Comparative Political History: Claudia Conway & Martha Mitchell


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You know you live in surreal times when have to start wondering if a 15-year-old should be up for the Pulitzer Prize. But, here we are.

But let’s look into the person who Miss Conway is most analogous to: Watergate’s Martha Mitchell. She was called “the Mouth of the South” and loved to gossip. In 1972, she overheard her husband — Attorney General Bob Mitchell — talking about the Watergate coverup.

We’re sorry, Martha.

Her husband found out and for her troubles she was tranquilized and held captive. (If I remember the story correctly.) Because she was so outrageous and kooky, when she started rambling about the Watergate coverup, no one believed her — they thought she was a nut.

The weird thing about Miss Conway is, to date, she’s been able to speak freely on Tik-Tok (of all things.) So, the question is — can we trust her? I think so. What we can’t understand is the internal dynamic of the Conway family and how it is she can blab about such important things without fear of retribution. So, that, in itself, makes you scratch your head and wonder if any of this can possibly be true.

Anyway.

Things are weird right now.

The Darkest Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of right now, it seems as though Trump is going to be fine. There may be a lot of rumors about him being near-death, but just like Little Rocket Man, he’ll pull through and be fine. He can go about his work of destroying the Republic unfettered.

But, let’s imagine that doesn’t happen.

Two major issues immediately confront us — what to do with Republican ticket and any political violence on the part of MAGA-Qanon who think it’s all a Deep State effort to stop Trump from taking “total control.”

The Ticket
The few MAGA people I talk to say Pence is not for them. So, it seems as though there will be a very brutal power struggle to figure out who will lead the Republicans. Because he’s already on the ticket, Pence has the 9/10th rule on his side. But this things may grow very untenable for him politically very quickly. I could see Ivanka becoming the Republican nominee or some negotiated deal whereby Pence promises to name her veep should he win. All I know is — House Trump ain’t going nowhere.

Violence
I believe the United States would suffer unprecedented political violence from the moment the Dear Leader flew his unicorn into the sky. In fact, it could be that Trump’s legacy may be the thing that brings down the Republic and pushes us into civil war / revolution, not the living Trump.

But I just don’t see either one of those being an issue. Just because Claudia Conway says he’s “sicker” than we’re being told, doesn’t mean anything. I would, however, check with her immediately if rumors of The Dear Leader’s demise pop out of the darkness.

House Trump’s ‘Regency’ & The Fate Of America — & Humanity


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me state that I think Trump is going to be fine. But, let’s suppose he’s a “long hauler” and is incapacitated by COVID19 for a longer amount of time. What happens?

The World Without The United States.

I think we’d have some sort of Regency, then. Probably made up of Ivanka, Jared and Barr. I say this because apparently Ivanka and Jared run everything already and Barr would be the goon that inforced everything legally.

This is how “Trump” would do exactly what we all expect him to do anyway — steal the election post-election. Now, this raises and interesting situation — what if Biden clobbers Trump politically and the House Trump Regency STILL tries to steal the election (which they will.)

This is a recipe for the United States to implode.What I mean by this is our national polity goes –poof! — and we devolve into our major local and regional polities. Even the U.S. Military may not be able to keep things together if that happens. They won’t chose POTUS, because they won’t exist.

Major polities in the US below the national level are California, Texas, the Deep South, the Northeast and NYC. If we were to, God forbid, Balkanize, those would be the polities that would sort things out.

Three things of note — if you keep California in the Union, then that’s the bedrock of any “Renewed American Covenant.” Texas is a real question mark as to which direction they would go which can be summed up by the question, “Is Texas American or Southern?” Also, there would likely be massive domestic political refugees as the Blue and the Red consolidated their political positions internally.

But, remember, the entire 70 year old liberal global order would go tits up the moment the US imploded, so the very existence of humanity might be in question as China-India-Pakistan-Israel-Iran-DPRK began to attempt to get a lot of their geopolitical dreams for no other reason than they know they can now.

Do I really think that’s going to happen — no.

But is something to at least take seriously enough to think about.

The Scenario That Dare Not Speak Its Name


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love scenarios. I also hate the idea of anything physical happening to POTUS, no matter who it is — even someone I keep calling an American Hitler like Donald fucking Trump.

The Scenario That Dare Not Speak Its Name.

Anyway, let’s run this one.

If Trump shuffles off this mortal coil, Pence becomes POTUS. But what happens to the Republican ticket? There are a number people Pence might pick. I think he goes with Ivanka Trump to “keep it in the family.” She’s moderate, she’s Jewish, she’s a woman and she a Trump. She seems the perfect veep to help Pence shore up those sweet, sweet excerb votes.

Other options are the obvious Nikki Haley and, gulp, Tom “Brown Shirt” Cotton. A long shot is maybe Eric Trump because he’s a Trump and doesn’t have the apparent and alleged drug problem that Don Jr. has.

Or, put it another way, don’t count House Trump out just yet.

Meanwhile, I would assume that the race will get far closer. Like 1976 or 2000 close. But at the same time, Pence has a traditional American pols adherence to democratic norms. So, things get a bit more tricky for MAGA-Qanon to go nuts on us.

But the key thing we have to remember is MAGA-Qanon is going to think that anything that happens to Trump is some sort of Deep State attack on the Dear Leader. They’re almost sure to blow something up or start running around murdering liberals because of this.

The point is — I want to defeat Trump politically. I want him to live long in prison with no access to the Internet and Putin and Ivanka his only visitors. Fuck that guy.

Don’t Panic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I do think that Trump has been asymptomatic far longer than anyone has told us, I think, in real terms, he’s fine. He’s got the best medical care in the world.

Even if he should hand over control to Pence, he won’t. So, for the next 48 hours or so, we’ll going to be a nation without a leader. This is a a very bad situation for Pax Americana, but lulz. Everything is very stupid.

We should be able to muddle through things like we always do. I just am not prepared to entertain the idea that this is not simply a speed bump on our way to either autocracy or implosion.

And I continue to have a lot of concern about the possibility that MAGA-Qanon, which is already a racist, misogynistic conspiracy theory wrapped around a lie, may freak out and start blowing shit up if they think this is all a Deep State attempt to hurt Trump and the movement.

This whole situation makes me queasy because of that aspect of it.

Trump seems immune to history or accountability. So there’s no reason to think he won’t be immune to this, too.

Was Trump’s COVID19 Announcement A ‘Controlled Roll Out?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something isn’t right about Trump’s announcement that he has COVID19. The sequence of events doesn’t make any sense. You mean to tell me that within a few hours of Hope Hicks getting it, Trump is just blurting out that he has it?

This leads me to a spectrum of possibilities. On one end we have this whole thing is a politically motivated hoax. Trump wants to juice the base by having them think he has COVID19. He doesn’t do anything for a few weeks, then pops out stronger than ever and wins.

On the other end of the spectrum, is something far darker.

Trump’s taken a turn for the worse in the last few hours and the controlled roll out of this news isn’t part of a hoax, it’s a way of slowly letting the country know that Trump is seriously ill. Like, Nearer my God to Thee sick.

That would explain why Bloomberg, of all media outlets, found out about Hope Hicks. She prepped the way for this particular crucial piece of information to “accidently on purpose” pop out.

I think the key to knowing what’s going on is what happens in the next 24 hours or so. If we have proof Trump is pretty much fine, then I’m more likely to believe he’s known he’s got COVID19 for some time and he’s just be asymptomatic. If he mysteriously goes dark for a the next few days, then we know Trump is actually really, really sick.

The one thing I’m extremely nervous about is the likelihood of significant political violence from insane MAGA-Qanon people who think all of this is some sort of Deep State plot to hurt Trump.

What We Can Learn From The 1st American Civil War As We Lurch Towards The 2nd (Maybe)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I generally think anyone — regardless of political stripe — is being a bloodthirsty moron to be giddy at the prospect of a “Second American Civil War.” War is hell. It sucks. I don’t want it.

But it definitely seems as though should Trump not win election outright on Election Night even though the Russians lived up to their end of the bargain after Trump pulled 1/3 of our troops out of Germany, that the more difficult it is for him to “win” the more thuggish and ham-handed he will become. As such, Barr’s post-election ratfucking can only go so far.

There might come a point when the Blue States and Red States are actually at each other’s throats on a military level.

The beginning of the ACW1 indicates that after the shock wears off, the dynamics of history are not something anyone can easily predict. The thing that idiot MAGA-Qanon people are so delusional about is they seem to think that just because they have Ben Shapiro and Charlie Kirk on their side that somehow they’re going to win outright the moment such political violence begins to happen.

What’s more likely to happen is after some desperate last-ditch efforts to prevent it all, there will be significant consolidation in the respective parts of the country. Once it sinks in to the average American that they have to pick a side, no matter what, then some pretty fucking surreal things may happen. People you wouldn’t expect finally jump ship from the MAGA-Qanon personality cult might actually do it.

Or, put another way, the opening days of any civil war are going to be full of confusion. Both sides are going to wait for the other to make the first move. Lincoln, of course, was a genius at this and forced the South to officially start the war when he attempt to re-enforce Fort Sumter. The specifics will be completely different because, well, Trump is a high-functioning moron who will thrash about on Twitter as everything finally collapses.

One crucial issue is what the goals of each side would be as the civil war began. A lot of people think the Blue States would simply want to bounce, but I have some serious doubts. It makes a lot more sense that any civil war would be a pitched battle for the soul of the country.

Another interesting thing is Trump has a solid 38% of the electorate. That’s it. About 38% of the electorate is bloodthirsty enough, enough in the personality death cult that they would lunge at the opportunity to make “Q’s” dream of a liberal free America a reality.

But there are a shit-ton of Americans who simply want to live a peaceful life in a free country. And, as such, it’s reasonable to believe that Blue States (once they get their shit together and start taking things seriously) have a lot going for them.

One issue is, while I can generally game out things to Election Day, after that, I lose any ability to predict what might happen. So, yeah, we have postal service ratfucking. We have the bullshit Durham Investigation. We have Russians hacking direction into our election systems. All those things are a given.

But if somehow all those things fail to throw the election to House Trump, I honestly don’t know what is going to happen. It’s all up in the air. Remember, when you’re actually living through history, there’s no narrative or value. We GIVE it a narrative and value after the fact. We do so in hindsight so we — and future generations — can grasp what happened and why.

I will note that the first few years of ACW1 were years in which it was very touch and go for the Union. It wasn’t until Lincoln decided to make the war a war of liberation that the dynamic of the war changed significantly. So, I would tell Neo-Confederates whose political thought is nothing more than a “South Will Rise Again” grunt that history — especially in times of existential crisis — doesn’t go in a straight line.

But what do I know. The dystopian hellscape is already here. I just want to finish my novel.

Some Surreal Possible 2020 Futures


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Here are some possible — but reasonably unlikely — bonkers things that may happen still in 2020.

A War In Korea
Weird things are happening in Korea right now. If I was the DPRK, I would shoot my shot right now, both figuratively and literally. The United States is not only extremely distracted and divided, it has a deranged bonkers Mad King as its ruler. If it wants to prove a point — any point — now is the time to do it.

Trump AND Pence Get COVID19
I don’t want this, but if tonight’s MAGA Nuremberg really turns out to be a strategic superspreader event, there’s a good chance both the president and vice president may be temporarily incapacitated. Nancy Pelosi would become acting president and for a few weeks and things would get VERY VERY SURREAL.

Trump Loses It
There’s a chance that Trump really will lose it and all kinds of crazy shit might happen. His criminality and his insanity might fuse and he’ll start to personally attack Electors.

On That General Flynn ‘Exoneration’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Mike Flynn is a traitor. But the fact that he’s likely going to be “exonerates” very, very soon is a testament not to his innocence but how powerful House Trump has become.

Autocrats never lose.

So, either Trump pardons Flynn or Bill Barr simply works his magic again and he’s a free man without a pardon. All the conditions are there for either one of those scenarios to happen very, very soon.

Why Trump and his fellow treasonous travelers have such a huge boner to “vindicating” Flynn is all very, very curious. But they’re going to “own the moment” on the Flynn front and crow about it because it gives them something to talk about other than Trump’s horrific handling of the COVID19 pandemic. That’s pretty much all the Right lives for now — anything they can talk about other than COVID19.

Anything.

It’s stuff like this that lends credence to my belief we’re going to all assume Trump will lose in the fall and somehow we wake up in 2022 and he’s still in office, telling us how desperately we need a Constructional Convention to “balance the budget.”

The center-Left in the United States is historically weak all around and the dystopia is here. We’re not thing more than a Russian-style “managed democracy.” By the end of Trump’s second term, protests will be outlawed and any opposition to Trump in the media will be gutted through a variety of means.

If you oppose Trump and have the means to leave the country now, I suggest you do so. It’s only going to get far, far worse in the coming days.

#COVID19 #Pandemic Threat Assessment For March 24th, 2020: A Darkness At Noon

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


We are so doomed.

Trump thinks he can pander to the Religious Right by getting everyone in church in some sort of Trump-As-Christ event around Easter. He thinks everything will wrap up around Easter, we can go back to normal and we want to praise him, praise him, praise him at the polls when November rolls around. That it also gives the markets some sense of security and stability by giving them a definite ending is a twofer.

I guess it might work.

It might work because the MAGA base is such a death cult that even if a few million people die because of this harebrained idea, they will simply shrug and say at least he owned the libs for them. In fact, I would say the ONLY thing that will prevent Trump from cruising into a second term is well, Trump. I could see Trump finally snapping around Easter when it becomes apparent that not only is this not going to wrap up then, but he’s going to be directly blamed for people dying because, well, they went to church for Easter at his behest.

He’s such a self-own artist that it will be Trump himself who brings down House Trump — if that is even possible at this point. Trump going bonkers is pretty much the only thing I can possibly thing of that might bring down House Trump. Otherwise, there’s nothing we can do. I don’t want him to go bonkers because, well, we could all die when he decides to nuke us to oblivion. If he did go bonkers and House Trump fell long enough for a free-and-fair election to happen, it would be rather surreal, to say the least. House Trump is so absolute in its belief that The Thousand Year Trump has been established, the Fourth Reich has been born, that if this even momentarily proves not to be the case, a lot of people are going to be gobsmacked.

The normal rules of politics will kick in with brutal force and Trump will continue to tweet from the sidelines complaining it was a combination “stab in the back” of “the Chinese and liberals” that brought him down. Don Jr. will court the MAGA base and, well, there will be talk of impeaching-and-convicting everyone necessary to get Don Jr. back as president as soon as possible.

I do think Trump will pardon about 20 people — including himself! — the moment we it’s obvious he’s lost even the Electoral College. He may not even leave the White House willingly and that will be the first crisis of the new administration. But I also think Trump’s never leaving office. For him to leave office for any reason — legal, political or self-own — something so jaw-dropping would have to happen that is simply beyond my ability to predict.

We’re stuck with The Thousand Year Trump for about 30 years until the browning of America crosses paths with the decline of the Baby Boomers and finally someone like, say, AOC, topples House Trump and we go back to “normal.”

Fuck you if you’re MAGA. You cocksucker.

I do think, in passing, however, that a lot of these older celebrities who are dying these days are dying of COVID19. Their families simply don’t want their legacy to be how they died instead of their career. I don’t think it’s any sort of “conspiracy,” I think it’s just basic human nature.