not one of them will ever be implemented. We’re not South Africa. We don’t have any leadership with the ability to put the needs of the nation first. And, besides, we have a winner-take-all system of government and Senate. The MAGA New Right will never, ever for any reason allow any of the reforms she suggests will help us avoid a civil war.

There are only two possible solutions to the massive clusterfuck we find ourselves in — civil war or autocracy. And if we do have a civil war, we will bomb ourselves into the Stone Age in the context of WW3 taking place. The globe will be wracked with a conflagration far worse than WW2.

We are completely, totally fucked in the extreme. Lincoln’s Second American Republic is fucking doomed one way or another. The thing that Traditionalists believe will happen — that they will get all the goodies of white Christian minority rule without the downside of autocracy — simply isn’t going to happen.

In the end, loudmouth cranks like me are going to have our heads bashed in by ICE at the direction of the autocrat or we’re going to become one of millions of domestic political refugees who find succor in a Blue State or in, I dunno, Canada.

You have until about 2024 to get your affairs in order. I suggest you do so.