‘Loose Cannon’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The current back and forth between Team Trump and the Justice Department in front of Judge Aileen Cannon is a prime example of why Mueller, She Wrote was wrong for blocking me for being “terribly negative.”

The decades’ long plot on the part of Republicans to corrupt the Federal bench is finally beginning to produce fruit. Judge Cannon is a young MAGA hack who will be on the bench for the next 40 odd years, probably. And no amount of whining on the part of Twitter liberals is going to change that. Which is exactly why she was appointed by Trump in the first place.

As such, we’ve probably gotten all the accountability we’re going to get with Trump. He’s suffered some political damage as result of stealing Top Secret documents, but when it comes to anything on a criminal basis…ha! Trump is above the law to the point that this case is going to bounce around the court system long enough that he will declare for 2024…and the whole thing becomes moot.

MAGA Republicans have accepted this criminal act by Trump — like they have all the other criminal shit he’s done — so, yet again, we just won’t have the will to do anything about Trump on either a criminal or political level. It is because of shit like what’s going on with Judge Cannon that any accusations about me being “terribly negative” just don’t hold up.

I’m right and Mueller, She Wrote is wrong, wrong, wrong.

Trump is above the law. And barring something neither I, nor anyone else, can predict, he’s going to be the 2024 Republican nominee. And there’s a good chance he might win outright, no cheating necessary, even though he will anyway because it’s his nature.

Then either Blue States bend a knee to autocratic, fascist MAGA Republicans or we don’t and we have a civil war. Again — I’m not being “terribly negative.” Just looking at what I can see with my own two eyes and gaming out what seeming to be the most logical outcome.

If I had any money, I would start gaming out how to accommodate our coming dystopian hellscape. But I’m a Poor, so, I don’t know what I’m going to do.

My Hot Take On The NARALago Photo

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Team Trump is caterwauling about a photo taken of Top Secret documents at Mar-a-Lago by the FBI. The reason is, of course, is it really hits home what was going on. And given that how much MAGA is freaking out about the picture, it’s obvious that MAGA “thought leaders” feel the photo is hurting them politically.

The big issue that they have with the photo is that is makes like they discovered the documents that way. But, if you look carefully at the photo, the box that the documents (not in this photo, but in another photo) were being stored is right there. So, the real reason why MAGA is freaking out is the photo tells the story of what was going on.

It’s a simple to understand of element of an abstract scandal. Which is exactly why MAGA hates it so much. And given the how potent the picture has been, I think maybe Trump shouldn’t release the CCTV footage of the FBI raid. That would, too, give the average person some sense, in concrete terms, the scope of what was going on at Mar-a-Lago.

Anyway, I think we need to accept that Trump continues to be above the law and he is bending both our political and criminal systems. And there comes a point when we have to put up or shut up about the existential crisis we face of autocracy or civil war.

We’re in the danger zone. We’re past the event horizon for some pretty fucked up things happening in the United States one way or another.

Would Holding Trump Criminally Accountable Cause Riots?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. But, just for the sake of argument, let’s think about what might happen if Trump was held criminally accountable. Would there be “riots in the streets” as Sen. Lindsey Graham suggests? This is one of three ways that Trump might start a Second American Civil War.

  1. An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability
    This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
  2. A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate
    In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
  3. A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution
    This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.

Well, I will admit that the country is on edge. And I will admit that there the conditions are there for severe political violence to happen pretty at any moment. But it takes a lot for even the most bonkers fascist MAGA New Right person to risk life and limb to protect a dingus like Trump. Or, put another way, as much as MAGA New Right people have murdering people like me in cold political blood on the brain, they want a civil war to officially start to do it so they won’t be held criminally accountable.

The events of January 6th were very specific to that moment. It helped a lot that Trump went transactional and told the crowd in front of him that they were going to march down the the Capitol together. (Of course, the shock troops of the Proud Boys were already there, waiting for the rest of the mob to arrive)

So, as such, I think ultimately a lot would rest on what Trump did. It wouldn’t be so much that Trump was indicted or otherwise held accountable, it would be that he went transactional and TOLD the MAGA New Right to burn the country to the ground. Or, even more dire, he might demand that MAGA state legislatures to convene Secessionist Conventions for the specific purpose of putting pressure on the Federal government to protect his sorry ass. Then, things might get out of control and the next thing you know, you have an honest-to-God National Divorce on your hands.

Of course, there is the other option that maybe we might have a 1968-type event, like what happened after Dr. Martin Luther King was murdered, only with white people. There might be some sort of spasm of violence on the part of MAGA New Right cocksuckers.

I honestly don’t know if there would be riots if Trump was held criminally accountable. But I do know that the prospect of such violence is going to be a talking point we hear a lot — A LOT — from the usual suspects of the MAGA New Right going forward.

Will ‘NARAlago’ Be Just Another Scandal Baked Into Steaming Political Shit Cake That Is Trump?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of the moment is if Trump will pay any — any — political price for stealing dozens of Top Secret documents. At the moment, I don’t think so. I think he’s going to get away with it. And if he doesn’t there is a real risk of unpreceded political violence.

Things are so fucked up right now with American politics that the most logical outcome is Trump potentially causing the death of CIA agents will be that the MAGA New Right not only shrugs it off, but clings ever tighter to Trump. I am growing seriously concerned that we’re going to reached something akin to a political Upside Down where Trump goes transactional and single handedly starts a civil war in the United States.

The only reason why NARAlago happened in the first place is Trump simply refused to do what he was asked to do when it was done politely. It’s just not in Trumps nature to abide by what any other normal person would do in a similar situation. So, because he’s a malignant idiot, he forced the Federal government to swoop in and take what they couldn’t otherwise get.

But, again, I think we’re mistaking that for any sort of likelihood that Trump will ultimately be held accountable in a court of law. In the end, NARAlago will simply increase the partisan divisions in the United States and be forgotten except for a few of the usual suspects on Twitter.

As I keep saying, there are a number of instances where Trump could single handedly start a civil war in the United States. If he is the 2024 Republican nominee instead of DeSantis, the risk of a civil war grows significantly because of how radical his second term agenda will be.

Trump, Indictment & The Potential For A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know anything about anything. I’m often, if not usually, wrong. But here, nonetheless, is my hot take on the question of the moment — “Will Trump be indicted?”

No. I don’t think he will be. I think, in the end, this will be just another Bad Thing that is baked into the cake when it comes to Trump. I say this because it’s clear that Republicans have done a gut check and since the base is fired up about what happend — and not in a good way — they have decided to hunker down and cling to Trump even tighter.

Now, remember, Trump is a very complex historical figure because not only is he just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage, he also refuses to get out of the way to DeSantis can finish the job he started. What’s more, even if he did get out of the way, then, like I said, we’re doomed in a different way. DeSantis (or someone like him) will become America’s first autocrat and that will be that. We’ll wake up in 20 years and wonder why DeSantis is still president. We’ll also wonder why we have to use VPN to watch the BBC talk about how horrible things are in the United States.

The other alternative, obviously, is civil war. And if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee then the likelihood of a National Divorce grows dramatically because he always says the “quiet part out loud.” He will cheat to win the 2024 election, even if he doesn’t have to. Trump is such a chaos agent that there are not one but three ways he could start a civil war.

If he got indicted, I could totally see him go transactional and demand Red states begin the process of leaving the Union. Texas’ autocratic state government already talks like it has one foot out the door as it is. Just by calling up a Secessionist Convention, Texas would spook the Federal government to the point that they would ultimately shy away from doing anything with Trump criminally.

Meanwhile, there remains the lingering possibility that Trump will demand to be the Speaker of the House should Republicans take Congress in the fall. Even though I’m notorious for overestimating Trump’s mental abilities, even with his political grunt tendencies, I could see him use the threat of Red States leaving the Union as a bludgeon against Blue Senators when the inevitable impeachment trials of Biden and Harris happen.

The third way Trump might personally start a Second American Civil War would be as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. Either he so brazenly steals the election that Blue States begin to leave the Union or his second term agenda is so radical that that, unto itself, is enough to push Blue states — starting with California — out of the Union.

So, no, I don’t think Trump will be held accountable in any way for stealing America’s top secrets. We’re careening towards a very, very dark fate of either civil war or autocracy and this particular severe crisis will be just among the top five or so worst things Trump has done since 2015.

Good luck.

Trump’s Big Boy Crime Of Espionage Meets The ‘Stormy Daniels Playbook’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For a number of years, since 2015, we’ve been trying to “get” Trump for any number of alarming things. And, every time, to date, he’s managed to escape because of what I call the “Stormy Daniels Playbook.” This Trump “floods the zone” with bullshit long enough for Republican leaders to touch base with MAGA voters and realize that they do, in fact, still support Trump. As such, to date, at least, Trump has known that trying to hold him accountable is much like trying to get any sort of sensible gun control passed after 20 little kids are murdered.

Trump just wants us to get past the shock of whatever the bad thing he did. Once we are able to get past the cognitive dissidence of him paying off a porn star right before an election, or making a “perfect call” to get dirt on Joe Biden, or separating families at the border…he wins. The MAGA base has such absolute fidelity to Trump on a political basis that there is never a point where the people in Republican leadership demand Trump leave the public sphere.

Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war over and above the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

The Stormy Daniels Playbook has served Trump very, very well since at least the Access Hollywood Tape and, as such, it’s inevitably the thing he leans into the moment he realizes whatever it is he’s done wrong isn’t just a PR problem but a Big Boy Crime.

And so, we find ourselves with yet another Big Boy Crime that Trump has committed — espionage. This is so serious that two extreme things of equal value are now careening towards each other at an alarming rate. The absolute fidelity of MAGA to Trump is rushing towards the absolute need for the Justice Department to finally, finally hold Trump accountable for something so absolutely bad that it’s inexcusable, even for political reasons.

We all may be Antifa soon.

As such, if we really do “catch” Trump this time — which I find extremely unlikely — literally anything can happen. I fear we’re underestimating not only the fanatical fidelity to dingus Trump MAGA has, but how unstable the country is in general. To me, it seems the key issue is — if Trump, in a panic, demanded Red States leave the Union in his usual dog whistle way, would they actually call secessionist conventions?

Is that even really within the realm of possibility?

I honestly don’t know at the moment. I do think a state like Texas might do it if Trump demanded it, then once that began to happen, all eyes would turn to South Carolina to see if they would be the one to actually be the first to do it. And, yet, because of race, there’s a chance that some sort of extra legal method would have to be used in South Carolina if that state wanted to leave the Union. But I could maybe see Texas, South Carolina, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi begin to seriously consider leaving the Union if Trump began to rant about this possibility because he was actually going to be held accountable. There are a number of other Red States that would probably leave the Union as well, but those are just the ones that I thought of off the top of my head.

Florida would be would be a very interesting situation because Ron DeSantis would have to figure out if he wanted to risk destroying his very viable path to being America’s first autocrat to playing second fiddle in the new state of Trumplandia.

All of that is very fantastical. I think, in the end, Trump is going to get away with even espionage. We’re going to punt this grievous, severe crisis down the road until 2024 -2025 and it will be Blue States who have to do a gut check about if they want to bend a knee to dingus Trump or not.

Good luck.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Either Trump Gets Away With Espionage Or We Probably Have a 2nd American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The last few days’ news on the Top Secrets at Mar-a-Lago front definitely indicate that things are coming to an alarming head soon. And we, as a nation, are going to have to confront the very real possibility that either Trump is let off the hook somehow or he’s indicted and he probably starts a civil war in an effort to protect himself personally.

Now, I can’t predict the future. But I do know that a lot of MAGA Republicans, maybe the majority of them, want to own the Libs and the “woke cancel culture mob” so much that they are willing to protect Trump, even if he was literally selling American secrets to the Saudis, Russians or North Koreans. There is going to come a point where they cross the Rubicon when it comes to even being willing to sacrifice their lives in the name of that malignant orange dingus.

And maybe this particular scandal is, unto itself, the thing that causes that to happen. The MAGA faithful do a gut check and they realize that Trump engaging in espionage is really just another thing they have to accept and rationalize away in the name of establishing as white Christian autocratic ethnostate. You know things aren’t going swell for your Republic when you realize that even if you did somehow neutralize Trump, there are a dozen other would be autocrats willing to jump in and finish the job Trump started.

And that, really, is kind of the political quandary we find ourselves in. Trump has accomplished his political and historical duty of being a transitional figure as we slide into autocracy. The problem is, of course, is Trump refuses to get out of the way and, as such, he grows more and more unstable and the country as a whole careens towards a very dark fate.

The reason is — if the Justice Department finds itself absolutely forced to hold Trump accountable and indicts him, I honestly have no idea how bad things could get. To date, Trump has not gone transactional outside of one speech right before the January 6th Insurrection. But if Trump honestly felt there was a real chance he would not only get indicted but booked and ultimately have a court trial he could really go crazy and start insinuating some pretty insane things. Everything from demanding Red States begin the process of leaving the Union to even maybe some sort of deranged demand that a Second Constitutional Convention be called. (Remember, given precedent, it’s very likely that MAGA state legislatures would name the members of any such convention and, by definition, it would go rouge and codify MAGA into any new Constitution.

What makes this particular situation with Trump so unqiue is it’s very, very serious and Trump isn’t POTUS anymore so he can’t hide behind the “only way you can do anything about me is impeachment” defense. Things are so bad that there is even a growing choirs of people who want Biden to pardon Trump over this matter for “the sake of the nation.” As I’ve written before, the only way I would ever support such a thing is if Trump, in exchange, agreed retire from political life.

Anyway, it’s at least possible that the moment of truth when it comes to Trump is upon us. If we ultimately we STILL don’t have the political will to do anything about Trump, then the next fork in the road will be at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. Either Trump and MAGA brazenly steal the 2024 election to the point that Blue States begin to leave the Union, or he wins out right and his second administration agenda is so radical that we definitely might have a 1860 type situation on our hands where Blues, seeing what Reds have in store for the country decide to preemptively bounce, causing a National Divorce and a civil war.

Or, put another way, the United States is so unstable at the moment that Trump getting a very well deserved indictment could be the catalyst that destroys the country. Or, if maybe not “destroys” it, definitely changes it in the sense that the National Divorce that I think Blues will do would be caused early by Reds. America is so bad politically at the moment that I don’t know if it will be Reds or Blues who ultimately demand a National Divorce.

I’m not VOX. I have no idea what to tell you. There are no easy solutions. Get out of the country? Invest in gold? Or maybe just figure out what you’re willing to suffer for and go from there. That’s one thing you’re going to need in the real world going forward, no matter what happens.

Of Russia, NATO and Estonia: Is America Too Divided To Defend The West?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The recent murder of Darya Dugin has caused a series of curious events in Russia. As I understand it, the Russians are now claiming that she was murdered by a Ukrainian spy who escaped to Estonia. Or something like that. I’m too lazy to look up the specifics to be sure.

Anyway, all of this gives me pause for thought because if the Russians are pointing fingers at both Estonia and Ukraine, things could go down a very dark path pretty quick. And, what really concerns me at the moment is the United States is so existentially divided — and the fucking fascist Republicans love Russia so much — that I don’t know if the United States is prepared to properly address any military action on the part of the Russians should such a thing happen.

I mean, is the United States prepared to go toe-to-toe with Russia if they decide to attack NATO member Estonia? Republicans love autocracy and Russia so much that after the initial shock wore off, the two sides would each go back into their echo chambers to the point that Biden wouldn’t be able to get the country on the same page as to what to do.

Or, put another way, the United States is so divided and so weak right now that we don’t have the political will to fully serve our purpose as the core of the post WW2 liberal order. And, in all honesty, the only thing that gives me any hope about this particular situation is Russia is so weak — especially after its on-going military debacle in Ukraine — that for the time being all this talk of going after Estonia or Ukraine is just that. Talk.

Russia has been proven to be so weak that they couldn’t do anything with Estonia even if they wanted to. Of course, you could say that Putin is no longer a rational actor and, as such, he might do something as bonkers as attack a NATO member over make up charges. Then my fears of a very divided America would be put to the test.

What I mean by all of this is America is so fucked up right now that there would be no assurances that we summon up the will to defend the free world from Russian aggression if it came to that. I say this especially in the context of the possibility that the fucking fascist Republicans might soon take the House again (at least).

If Russia attacked Estonia and the United States couldn’t get its act together enough to defend it properly in the context of Article 5 of NATO then it would principate the total collapse of the barely-hanging on post-WW2 liberal order. We would be thrown into a level of international chaos not seen since the Interwar period.

Let’s just hope the Russians don’t test America to see if it can still do the right thing, even if it wanted to.

There’s Only One Way I Would Support A Biden Pardon Of Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to hear some chatter amongst the more conservative factions of the anti-MAGA alliance that when it comes to Trump absconding with Top Secrets to Mar-a-Lago, Biden has an obligation to pardon Trump “for the sake of the nation.”

First, fuck that.

Second, there’s only one way I would agree to such a thing — Trump would have to, legally and in writing, agree to never run for POTUS again. If Biden was to pardon Trump for any reason, Trump would have to agree to go into political retirement, never to be heard from again.

Since he would never do that, I guess Trump won’t get a pardon.

I don’t think we really appreciate what a political monster Trump is. He’s not going anywhere and no matter how much Ron DeSantis or even Mike Pence wants him to get out of the way, he’s not going to. In fact, he would obviously rather burn the United States to the ground than do the right thing and shut up and retire.

Get ready.

So, Where Would This MAGA ‘Popular Uprising’ (Revolution) Start?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’ve reached the point where we’re seriously thinking about the idea of some sort of “civil war” or even “revolution.” But the question is, of course, where might it break out?

Arizona
I don’t know what the fuck is going on with this state, but they have issues. Their Republican Party is completely bonkers. It’s fascist and hateful and completely detached from reality. And it was in Arizona where there was an armed protest in front of an FBI office. So, it seems possible that if there was some random terroristic attack that it might happen in this state.
Florida
The thing I’ve learned is that while I think Florida is actually three states, when it comes to comes to MAGA, it’s one state. So, yeah, I could see there being a lot of seemingly random, politically motivative mass murder sprees involving AR-15s in this state.
Oregon
The thing we have to remember about this state is it’s actually two states — Portland and everything else. So, I could see some situation where the militia members of Oregon outside of Portland swoop into the city and decide to knock some Antifa heads. It would be very bloody.
Texas
This state is so big and so autocratic in its government that it almost goes without saying that we might see pre-civil war type bloodshed take place there.
Random Place
This would be just random MAGA weirdos who decided to die for the cause.